2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[The Rook]

4 hours ago, DWinzit said:

I hope if they really feel the need to draft someone this year they have one guy in mind they love that might fall to a reachable pick or what until the third round. No one is worth a 2nd rounder and I don't want them moving up giving up draft assets for just any of the QB's that drops to 8.

 

The way this team has drafted in the second round, they would be better off not picking and using it for trade bait. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

Edited April 22, 2021 by The Rook
spelling

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Sounds like you want a QB badly because it seems like you want them to successfully land someone.  The thing is it also then means you'd want to get rid of Kyle Allen or Heinicke badly, too because the two things go hand in hand in all likelihood.   Speaking of rumors, the one consistent part of this narrative has been they won't keep 4 QBs -- one will likely be discarded.

 

I am not married to Kyle Allen or Heinicke but at the same time I am not so sure someone like Kyle Trask is better.  But that's me.  I am perfectly cool with them landing no QBs in this draft.

 

The hit rate on non first round QBs isn't hot.  The odds are good whomever it is will be a bust.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/34139/why-its-so-hard-to-find-developmental-qbs-in-the-nfl-drafts-middle-rounds

Why it's so hard to find developmental QBs in the NFL draft's middle rounds

METAIRIE, La. -- Myth 1: Teams can readily find top-quality quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in the middle rounds of the NFL draft.

Myth 2: Teams such as the New Orleans Saints can draft a QB on Day 2 or 3, let him sit behind Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, then develop him to be their future starter.

Those ideas sound nice, especially for the Saints, who pick 28th and would have to pay a fortune to trade up for one of this year's top five prospects.

And it’s not impossible. Especially not with one of the greatest offensive coaches in league history in Sean Payton, who once helped discover and develop an undrafted Tony Romo with the Dallas Cowboys.

 

But the actual track record of teams selecting a quarterback outside of the top 40 picks, then adding some time and seasoning into the recipe to produce a future starter, is rarer than you might expect.

Over the past 15 years, only eight quarterbacks who weren’t drafted in the top 40 have won more than eight games as a starter for the team that chose them: Wilson (98), Prescott (42), Kirk Cousins (26), Nick Foles (21 in two stints with the Philadelphia Eagles), Trent Edwards (14), Chad Henne (13), Trevor Siemian (13) and Tarvaris Jackson (10).

Jimmy Garoppolo should also be mentioned as a success among this group, because he won two games for the New England Patriots after being selected 62nd overall in 2014 -- then won another 24 after being traded to the San Francisco 49ers. And 2020 second-rounder Jalen Hurts could join the list is he locks down the Eagles' starting job.

But you get the point. The idea of “drafting and developing” works only if you find the golden ticket.

Most Wins By NFL QBs Not Drafted In Rounds 1-2 Since 2006

ROUND	YEAR	QB	TEAM	TOTAL WINS	WINS WITH FIRST TEAM
*Win totals include two separate stints with their original team.
**Selected in the supplemental draft.
3	2012	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	98	98
4	2012	Kirk Cousins	Washington	51	26
4	2016	Dak Prescott	Cowboys	42	42
3	2012	Nick Foles	Eagles	28	21*
UD	2012	Case Keenum	Texans	27	2
6	2011	Tyrod Taylor	Ravens	24	0
UD	2009	Brian Hoyer	Patriots	16	0
UD	2007	Matt Moore	Cowboys	16	0
3	2007	Trent Edwards	Bills	14	14
7	2015	Trevor Siemian	Broncos	13	13
3	2016	Jacoby Brissett	Patriots	12	1
5	2010	John Skelton	Cardinals	8	8
3	2010	Colt McCoy	Browns	8	6
6	2019	Gardner Minshew	Jaguars	7	7
UD	2018	Kyle Allen	Panthers	7	6
3	2013	Mike Glennon	Buccaneers	6	5
6	2006	Bruce Gradkowski	Buccaneers	6	3
UD	2017	Nick Mullens	49ers	5	5
5	2011	T.J. Yates	Texans	4	4*
5	2007	Troy Smith	Ravens	4	1
**3	2011	Terrelle Pryor	Raiders	3	3
4	2013	Landry Jones	Steelers	3	3
5	2015	Brett Hundley	Packers	3	3
7	2008	Matt Flynn	Packers	3	3*
UD	2019	Devlin Hodges	Steelers	3	3
UD	2012	Austin Davis	Rams	3	3*
3	2011	Ryan Mallett	Patriots	3	0
UD	2017	Taysom Hill	Packers	3	0

“There’s just not that many people on the planet that ... have every box checked, so to speak,” said ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, who was part of a 2005 draft class that produced better than most. It included Charlie Frye (7-16 record in games started) in Round 3, Kyle Orton (42-40) in Round 4, Orlovsky (2-10) in Round 5, Derek Anderson (20-29) in Round 6, Matt Cassel (36-45) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (59-86-1) in Round 7.

“It’s a good question [why the successes are so rare],” Orlovsky said. “... And I try to tell people, there’s a reason Patrick Mahomes gets $40 million a year or Dak Prescott gets $140 million.

“While a person like me or a quarterback that’s drafted in Round 3, 4, 5, 6, they have some of the boxes checked, they don’t have all the boxes checked. And that box might just have the initial dash of that check. So physical talent does come into play. And how well you perform with that physical talent at the highest level on a consistent basis comes into play.

“While I could make a decision in 2.4 seconds, Matt Ryan, who’s more physically talented, makes the decision in 2.2 seconds. That is a career of a difference, essentially. And I know that sounds small and silly, but that’s just the reality. And while Matt does it 65 out of 66 snaps, I might do it 61 out of 66 snaps. That is a career of a difference. ... And that’s why the position is so hard.”

I do want them to draft a QB but it's up to them. 

[Skinsinparadise]

43 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

As a Michigan fan, I've been beating the Nico drum for over a year.

 

Cool, I stand corrected.  😀

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

I do want them to draft a QB but it's up to them. 

 

OK cool, which QB you hope is out the door?  Because the two points go hand in hand.  You want Kyle Allen gone or Heinicke?

[Fresh8686]

I've been big on Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace since last years draft and I turned around on Nico Collins after his senior bowl. Dude changed his body and got more explosive.

 

I've heard some concerning things about Seth Williams that could lead to inconsistency and unfulfilled potential. I like Josh Palmer though and think he's going to be better in the NFL than College.

 

I think Ihmir Marsette could be an interesting option in the late third or fourth who we've been linked to. Probably more of a Z reciever who can also handle PR/KR duties.

 

People are really excited about Simi Fehoko, but dude is 24 already and outside of that monstrous UCLA game and a couple other spots this season, where has he been? I still like his traits though.

 

Austin Watkins is another interesting bigger body reciever who is related to Sammy Watkins. He's decent athletically with a 4.5 40, however he had some nice routes in the senior bowl and could be a late round possibility.

 

If we want to look at late round 50/50 jump ball guys, you have to include Josh imatorbhebhe and then there are late rounder pure projects like Michael Strachan out of Charleston. 

 

 

[CurseReversed]

1 hour ago, The Sisko said:

I have a theory that due to the move toward smaller, faster defensive players to counter all the passing, we're on the verge of a return to the popularity of big, ball control type backs combined with solid defensive play. Other than at LB and S, we're kind of set up on the defensive side to go that route already. So as a way of counter-drafting the teams selling out to get a franchise QB, I'd like to see us to get big back. However, 19 or possibly even later in the first round is a bit early IMO. If we could trade down a few picks, take Collins/Davis and maybe do a trade up at the end of the first or very early second to get Harris, that would be ideal. I'd be fine with doing the trade down and getting Javonte Williams a bit later as well. From there, we'd then have enough picks to get a developmental QB and shore up OL/TE/WR and other areas where we're thin.

 

FWIW, I'm not saying the NFL is about to go back to the leather helmet era. Rather, I think it's a great tool to have in the toolbox to keep elite offenses off the field and grind opponents down. Teams will still have to be able to score a fair amount of points because the days of winning games 10-9 or 13-10 are pretty much over. However, having a Derrick Henry type player could provide for a lot of mismatches and buy us the time for a developmental QB to mature or make more significant moves down the road to get ourselves a true franchise QB if the guy we take this year doesn't work out.

This might end up being true on both sides of ball for us.  It sure seemed like Tampa thought the best strategy against us was running up the middle, and they were right.  It also seems like there are a lot of times it would be effective to go power O against other teams. 

 

This is why I am not too big on JOK or an undersized guy at LB or RB, in any of the top rounds.  They need a LB who can cover, sure, but mostly they need some beef in there.  Same thing on offense.  Deep threats and speed guys are great, but they need some beef in the backfield.    Its tough to find a LB with that size who can cover and a RB with size who can block and run routes.   I think they need to address at least one of these situations this year, and with a high pick.   I think Collins would be a good fit, but like you said, that would be more ideal with a trade back.  Parsons though, hes got size, speed and with that blitzing game, he would have the most impact.  It would be worth a small trade up to get him IMO.   If not a LB early, then a RB like Harris would be my BPA as far as having the most impact.  If they end up drafting LB early and  looking for an RB late, I hope they go for a power guy.

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Cool, I stand corrected.  😀

 

OK cool, which QB you hope is out the door?  Because the two points go hand in hand.  You want Kyle Allen gone or Heinicke?

Allen w/o hesitation if you are not counting Montez.  If your counting Montez, then him.  

[RabidFan]

2 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Allen w/o hesitation if you are not counting Montez.  If your counting Montez, then him.  

Allen could go on IR or at least PUP to start while rehabbing. 

[DWinzit]

15 minutes ago, The Rook said:

 

The way this team has drafted in the second round, they would be better of not picking and using it for trade bait. 

Lol. it has been a shame. They should be pulling quality starters in the second. Hope that changes this season, there is a lot of talent in that second round. None of which are QB's! 

 

6 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Allen w/o hesitation if you are not counting Montez.  If your counting Montez, then him.  

I have a hard time even taking Montez into consideration. I wouldn't blink if they cut him. He has done nothing and now talk of making him a TE while they already have other TE projects. 

[clskinsfan]

22 minutes ago, The Rook said:

 

The way this team has drafted in the second round, they would be better of not picking and using it for trade bait. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

They kind of did that with Sweat.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

They kind of did that with Sweat.

 

So we should trade 19,51 and next year's 2nd to move up for Lance?

[mistertim]

A 4.9 40 at under 200 pounds is pretty insane. And it wasn't just the 40. He tested in the 1-2 percentile in most major drills.

 

What the hell was he doing during the season when he opted out??

[clskinsfan]

6 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

So we should trade 19,51 and next year's 2nd to move up for Lance?

I am out on Lance. And have been pretty clear about it for months. I am not trading future draft capital for a guy who has barely played.....Now Fields? I am all in. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

I am out on Lance. And have been pretty clear about it for months. I am not trading future draft capital for a guy who has barely played.....Now Fields? I am all in. 

Eh, insert QB____ in there, it was more a tongue in cheek comment than anything else.

[clskinsfan]

Just now, mistertim said:

A 4.9 40 at under 200 pounds is pretty insane. And it wasn't just the 40. He tested in the 1-2 percentile in most major drills.

 

What the hell was he doing during the season when he opted out??

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Allen w/o hesitation if you are not counting Montez.  If your counting Montez, then him.  

 no I am not counting Montez.  Right now they have 3 QBs on their roster without Montez.  

26 minutes ago, RabidFan said:

Allen could go on IR or at least PUP to start while rehabbing. 

 

I guess they can try to do that even though supposedly he's going to be healthy for camp.  A couple of the beat guys who are covering this believe one of the Qbs will be discarded if they land a QB versus them trying to stash one on IR.   But who knows?  Will see. 

[actorguy1]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

36 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

I've been big on Rashod Bateman and Tylan Wallace since last years draft and I turned around on Nico Collins after his senior bowl. Dude changed his body and got more explosive.

 

I've heard some concerning things about Seth Williams that could lead to inconsistency and unfulfilled potential. I like Josh Palmer though and think he's going to be better in the NFL than College.

 

I think Ihmir Marsette could be an interesting option in the late third or fourth who we've been linked to. Probably more of a Z reciever who can also handle PR/KR duties.

 

People are really excited about Simi Fehoko, but dude is 24 already and outside of that monstrous UCLA game and a couple other spots this season, where has he been? I still like his traits though.

 

Austin Watkins is another interesting bigger body reciever who is related to Sammy Watkins. He's decent athletically with a 4.5 40, however he had some nice routes in the senior bowl and could be a late round possibility.

 

If we want to look at late round 50/50 jump ball guys, you have to include Josh imatorbhebhe and then there are late rounder pure projects like Michael Strachan out of Charleston. 

 

 

 

 

I liked Marsette and rated him higher in my WR rankings that I posted over the typical mock drafter, Brugler for example rated him as a 7th rounder.   Ditto Austin Watkins  

Edited April 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I guess they can try to do that even though supposedly he's going to be healthy for camp.  A couple of the beat guys who are covering this believe one of the Qbs will be discarded if they land a QB versus them trying to stash one on IR.   But who knows?  Will see. 

If they drafted a guy, could Allen or Heinicke bring any trade value? Also wondering if either could be included in a trade package? (no, I have not thought this out, just shooting from the hip with the question)

[Skinsinparadise]

A big receiver, mid to late rounds that I like is Trevon Grimes.  He's not a big time seperator but he does have his moments.

 

He's 6 '4, 220 pounds and runs a 4.49 with good agility scores.

 

He's sort of the forgotten one at UF considering all the production from Pitts and Toney.  Just like Terry was the forgotton one at Ohio State.  But like Terry if you consider context, Grimes' numbers were sneaky good.  9 TDs, 15.5 YPC, almost 600 yards.  I am not saying Grimes = Terry.  But they do share one thing in common which is they are both good athletes for the position, were overshadowed by other receivers at their college, yet their production was actually decent when you factor that in the soup.   He has good hands IMO, natural Z.

 

 

 

Edited April 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

Interesting trade idea from Bill Barnwell.  I don't know him but....for the Lance Lovers.

 

NFL Mock Draft with all trades for 2021: Bill Barnwell proposes deals for all 32 picks, including the Jaguars, Jets and Patriots (espn.com)

 

8. Carolina Panthers

Panthers get: 1-19, 2022 first-round pick, DT Matt Ioannidis
Washington Football Team gets: 1-8, 2022 fifth-round pick

The Panthers traded for Sam Darnold this month, which likely takes them out of the quarterback market here. If Trey Lance is still on the board at No. 8, teams in the bottom half of the first round might try to move ahead of the Broncos at No. 9 or the Patriots at No. 15 to get him.

Washington coach Ron Rivera already made one deal with his old team last year when he dealt for Kyle Allen; this time around, he would be moving up for his quarterback of the future. Lance would get to spend at least part of 2021 learning behind Ryan Fitzpatrick before taking over as the full-time starter the following year. The Panthers would move down 11 spots and get a potentially juicy first-rounder in 2022, given Fitzpatrick's relative inconsistency.

 

They would also get a wildly underrated defensive lineman in Ioannidis, who missed most of 2021 with a torn biceps. A rotation player alongside four first-rounders in Washington when everyone's healthy, Ioannidis would be a full-time starter for the Panthers, where he would reunite with former college coach Matt Rhule.

Edited April 22, 2021 by RWJ

[Ball Security]

I wouldn’t hate that trade.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, Ball Security said:

I wouldn’t hate that trade.

 

You would keep your full suite of picks this year outside of #19. You'd add a 2022 pick (albeit a 5th) to make up for the loss of the 2022 1st.

 

In the end, I always felt the trade to get to 7 or 8 would be 1, 3 and a 1st next year. I think a 1/2/1 would be too pricey. But in this scenario, Ionnidis would be valued as the 3rd round pick. Not a terrible deal, and it would get Tim Settle onto the field a bit more.

 

TDN for this trade:

1.8: Trey Lance, QB NDSU

2.51: Pat Friermuth, TE PSU

3.74: Spencer Brown, OT UNI

3.82: Tyler Shelvin, DT LSU

4.124: Divine Deablo, S VT

5.163: Monty Rice, LB Georgia

[method man]

11 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

You would keep your full suite of picks this year outside of #19. You'd add a 2022 pick (albeit a 5th) to make up for the loss of the 2022 1st.

 

In the end, I always felt the trade to get to 7 or 8 would be 1, 3 and a 1st next year. I think a 1/2/1 would be too pricey. But in this scenario, Ionnidis would be valued as the 3rd round pick. Not a terrible deal, and it would get Tim Settle onto the field a bit more.

 

TDN for this trade:

1.8: Trey Lance, QB NDSU

2.51: Pat Friermuth, TE PSU

3.74: Spencer Brown, OT UNI

3.82: Tyler Shelvin, DT LSU

4.124: Divine Deablo, S VT

5.163: Monty Rice, LB Georgia

 

Ion better be treated like a 2nd vs a 3rd. We have to remember he is on a great contract for 2 more years

[mistertim]

34 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

If they drafted a guy, could Allen or Heinicke bring any trade value? Also wondering if either could be included in a trade package? (no, I have not thought this out, just shooting from the hip with the question)

 

I can't imagine how. If you look at it objectively they're two UDFAs. One of them has been so-so but is coming off of a major season ending injury and the other has only started 2 games since 2015. Yes Heinicke played well vs TB, but a team isn't going to give up draft picks based on that.

[Warhead36]

The rumor now is that the 49ers are taking Lance at 3

 

Could we move up for Fields?