2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Lone Star Skin Fan]

I know I'm in the minority but I want them to pick Najee Harris at 19 if possible. Would be the most impactful offensive weapon sitting there. They struggled when Antonio went down last year and need another back. At 19 why not get the best prospect at his position. He's going to be a star. Would rather have that than 3rd or 4th best tackle, 4th or 5th best receiver or one of the crop of LB after Parsons is gone. Harris is close to being a sure thing and that's what you want in round one, especially when picking in the second half of the 1st round.

[RWJ]

54 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Beat reporters are hedging now. Vegas doesn't typically go wildly against leaks, they tend to flow with them.

Agree but isn't hedging a form of guessing?  I agreed with your assessment on the QB situation that I posted last night and stand by it.

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, RWJ said:

Agree but isn't hedging a form of guessing?  I agreed with your assessment on the QB situation that I posted last night and stand by it.

 

 

OK now i am confused.  Are we talking about who SF takes or what the WFT does?

[RWJ]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK now i am confused.  Are we talking about who SF takes or what the WFT does?

Sorry for the confusion.  WFT. 

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Sorry for the confusion.  WFT. 

 

OK, ok thought you were talking about SF.  For SF it looks muddier as far as the rumorville goes than it did earlier.

 

As for the WFT Keim practically has a billboard up:

 

A.  Trade up into the top ten but not top 5 if their guy drops.  More guess the one they like is Fields, some say Lance.  Haven't heard anything about Jones on that front.

 

B.  In the 2nd round, Mills.  Just read a Keim article where he doubled down on interest in Mills.  In that same article I read that Mills has had two ACL tears.  Wow.  I knew about one but not two.  

 

C.  Trask in the third.

 

I am keeping in the back pocket Mond.    As I've said recently the rumors tend to be more relaible as the draft gets closer.  Keim didn't say they like Mond but Mond made his article about QBs.  Similar thing happened right before FA with Fitzpatrick popping in it for the first time.  

Edited April 22, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[PartyPosse]

15 hours ago, The Rook said:

 The discussion was if KC was loaded with playmakers. 

You said "I don’t think KC is loaded with playmakers. They have Hill and Kielce and a bunch of question marks."  

Patrick Mahomes is also elite.  That is three top-3 for their position on the team.  CEH, Watkins, Robinson, Hardman may not be elite but they are playmakers.

 

We may just have to disagree on this one.🍻

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

 

Again, Watkins isn’t even there anymore and Hardman’s numbers are basically identical to Doctson’s. 
 

but agree about agreeing to disagree.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Do you have a source for that?  Everything I find quotes that 32.5" number.

 

Once upon a time I found a podcast where Joe Thomas himself mentioned it, but I can't find it since.  There's a lot repeating the old 32.5 number, but here's a few that list it as longer.

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/04/05/2021-nfl-draft-important-measurables-left-tackles-kc-chiefs/

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=7818

 

Joe Thomas was asked if rookie Austin Corbett could play Tackle for the Browns.  One of his points for why he couldn't was he thought Corbett wasn't lanky enough.  Corbett was measured with 33 1/8" arms. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/joe-thomas-austin-corbett-is-a-guard-not-a-tackle-0ap3000000942053

 

Thomas has always been critical of how they measure arm length, saying it's got some misleading measurements since they need to stop at the palm, where you actually make contact with the defender.

 

I wish I could find that podcast where Joe Thomas appeared.

 

 

[Dark Acre]

3 hours ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

I can't think of one great defense that did not have really good or great linebackers. Can you?  We saw last year that even with an elite DL a defense can get gutted with poor linebacker play.  And that's what happened to the WFT in a number of games.

 

So yeah I'd be all over Parsons if that can happen affordably.  But I'd be more interested in Fields, I can't believe he may slide as far as many believe.  

You're all over the place.  First, you can't think of a great D that doesn't/didn't have "really good" or "great" LBs.  "Really good" and "great" are different.  You seem to be saying "really good" can do it.  So we don't need "great".  Then you bemoaned our elite DL getting gutted by poor LB play, implying that average (or perhaps "adequate", which is situationally-relative) LB play would've avoided the gutting.  Pick a soapbox and make your stand, but don't make 3-card monte out of it.  I've been very clear that we don't need great LB'ing (though I'm not against it so long as we don't trade the farm for it) but that we need good-enough-to-cover-the-elite-DL's-back.  Think about this for a moment:  if we have LBs who can deal with the "holes" (no pun intended) in the DL, allowing the DL to dominate the rest of the NFL so bad that other teams forfeit, then we don't need great LBs because that would be a waste -- if an adequate LB can unleash the DL, what else is the great LB going to do that's not being done by the GOAT DL?  So then why throw assets we really need elsewhere to get a great LB who's going to be unnecessary beyond what an adequate LB would be?

 

"So yeah I'd be all over Parsons if that can happen affordably."  And you end up agreeing with what I said (assuming we have the same definition of affordably, which to me is not a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year).

[seantaylor=god]

3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

If we are unlucky, Newsome goes, Owusu-Koromoah goes, and Farley is the one who drops to 19.  That leaves us reaching for a tackle or LBer or WR or picking a CB with a history of fairly severe back injuries.

 

Farley is off of my board in the first round.  I'm not ****ing with a kid who already has a bad back at 19.  In the second round, OK, but not at 19.

 

I don't know about Teven Jenkins at 19.  He's a RT with rumors of maturity concerns.  

 

Thus my BPA pool at 19 is Etienne, Harris, Collins, Cosmi, and Bateman.  To me, Etienne and Harris are clearly the best players of that group.

That would definitely be a rough scenario.
I think Trevon Moehrig would be a nice option, but I wouldn’t love it.

 

WR could be in play at 19, assuming Chase, Waddle, and Smith were picked. Bateman could be a good pick there, and we could draft a slot later on.

 

I’m out on Zaven because I don’t see a great scheme fit for us. 

 

I’m solidly in the don’t draft a RB in round one, but amongst those options there is a lot to be said for RB, and 19 is very different than a top 10 pick.

 

I wouldn’t be mad about it. I think Etienne is a scheme fit based on what it appears we want from a RB. He’s a high character kid with a good work ethic and nice mix of tools/production and nice hands and quickness. He could essentially replace McKissic initially and gradually compete to be RB1 as our Christian McC. 
 

I’d much prefer a RB in the later rounds but you have to draft how the board falls.

I’d rather go OT but you can’t force it.

[DWinzit]

18 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK, ok thought you were talking about SF.  For SF it looks muddier as far as the rumorville goes than it did earlier.

 

As for the WFT Keim practically has a billboard up:

 

A.  Trade up into the top ten but not top 5 if their guy drops.  More guess the one they like is Fields, some say Lance.  Haven't heard anything about Jones on that front.

 

B.  In the 2nd round, Mills.  Just read a Keim article where he doubled down on interest in Mills.  In that same article I read that Mills has had two ACL tears.  Wow.  I knew about one but not two.  

 

C.  Trask in the third.

 

I am keeping in the back pocket Mond.    As I've said recently the rumors tend to be more relaible as the draft gets closer.  Keim didn't say they like Mond but Mond made his article about QBs.  Similar thing happened right before FA with Fitzpatrick popping in it for the first time.  

I hope if they really feel the need to draft someone this year they have one guy in mind they love that might fall to a reachable pick or what until the third round. No one is worth a 2nd rounder and I don't want them moving up giving up draft assets for just any of the QB's that drops to 8.

[Est.1974]

Just go and get Lance and be done with it. Ideal behind Fitz.

[RWJ]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

OK, ok thought you were talking about SF.  For SF it looks muddier as far as the rumorville goes than it did earlier.

 

As for the WFT Keim practically has a billboard up:

 

A.  Trade up into the top ten but not top 5 if their guy drops.  More guess the one they like is Fields, some say Lance.  Haven't heard anything about Jones on that front.

 

B.  In the 2nd round, Mills.  Just read a Keim article where he doubled down on interest in Mills.  In that same article I read that Mills has had two ACL tears.  Wow.  I knew about one but not two.  

 

C.  Trask in the third.

 

I am keeping in the back pocket Mond.    As I've said recently the rumors tend to be more relaible as the draft gets closer.  Keim didn't say they like Mond but Mond made his article about QBs.  Similar thing happened right before FA with Fitzpatrick popping in it for the first time.  

Didn't know that Mills had 2 ACL tears either.  With that, I'd go with Trask in the 3rd.

[The Sisko]

4 minutes ago, Lone Star Skin Fan said:

I know I'm in the minority but I want them to pick Najee Harris at 19 if possible. Would be the most impactful offensive weapon sitting there. They struggled when Antonio went down last year and need another back. At 19 why not get the best prospect at his position. He's going to be a star. Would rather have that than 3rd or 4th best tackle, 4th or 5th best receiver or one of the crop of LB after Parsons is gone. Harris is close to being a sure thing and that's what you want in round one, especially when picking in the second half of the 1st round.

I have a theory that due to the move toward smaller, faster defensive players to counter all the passing, we're on the verge of a return to the popularity of big, ball control type backs combined with solid defensive play. Other than at LB and S, we're kind of set up on the defensive side to go that route already. So as a way of counter-drafting the teams selling out to get a franchise QB, I'd like to see us to get big back. However, 19 or possibly even later in the first round is a bit early IMO. If we could trade down a few picks, take Collins/Davis and maybe do a trade up at the end of the first or very early second to get Harris, that would be ideal. I'd be fine with doing the trade down and getting Javonte Williams a bit later as well. From there, we'd then have enough picks to get a developmental QB and shore up OL/TE/WR and other areas where we're thin.

 

FWIW, I'm not saying the NFL is about to go back to the leather helmet era. Rather, I think it's a great tool to have in the toolbox to keep elite offenses off the field and grind opponents down. Teams will still have to be able to score a fair amount of points because the days of winning games 10-9 or 13-10 are pretty much over. However, having a Derrick Henry type player could provide for a lot of mismatches and buy us the time for a developmental QB to mature or make more significant moves down the road to get ourselves a true franchise QB if the guy we take this year doesn't work out.

[Warhead36]

14 minutes ago, The Sisko said:

I have a theory that due to the move toward smaller, faster defensive players to counter all the passing, we're on the verge of a return to the popularity of big, ball control type backs combined with solid defensive play. Other than at LB and S, we're kind of set up on the defensive side to go that route already. So as a way of counter-drafting the teams selling out to get a franchise QB, I'd like to see us to get big back. However, 19 or possibly even later in the first round is a bit early IMO. If we could trade down a few picks, take Collins/Davis and maybe do a trade up at the end of the first or very early second to get Harris, that would be ideal. I'd be fine with doing the trade down and getting Javonte Williams a bit later as well. From there, we'd then have enough picks to get a developmental QB and shore up OL/TE/WR and other areas where we're thin.

 

FWIW, I'm not saying the NFL is about to go back to the leather helmet era. Rather, I think it's a great tool to have in the toolbox to keep elite offenses off the field and grind opponents down. Teams will still have to be able to score a fair amount of points because the days of winning games 10-9 or 13-10 are pretty much over. However, having a Derrick Henry type player could provide for a lot of mismatches and buy us the time for a developmental QB to mature or make more significant moves down the road to get ourselves a true franchise QB if the guy we take this year doesn't work out.

There will always be a place for running the ball, but ultimately if you don't have at least a good QB you're screwed.

 

You can point to the Titans with Derrick Henry, but he didn't take off and they didn't start winning games until they started Ryan Tannehill who has been a fringe top 10 QB in the league since he took over in Tennessee. You can look at the other good backs on winning teams and see similar trends. Kamara had Drew Brees. Zeke has Dak. Chubb has Mayfield(not a star but definitely solid starter at the least). Jones has Rodgers. Cook has Cousins. Just about every good RB is on a team with at least above average if not better QB play. Its a lot easier to run the ball when teams have to at least respect your passing game.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, RWJ said:

Have you all seen this DB.  Poor man's Ronnie Lott.  Watch this guy hit and cover, legally mind you.  He's a projected day 3 pick.   JOK and Ford in the secondary!   

 

Hardest HITTING Safety in College Football 💥 || Pitt Safety Paris Ford 2019 Highlights ᴴᴰ - YouTube

 

Thoughts?

 

He's been talked about on and off for months including by me but his pro day was a disaster.  See tweet below.  He's in the 1%, 2% percentile compared to safeities in speed-agility.  I try not to obsess about speed-agility but I can't think of a safety I love who runs a 4.9 and is also under 200 pounds. 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Didn't know that Mills had 2 ACL tears either.  With that, I'd go with Trask in the 3rd.

 

Sounds like you want a QB badly because it seems like you want them to successfully land someone.  The thing is it also then means you'd want to get rid of Kyle Allen or Heinicke badly, too because the two things go hand in hand in all likelihood.   Speaking of rumors, the one consistent part of this narrative has been they won't keep 4 QBs -- one will likely be discarded.

 

I am not married to Kyle Allen or Heinicke but at the same time I am not so sure someone like Kyle Trask is better.  But that's me.  I am perfectly cool with them landing no QBs in this draft.

 

The hit rate on non first round QBs isn't hot.  The odds are good whomever it is will be a bust.

 

https://www.espn.com/blog/new-orleans-saints/post/_/id/34139/why-its-so-hard-to-find-developmental-qbs-in-the-nfl-drafts-middle-rounds

Why it's so hard to find developmental QBs in the NFL draft's middle rounds

METAIRIE, La. -- Myth 1: Teams can readily find top-quality quarterbacks like Tom Brady, Russell Wilson and Dak Prescott in the middle rounds of the NFL draft.

Myth 2: Teams such as the New Orleans Saints can draft a QB on Day 2 or 3, let him sit behind Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill, then develop him to be their future starter.

Those ideas sound nice, especially for the Saints, who pick 28th and would have to pay a fortune to trade up for one of this year's top five prospects.

And it’s not impossible. Especially not with one of the greatest offensive coaches in league history in Sean Payton, who once helped discover and develop an undrafted Tony Romo with the Dallas Cowboys.

 

But the actual track record of teams selecting a quarterback outside of the top 40 picks, then adding some time and seasoning into the recipe to produce a future starter, is rarer than you might expect.

Over the past 15 years, only eight quarterbacks who weren’t drafted in the top 40 have won more than eight games as a starter for the team that chose them: Wilson (98), Prescott (42), Kirk Cousins (26), Nick Foles (21 in two stints with the Philadelphia Eagles), Trent Edwards (14), Chad Henne (13), Trevor Siemian (13) and Tarvaris Jackson (10).

Jimmy Garoppolo should also be mentioned as a success among this group, because he won two games for the New England Patriots after being selected 62nd overall in 2014 -- then won another 24 after being traded to the San Francisco 49ers. And 2020 second-rounder Jalen Hurts could join the list is he locks down the Eagles' starting job.

But you get the point. The idea of “drafting and developing” works only if you find the golden ticket.

Most Wins By NFL QBs Not Drafted In Rounds 1-2 Since 2006

ROUND	YEAR	QB	TEAM	TOTAL WINS	WINS WITH FIRST TEAM
*Win totals include two separate stints with their original team.
**Selected in the supplemental draft.
3	2012	Russell Wilson	Seahawks	98	98
4	2012	Kirk Cousins	Washington	51	26
4	2016	Dak Prescott	Cowboys	42	42
3	2012	Nick Foles	Eagles	28	21*
UD	2012	Case Keenum	Texans	27	2
6	2011	Tyrod Taylor	Ravens	24	0
UD	2009	Brian Hoyer	Patriots	16	0
UD	2007	Matt Moore	Cowboys	16	0
3	2007	Trent Edwards	Bills	14	14
7	2015	Trevor Siemian	Broncos	13	13
3	2016	Jacoby Brissett	Patriots	12	1
5	2010	John Skelton	Cardinals	8	8
3	2010	Colt McCoy	Browns	8	6
6	2019	Gardner Minshew	Jaguars	7	7
UD	2018	Kyle Allen	Panthers	7	6
3	2013	Mike Glennon	Buccaneers	6	5
6	2006	Bruce Gradkowski	Buccaneers	6	3
UD	2017	Nick Mullens	49ers	5	5
5	2011	T.J. Yates	Texans	4	4*
5	2007	Troy Smith	Ravens	4	1
**3	2011	Terrelle Pryor	Raiders	3	3
4	2013	Landry Jones	Steelers	3	3
5	2015	Brett Hundley	Packers	3	3
7	2008	Matt Flynn	Packers	3	3*
UD	2019	Devlin Hodges	Steelers	3	3
UD	2012	Austin Davis	Rams	3	3*
3	2011	Ryan Mallett	Patriots	3	0
UD	2017	Taysom Hill	Packers	3	0

“There’s just not that many people on the planet that ... have every box checked, so to speak,” said ESPN analyst Dan Orlovsky, who was part of a 2005 draft class that produced better than most. It included Charlie Frye (7-16 record in games started) in Round 3, Kyle Orton (42-40) in Round 4, Orlovsky (2-10) in Round 5, Derek Anderson (20-29) in Round 6, Matt Cassel (36-45) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (59-86-1) in Round 7.

“It’s a good question [why the successes are so rare],” Orlovsky said. “... And I try to tell people, there’s a reason Patrick Mahomes gets $40 million a year or Dak Prescott gets $140 million.

“While a person like me or a quarterback that’s drafted in Round 3, 4, 5, 6, they have some of the boxes checked, they don’t have all the boxes checked. And that box might just have the initial dash of that check. So physical talent does come into play. And how well you perform with that physical talent at the highest level on a consistent basis comes into play.

“While I could make a decision in 2.4 seconds, Matt Ryan, who’s more physically talented, makes the decision in 2.2 seconds. That is a career of a difference, essentially. And I know that sounds small and silly, but that’s just the reality. And while Matt does it 65 out of 66 snaps, I might do it 61 out of 66 snaps. That is a career of a difference. ... And that’s why the position is so hard.”

[Warhead36]

WTF a 4.9 40? Breh there are like O Linemen running faster than that LOL.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Kind of have to take each simulator with a grain of salt. I went back to FanSpeak for the first time this year and did CBS Sports Josh Edwards updated draft board.

1. Christian Darrisaw, OT VT

2. Terrace Marshall, WR LSU

3. Brevin Jordan, TE Miami

3. Pete Werner, LB OSU

4. Trey Sermon, RB OSU

5. Alaric Jackson, G Iowa

7. Divine Deablo, S VT

7. Elerson Smith, DE UNI

 

I've seen those 7th rounders mocked in the 3-5 range pretty consistently, and Round 1 and 2 guys are likely gone before our pick. But that's maybe the best draft I've done yet. Okay, done posting simulator mocks. Sorry.

[illone]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I like him, too.  Join the club he's been the mid round guy I've been pushing.    I am guessing 3rd-4th. 

seems like good value for him. Another guy is Shi Smith. Just seems like we need a jump baller outside, but maybe just me as i’m not a huge believer in cam. 

14 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

WTF a 4.9 40? Breh there are like O Linemen running faster than that LOL.

 

no way is that his actual football speed. Dude runs 4.5 on the field. 

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Once upon a time I found a podcast where Joe Thomas himself mentioned it, but I can't find it since.  There's a lot repeating the old 32.5 number, but here's a few that list it as longer.

 

https://arrowheadaddict.com/2021/04/05/2021-nfl-draft-important-measurables-left-tackles-kc-chiefs/

https://nflcombineresults.com/playerpage.php?i=7818

 

Joe Thomas was asked if rookie Austin Corbett could play Tackle for the Browns.  One of his points for why he couldn't was he thought Corbett wasn't lanky enough.  Corbett was measured with 33 1/8" arms. 

https://www.nfl.com/news/joe-thomas-austin-corbett-is-a-guard-not-a-tackle-0ap3000000942053

 

Thomas has always been critical of how they measure arm length, saying it's got some misleading measurements since they need to stop at the palm, where you actually make contact with the defender.

 

I wish I could find that podcast where Joe Thomas appeared.

 

 

Guys, what a couple inches among friends?     

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, illone said:

seems like good value for him. Another guy is Shi Smith. Just seems like we need a jump baller outside, but maybe just me as i’m not a huge believer in cam. 

 

 

I am thinking they are likely preferring an outside receiver considering both Humphries and Samuel are better in the slot.  Although if a really good slot receiver falls, I'd bet they'd pounce.

 

But I am thinking outside Z type receivers:

 

Josh Palmer

Nico Collins

Tylan Wallace

Seth Williams

Simi Fehoko

Maybe Dyami Brown even though he's not a big dude

 

Guys like that.

 

I got some company i see on Josh Palmer.  Some on Tylan Wallace and Seth Williams.  But I think I am alone on Nico Collins?  Collins might be my favorite Z type receiver in the third round range after Tylan Wallace. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[PartyPosse]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I got some company i see on Josh Palmer.  Some on Tylan Wallace and Seth Williams.  But I think I am alone on Nico Collins?  Collins might be my favorite Z type receiver in the third round range after Tylan Wallace. 

As a Michigan fan, I've been beating the Nico drum for over a year.

[FootballZombie]

Dear God what are they not putting in the water in Pittsburgh

 

4.9! 5.5!

 

You can pull a guy out of the stands to put up those numbers. That is embarrassing. Maybe they are putting something in the water... Lead

 

 

Its so bad, I gotta half chalk it up to the no combine inverse effect. We were so used to getting unofficial 4.3s and 4.4s, that it makes sense that the pendulum would swing the other way as well.

But still... Woof.

 

Zombies would have a feast against that lack of speed. Nothing but sweet open field takedowns.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Some Bet MGM Over-Unders on draft positions. Being the first year, and the crapshoot that is the NFL draft I'm not sure how accurate these are or will be but a decent indicator.

 

Christian Darrisaw - 17.5

Micah Parsons - 13.5

Zaven Collins - 24.5

Rashod Bateman - 26.5

Jamie Newman - 170.5

Caleb Farley - 21.5

Davis Mills - 68.5

Mac Jones - 3.5

Justin Fields - 4.5

Kyle Pitts - 5.5

Trey Lance - 6.5

Penei Sewell - 6.5

Ja'Marr Chase - 6.5

Patrick Surtain - 10.5

DeVonta Smith - 11.5

Jaylen Wadde - 11.5

Jaycee Horn - 13.5

Najee Harris - 29.5

Alijah Vera-Tucker - 17.5

Travis Etienne - 32.5

 

I think the biggest slam dunk is Pitts ... if the Falcons pass on him, would be hard to see the Bengals passing on him.

Edited April 22, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[DWinzit]

9 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Some Bet MGM Over-Unders on draft positions. Being the first year, and the crapshoot that is the NFL draft I'm not sure how accurate these are or will be but a decent indicator.

 

Christian Darrisaw - 17.5

Micah Parsons - 13.5

Zaven Collins - 24.5

Rashod Bateman - 26.5

Jamie Newman - 170.5

Caleb Farley - 21.5

 

Weird they would include Newman in this group. No one expects him drafted until the 3rd or 4th

 

If WFT feels the need to draft a QB in the mid rounds I still say he has more untapped potential than the others