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2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread


zCommander

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Peter King and DJ notes about the draft.

 

https://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2021/03/07/nfl-draft-primer-quarterbacks-fmia-peter-king/?cid=fmiatw

 

The Lead: Draft Primer

 

Plenty of time to shuffle up team’s draft boards, but with increasingly important Pro Days beginning in earnest this week (vital this year because of no combine and no in-person meetings with prospects), and the draft 52 days away, I wanted to do a draft primer this week. With help from Jeremiah—you can watch him dissect a complicated year for quarterbacks in the video atop this column—I’ll try to give you the elementary look at what matters this year.

 

One other point about the importance of the 2021 draft: A look at the cap space on Over The Cap for the current season shows that exactly half the teams, 16 of 32, are either over the projected salary cap or have less than $10 million to spend. An average team will spend $8 million to $10 million to sign its rookies—so that shows you exactly how important the rookies are this year. Several teams will be forced to all but steer clear of significant free agents to build their rosters in 2021. Talk about combustible: There’s more of a need for rookies to contribute this year, and the knowledge base of those rookies will likely be lower than any year in memory.

 

I had one GM tell me Sunday his team is having trouble in three major draft areas:

• More players than ever—in this GM’s memory—have one season of successful college football only (such as Rousseau). The error rate on those players, because they’ve had less experience than normal prospects, is higher.

• With no on-campus scouting this year other than the Pro Day, the exposure to information sources is reduced. The GM said draft meetings so far have shown less information than ever in things like, How does he take coaching? What kind of teammate is he? What’s his work ethic?

• Limited medical information. Combine physical exams are notoriously thorough, sometimes discovering previously undiagnosed ailments. This GM told me his team won’t have trust in the exams till their own doctors can examine them—after the draft.

 

With all that, the show will go on. Final draft boards will be constructed over the next seven weeks, and Roger Goodell will step to a podium—in his New York-area basement or in Cleveland, site of the draft—and call out the picks. What you need to know about the landscape of the 2020 draft:

 

The quarterbacks are plentiful, as is the uncertainty. Five are likely to go in the first round, with Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence the likely number one pick to Jacksonville and BYU’s late-rising Zach Wilson likely number two to the Jets or some team trading up for him. After that, it’s a jumble. Ohio State’s Justin Fields is likely to go in the top 10, and the other two could go that high as well. North Dakota State’s Trey Lance was a terrific size-speed prospect against FCS competition in 2019, but played just one game in 2020, so some teams don’t know what make of him. And Mac Jones, great last fall in leading Alabama to the national title, could go as high as eight to Carolina. But he’s not an athlete and doesn’t fit the mold of a new-wave NFL passer.

 

“Jones is the most challenging evaluation for me,” Jeremiah said. “Ten years ago, lots of prospects were like him—accurate, great decision-making, poise in the pocket. He’s outstanding in those three. But the league is going in a different direction. You need guys who can create plays. If you can’t create and buy some time, or take off and run for a first down on third-and-five, it’s hard. You have a narrow path to winning consistently.”

 

Not a great defensive draft, at all. Jeremiah has 24 players with first-round grades, only 10 on defense. (For the record, four quarterbacks, four wideouts, three offensive linemen, two running backs, one tight end, three edge players, three linebackers, three corners, and one safety. No defensive tackles.) Jeremiah has Rousseau, Jaelan Phillips of Miami and Kwity Paye of Michigan atop his Edge rankings, but it doesn’t seem like any of them are locks.

What’s weird about this draft: It’s conceivable that the first eight players could be offensive players, and one of the unheralded corners—opt-out Virginia Tech athlete Caleb Farley or Alabama’s Patrick Surtain II—could be the first defender taken. “If you want a corner,” Jeremiah said, “you better get one in the first couple of rounds. It falls off after that.” Another son of an ex-NFLer, South Carolina cornerback Jaycee Horn (son of former wideout Joe Horn), should go by the end of round one.

 

Best position in the draft: Wide receiver (again). In the last two drafts, teams have picked a total of 30 wideouts in the first three rounds. This year, Jeremiah has 19 receivers with grades in the top three rounds. When you see the recent draft depth of the position—third-round wideouts from the last three years: Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson—I begin to think NFL teams should start treating the receiver position like running backs. Don’t waste a high pick on one; you can get a good one in the seventies, eighties, nineties overall.

“It’s almost the same every year now, Jeremiah said. “Last year, I had a record number of guys with top-three-round grades [27]. Not as much this year, but so many good options in the second, third, fourth rounds.” Most draft boards will have LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle among the top 12 picks. Kadarius Toney of Florida is Jeremiah’s fourth first-round wideout, but his favorite wideout at a bargain price (mid-round two) is Mississippi’s Elijah Moore: “There were games that nobody could cover him.”

 

Surest position at the top? Might be offensive line. It’s not deep, but either Rashawn Slater of Northwestern or Penei Sewell of Oregon (both were 2020 opt-outs) could be opening-day left tackles in September. They should both go in the top six or eight. Slater played well against Ohio State and ace edge-rusher Chase Young in their 2019 meeting. Alijah Vera-Tucker (USC) could play guard or tackle comfortably, and Christian Darrisaw (Virginia Tech) and Jalen Mayfield (Michigan) could crack the end of the first round.

 

The Unicorn. Florida tight end Kyle Pitts is the first player at his position in 43 years of Mel Kiper’s draft-grading to crack the top five overall prospects. Whether he goes that high is a matter of taste, but a smart team could use him as an in-line tight end, running routes out of the slot, split wide, and as an athletic motion man. (Remember Rob Gronkowski’s Jet Motion Super Bowl TD, when he was untouched by any defenders?) So Pitts may be drafted as a tight end but could end up playing all over the map. “If he had ‘WR’ next to his name,” Jeremiah said, “he’d be a top 15 pick.”

 

Run-and-chase linebackers are in style. Jeremiah loves Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah of Notre Dame, and sees Micah Parsons (Penn State) and Zaven Collins (Tulsa) as first-round ‘backers. “He’s such an exciting player,” Jeremiah said of Owusu-Koramoah. “He’s one of the guys in this draft I can’t wait to see—both how he’ll be used and how many plays he makes all over the field.”

 

Running backs high in the draft are out of style, but not to Jeremiah. He loves Clemson’s Travis Etienne and Alabama’s Najee Harris, and the prospect who might be his favorite player in the draft (encompassing value as well as talent) is a likely second-rounder, North Carolina’s Javonte Williams. Jeremiah thinks Williams could end up being the best back in the draft. “Not often a running back is the leader of your football team,” Jeremiah said, “but Javonte Williams was at North Carolina.”

 

“I know one thing,” Jeremiah said near the end of our conversation. “If you’re a team or if you’re a fan, you’d better exercise patience after the draft this year. There’s just too much we’re not going to know about too many players.”

 

With the draft dominating news cycles increasingly from November to April, that’s not something draft-crazy fans are going to want to hear. But it sure sounds like the truth in 2021.

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4 hours ago, KDawg said:

The LB to keep an eye on is Werner, in my opinion.

 

I'm going through the three OSU linebackers now and just watched the Penn State game and wasn't really impressed with any of them.  Surprisingly competitive game, mostly because the OSU D got absolutely dominated by #5.  But it was a tough day for those linebackers too.

 

TBH I thought Werner looked hesitant and somewhat uncomfortable playing downhill in traffic and heading into contact.  Looked half-hearted on some of his force/spill attempts, and he also gave up some big runs through his gaps.  He's not a great or forceful tackler, and I thought he was disappointing in his effectiveness as a blitzer.  He's quick and balanced and doesn't take a ton of false steps and he has decent instincts and showed strong hand work to get off blocks at times, so I see why you like him.  He's the cleanest of the three OSU backers, if not the most talented.  But I thought he was just a guy and that he didn't play with much toughness or dynamism.

 

Browning looked like the most dynamic of the three because he is big and had the most diverse and difficult responsibilities.  He looked like the best blitzer and was definitely the best in man coverage and had the best range on his zones.  But he's got bad balance and noisy feet with lots of false steps.  The disguised zones they kept running for him made him look uncomfortable and took him out of plays.  He doesn't appear to be very instinctive and doesn't seem like a good block shedder like Werner.  He's an overhang defender, which is valuable for base d centric schemes, but he's not going to be effective playing a lot of snaps in the stack.  Just won't make enough plays.

 

TBH, I didn't really like any of the three that much.  They're OK, but flawed.  If I had to pick one, it would be Browning because I think he's tougher and more aggressive than Werner.

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30 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

TBH, I didn't really like any of the three that much.  They're OK, but flawed.  If I had to pick one, it would be Browning because I think he's tougher and more aggressive than Werner.

Agreed, they are all flawed.IMO Borland doesn't belong on any ones board. There have been a lot of mocks showing WFT taking Browning in the 2nd or 3rd. I don't see him as a 2nd value, he plays very hot and cold. When he is good, he looks like a star, the next series he looks atrocious. I don't want that on the team. Werner is steady and decent at most everything. I take him if I need him in the 3rd but may belong more in the 4th. I like your guy McGrone in the late 3rd beginning of the 4th over Browning

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3 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

I'm going through the three OSU linebackers now and just watched the Penn State game and wasn't really impressed with any of them.  Surprisingly competitive game, mostly because the OSU D got absolutely dominated by #5.  But it was a tough day for those linebackers too.

 

TBH I thought Werner looked hesitant and somewhat uncomfortable playing downhill in traffic and heading into contact.  Looked half-hearted on some of his force/spill attempts, and he also gave up some big runs through his gaps.  He's not a great or forceful tackler, and I thought he was disappointing in his effectiveness as a blitzer.  He's quick and balanced and doesn't take a ton of false steps and he has decent instincts and showed strong hand work to get off blocks at times, so I see why you like him.  He's the cleanest of the three OSU backers, if not the most talented.  But I thought he was just a guy and that he didn't play with much toughness or dynamism.

 

Browning looked like the most dynamic of the three because he is big and had the most diverse and difficult responsibilities.  He looked like the best blitzer and was definitely the best in man coverage and had the best range on his zones.  But he's got bad balance and noisy feet with lots of false steps.  The disguised zones they kept running for him made him look uncomfortable and took him out of plays.  He doesn't appear to be very instinctive and doesn't seem like a good block shedder like Werner.  He's an overhang defender, which is valuable for base d centric schemes, but he's not going to be effective playing a lot of snaps in the stack.  Just won't make enough plays.

 

TBH, I didn't really like any of the three that much.  They're OK, but flawed.  If I had to pick one, it would be Browning because I think he's tougher and more aggressive than Werner.

 

I disagree here. Browning has edge/outside written all over him but very little in regards to being an interior backer. Werner has interior backer written all over him. He is aggressive downhill in every cut up I've seen of him and he has tremendous sideline to sideline speed. 

 

Borland is too slow for any of it. 

 

But I think you and I tend to differ philosophically on what traits good backers possess. You love JOK, I think he's a traity guy but best on the outside and not on the interior. So I think this disagreement is more about what we prefer in a guy rather than fundamental differences of opinion. 

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5 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Best position in the draft: Wide receiver (again). In the last two drafts, teams have picked a total of 30 wideouts in the first three rounds. This year, Jeremiah has 19 receivers with grades in the top three rounds. When you see the recent draft depth of the position—third-round wideouts from the last three years: Terry McLaurin, Michael Gallup, Tre’Quan Smith, Diontae Johnson—I begin to think NFL teams should start treating the receiver position like running backs. Don’t waste a high pick on one; you can get a good one in the seventies, eighties, nineties overall.

“It’s almost the same every year now, Jeremiah said. “Last year, I had a record number of guys with top-three-round grades [27]. Not as much this year, but so many good options in the second, third, fourth rounds.” Most draft boards will have LSU’s Ja’Marr Chase and Alabama’s DeVonta Smith and Jaylen Waddle among the top 12 picks. Kadarius Toney of Florida is Jeremiah’s fourth first-round wideout, but his favorite wideout at a bargain price (mid-round two) is Mississippi’s Elijah Moore: “There were games that nobody could cover him.”

 

This is something that I thought about the other day actually. If I was drafting high I would be very cautious about taking a WR due to the positional depth through the draft that the WR position seems to be getting more and more of. 

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38 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

I would not be upset if we drafted Bateman with our 1st. Is he the clear-cut 4th WR in the draft? He looks like a stud, especially catching all those wobbly passes from his QB lol. 

 

 

Probably going to stay the 4th ranked WR from now until Draft time.  Depends on what you want out of your WR, and where you want them to line up.  I'm sure there are some teams whose grades, based on their scheme, don't have that much of a gap between him and half a dozen WR's behind him.  Then some other teams may not be rating Slots high, and Bateman would stand out from the crowd.

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Bateman is one of those guys who will outperform his college numbers in the nfl, especially with a QB better than Tanner Morgan who he had no rhythm with this year IMO. However, I think I’d prefer if we found an outside receiver in FA and drafted a slot in the 2nd-4th round. 

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I have been watching LBers over the past couple of days. I mentioned KJ Britt a couple of days ago as a mid round steal. I also really love Jabril Cox on the strong side. Outstanding coverage skills for how big he is. Would probably cost us our 2nd rounder though. 

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30 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

Bateman is one of those guys who will outperform his college numbers in the nfl, especially with a QB better than Tanner Morgan who he had no rhythm with this year IMO. However, I think I’d prefer if we found an outside receiver in FA and drafted a slot in the 2nd-4th round. 

 

 

I am not as high as @stevemcqueen1 on Bateman but I am close.  My main difference is there are 4 receivers to me that are really close to Bateman where I don't feel that anxious to take Bateman at 19.    But I'll say Bateman is probably one of the more complete receivers in this draft.   I wouldn't hate it if that's what they did in the first. 

 

 

 

 

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26 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CBS released their 3 round mock today. Have us taking:

Darrisaw at 19

Terrace Marshall at 51

Chazz Surratt at 74 

And Kenneth Gainwell at 83.

 

That is a damn solid draft for us if it came to be. 

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/three-round-2021-nfl-mock-draft-four-quarterbacks-go-in-top-eight-picks-saints-falcons-land-qbs-on-day-2/

That’s not the only mock where I’ve seen Surratt at 74.  He’s pretty raw at the position, right.  Didn’t he come in as a QB?  Wonder if this is someone that jumps off the page for JDR as someone he can mold.

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36 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

I have been watching LBers over the past couple of days. I mentioned KJ Britt a couple of days ago as a mid round steal. I also really love Jabril Cox on the strong side. Outstanding coverage skills for how big he is. Would probably cost us our 2nd rounder though. 

Cox is one my favorites in the draft and yes doubt he makes it out of the 2nd. He is outstanding in coverage, solid tackler and works through trash well. Immediate impact for our def. I really would like WFT to draft either Zaven Collins or Cox. Britt is okay, is a good leader on the field and a hard hitter. They could work into a decent tandem down the line. 

 

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On 3/5/2021 at 2:16 PM, HigSkin said:

They sure are looking at a lot of later round DB's and safety's

 

 

 

Every year I find myself wishing we had some database matching interviews with actual draftees. I never know how much, if any, correlation there actually is. 

 

 

 

On 3/5/2021 at 4:19 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I can't seem to find much to watch Freiermuth to make a decision about him, the one game I did watch was versus Ohio State and man was Chase Young unstoppable in that one.  I love Brevin Jordan but am guessing he's gone in the third.  Ditto Tremble.

 

That's insane, that being said, you can immediately change it to 4.29. Historically non-combine times when compared to the combine average out to about .05 seconds faster than actual combine times (which are fundamentally more accurate due to the laser timing mixed with adjustments that are made after comps evaluate the start/movement etc. But good lord, even 4.29, it's just insane. 

 

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2 hours ago, Fresh8686 said:

Bateman is one of those guys who will outperform his college numbers in the nfl, especially with a QB better than Tanner Morgan who he had no rhythm with this year IMO. However, I think I’d prefer if we found an outside receiver in FA and drafted a slot in the 2nd-4th round. 

Agreed, if he has Toney above Bateman, that's just high comedy, hell Toney over Rondale Moore is also high comedy. These guys are gonna be eating it a few years from now when the only top 4 guy that deserved it for a bunch of them ends up being Chase (maybe Smith, we'll see). If Bateman, and Moore end up going outside the top 4 of the position, teams are going to be getting steals exactly the same way they did with AJ Brown, DK Metcalf, and my huge miss in mega outlier Terry McLaurin two years ago. Then again they totally bottled it last year as well, taking Ruggs over Lamb, and Jefferson. I'll own being off with Reagor (had him ahead of Jefferson), but I nailed Lamb last year, and remain utterly baffled that not only did Ruggs go way ahead of him, but that Jeudy did as well and that a pile of teams with WR needs either passed entirely on Lamb, or took the wrong guy. I still can't understand how the heck Dallas always has elite mega WR's fall to them (Dez Bryant a decade ago, Lamb last year). They really learned their lesson passing on Randy Moss for a scrub. The rest of the NFL seems to just not get it at WR. We'll see if that continues this year. 

 

 

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For those interested, I’ve heard really good things about Jabril Cox’s character on a Brugler podcast. He’s super focused on improving and testing himself against better competition, which is why he transferred to LSU from North Dakota. 
 

I feel like if people also watched some 2019 games on Bateman they’d see more to feel better about, Minnesota’s coaching this year was kinda ass. The kids got great football awareness and he has a plan for near every route that takes into account the unique situation at play from down to down. He’s a synergy guy with a strong foundation that’s suited to the NFL but he isn’t particularly elite in any single facet. Justin Jefferson was kind of like that for me last year. I made sure to watch 2018 tape when he wasn’t as savvy with his route speed variance and I saw he had an extra gear that people seemed to have missed. There was more there for both of them, albeit in different ways that I think changes where you can project a guys ceiling and the jump he can make in the nfl. 
 

One thing I’m super interested in is identifying the foundation needed at different positions to make a leap in the NFL rather than hitting a wall. Plus, the unique mitigating factors that held back a player in college, like Terry and Antonio having limited snaps or Ladarius Sneed from the Chiefs playing mostly Safety rather than CB in College or maybe Tylan Wallace in this class being limited by his coach to a single side of the field. 

 

Who are the guys with a great foundation/ethic and certain threshold level traits plus those mitigating factors? 

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5 hours ago, KDawg said:

 

I disagree here. Browning has edge/outside written all over him but very little in regards to being an interior backer. Werner has interior backer written all over him. He is aggressive downhill in every cut up I've seen of him and he has tremendous sideline to sideline speed. 

 

Borland is too slow for any of it. 

 

But I think you and I tend to differ philosophically on what traits good backers possess. You love JOK, I think he's a traity guy but best on the outside and not on the interior. So I think this disagreement is more about what we prefer in a guy rather than fundamental differences of opinion. 

 

My main complaint with Werner is that he wasn't a tone setter, and I didn't think he was a strong tackler.  The field vision looks solid and he has good short area quickness and the athleticism to play good underneath zones.  Pretty good hands.  But he struck me as having a passive style.  And looking at his stats, he doesn't have a ton of big plays in his career history.  I only really watched all of the snaps in the PSU game though, so I'll look at his other games to see if he was more aggressive in them.

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Left Tackle in the Draft is now my betting favorite for 1st rounder.  It appears we're Franchise Tagging Scherff, and drafting a LT helps make "your strengths stronger" which is a roster building philosophy Rivera has talked about.

 

My vote is one of these three: Slater, Jenkins, Darrisaw.  Don't like Mayfield as much.  Haven't watched AVT, but most here seem to think he's far better at Guard than LT.  That is unless the coaches feel strongly like 2nd round has a lot of workable talent for them at #51.

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3 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Left Tackle in the Draft is now my betting favorite for 1st rounder.  It appears we're Franchise Tagging Scherff, and drafting a LT helps make "your strengths stronger" which is a roster building philosophy Rivera has talked about.

 

My vote is one of these three: Slater, Jenkins, Darrisaw.  Don't like Mayfield as much.  Haven't watched AVT, but most here seem to think he's far better at Guard than LT.  That is unless the coaches feel strongly like 2nd round has a lot of workable talent for them at #51.

As well RR’s desire for strong trenches.  I think LT and to a lesser extent LG are the betting favorites.  Probably helps the odds that I think it’s pretty likely we target WR, corner and LB in FA...

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3 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Left Tackle in the Draft is now my betting favorite for 1st rounder.  It appears we're Franchise Tagging Scherff, and drafting a LT helps make "your strengths stronger" which is a roster building philosophy Rivera has talked about.

 

My vote is one of these three: Slater, Jenkins, Darrisaw.  Don't like Mayfield as much.  Haven't watched AVT, but most here seem to think he's far better at Guard than LT.  That is unless the coaches feel strongly like 2nd round has a lot of workable talent for them at #51.

I agree. Also if you look at Hurney draft career that is one position he scouts very well. Jordan Gross, Evan mathis, Trevelle Wharton, Geoff Schwartz. I would be very happy with a trade back. 

 

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Rhamonde Stevenson, I've talked up on and off since the college season.  Poor man's N. Harris?  He along with J. Williams and Sermon to me interesting power runner type possibiities.

 

Stevenson for a big dude has some good agility, elusiveness and wiggle.  Unlike a lot of tallish, big running backs I like that he doesn't run that high/upright.  Good contact balance.   7.2 YPA.  No fumbles.  Not much tread on the tires.  

 

 

https://ninernoise.com/2021/02/05/sf-49ers-draft-rhamondre-stevenson-running/

Multiple team sources named Stevenson as one of the standouts from this year’s Senior Bowl week. Here’s what one director of college scouting said about Stevenson: “He’s a 235-pound downhill runner who can run routes, pass blocked well and caught it clean out of the backfield. Workhorse-type back.” Given Stevenson’s skill set as a power runner who can also contribute as a receiver, he is in the running to be a second-round pick in the 2021 NFL Draft thanks to his strong week in Mobile.

 

 

 

 

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8 hours ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

Left Tackle in the Draft is now my betting favorite for 1st rounder.  It appears we're Franchise Tagging Scherff, and drafting a LT helps make "your strengths stronger" which is a roster building philosophy Rivera has talked about.

 

My vote is one of these three: Slater, Jenkins, Darrisaw.  Don't like Mayfield as much.  Haven't watched AVT, but most here seem to think he's far better at Guard than LT.  That is unless the coaches feel strongly like 2nd round has a lot of workable talent for them at #51.

 

It's been my betting favorite for a long time, I'd even put money that we take one in the first or 2nd -- more likely the first.  I'd put money that it will be a LT and WR in rounds 1-2 in whatever permutation.  Beat writers are giving that vibe.  And listening to Rivera/Hurney in particular they seem to be heavy in the build your team from the trenches school. 

 

I'd guess the MLB comes from FA and not the first two rounds of this draft. 

 

 

 

 

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Appears many of us are on the same page as drafting offense mostly early and defense later.

1st -LT in the first with Darrisaw and Jenkins possibly being who they are eyeing but could go Cosmi, Eichenberg, Radunz...... If they like a bunch of them they will hope to trade down t pick up a 3rd or 4th rounder

2nd and 3rd and 4th- offensive weapon -WR, slot, bigger RB or TE 

From the second pick in the 3rd round back they will sprinkle in a LB's a DB's and an edge

 

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