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2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I've said multiple times I'd be cool with Etienne, he was one of my favorite backs to watch over the years.  I've posted articles about what type of dude Etienne is here among other things.  You've compared some of his game to Dalvin Cook.  I was a big Cook guy before that draft.   I just have Najee Harris a half a peg or so over Etienne so if I had to choose between the two, I'd choose Harris.  But I'd be cool with either. 

 

You're one of the only posters backing me up on Etienne, and I appreciate that someone else likes him so I don't feel Robinson Crusoed on him.  Etienne seems to be more highly regarded in other draftnik communities, as I see him ranked as RB1 more often than Najee and Javonte Williams.

 

I'm kind of in the same boat regarding him and Najee.  It's a 1A and 1B situation for me.  My head says Etienne but my gut says Najee.  I feel a little bit married to Najee since I've been such a big fan of him the past two years.  But if I were the GM of the WFT and my life depended on the outcome of the choice between them, I would probably choose Etienne.  Ever since I read that Najee has a bit of a star-vibe and an entourage, that's kind of offered an unfavorable contrast to Etienne.  Etienne is as low maintenance as it gets for a superstar college runningback playing for a blue blood program.  I think he's a better personality fit here, and I think he's a little bit better of a schematic fit too.  I think he's a better passing game weapon and I think he's better suited to excel in an outside zone heavy run game.  He's a better version of Gibson and I think you can stream the two of them without having to change the offense at all or having any real let-up on the D from series to series.  It would be a pounding attack.

 

I'm more of a traditionalist on the value of RBs.  There are market inefficiencies that can be exploited at the position such that you can get good rotation players in late rounds at higher rates than other positions.  But there are also market inefficiencies in how the best players at the position are valued.  They tend to directly contribute an enormous amount to wins because they are big time scorers, and scoring is the name of the game.  They cover up flaws in your team in a way that is pretty much only topped by QBs.  But their salaries are much lower and they are generally cheaper in the draft.  Their shelf lives are shorter, but honestly not a whole lot shorter than the other elite athlete positions like CB and edge rusher.  Getting five seasons of high powered offensive production is worth a first round pick for me.  Christian McCaffrey gets you almost as many AV in three years as Taylor Lewan gets you in seven, but people think the LT is exponentially more valuable than the RB?

 

I actually think Etienne or Harris are BPA in almost any realistic scenario at 19.  They are better than Darrisaw and Owusu-Koromoah, that was kind of hammered home for me by watching how Bama and Clemson pounded Notre Dame.  Surtain, Horn, Newsome, and Pitts/Chase/Smith are the only guys who might just be straight up better players than Najee/Etienne, and I'm not sure about the corners.

 

As for trading up for Pitts, I'm against it in principle.  I don't want to trade up early into the first round for any position other than QB because I don't think any other position can singularly produce better value than multiple early round drafted players.  But the prospect of it is exciting.  I think he's a Calvin Johnson type of talent and I think he'd at least pan out into a superstar player at his position, regardless of opportunity cost.  I'd feel more comfortable trading up for him than for Trey Lance truth be told.  A big Lance trade carries an ulcer-inducing level of risk.  I don't really trust this staff with making a franchise QB out of a prospect like Lance, and I think the move carries way too much of a chance that it gets everyone fired and we have to start a whole new rebuild over again from scratch.  That's a nightmarish outcome to me.

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5 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You're one of the only posters backing me up on Etienne,

 

Nah, you have more on your side than you realize buddy. Sometimes I just don't feel like weighing in though. For me, it's hard to grasp how anyone that watches Etienne, Harris or my preference Williams can argue they're not difference makers or BPA at their position. They're all studs IMO. I'd take any one of them and feel good about it.

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11 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

Nah, you have more on your side than you realize buddy. Sometimes I just don't feel like weighing in though. For me, it's hard to grasp how anyone that watches Etienne, Harris or my preference Williams can argue they're not difference makers or BPA at their position. They're all studs IMO. I'd take any one of them and feel good about it.

I wouldn’t take Williams or Etienne in the first, they aren’t as elite in MY view as I believe Harris is. But that’s kind of preferential.

 

I believe Williams and Etienne are both fantastic backs that are going to make a difference for whatever team they land on, though. And for cheaper than Najee.

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27 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think Allen having a season ending major injury was a bit of a factor as well.

You think the coaches have more confidence in Allen than Heinicke but because of the injury they decided to just tender Allen?

Why not just put the 2nd round

tender on Heinicke then?

 

 

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3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I dont disagree that Etienne, Harris and Williams are all 1st round talents. For me it is about the value of the position though. We have a RB that is a good candidate to break out this year in Gibson. Round one RB's are usually your bell cow. I cant see the team wanting to move on from Gibson after the season he had last year. Now if Turner is interested in running some kind of two back offense than by all means do it. But I just cant see us picking a RB in round one this year.  

 

It's not about wanting to move on from Gibson.  Najee and Etienne played in backfield rotations in college and they'll need to play in them in the NFL too.  I think you have to use a backfield rotation to be successful over the course of a full season + playoffs.  Our QB situation isn't great.  But we can still run a high powered offense to go with a playmaking defense if we add dominant playmakers at RB and WR.

 

Imagine having to defend an offense with Gibson, McLaurin, Samuel, Rondale Moore, and Travis Etienne where Etienne is my slowest player.  That group would be legitimately scary.  Especially in weeks where all of them are healthy and available.  But the reality is that most weeks they're not all going to be available so I have to build in redundancy everywhere and get the most versatile and dangerous playmakers that I can.

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Taking a RB in round 1 is such a bad idea. Like so so bad. It's a complete waste of a high asset when you can always find a good RB later. If they do that then nothing has truly changed with this franchise. The only exception is if it's a CMC like talent which nobody is in this draft.

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22 minutes ago, redskinss said:

You think the coaches have more confidence in Allen than Heinicke but because of the injury they decided to just tender Allen?

Why not just put the 2nd round

tender on Heinicke then?

 

That would be my guess. They went to Heinicke as a last resort when they had nobody else who could even play; they gave up a draft pick to bring Allen in. Allen was playing well when he was injured but there's no way to know whether he'd be ready for this season.

 

I think they gave Heinicke a modest extension because he played well vs TB and because the only other QBs who were on the roster at the time were an injured Allen, a Smith who they almost certainly knew at the time they would be releasing soon, and a Montez who couldn't even crack the backup position until there was literally nobody else in front of him.

 

So my guess would be the coaches have more confidence in a healthy Allen than a healthy Heinicke, but since Allen isn't healthy that's sort of out the window.

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I think Harris or Etienne are fine RBs, but spending a top 20 pick on the position itself bothers me. You're getting hit more than any other position and it's extremely dependent on the OL. Almost every RB is one injury away from losing their burst, which could make the player obsolete. Plus it seems like we spend more picks on RBs between rounds 2-4 than any other team in the NFL. 

 

I feel like BPA should be applied to every other position besides RB and QB (because teams overreach on them all the time). There's way too much working against a RB in the modern NFL. 

 

Edit: I'm saying this full well knowing that either of these two RBs have a decent shot at being BPA. 

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3 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

Taking a RB in round 1 is such a bad idea. Like so so bad. It's a complete waste of a high asset when you can always find a good RB later. If they do that then nothing has truly changed with this franchise. The only exception is if it's a CMC like talent which nobody is in this draft.

Blindly? Yes. As a BPA after the best tackles are off the board and the top O/D players are gone and only a small handful of blue chip prospects left on the board? No.

 

Context matters. I’ll say this again and again and again and again.

 

Blanket statements are among the biggest culprits of faulty logic that have ever come about. 
 

Also, “nothing has changed about this franchise”? Have you watched this team’s evolution? 

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9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

That would be my guess. They went to Heinicke as a last resort when they had nobody else who could even play; they gave up a draft pick to bring Allen in. Allen was playing well when he was injured but there's no way to know whether he'd be ready for this season.

 

I think they gave Heinicke a modest extension because he played well vs TB and because the only other QBs who were on the roster at the time were an injured Allen, a Smith who they almost certainly knew at the time they would be releasing soon, and a Montez who couldn't even crack the backup position until there was literally nobody else in front of him.

 

So my guess would be the coaches have more confidence in a healthy Allen than a healthy Heinicke, but since Allen isn't healthy that's sort of out the window.

I think your assessment is a year old, I agree that the coaches thought more of Allen last year when they gave up a 5th round pick to bring him in but that changed after Heinickes performance in the playoffs. 

If Dak Prescotts shattered ankle is still worth 40 million per year then surely Allen's is worth 4 mil per assuming he's still 2 on the depth chart. 

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12 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Blindly? Yes. As a BPA after the best tackles are off the board and the top O/D players are gone and only a small handful of blue chip prospects left on the board? No.

 

Context matters. I’ll say this again and again and again and again.

 

Blanket statements are among the biggest culprits of faulty logic that have ever come about. 
 

Also, “nothing has changed about this franchise”? Have you watched this team’s evolution? 

Nope. In every single scenerio taking a RB in round 1 is a terrible idea outside of elite elite talents. It’s one of the most objective things in roster building.

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4 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

Nope. In every single scenerio taking a RB in round 1 is a terrible idea outside of elite elite talents. It’s one of the most objective things in roster building.

Some of us consider Najee to be that. Therein lies the rub. 

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

You're one of the only posters backing me up on Etienne, and I appreciate that someone else likes him so I don't feel Robinson Crusoed on him.  Etienne seems to be more highly regarded in other draftnik communities, as I see him ranked as RB1 more often than Najee and Javonte Williams.

 

I'm kind of in the same boat regarding him and Najee.  It's a 1A and 1B situation for me.  My head says Etienne but my gut says Najee.  I feel a little bit married to Najee since I've been such a big fan of him the past two years.  But if I were the GM of the WFT and my life depended on the outcome of the choice between them, I would probably choose Etienne.  Ever since I read that Najee has a bit of a star-vibe and an entourage, that's kind of offered an unfavorable contrast to Etienne.  Etienne is as low maintenance as it gets for a superstar college runningback playing for a blue blood program.  I think he's a better personality fit here, and I think he's a little bit better of a schematic fit too.  I think he's a better passing game weapon and I think he's better suited to excel in an outside zone heavy run game.  He's a better version of Gibson and I think you can stream the two of them without having to change the offense at all or having any real let-up on the D from series to series.  It would be a pounding attack.

y too much of a chance that it gets everyone fired and we have to start a whole new rebuild over again from scratch.  That's a nightmarish outcome to me.

 

Like you, I love watching college football and Etienne and Harris were college superstars.  I am surprised they are tough sells here.  You've equated following the draft to stocks in a post.   To me these guys are Amazon and Netflix.  Big time players.  It's hard to keep your eyes off of them when they play.  I recall saying something like this about Dalvin Cook back in the day which is you don't have to think that hard when you watch him, he's so dynamic and its so obvious.  I feel the same about Harris and Etienne with me having more confidence in Harris.   But I get your point about intangibes.  Yeah Etienne on that front comes off like a similar dude to Alfred Morris -- super nice, super humble. 

 

Etienne with 4.44 speed.  588 yards in receiving 12.3 YPC.  Sick numbers

 

N. Harris.  26 TDs insane. About 1500 yards on the ground, over 400 yards in the air.    He put up 150 yards about 5 YPC carry aganst Georgia's defense which is one of the best. 

 

With the harping by some on passing game, passing game, passing game.  And I get it, I'd like to improve it, too.  Both guys were monsters as to helping the passing game.  

 

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

As for trading up for Pitts, I'm against it in principle.  I don't want to trade up early into the first round for any position other than QB because I don't think any other position can singularly produce better value than multiple early round drafted players.  But the prospect of it is exciting.  I think he's a Calvin Johnson type of talent and I think he'd at least pan out into a superstar player at his position, regardless of opportunity cost.  I'd feel more comfortable trading up for him than for Trey Lance truth be told.  A big Lance trade carries an ulcer-inducing level of risk.  I don't really trust this staff with making a franchise QB out of a prospect like Lance, and I think the move carries way too much of a chance that it gets everyone fired and we have to start a whole new rebuild over again from scratch.  That's a nightmarish outcome to me.

 

for me it depends on the price but I expect it to be prohibitive.  As the draft approaches I trust rumors more than I do earlier on some fronts.  But I trust it the most 2-3 days before the draft.  Judging by right now Kyle Pitts is gone by pick 6.  And the guy that might drop closer to our pick is Devonta Smith.  Will see.

 

1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 I'd feel more comfortable trading up for him than for Trey Lance truth be told.  A big Lance trade carries an ulcer-inducing level of risk.  I don't really trust this staff with making a franchise QB out of a prospect like Lance, and I think the move carries way too much of a chance that it gets everyone fired and we have to start a whole new rebuild over again from scratch.  That's a nightmarish outcome to me.

 

I trust the staff.  But I think QB is such a crap shoot so even when I come on strong with an opinion on a QB, I'd never bet the house on it.    Trey Lance for me is so hard to judge.  I don't really have a strong opinion on what they do at QB right now.  It wouldn't bother me if they traded up and i'd feel fine if they don't.  i know we don't agree on Trask but if they took him in the third, i am fine with that, even though its not what I prefer they do.   If I had to pick on one concern at QB is I don't want to take Davis Mills in the late first as some mock drafters are claming that some teams (not sure if we are in that mix) are considering.   I am fine with Mills if its the third, I wouldn't like it if they took him in the 2nd but wouldn't go nuts about it either.

 

I think right now at 19 my top choices would be: 

A.  Darrisaw,

B. T. Jenkins 

C.  Koramoah

D. N. Harris

E.  Etienne

The guy that I'd be most excited about in that group would be Harris.   But I love the value of a stud LT long term. 

 

After those players, the next category for me would be these guys. 

A. Moehrig

B. Jamin Davis

C. Zaven Collins

D. S. Cosmi

 

Among that 2nd group the guy I'd be the most excited about is Moehrig because heck I can hardly remember the last time we have a pure cover FS who could ball. 

 

As for fallers, I wouldn't be able to resist Devonta Smith even though the draft is super deep at the spot, I like him too much.  I love Micah Parsons the player, I just don't know about the character stuff.  I like a lot:  Bateman, Elijah Moore, T. Marshall and I see them in the late first in mocks but 19 seems too early for them.  I see some talk about the corners falling but I tend to be pessimistic about corners dropping, I'd bet Horn and Surtain are long gone.  I don't want to take a chance on Farley with his injury.  

 

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4 minutes ago, redskinss said:

I think your assessment is a year old, I agree that the coaches thought more of Allen last year when they gave up a 5th round pick to bring him in but that changed after Heinickes performance in the playoffs. 

If Dak Prescotts shattered ankle is still worth 40 million per year then surely Allen's is worth 4 mil per assuming he's still 2 on the depth chart. 

 

I don't think Kyle Allen and Dak Prescott are very good comparisons. The Cowboys basically backed themselves into a corner with Dak and he's arguably a top 10 QB. There wasn't much else they could do besides give him a ginormous contract. 

 

As far as Heinicke, I think you might be overestimating the effect it had on how the coaches viewed him. RR basically said himself that he thought Heinicke played well but that with such a small sample size it was hard to extrapolate how a guy would play over a stretch of time, especially when he couldn't necessarily play like he had absolutely nothing to lose.

 

I'd guess they see him as at least a competent backup, which is why they paid him backup money and then went out and tried to trade for Stafford and then brought in Fitz for $10 million/year. That and the fact that Allen was injured, they were going to release Smith, and Montez isn't really even an NFL QB most likely. It was a good situation for both sides. WFT has a QB on the roster and Heinicke gets a cool $1 million signing bonus.

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3 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

OL is important but you need a bunch of decent ones. We've had studs at LT the last 20 years in Samuels and Williams and didn't win jack. 

 

Wasn't arguing with you.  You used Tampa Bay as example of getting more playmakers.  I just wanted to point out that KC, although they, too, are loaded with playmakers, were undone because they didn't have quality (decent) backups for their OT's.

 

One thing true for both of those teams is that they have elite QB's.

 

 

 

 

:229:The Rook

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6 minutes ago, The Rook said:

 

Wasn't arguing with you.  You used Tampa Bay as example of getting more playmakers.  I just wanted to point out that KC, although they, too, are loaded with playmakers, were undone because they didn't have quality (decent) backups for their OT's.

 

One thing true for both of those teams is that they have elite QB's.

 

 

 

 

:229:The Rook

 

Yeah I think the answer to the question of "name one TB starting OL" is "Tom Brady".

 

In 2019 Jameis Winston was sacked 47 times. Brady in 2020 was sacked 21 times. 

 

Yeah, they had an upgrade with a very good rookie at LT. But having a guy who's legendary for being able to get the ball out fast to the right guy is a huge boon.

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I like Etienne and Harris both (Etienne more), but I wouldn’t take either one at #19.  RB’s for the most part have become expendable with very short shelf lives.  A dominant OL guy or ILB can be foundations for a decade.  I expect we will take a RB on day 3 for some depth.

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The replay of the second game against the cowboys from last year was on the other night and I was watching a bit of it. In that game Antonio Gibson was the player that Ezekiel Elliott should be. He was explosive and dynamic and difficult to tackle and the team rode him to an easy win. 

Meanwhile all world, first round, Super talented Ezekiel looked lost disheartened, and ready to give up. 

I am not saying that Antonio Gibson is a better player than Ezekiel Elliott. But what occurred to me is the position of running back can be so dependent on so much else. We always talk about how a good running game supports a passing game and a defense, but the opposite has to happen a bit too.

I agree that it could be that Harris or Etienne, who I also love, are the "best player available" at number 19. However I think passing on the best player available in that scenario is less damaging than passing on best players available who play positions other than running back, if that makes sense.

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52 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Like you, I love watching college football and Etienne and Harris were college superstars.  I am surprised they are tough sells here.  You've equated following the draft to stocks in a post.   To me these guys are Amazon and Netflix.  Big time players.  It's hard to keep your eyes off of them when they play.  I recall saying something like this about Dalvin Cook back in the day which is you don't have to think that hard when you watch him, he's so dynamic and its so obvious.  I feel the same about Harris and Etienne with me having more confidence in Harris.   But I get your point about intangibes.  Yeah Etienne on that front comes off like a similar dude to Alfred Morris -- super nice, super humble. 

 

Etienne with 4.44 speed.  588 yards in receiving 12.3 YPC.  Sick numbers

 

N. Harris.  26 TDs insane. About 1500 yards on the ground, over 400 yards in the air.    He put up 150 yards about 5 YPC carry aganst Georgia's defense which is one of the best. 

 

With the harping by some on passing game, passing game, passing game.  And I get it, I'd like to improve it, too.  Both guys were monsters as to helping the passing game.  

 

 

for me it depends on the price but I expect it to be prohibitive.  As the draft approaches I trust rumors more than I do earlier on some fronts.  But I trust it the most 2-3 days before the draft.  Judging by right now Kyle Pitts is gone by pick 6.  And the guy that might drop closer to our pick is Devonta Smith.  Will see.

 

 

I trust the staff.  But I think QB is such a crap shoot so even when I come on strong with an opinion on a QB, I'd never bet the house on it.    Trey Lance for me is so hard to judge.  I don't really have a strong opinion on what they do at QB right now.  It wouldn't bother me if they traded up and i'd feel fine if they don't.  i know we don't agree on Trask but if they took him in the third, i am fine with that, even though its not what I prefer they do.   If I had to pick on one concern at QB is I don't want to take Davis Mills in the late first as some mock drafters are claming that some teams (not sure if we are in that mix) are considering.   I am fine with Mills if its the third, I wouldn't like it if they took him in the 2nd but wouldn't go nuts about it either.

 

I think right now at 19 my top choices would be: 

A.  Darrisaw,

B. T. Jenkins 

C.  Koramoah

D. N. Harris

E.  Etienne

The guy that I'd be most excited about in that group would be Harris.   But I love the value of a stud LT long term. 

 

After those players, the next category for me would be these guys. 

A. Moehrig

B. Jamin Davis

C. Zaven Collins

D. S. Cosmi

 

Among that 2nd group the guy I'd be the most excited about is Moehrig because heck I can hardly remember the last time we have a pure cover FS who could ball. 

 

As for fallers, I wouldn't be able to resist Devonta Smith even though the draft is super deep at the spot, I like him too much.  I love Micah Parsons the player, I just don't know about the character stuff.  I like a lot:  Bateman, Elijah Moore, T. Marshall and I see them in the late first in mocks but 19 seems too early for them.  I see some talk about the corners falling but I tend to be pessimistic about corners dropping, I'd bet Horn and Surtain are long gone.  I don't want to take a chance on Farley with his injury.  

 

 

I'd be pissed if we took Etienne instead of any of the guys you named in your next tier.

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3 hours ago, Die Hard said:


Can anybody name an OL from the Bucs? A line that neutralized every defensive line in the playoffs?

 

The Skins line is fine. It doesn’t mean it can’t be improved upon. Whether it’s starters or depth.

 

I think with the acquisitions at QB and receiver, we’re already going to get better line play. 
 

I think LB is a greater need than OT.

I think FS is a greater need than OT.

I think OT is a greater need than RB.

 

But at 19, because talent is going to fall, you take BPA.

 

And if that’s a CB, WR, or RB, then thats in play too.

Just to play devil's advocate: Smith Jensen and Wirfs...Wirfs fitting exactly what you described after the first game and a half once he settled into his rookie season.

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3 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Does the workload that Ettiene and Harris had to carry in college concern anyone?  Compare their touches over the course of their college career to Williams (potentially available in the 2nd) and there is a wide spread in usage.


I’ve read a lot about this, and it’s basically a myth. It isn’t really a concern, it’s actually the opposite—there’s nothing in the data that suggests a large college workload is a negative attribute, entering the league, unless it resulted in serious chronic injury.
 

Some like to talk about guys having “low miles” on their tires with plenty of tread left (it was a big topic of discussion with Gibson last year)—but in fact, guys who end up with good draft pedigree who carried a large load in college are more likely to be able to handle a large workload in the NFL as well—it is a positive in terms of acting as a predictor. Guys who aren’t trusted with a large workload in college were rarely just skipped over, looking at a wide sample size—usually it’s because they aren’t good enough to handle that many touches, so they didn’t get that trust from coaches. It’s kind of a self-fulfilling prophecy when you’re good enough to be a workhorse. Statistically, the more touches a guy proves able to handle, the more likely it is he can continue to handle those touches through his prime, essentially—until hitting a wall in his late 20’s (for most) which seems more a product of age than accumulated touches. If a guy is going to be a stud with a long career, he just is going to keep it up—you can’t really overload him with touches when he’s young. The wheels will just fall off at some point like with anyone else, rather than being a case of grinding him down too soon—the cliff comes out of nowhere, usually, it’s not a slow descent due to over-work. Again, aside from major career-trajectory altering type injuries, which are mostly random or due to poor body mechanics, not due to heavy workloads. 

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1 hour ago, method man said:

 

I'd be pissed if we took Etienne instead of any of the guys you named in your next tier.

 

lol, ok, if all the mocks I've seen at our pick the only one that bothered me was Mayfield at 19.  I am an easy camper in this draft.  If Darrisaw isn't there at 19 my preference is to trade down if possible.  I have so many players I like. 

 

To explain my mindset.  I don't see the first round pick as the be all and end all where its critical to puzzle it to fit the top need.  We got 8 picks.   Also while I factor position in my thoughts, it's part of the reason why I harp mostly about LT, I got some flexibility when it comes to BPA where I am not rigid on any specific rule where I can't take this guy or that guy because of some formula.  And in general i am big on stats and formulas but I don't want to be a strict slave to it with no flexibility.   And i am not arguing theory versus theory but instead player versus player while factoring the theory. 

 

To me it depends on who is there.    Morgan Moses was a LT in college, he was highly touted.  Would I rather have Morgan Moses or Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook?  Nope.   I'd rather have Cook or Henry.   Would I rather have Wirfs over Dalvin Cook?  Yes.  To me its not RB versus LT.  LT versus LB.  It's who the specific players are and then factor ther position in the soup. 

 

I am starting to root for Harris to be the pick at 19 just for the entertainment value of seeing this board's meltdown about it.  :ols:. If it happened, i'd also bet that people's tunes would change quickly during the season.  He's a tough player not to fall hard for.  

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