2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Koolblue13]

As much as I want Collins and Moehrig, trading our first for a first next year is still my first choice. Especially if we could trade next year's second to move back into the first this year.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

@Skinsinparadise the hardest part of trading down is the talent has to be there for someone to trade up. Notoriously, each year there are about 15-20 "round 1 graded" players while the rest fall in that R2 grade category and apparently this year there are fewer R1 consensus candidates than most years. So while someone could slip to us at #19, there's a good chance all of the consensus R1 guys are gone, and I have a hard time seeing another team trade up to #19 unless, of course, one of those guys falls.

 

Here's where I COULD see a trade-up.

 

For a CB or WR that falls or a team that really needs one/likes one and wants to get ahead of the potential run.

 

If one of the top DEs/EDGEs is there, and a team wants to stake a claim and come up and get "their guy" ... there's a chance all of the DEs/EDGEs could still be on the board at #19.

2 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

As much as I want Collins and Moehrig, trading our first for a first next year is still my first choice. Especially if we could trade next year's second to move back into the first this year.

 

A 1st this year for a 1st next year? Has that ever actually happened? I can't think of an instance when a team traded a 1 for a future 1 straight up. Or, for that matter, an instance where a team traded a 1st for a later pick and a future 1st. I've seen it done with 2nds (us) but not 1sts.

[Skinsinparadise]

 I like Kyle Smith but the 2nd round and 4th round haven't been pretty.   Be interesting to see how Gribble does.  I am getting the impression that Gribble has been a key part of recent drafts.  He was Kyle's top guy below him. 

 

I've said in real time during the draft that we like to take left field type of picks in the 4th round:  Nicholson, Apke, Martin.  And these guys haven't done well.  I like Bryce Love but clearly that was a risky pick.  I recall reading the article before that draft that teams were gunshy about him because the leg wasn't healing right according to some, it was more stiff than it should have been post injury.

 

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 I like Kyle Smith but the 2nd round and 4th round haven't been pretty.   Be interesting to see how Gribble does.  I am getting the impression that Gribble has been a key part of recent drafts.  He was Kyle's top guy below him.

 

The 2nd round, absolutely trash picks. The draft is a crapshoot, but the 2nd round shouldn't be a wasteland like it's been with WFT lately.

 

That said, the 4th round IS a total crapshoot. Of course you hope to have contributors from that round, but would expect the miss rate to be much higher. That said, the miss rate has been pretty atrocious lately there as well.

 

Thank god we have hit on the 1st and 3rd rounds (Haskins and Doctson aside) and found some really high quality late-round gems in that same window of time to make-up for it. Ironically (or not) we have way more hits in R7 than R2 ... Curl, Roullier, Moreland ...

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Yep, this is the window of time when all the teams gauge what the price of moving up or down could/would be if certain players are available.

 

WFT surely is one of these teams, because you want to know what the price will be to get to #8 if Fields or Lance (assuming one is the target) are available there.

[Burgundy Yoda]

That guys tweet makes it seem like he has no idea how often teams miss in the draft. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

The 2nd round, absolutely trash picks. The draft is a crapshoot, but the 2nd round shouldn't be a wasteland like it's been with WFT lately.

 

That said, the 4th round IS a total crapshoot. Of course you hope to have contributors from that round, but would expect the miss rate to be much higher. That said, the miss rate has been pretty atrocious lately there as well.

 

Thank god we have hit on the 1st and 3rd rounds (Haskins and Doctson aside) and found some really high quality late-round gems in that same window of time to make-up for it. Ironically (or not) we have way more hits in R7 than R2 ... Curl, Roullier, Moreland ...

 

1st-3rd, 5th-7th good.

 

The 4th gets me because some of those picks felt weird as they happened versus who was available at the time.  And with the benefit of time those picks have ended up as bad as they seemed.  Agree the 4th round isn't the easiest to nail. 

[DWinzit]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Interesting, a couple things really jump besides Pitts crazy yards pr route, 40 time and wingspan.

 

Pitts 10 time doesn't stick out

 

Brevin, Yeboah and McKitty have incredible YAC numbers and all are reachable to WFT in the 3-5 rounds!

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

That guys tweet makes it seem like he has no idea how often teams miss in the draft. 

 

No doubt but its funky i think how Kyle has been good in the third round and not so much the 2nd.  Later round picks are crap shoots but the 4th round usually isn't as bad as the 5th-7th.  but I've actually liked the 5-7th better than the 4th,

 

Like I said overall Kyle has done a good job.  You will have more misses than hits in just about any draft. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

1st-3rd, 5th-7th good.

 

The 4th gets me because some of those picks felt weird as they happened versus who was available at the time.  And with the benefit of time those picks have ended up as bad as they seemed.  Agree the 4th round isn't the easiest to nail. 

 

I am with you 1,000%. Every. Single. One. AGG at least made a little bit of sense last year. He was in that group of R2-4 WRs pre-draft that people were hyping up, so there were plenty of mocks where I saw him going in Round 3 and 4, so that was the first time in several years where the 4th round pick was announced and I dnd't go "wait, who?"

 

I mean I think most of us in here are pretty knowledgable about the draft eligible players. I never remembered even seeing Wes Martin or Troy Apke's names the years we drafted them, and at the time there were several players I had regularly mocked to us in that range available at positions of need that I thought for SURE we'd be getting. Montae Nicholson another guy I had no idea who he was that we got in that range.

 

At least Bryce Love was a big-name player, but even that pick felt weird.

[Conn]

7 minutes ago, Burgundy Yoda said:

That guys tweet makes it seem like he has no idea how often teams miss in the draft. 

Not really, that’s a hit rate in the 2nd (and 4th) way worse than you’d expect across a random sample of teams. This board would have easily done a better job those years and ALMOST all of those picks were obvious reaches and/or head scratchers at the time minus Guice and Love—not surprising as both fell due to off-field/injury concerns and fans love the draft day value of ignoring those in favor of a “total steal” (which to be fair can happen). It’s not surprising we liked those picks without all the information at our fingertips. But even still, a consensus poll from the guys in this thread would easily have out-drafted our real life performance in the 2nd and 4th rounds in recent years lol. That’s bad. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Interesting, a couple things really jump besides Pitts crazy yards pr route, 40 time and wingspan.

 

Pitts 10 time doesn't stick out

 

Brevin, Yeboah and McKitty have incredible YAC numbers and all are reachable to WFT in the 3-5 rounds!

 

 

I am about to put a crap load of stats on this thread on multiple positions which I think I've organized pretty well.  I have to finish watching some of the later round guys first, I am almost there. 

 

Here are TE's ranked based on PFF's blocking score, along with some other stats in the same place.  I think PFF is too rough on Yeboah as for blocking, he looked OK in the games i watched and they had him block a lot so he's seasoned on that front.   I don't always agree with PFF but on some players its interesting. 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

 “total steal” (which to be fair can happen).

 

There have been several of these. La'El Collins was an obvious concern given the murder situation, but the fact that he went undrafted was just ... I just couldn't ... it was a clear area of need. I think he said he wanted to go undrafted so he could choose his destination, but even still, man. There have been some others over the years that made me scratch my head. But then again, we have had our fair share of getting these guys too. I remember thinking Tim Settle was someone we could target in the 2nd round, and he fell to the 5th and worked out REAL nicely. The book is out on Saahdiq Charles, but he's another guy I thought could go Round 2 that fell and I hope he has a similar story/result.

 

My guy in this draft is Shaun Wade. He could go way earlier than is being mocked, but I will be pretty bummed if he's there in Round 4 or 5 and we draft some player Ive never heard of haha.

[Dark Acre]

2 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

BECAUSE IT IS. EVERY SINGLE METRIC shows that RB is one of the least valuable positions and you can always find a good one later on.

YOU CAN PUT IT IN ALL CAPS ALL DAY LONG, but NFL football is still measured in *yards*, not meters*, and Samaje Perine, Robert Kelley, and Kapri Bibbs, and their mothers all agree with you.  You need a good-enough LT, not a great one.  LTs don't get style points.  You don't get bonus yards for highlight-reel blocks (vs. get-the-job-done blocks), and that god-tier LT sure ain't going to stop both that top-5 RDE and that safety blitzing between the C and RG (a "JAG" like Clinton Portis would've put that safety on next week's injured list, and then taken it to the house next play).  LTs don't catch passes, they don't bust through the line with ball in their hands, etc.  If Rivera wants a complete RB in round 1, I'm all for it.

 

*That's a pun on your "metrics".

[PartyPosse]

1 hour ago, The Rook said:

 

Wasn't arguing with you.  You used Tampa Bay as example of getting more playmakers.  I just wanted to point out that KC, although they, too, are loaded with playmakers, were undone because they didn't have quality (decent) backups for their OT's.

 

One thing true for both of those teams is that they have elite QB's.

 

 

 

 

The Rook

I don’t think KC is loaded with playmakers. They have Hill and Kielce and a bunch of question marks.

[method man]

31 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

lol, ok, if all the mocks I've seen at our pick the only one that bothered me was Mayfield at 19.  I am an easy camper in this draft.  If Darrisaw isn't there at 19 my preference is to trade down if possible.  I have so many players I like. 

 

To explain my mindset.  I don't see the first round pick as the be all and end all where its critical to puzzle it to fit the top need.  We got 8 picks.   Also while I factor position in my thoughts, it's part of the reason why I harp mostly about LT, I got some flexibility when it comes to BPA where I am not rigid on any specific rule where I can't take this guy or that guy because of some formula.  And in general i am big on stats and formulas but I don't want to be a strict slave to it with no flexibility.   And i am not arguing theory versus theory but instead player versus player while factoring the theory. 

 

To me it depends on who is there.    Morgan Moses was a LT in college, he was highly touted.  Would I rather have Morgan Moses or Derrick Henry or Dalvin Cook?  Nope.   I'd rather have Cook or Henry.   Would I rather have Wirfs over Dalvin Cook?  Yes.  To me its not RB versus LT.  LT versus LB.  It's who the specific players are and then factor ther position in the soup. 

 

I am starting to root for Harris to be the pick at 19 just for the entertainment value of seeing this board's meltdown about it.  . If it happened, i'd also bet that people's tunes would change quickly during the season.  He's a tough player not to fall hard for.  

At the end of the day, something has happened with running backs recently where the 30 year age wall from the 90s and early 2000s has become a 27/28 year old wall.

 

When I am drafting a RB, I want to get someone with a clear line of sight to contributing for the next 10 years. In baseball, folks use WAR and some folks think through cumulative WAR. I want to maximize cumulative WAR with a 1st and taking a non-RB lets me do that.

2 minutes ago, GothSkinsFan said:

YOU CAN PUT IT IN ALL CAPS ALL DAY LONG, but NFL football is still measured in *yards*, not meters*, and Samaje Perine, Robert Kelley, and Kapri Bibbs, and their mothers all agree with you.  You need a good-enough LT, not a great one.  LTs don't get style points.  You don't get bonus yards for highlight-reel blocks (vs. get-the-job-done blocks), and that god-tier LT sure ain't going to stop both that top-5 RDE and that safety blitzing between the C and RG (a "JAG" like Clinton Portis would've put that safety on next week's injured list, and then taken it to the house next play).  LTs don't catch passes, they don't bust through the line with ball in their hands, etc.  If Rivera wants a complete RB in round 1, I'm all for it.

 

*That's a pun on your "metrics".

That is just silly. Trent is an example of a god type LT due to his elite athleticism. That elite athleticism allows him to go 1 on 1 all day with elite edge rushers, freeing the TE up to run routes. His elite athleticism allows him to also consistently get to the second level and take on linebackers and safeties. Compare that with what Cornelius Lucas is able to do

[Burgundy Yoda]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

No doubt but its funky i think how Kyle has been good in the third round and not so much the 2nd.  Later round picks are crap shoots but the 4th round usually isn't as bad as the 5th-7th.  but I've actually liked the 5-7th better than the 4th,

 

Like I said overall Kyle has done a good job.  You will have more misses than hits in just about any draft. 

Yeah, I think it's odd too but I feel like we have had a higher hit percentage on picks in the other rounds than most teams. I appreciate the job Kyle has done because I remember how bad our drafts used to be before 2015. We'd get maybe one good player out of the entire draft and it would usually be our 1st rounder lol. 

[DWinzit]

40 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

There have been several of these. La'El Collins was an obvious concern given the murder situation, but the fact that he went undrafted was just ... I just couldn't ... it was a clear area of need. I think he said he wanted to go undrafted so he could choose his destination, but even still, man. There have been some others over the years that made me scratch my head. But then again, we have had our fair share of getting these guys too. I remember thinking Tim Settle was someone we could target in the 2nd round, and he fell to the 5th and worked out REAL nicely. The book is out on Saahdiq Charles, but he's another guy I thought could go Round 2 that fell and I hope he has a similar story/result.

 

My guy in this draft is Shaun Wade. He could go way earlier than is being mocked, but I will be pretty bummed if he's there in Round 4 or 5 and we draft some player Ive never heard of haha.

Collins was one of the most whacked draft situations I can remember. He would have been awesome in Burgundy ad gold....but no, he chooses freaking dallas, damnit.

Wade any early than the 4th or 5th and I would scream. He looked like a chump all year

Edited April 20, 2021 by DWinzit

[Burgundy Yoda]

13 minutes ago, ConnSKINS26 said:

Not really, that’s a hit rate in the 2nd (and 4th) way worse than you’d expect across a random sample of teams. This board would have easily done a better job those years and ALMOST all of those picks were obvious reaches and/or head scratchers at the time minus Guice and Love—not surprising as both fell due to off-field/injury concerns and fans love the draft day value of ignoring those in favor of a “total steal” (which to be fair can happen). It’s not surprising we liked those picks without all the information at our fingertips. But even still, a consensus poll from the guys in this thread would easily have out-drafted our real life performance in the 2nd and 4th rounds in recent years lol. That’s bad. 

You put way too much faith in random internet posters in their ability to scout. I'm not saying that hit rate in those two rounds isn't bad, it is. The hit rates in the other rounds for us have been very good though and extremely uncommon in comparison to most other teams. If you look at the overall drafts we've had, there is no reason people should be complaining, that's all I'm saying. I could care less about us having those crappy rounds because we have hit frequently in the 1st, 3rd, 5th, and 7th rounds. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, method man said:

At the end of the day, something has happened with running backs recently where the 30 year age wall from the 90s and early 2000s has become a 27/28 year old wall.

 

When I am drafting a RB, I want to get someone with a clear line of sight to contributing for the next 10 years. In baseball, folks use WAR and some folks think through cumulative WAR. I want to maximize cumulative WAR with a 1st and taking a non-RB lets me do that.

 

I want a game changer.    I do think this team if it plays its card right can be a post season threat in upcoming years.  I want a guy who is a game changer.  Now that could be a LT or LB or could also be a RB or name that position.  

 

Derrick Henry is headed for year #6 and doesn't seem on his way out.   Marshawn Lynch was a force for 10 years.   Portis who retired earlish still played on a high level for 7 seasons.  

 

But lets play this pessimistically and say they give 5 great years.  I'd take it.  At this point I am hoping we can win a SB in 2-4 seasons.  I am not concerned about 2027-2030. I get your point and heck I am been pushing left tackle hard for months.  But if Najee Harris ends up like Marshawn Lynch or Derrick Henry or close enough, I'd put money that no one will be whining about it in October when we watch him and Gibson lets say steamroll Dallas.  Imagine a RB tandem like that in the post season -- in the cold weather?   

 

I think one thing which might be missed by some about both Etienne and Harris is these dudes are serious weapons in the passing game.  And not just in a small way.  Harris with almost 600 passing yards.  Etienne with over 400. 

 

I get people preferring other players.  Depending on how the draft goes, I likely will prefer a different player, too.  But on the off chance they took Harris or Etienne (especially Harris) no meltdown from me, I'll be jazzed. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[DWinzit]

29 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am about to put a crap load of stats on this thread on multiple positions which I think I've organized pretty well.  I have to finish watching some of the later round guys first, I am almost there. 

 

Here are TE's ranked based on PFF's blocking score, along with some other stats in the same place.  I think PFF is too rough on Yeboah as for blocking, he looked OK in the games i watched and they had him block a lot so he's seasoned on that front.   I don't always agree with PFF but on some players its interesting. 

 

 

Yes, I thought Yeboah and Brevins numbers blocking would have been higher as well as Brevins contested catches. 

Bushman's a grandfather 

More reasons not to like Eubanks

I still like Tremble and Freir in the 2nd, Brevin and long in the 3rd and Yeboah and McKitty along with Moore in the 4th/5th.

 

[The Rook]

48 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don’t think KC is loaded with playmakers. They have Hill and Kielce and a bunch of question marks.

I won't mention the Defensive playmakers

Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Sammy Watkins, and Patrick Mahomes. Even Le'Veon Bell averaged 4 yds a carry

Besides Hill and Kelce, they had 4 other WR's who averaged over 11 yds per catch

Kicker Butker was 25 of 27 with 4 for 4 at +50yds.

 

That is a lot of firepower on one team.

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Rook

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Tremble in the second at 51? Wow. To me that would be an overreach. He’s an elite blocker with very little production offensively. He’s got lots of untapped potential it would seem. But man, 51 seems super high for him. 
TE’s traditionally take extra time to leave their mark.  I hoping he’s there in the 3rd w/ either pick. I would not select him at 51. 
 

Depending on what we do in the 1st, 51 would be the place I take my shot on a super talent that fell a bit like E. Moore/T. Marshall/one of the OT’s/S/RB/or CB..

 

I’d earmark one of the 3rds to move on one of Hunter/Brevin/Tremble... I can see saying f it, let’s get the guy we want now, w/ 51, I just feel like we can wait and grab one in the 3rd.