2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I would really, really hate to lose one of our IDLs. I have advocated for NOT trading any of them. But if there's a time to maximize on supply/demand, this could be it.

 

 

[mistertim]

17 minutes ago, KDawg said:

He’s young. 

 

No doubt, but I'm just saying in general...that's pretty small. If he's planning on declaring for the 2022 draft (assuming he has a good season) then he'd need to also plan on putting on some weight or durability will be a huge issue for his draft stock.

 

12 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I would really, really hate to lose one of our IDLs. I have advocated for NOT trading any of them. But if there's a time to maximize on supply/demand, this could be it.

 

 

 

Ideally I'd hate to lose any of our IDL guys too, but none of our interior guys are elite game changers and IMO we can't afford to pay them as if they were. We could probably get 1st round picks for one of them in a dry IDL FA/draft year. It also depends on how much they're likely to ask for. If we have 3 interior DL guys each wanting to be paid as a top 3 DT then it's just not going to work out, especially with the eventual contracts for Scherff, McLaurin, Sweat, and Young coming up at some point. Can't afford to have 2/3rds of your cap in one position.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

5 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

No doubt, but I'm just saying in general...that's pretty small. If he's planning on declaring for the 2022 draft (assuming he has a good season) then he'd need to also plan on putting on some weight or durability will be a huge issue for his draft stock.

 

 

Ideally I'd hate to lose any of our IDL guys too, but none of our interior guys are elite game changers and IMO we can't afford to pay them as if they were. We could probably get 1st round picks for one of them in a dry IDL FA/draft year. It also depends on how much they're likely to ask for. If we have 3 interior DL guys each wanting to be paid as a top 3 DT then it's just not going to work out, especially with the eventual contracts for Scherff, McLaurin, Sweat, and Young coming up at some point. Can't afford to have 2/3rds of your cap in one position.

 

Wonder if it makes Tim Settle appealing for a team for a 3rd or 4th rounder though? Considering he's entering his final year and is 4th in our rotation.

 

We'd probably need to use a later pick on a replacement since we cut Brantley loose though.

 

I think Allen or Payne could land us a 1st and maybe another pick. But I'm not really sure if I would be willing to send Payne, for example, to the Browns for pick #26. Maybe if we replaced him with someone like Tyler Shelvin in Round 3 or 4 who has some good upside, but considering it's a weak class these guys probably get overdrafted too, meaning we gotta wait until next year to find an interior guy.

 

Also, I feel like we're in a bit of a pergatory with pick #19 anyway, so adding pick #26 to the mix (even if we could get that) seems a bit meh to me considering we're giving up Payne. Unless, I guess, you immediately turn around and use that pick on Barmore (if he's even there).

[Chump Bailey]

Isaiah McDuffie LB Boston College seems like he would be a good choice in the mid to later rounds for us. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1.19: Zaven Collins, LB Tulsa

1.26: Alex Leatherwood, OT Alabama

2.51: Daviyon Dixon, IDL Iowa

3.74: Jainarius Robinson, DE FSU

3.82: Divine Deablo, S/LB VT

4.124: Rhamondre Stephenson, RB Oklahoma

5.163: Simi Fehoko, WR Stanford

 

Trade* Daron Payne to Cleveland for 1.26

 

But, take out the trade, drop Leatherwood at 26 and go Best OT at 51 and that's still a solid draft. I would see Collins as the MLB and Deablo as the joker 4-2 LB to sub-in at either nickeblacker or SS. But I know there's some buzz on Deablo sneaking into Round 1 so I doubt he's there at #82.

 

Edited April 19, 2021 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Ball Security]

21 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Wonder if it makes Tim Settle appealing for a team for a 3rd or 4th rounder though? Considering he's entering his final year and is 4th in our rotation.

 

We'd probably need to use a later pick on a replacement since we cut Brantley loose though.

 

I think Allen or Payne could land us a 1st and maybe another pick. But I'm not really sure if I would be willing to send Payne, for example, to the Browns for pick #26. Maybe if we replaced him with someone like Tyler Shelvin in Round 3 or 4 who has some good upside, but considering it's a weak class these guys probably get overdrafted too, meaning we gotta wait until next year to find an interior guy.

 

Also, I feel like we're in a bit of a pergatory with pick #19 anyway, so adding pick #26 to the mix (even if we could get that) seems a bit meh to me considering we're giving up Payne. Unless, I guess, you immediately turn around and use that pick on Barmore (if he's even there).

I’d feel better if they could get Settle to extend before dangling Payne.  I thought Payne had a really good year last year, but he’d provide the most in a return, IMO.  Definitely wouldn’t force a move, but if we could get Jax or Cleveland to give up 25/26, then that creates more flexibility.

[JoggingGod]

1 hour ago, Darth Tater said:

It is more likely that anybody we draft at QB will be a bust. If we trade up, we are much more likely to be screwed as a franchise. You need to wait until you are a perinial playoff contender and trade up then like KC (playoffs 3 out of 4 years, 4 straight winning seasons and 3 11 or more win regular seasons BEFORE the trade), hope you get lucky (UDFA like Dallas, later pick like Seattle, someone good somehow hits FA like Tampa, another teams trash like Tennessee or someone slides to your natural pick like happened for Green Bay) or or have a bad season at the right time when you are actually decent like Pittsburgh.

This is dumb logic. We went 7-9 last year with the worst QB group in the NFL. A halfway solid QB and we win 9-10 last year.

[mistertim]

7 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I’d feel better if they could get Settle to extend before dangling Payne.  I thought Payne had a really good year last year, but he’d provide the most in a return, IMO.  Definitely wouldn’t force a move, but if we could get Jax or Cleveland to give up 25/26, then that creates more flexibility.

 

I dunno...after thinking some more and looking at it again, I'm actually not sure we'd get a 1st for any of our interior DL. Usually those guys don't tend to net a big return unless they're serious disruptors who also get after the QB really well. SF got a 1st rounder for Buckner in 2019, but IMO none of our DTs are on his level. We might be able to squeeze a first out of someone for Allen. But I don't see any way Payne or Ioan net that. 

 

Which puts us in a difficult spot. If we can't recoup what we paid (draft-wise) for them...then what do we do? Keep them as long as possible and then let them walk for nothing in FA? Accept a 2nd for them instead? Agree to pay them all top dollar even if it may screw up our ability to sign other guys?

[Ball Security]

10 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I dunno...after thinking some more and looking at it again, I'm actually not sure we'd get a 1st for any of our interior DL. Usually those guys don't tend to net a big return unless they're serious disruptors who also get after the QB really well. SF got a 1st rounder for Buckner in 2019, but IMO none of our DTs are on his level. We might be able to squeeze a first out of someone for Allen. But I don't see any way Payne or Ioan net that. 

 

Which puts us in a difficult spot. If we can't recoup what we paid (draft-wise) for them...then what do we do? Keep them as long as possible and then let them walk for nothing in FA? Accept a 2nd for them instead? Agree to pay them all top dollar even if it may screw up our ability to sign other guys?

I don’t think our IDL’s net a first rounder, but with the scarcity of quality IDL in this draft, you have to be prepared if someone overpays.  I’m not totally convinced we can’t keep all four first rounders across the line as the cap increases.  But Settle is up after this season with Allen so a decision needs to be made on him sooner than later.  I don’t think they can keep him if he makes it to FA.

[Burgundy Yoda]

I think we could get a late 1st for Payne due to how young he is with two years left on his contract. That 1st round status goes a long way. 

 

Payne is a really good player but you have to trade one of these 4 DTs and I think he would get the most value. There is zero point in having depth, if you have a player like Settle sitting on the bench only getting 5-10% of your snaps at most. 

 

We have to take advantage of the depth we have at DT to continue filling out the roster. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[Dark Acre]

2 hours ago, Darth Tater said:

You need to wait until you are a perinial playoff contender

Methinks "perinial" taint the word you were intending to spell....  ("Perennial")

[Jericho]

3 hours ago, RWJ said:

He got beat out by Trask.  Whether it was his attitude or whatever that makes a statement.

 

It was really the other way around. Franks beat out Trask for the starting job in 2017 and 2018 and 2019. But then he suffered a season-ending injury early in the 2019 season and Trask took over. By December 2019, Franks decided to transfer. The fact Franks is basically a late round pick and Trask is possible Day 2 speaks a lot to one or the other of these guys (is one way overrated? underrated?). Or maybe it speaks to Florida's coaching for repeatedly taking Franks over Trask.

[Warhead36]

I'm not sure we'd get a 1st for any of our interior DL. I mean Deforest Buckner went for a 1 last year, but he's much better than who we have. At best we could maybe package one of our DLs with our 1st in a trade up scenario.

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not sure we'd get a 1st for any of our interior DL. I mean Deforest Buckner went for a 1 last year, but he's much better than who we have. At best we could maybe package one of our DLs with our 1st in a trade up scenario.

This is what I am thinking as well. Payne plus 19 to move up. Miami is apparently actively shopping 6. If we want to get up there I would much prefer to trade Allen or Payne instead of burning our 1st rounder next year. We may even need to throw in one of our 3rds to get it done. If Fields is sitting there at 6 I think I am doing what is necessary to move up there and grab him. 

[Burgundy Yoda]

29 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not sure we'd get a 1st for any of our interior DL. I mean Deforest Buckner went for a 1 last year, but he's much better than who we have. At best we could maybe package one of our DLs with our 1st in a trade up scenario.

I think most of the time you lose value when you just throw a player in as a trade chip to move up. Also, we have to remember that not all 1st rounders are created equal, Buckner went for pick #14. I'm thinking a late 1st or early 2nd is probably good and fair value. 

Edited April 19, 2021 by Burgundy Yoda

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Jericho said:

 

It was really the other way around. Franks beat out Trask for the starting job in 2017 and 2018 and 2019. But then he suffered a season-ending injury early in the 2019 season and Trask took over. By December 2019, Franks decided to transfer. The fact Franks is basically a late round pick and Trask is possible Day 2 speaks a lot to one or the other of these guys (is one way overrated? underrated?). Or maybe it speaks to Florida's coaching for repeatedly taking Franks over Trask.

My bad, Jericho. 

[Koolblue13]

Our DLine is so good it would be a shame to not take advantage of the youth and depth, so we need to win now.

OR

We should trade our DLinemen to move up and grab a QB who will need a couple years to excel.

[Warhead36]

23 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what I am thinking as well. Payne plus 19 to move up. Miami is apparently actively shopping 6. If we want to get up there I would much prefer to trade Allen or Payne instead of burning our 1st rounder next year. We may even need to throw in one of our 3rds to get it done. If Fields is sitting there at 6 I think I am doing what is necessary to move up there and grab him. 

I wonder if the Lions would want Jonathan Allen. Dan Campbell has been talking about fixing the Lion culture and being all about physicality and toughness, well I can't imagine many players better at being culture setters then Jon Allen. If we do trade up with them I wonder if they'd take 19, Allen, and one of our 3rds.

[Est.1974]

6 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

This is what I am thinking as well. Payne plus 19 to move up. Miami is apparently actively shopping 6. If we want to get up there I would much prefer to trade Allen or Payne instead of burning our 1st rounder next year. We may even need to throw in one of our 3rds to get it done. If Fields is sitting there at 6 I think I am doing what is necessary to move up there and grab him. 

Scherff likely has less value due to his tag situation, but tagged players have been moved on for decent value. #19 plus Scherff is where I’d be starting. Go find a replacement at guard, recovery a heap of cap space in the process.

[UK Skins]

4 hours ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Scherff likely has less value due to his tag situation, but tagged players have been moved on for decent value. #19 plus Scherff is where I’d be starting. Go find a replacement at guard, recovery a heap of cap space in the process.

This is my ideal scenario. 👍

[Anselmheifer]

Nobody wants to trade for Scherff. 

 

SIP I was thinking about you saying that Fitz likes having a bigger receiver that he can throw 50-50 balls to. Tylan Wallace might not be big, but he's a contested catch freak. 

[Est.1974]

12 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I wonder if the Lions would want Jonathan Allen. Dan Campbell has been talking about fixing the Lion culture and being all about physicality and toughness, well I can't imagine many players better at being culture setters then Jon Allen. If we do trade up with them I wonder if they'd take 19, Allen, and one of our 3rds.

Not a fan in principle of trading Jon Allen.

 

However, same old issue needs to be resolved. A contract. If we are sat here next year sticking a 17m franchise tag on him with no hope of a long term contract..............

[Anselmheifer]

Also, I can't find it, but didn't someone here post a PFF tweet about separation per route, where Brevin Jordan ranked 2nd?

[Skinsinparadise]

In studying those drafted from 2000-16, we did find some differences by position. Offensive linemen seem to be the most likely first-round picks to succeed. Of the 55 offensive tackles taken in the first round from 2000-16, 33 got second contracts with the teams that drafted them. That's 60%. Twelve of the 26 first-round guards (46.2%) and all nine of the first-round centers (100%) made it. Linebacker is a relatively safe pick, too, as 54.8% (23 of 42) of the those drafted got re-signed to second contracts. But man, it's ugly after that.

 

You fired up about all of the wide receivers available to your team in the first round this year? Not so fast, my friend. Wide receivers were the lowest-rated group in this study. Of the 70 receivers drafted from 2000-16, only 19 made it to second contracts with the team that drafted them. And that includes Odell Beckham Jr. and Tavon Austin, who didn't exactly become legendary Giants or Rams. For every Calvin Johnson, there's a Kevin White. For every Julio Jones, an A.J. Jenkins. This doesn't mean your team shouldn't pick a wide receiver early -- superstar wideouts are extremely valuable, after all -- just that any individual choice is a relative long shot.

 

The next-worst position group in this study is defensive tackle (35.3%) and then cornerback (35.5%). Some of this could be attributable to poor scheme fit.

"When you ask players to do the exact same thing they did in college, they're probably going to be all right," former Jets and Dolphins GM (and current ESPN NFL analyst) Mike Tannenbaum said. "When you ask them to do something different, that's when you bring in the unknowns and the risk goes up."

 

Are there teams that have been more successful than others at retaining their first-round picks? Yes, but remember that this is only a 17-year sample, and teams usually have one first-round pick per year. With that being said, the Cowboys signed a league-high 73.3% (11 of 15) of 2000-16 first-round picks to second contracts. They're followed closely by the Panthers and Texans at 68.8% (both 11 of 16), the Eagles at 60% (9 of 15) and the Steelers at 58.82% (10 of 17).

At the bottom of the list are the Broncos and the Jaguars, each of whom made 17 first-round picks over that stretch and signed only four to second contracts (23.5%). Others near the bottom include the Browns and Lions at 25% (each 5 of 20) and the Cardinals and Bills at 27.8% (each 5 of 18).

 

So what about the quarterbacks? There were 45 taken in the 17 drafts from 2000-16, and 19 of those (42.2%) got second contracts from the teams that drafted them. That includes MVPs Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan and Cam Newton. It includes Super Bowl champions Eli Manning, Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger. But it also includes Jared Goff and Carson Wentz, the top two picks from 2016 drafts, who were traded away this offseason from the teams that drafted them, before their second contracts even technically kicked in.

 

Does it matter how high they're picked? Sort of. Nine of the 12 quarterbacks taken with the No. 1 overall pick from those drafts got second contracts with the teams that picked them. (The ones who didn't were JaMarcus Russell, Sam Bradford and Jameis Winston.) Only one of three who were picked No. 2 got one (Wentz). Only one of the four who went No. 3 got one (Ryan). Philip Rivers, who was picked No. 4 in 2004, got one. That's 12 of the 19 overall. Finding a Roethlisberger at No. 11 or a Rodgers at No. 24 is basically like finding a golden ticket in your Wonka Bar.

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/draft/news

 

 

12 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Also, I can't find it, but didn't someone here post a PFF tweet about separation per route, where Brevin Jordan ranked 2nd?

 

Been playing with a lot of stats for multiple positions, I'll post more later this week.

 

 

 

Edited April 20, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[actorguy1]

https://www.nfl.com/news/peter-schrager-2021-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-cardinals-patriots-trade-up-for-alabama-r

 

.

 

Pick

19

 

Washington Football Team

 

 

Travis Etienne

Clemson · RB

First-round running backs might be a dying breed, but I love this addition to Scott Turner's offense. Etienne is electric between the tackles and in the open field as a ball carrier, but also adds value in the passing game. Washington still needs another playmaker or two on offense to be a threat in the NFC.