2021 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Chump Bailey]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

I shouldn't throw stones though. I took Apke in our 2018 ES GM mock draft - but in the 6th or 7th round

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, DWinzit said:

Yes, I thought Yeboah and Brevins numbers blocking would have been higher as well as Brevins contested catches. 

Bushman's a grandfather 

More reasons not to like Eubanks

I still like Tremble and Freir in the 2nd, Brevin and long in the 3rd and Yeboah and McKitty along with Moore in the 4th/5th.

 

 

I am still tinkering with it a little but this is where I got them ranked with all the stats in one place

 

 

[CommDownMan]

7 hours ago, Die Hard said:

Can anybody name an OL from the Bucs? A line that neutralized every defensive line in the playoffs?

 

The Skins line is fine. It doesn’t mean it can’t be improved upon. Whether it’s starters or depth.

 

I think with the acquisitions at QB and receiver, we’re already going to get better line play. 
 

I think LB is a greater need than OT.

I think FS is a greater need than OT.

I think OT is a greater need than RB.

 

But at 19, because talent is going to fall, you take BPA.

 

And if that’s a CB, WR, or RB, then thats in play too.

 

Wirfs because they wouldn't shut up about him during the Bucs game, but literally the only one I can tell you.  Haha

[KDawg]

1 hour ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

Tremble in the second at 51? Wow. To me that would be an overreach. He’s an elite blocker with very little production offensively. He’s got lots of untapped potential it would seem. But man, 51 seems super high for him. 
TE’s traditionally take extra time to leave their mark.  I hoping he’s there in the 3rd w/ either pick. I would not select him at 51. 
 

Depending on what we do in the 1st, 51 would be the place I take my shot on a super talent that fell a bit like E. Moore/T. Marshall/one of the OT’s/S/RB/or CB..

 

I’d earmark one of the 3rds to move on one of Hunter/Brevin/Tremble... I can see saying f it, let’s get the guy we want now, w/ 51, I just feel like we can wait and grab one in the 3rd.

I don’t know if Tremble in the second is a reach necessarily. If you’re making him a pure in line tight end it would probably be a reach. But if he’s a H used in packages with Thomas then second would be a good spot for him if the team deems his value there.

 

I could see it.

[clskinsfan]

Prisco just released his latest mock. Minny takes Lance at 14??? NE takes Jones at 15. We take Jamin at 19 and Chicago takes Davis Mills at 20.

 

 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-bears-take-surprising-first-round-qb-mac-jones-falls-to-patriots-vikings-also-land-qb/

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am about to put a crap load of stats on this thread on multiple positions which I think I've organized pretty well.  I have to finish watching some of the later round guys first, I am almost there. 

 

How did you get such incredibly accurate age numbers for all of the prospects?  I spent hours googling the dates of birth for most of the offensive prospects and had a hard time finding consistent and accurate information for them.

56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I am still tinkering with it a little but this is where I got them ranked with all the stats in one place

 

This is a fantastic reference chart, thanks for sharing it.  Not to be greedy, but I'd welcome something like this for other positions too even if you don't have time to include your own grades.

[Skinsinparadise]

6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

How did you get such incredibly accurate age numbers for all of the prospects?  I spent hours googling the dates of birth for most of the offensive prospects and had a hard time finding consistent and accurate information for them.

 

This is a fantastic reference chart, thanks for sharing it.  Not to be greedy, but I'd welcome something like this for other positions too even if you don't have time to include your own grades.

 

I used Brugler's stats for some of it including age.  I used his speed times which I noticed is a hair different from some other outfits.   Then I pulled the PFF numbers.  Then I looked up the RAS numbers.  

 

Yeah there are three key positions which I won't have time to watch enough guys to do my own ranking:  OG, S, CB.  I've watched some guys at those spots but not enough to do a full ranking that factors everyone so I am compiling those stats without my grade.

 

The WR one i am doing has the most stats, more than what I am showing for TE.  I have a lot a receivers on that list.   I've been working on and off on that for awhile.  I am almost done with it. 

 

I just want to finish watching some guys.  Ditto RB, almost done with that spot, too.   I need a little more time to finish tackle and linebacker.  I am compiling the stats as I watch the players so I still need to finish some of the data gathering.  But I will. 

 

 I'll post here for sure: S, RB, WR, LB, OG, OT, CB along with TE which I already posted. I'll try to spit as much as I can of it this week, i might be able to finish it all in the next 2-3 days. 

[Going Commando]

7 hours ago, Silvernon said:

I checked the other two and it's a 3rd Rd pick from 2018 (you should hit on your day 2 OG pick) and an undrafted C. Most times you find your C on day 3 or later. 

 

The center is Ryan Jensen who is considered one of the best and most impactful at the position in the NFL.  He's probably the biggest and most visible "star" of their OL because he's such a notably physical player and he was kind of a splashy big contract free agent signing for them.  He broke out in Baltimore first before signing the big deal in TB in 2018.  Big for a center contract anyway.

 

The Bucs are a nice example of how to build a dominant team via BPA drafting and smart free agency signings.  Daniel Jeremiah made a good point about them after the won the Superbowl--they went for premium talents instead of trying to find talent at premium positions.  They spent an early pick on Wirfs, but that's the only traditional "premium" position they chased, and that was a BPA situation.  They built the rest of that dominant OL outside of the first round of the draft, and instead chased value at every spot on their roster.  They got Mike Evans and Vita Vea and Devin White and Antoine Winfield Jr and Ronald Jones earlier than most people would have felt comfortable taking them, but targeted the player rather than the position.  They got tremendous value in Chris Godwin and Shaq Barrett and Carlton Davis too.  Just a really well built roster where they made strong use of all of the team building tools available to them.

[CommDownMan]

6 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

BECAUSE IT IS. EVERY SINGLE METRIC shows that RB is one of the least valuable positions and you can always find a good one later on.

 

So 100% apples to oranges, but it's worth making fun of myself. 

 

First fantasy football league I played in 15ish years ago was auto-draft and only one guy had ever played before.  We all had QBs in the first because QBs are soooo important.  I got Matt Hasselbeck with the 10th pick and the guy after me got LaDainian Tomlinson.  Spoiler alert, I didn't win the championship my first year...

 

While I won't argue for/against any player, if every team says never draft _____ in round _____ I'm pretty sure the value is there to make a gamble at times. 

Edited April 21, 2021 by jsharrin55

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know if Tremble in the second is a reach necessarily. If you’re making him a pure in line tight end it would probably be a reach. But if he’s a H used in packages with Thomas then second would be a good spot for him if the team deems his value there.

 

I could see it.

At least in that scenario they obviously have a strong Conviction about a guy, which I’m totally fine with. I’d just be surprised. I just think he can be had at our 70’s pick or even 82.  I’d leave the 2nd reserved for the BPA that drops no matter the position, depending what we do in the first. I think if we trade down once in the first, we’d pick up enough to get almost everything we need.  But a trade down is almost a prerequisite if we want to try and cover all our needs, they line up pretty well with BPA depending on round. 

[GhostofAlvinWalton]

4 hours ago, method man said:

That is just silly. Trent is an example of a god type LT due to his elite athleticism. That elite athleticism allows him to go 1 on 1 all day with elite edge rushers, freeing the TE up to run routes. His elite athleticism allows him to also consistently get to the second level and take on linebackers and safeties. Compare that with what Cornelius Lucas is able to do

The original point was you don’t need total studs on your OL to win. In fact (or the opinion of current NFL coaches, a front office person, and Mitchell Schwart...via the 2 for 1 drafts podcast) you just need 5 solid guys on OL. The reason is because NFL D-coordinators target the weakest link of your OL...not the studs. When the weakest links fail it doesn’t matter that your stud LT is doing a great job on an island. Of course it is nice to have 4 solid dudes and a stud but that isn’t necessary. From 2000-2018 this team had 13 pro bowl selections at LT...and one playoff win.

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Prisco just released his latest mock. Minny takes Lance at 14??? NE takes Jones at 15. We take Jamin at 19 and Chicago takes Davis Mills at 20.

 

 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-bears-take-surprising-first-round-qb-mac-jones-falls-to-patriots-vikings-also-land-qb/

I'm not smiling and hope Prisco is wrong.  Most of his picks probably will be as are most when it comes to the draft.  

[Koolblue13]

5 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@Skinsinparadise the hardest part of trading down is the talent has to be there for someone to trade up. Notoriously, each year there are about 15-20 "round 1 graded" players while the rest fall in that R2 grade category and apparently this year there are fewer R1 consensus candidates than most years. So while someone could slip to us at #19, there's a good chance all of the consensus R1 guys are gone, and I have a hard time seeing another team trade up to #19 unless, of course, one of those guys falls.

 

Here's where I COULD see a trade-up.

 

For a CB or WR that falls or a team that really needs one/likes one and wants to get ahead of the potential run.

 

If one of the top DEs/EDGEs is there, and a team wants to stake a claim and come up and get "their guy" ... there's a chance all of the DEs/EDGEs could still be on the board at #19.

 

A 1st this year for a 1st next year? Has that ever actually happened? I can't think of an instance when a team traded a 1 for a future 1 straight up. Or, for that matter, an instance where a team traded a 1st for a later pick and a future 1st. I've seen it done with 2nds (us) but not 1sts.

I'm not saying trade straight up. I'd want more this year in return. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Prisco just released his latest mock. Minny takes Lance at 14??? NE takes Jones at 15. We take Jamin at 19 and Chicago takes Davis Mills at 20.

 

 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/2021-nfl-mock-draft-bears-take-surprising-first-round-qb-mac-jones-falls-to-patriots-vikings-also-land-qb/

 

I'd like Davis Mills on this team, but not in the 1st!  I'm hoping this is just bored mock drafters going for shock value before the draft instead of an actual trend that people are anticipating.

 

Still haven't really seen any non-janky film of Jamin Davis to get a feel for him.  But not happy he's got Jaycee Horn going to the Eagles.

[RWJ]

22 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I'd like Davis Mills on this team, but not in the 1st!  I'm hoping this is just bored mock drafters going for shock value before the draft instead of an actual trend that people are anticipating.

 

Still haven't really seen any non-janky film of Jamin Davis to get a feel for him.  But not happy he's got Jaycee Horn going to the Eagles.

Believe he's WFTs pick at #51 and don't think he gets picked in the 1st round.  Talking about a stretch!  LOL

[DWinzit]

10 hours ago, KDawg said:

I don’t know if Tremble in the second is a reach necessarily. If you’re making him a pure in line tight end it would probably be a reach. But if he’s a H used in packages with Thomas then second would be a good spot for him if the team deems his value there.

 

I could see it.

That's exactly how I would use him and he is more freakish than the other prospects that would play this role. Those players I like the most are McKitty, Moore (who has had some injury concerns) and a FB I have mentioned many times Ben Mason. I know SIP debated whether to incorporate him in the TE or RB group. 

[DWinzit]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am still tinkering with it a little but this is where I got them ranked with all the stats in one place

 

 

Nice work! I think we are pretty much on the same page and similar to PFF except they rank Yeboah way lower than both of us.

I know Brevin is one of your big crushes. I say Freier doesn't make it to 51. If WFT is as interested in a TE as they say and they grab a LT in the 1st, would you take Brevin or Tremble at 51 or wait until the 3rd round? 

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

That's exactly how I would use him and he is more freakish than the other prospects that would play this role. Those players I like the most are McKitty, Moore (who has had some injury concerns) and a FB I have mentioned many times Ben Mason. I know SIP debated whether to incorporate him in the TE or RB group. 

You incorporate the H with whatever group his backups are in.

 

In today’s game that’s usually tight ends.

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You incorporate the H with whatever group his backups are in.

 

In today’s game that’s usually tight ends.

Agreed. Mason played FB, TE, and H with Michigan and he is 6'3" 256 so has the size. 

[Koolblue13]

I'd be over the moon happy if we replaced Barber with Mason and drafted Tremble in the third. Thats a serious power package.

[Skinsinparadise]

Running backs rankings mine, and PFF's ranking too.  Loaded with stats.  PFF has a category at the end that rates the run blocking these guys got.  Like anything stats aren't totally indicative, can be imperfect and some of them are subjective.  Even PFF I notice isn't a slave to their own stats since their ranking of players don't per se strictly follow their stat ratings.  I guess they are factoring context in the soup.

 

For me it was super hard to seperate the guys who I deem 5th-7th round.  I kept changing it some as I watched more.  Some players I watched heavily, others not as much.  Judging by other mocks I like Sermon, Carter and Herbert more than most.   Some guys I had a hard time making my mind up on like Jemar Jefferson where his athletic numbers bothered me but I tried not to fixate on the RAS numbers.   I think Jake Funk has potential albeit he doesn't even make a bunch of mock draft boards at all -- but his injury history is troubiling. 

 

I noticed some have Felton as a WR and some as a RB, I have Felton as a Wr so he's not on this list.  As for PFF's weird grade on Harris.  I noticed they backed off of it recently in a tweet.  But in the draft guide that produced that was the one they had at the time so I stuck to it for consistency.  PFF also like most analyitical outfits are down on RB as a spot and conversely are obsessed with the passing game.  I get it but IMO they can go too far on that point. 

 

If I had to pick one dude as my guy (a player I like more than most) it would be Carter.    His stop and go ability and elusiveness is a really fun watch for me.  

 

Edited April 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Anselmheifer]

11 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am still tinkering with it a little but this is where I got them ranked with all the stats in one place

 

 

 

This is a great chart. I think people are overlooking Brevin Jordan. Was I expecting better than a 4.67? Sure. Is a 4.67 really significantly different from Tommy Tremble's 4.63? It's a 4.4 vs a 4.44. For everyone that says that Brevin Jordan isn't explosive, watch the tape. Or, just the youtube video below.His movement skills are great. He really does look like a RB at TE, or even a little bit like Jordan Reed. There is a reason his YAC numbers are better than the other top TE's in the class and that his yards per route are 2nd in the TE class. I wish I could find it, but PFF posted a chart with average amount of separation for all the top receivers in that category, and Jordan was amongst the top prospects there too. I still think he's going to be really good and people are going to kick themselves for their evaluations. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

This is a great chart. I think people are overlooking Brevin Jordan. Was I expecting better than a 4.67? Sure. Is a 4.67 really significantly different from Tommy Tremble's 4.63? It's a 4.4 vs a 4.44. For everyone that says that Brevin Jordan isn't explosive, watch the tape. Or, just the youtube video below.His movement skills are great. He really does look like a RB at TE, or even a little bit like Jordan Reed. There is a reason his YAC numbers are better than the other top TE's in the class and that his yards per route are 2nd in the TE class. I wish I could find it, but PFF posted a chart with average amount of separation for all the top receivers in that category, and Jordan was amongst the top prospects there too. I still think he's going to be really good and people are going to kick themselves for their evaluations. 

 

 

 

I got Brevin if you noticed ranked as my 2nd favorite TE on the list I produced.  I haven't seen him ranked that way by any mock drafter.  When we do our short list of "our guys" before the draft like we typically do, Jordan will definitely be on that list. 

 

He's a YAC machine in the flat.

Edited April 21, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[DWinzit]

20 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Judging by other mocks I like Sermon, Carter and Herbert more than most. 

Lotta work here, thank you!

I too like these three more than the others past ones ranked as gone by the 2nd round. I really like Sermon and would take him in the 3rd. If gone I would go Hebert in the 4th as a great fit plus he brings the returner option to WFT.

I find a lot of similarity with the later round picks and a number would be very servicable.

 

[KDawg]

37 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Running backs rankings mine, and PFF's ranking too.  Loaded with stats.  PFF has a category at the end that rates the run blocking these guys got.  Like anything stats aren't totally indicative, can be imperfect and some of them are subjective.  Even PFF I notice isn't a slave to their own stats since their ranking of players don't per se strictly follow their stat ratings.  I guess they are factoring context in the soup.

 

For me it was super hard to seperate the guys who I deem 5th-7th round.  I kept changing it some as I watched more.  Some players I watched heavily, others not as much.  Judging by other mocks I like Sermon, Carter and Herbert more than most.   Some guys I had a hard time making my mind up on like Jemar Jefferson where his athletic numbers bothered me but I tried not to fixate on the RAS numbers.   I think Jake Funk has potential albeit he doesn't even make a bunch of mock draft boards at all -- but his injury history is troubiling. 

 

I noticed some have Felton as a WR and some as a RB, I have Felton as a Wr so he's not on this list.  As for PFF's weird grade on Harris.  I noticed they backed off of it recently in a tweet.  But in the draft guide that produced that was the one they had at the time so I stuck to it for consistency.  PFF also like most analyitical outfits are down on RB as a spot and conversely are obsessed with the passing game.  I get it but IMO they can go too far on that point. 

 

If I had to pick one dude as my guy (a player I like more than most) it would be Carter.    His stop and go ability and elusiveness is a really fun watch for me.  

 

I got it as Harris, Williams, Etienne... then there’s a drop off and the next group is Hubbard, Patterson, Carter, Gainwell... then a drop... then Stevenson, Herbert, Sermon

 

That mid group is the: “if it works they’re going to be great but I’m not sure they’re going to work” group. The third group is the “probably be effective as players but not set the world on fire” group.

 

The only one in any kind of order is my first group:

 

1) Harris

2) Williams

3) Etienne