BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[CousinsCowgirl84]

10 minutes ago, Isifhan said:

So I don't know about anyone else but my small business is getting hamered by this.  I book shows that tour to various theatres across the country.  I'm on the verge of losing every date that's booked between now and May if not longer. Any other small business owners here, how are folks managing cash flow? I have a small LOC that I'm looking to get increased but even that will only take things so far.  Any payroll tax relief would be minimal since I have one employee.  I have my doubts that anything SBA related will help to be honest. 

 

 

I own a small business but thus far i’ve only seen slight impacts.... but i have a feeling that it’s going to get worse. My employees go to peoples houses and i doubt people are going to want strangers in their house..   Luckily i have a bit of cash savings in the business... i survived the banking crisis and i sort of doubt this will be much worse than that... i’m not worried about it yet, there’s not a whole lot you can do. If people aren’t spending money, people aren’t spending money,  You have a much tougher situation to deal with, regardless. Hope it works out.

Edited March 12, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Llevron]

3 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Coronavirus.

 

I wonder if a player got coronavirus and he played in front of a full stadium; is it possible the fans watching the game were exposed or is it thru physical contact only?

It’s airborne, but it probably won’t travel from the court to the fans unless the player is in the stands. Which is a thing. And court side seats are a thing too. So yea, super possible I guess.

 

2 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

I don't understand, do we shut things down during flu season?  People stop going to work?  I don't recall this happening during the Avian flu or H1N1 or any other outbreak.  I don't claim to be an epidemiologist, but this seems like mass hysteria nonsense.  If they cancel the NCAA tournament I'll be super angry 😡

 

There is a vaccine for the flu. None of those other outbreaks proved to be as contagious as this if I remember correctly. 
 

NCAA oh noes lol

[abdcskins]

5 minutes ago, Hooper said:

Dude, there is a legit chance if we don’t slow the spread of this thing down a ton of people could die. People who have been proven right about a lot of this so far are saying 4 million deaths in US alone if we act like this is no big deal. 

 

I was not aware of that.  4 million though?  I am guessing 1,000 at most.

[TradeTheBeal!]

10 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

I don't understand, do we shut things down during flu season?  People stop going to work?  I don't recall this happening during the Avian flu or H1N1 or any other outbreak.  I don't claim to be an epidemiologist, but this seems like mass hysteria nonsense.  If they cancel the NCAA tournament I'll be super angry 😡

 

This isn’t the flu.  Not even close.

 

[Isifhan]

3 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

I own a small business but thus far i’ve only seen slight impacts.... but i have a feeling that it’s going to get worse. My employees go to peoples houses and i doubt people are going to want strangers in their house..   Luckily i have a bit of cash savings in the business... i survived the banking crisis and i sort of doubt this will be much worse than that... i’m not worried about it yet, there’s not a whole lot you can do. If people aren’t spending money, people aren’t spending money,  You have a much tougher situation to deal with, regardless. Hope it works out

Thanks - I guess we'll see how it goes. I have reserves but if two months of dates go poof that's definitely trouble.  Some dates may be resceduled but there's a good chance a lot won't.  Hope you weather the storm as well. 

[StillUnknown]

 

 

damn every single one of you ****es that voted for that dude

[daveakl]

4 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

I was not aware of that.  4 million though?  I am guessing 1,000 at most.

827 in Italy so far. We are behind them in terms of time. I.E. if they are at day 20 we are at day 5. Expect it to get worse.

[tshile]

How does Tom Hanks deliver a more presidential statement than the president?

 

read that thing. 
 

compare it to whatever trump just did. 
 

 

[StillUnknown]

1 minute ago, tshile said:

How does Tom Hanks deliver a more presidential statement than the president?

 

read that thing. 
 

compare it to whatever trump just did. 
 

 

 

seriously, throw his ass on a golf course and tell secret service not to let him leave until we get a handle on this ****.

[PCS]

 

 

 

 

[dfitzo53]

I teach math.

 

Every once in a while I have a student who I have an enormously difficult time helping.  Attempts to break things down into the simplest possible terms I can imagine meet with blank stares.  I try my absolute best, but I know a lot is going over their heads.

 

That is Trump supporters, except about everything, not just math.

[visionary]

 

[tshile]

19 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

I was not aware of that.  4 million though?  I am guessing 1,000 at most.

With the infection rate and hospitalization rate, how do you justify 1,000?

 

are those deaths just for people that contract the virus, or are you including then number of people that will die because they needed ICU care for another reason but the care was not available because of the virus?

Edited March 12, 2020 by tshile

[Renegade7]

2 hours ago, Dr. Do Itch Big said:

Want to bet my team will have a better record next year?

 

Honestly, I'd lose that bet. Jus woke up and saw NBA suspended the season, so first thing first, I guess : /

[visionary]

 

 

 

[tshile]

They said on msnbc 35 million people are hospitalized in a system that can only hospitalize a million or two (forever exact numbers, but they gave it)

 

that’s how many people move through the system in a year and gives you an idea of the scale of the system to handle it

 

now add this to that. Because that doesn’t go away just because we got c19

 

the elective stuff will. 

[Destino]

13 minutes ago, dfitzo53 said:

I teach math.

 

Every once in a while I have a student who I have an enormously difficult time helping.  Attempts to break things down into the simplest possible terms I can imagine meet with blank stares.  I try my absolute best, but I know a lot is going over their heads.

 

That is Trump supporters, except about everything, not just math.

They act like cultists IMO.  You look at their daily lives and a lot of them have found personal success.  They should be smarter than this.  The problem is that they want to believe their cult leader so strongly, that they do.  Even the most obvious of lies are received without doubt.  They get extremely defensive with anyone that challenges these beliefs and immediately assume outsiders and nonbelievers are out to get them.  Look how readily they accept the most ridiculous of conspiracy theories.  

 

if you had this exact same behavior taking place in a compound in Texas, we’d know exactly what we were dealing with.  just like with cults, outsiders don’t get the appeal.  It looks absurd and we can’t understand why these otherwise normal people would choose this for themselves.  
 

Trump missed his calling, and we’d all be better off if he had built a commune in the jungle instead.  

[visionary]

 

[LadySkinsFan]

I never trust Trump, especially with this kind of thing.

 

He wants to report low numbers because he thinks it makes him look good. He's doing the bare minimum to try and get a handle on this virus. 

 

Thank goodness the House is thinking about We the People. Trump will veto it if Moscow Mitch lets it out of the Senate. 

 

 

[DCSaints_fan]

38 minutes ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Coronavirus.

 

I wonder if a player got coronavirus and he played in front of a full stadium; is it possible the fans watching the game were exposed or is it thru physical contact only?

 

Well there was that time Larry David tripped Shaquille O'Neal (accidentally of course) so i think its definitely possible

 

 

 

[visionary]

 

 

 

 

Edited March 12, 2020 by visionary

[DogofWar1]

16 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

I was not aware of that.  4 million though?  I am guessing 1,000 at most.

It probably won't get THAT bad, but 1,000 is very wishful thinking.

 

So there are two things that make this thing deadly, it's R0 and it's mortality rate.  R0 is a measure of how many people are infected per infected person, so for example, a disease with an R0 of 2 means each infected person will on average infect 2 other people.  Average transmissability is important too, because there are things called "super spreaders" who infect a TON of people, while most cases are less or not infectious (SARS had this, some people were super infectious, others much less so, which helped limit spread because % of people spreading it was low).

 

Seasonal flu has an R0 of around 1.3.

 

Covid's is likely a bit north of 3.  I saw 3.8, but estimates range from 1.8 to 4ish.  But basically it's more transmisible than the flu.  It's also unlikely to be spread via super spreaders just given how worldwide it is; too many people are infectious for it to only a be small % of infected spreading it.

 

Then you have mortality rate.  Mortality rate of seasonal flu is around 0.1%.  So if a million people caught the flu, we'd expect about 1,000 deaths.

 

Covid's was pegged at 3.4%.  It might be lower, and probably is because cases inevitably slip through, but anything anywhere near 1% is scary.

 

Basically, while containment procedures aren't in place, we would expect the number of Covid cases to triple week to week.  That's what other countries have seen and we'll likely see it here too.

 

So the US has roughly 1,000 cases now, right (probably a lot more due to our crappy testing)?  If spread triples week to week, we'd have 3K next week, 9K in 2 weeks, 27K in 3 weeks, 81K in a month, 243K in 5 weeks, 729K in 6 weeks, and over 2.1M cases in 7 weeks.  If that keeps going, in under 3 months every person who could get it in the US likely would.

 

Mix that with even a 2% mortality rate, and you see why this is scary. 

 

If 10M get infected with 2% mortality, that 200,000 people dead.  If 25M are infected, that's the population of Wyoming, dead.

 

And it would take only about 9 and a half weeks to reach 25M infected from 1000 infected due to spread.

 

Further, if the total population mortality rate is 2% or so, imagine how high it is among elderly.  Would be like 7-10%.  Imagine 10% of the elderly in the USA just dying off in the next 3 months.  If we don't stop the spread, it's not impossible.

 

Hence why everyone is taking this deathly seriously.

[visionary]

1 hour ago, Mr. Sinister said:

 

Her most infuriating response (among many) to me... "You only live once."

 

I am truly dejected

 

 

 

[Larry]

27 minutes ago, abdcskins said:

 

I was not aware of that.  4 million though?  I am guessing 1,000 at most.

 

One source I see says Italy has had 800 deaths so far. (And they are doing vastly more to reduce spread than we are.)

 

They have 1/6 the population of the US. 

[visionary]