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BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic


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1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

Anyone laying full blame or even a majority of the blame for how big this in the US on China as the primary culprit is just not looking at the entire picture. Sure, they own some of it no doubt. But we should not have been relying on them to begin with. Other countries figured it out. Why didn't we? Answer? Our toddler in chief!

 

My general, vague, based strictly on opinion, lots of other disclaimers opinion is that Trump is responsible for about half of the damage this thing has done to us.  (Assuming he doesn't **** things up any more, which he's making noises about doing.)  

 

Or, another way, I figure he doubled the damage.  (The first half, probably would have happened even with a competent response.)  

 

1 hour ago, Springfield said:

One thing I think we should all agree on is that we can never return to "normal" until we have rapid and accurate testing so we can almost instantly find out if someone is infected with covid.  Why we haven't accomplished this yet is appalling.  It's like it isn't even on the radar.

 

 

Get the feeling that Trump, his entire administration, and the entire alternate reality machine is about to disagree with you.  

 

Edited by Larry
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The irony is that Trump was ever going to be really tough on China, now would be the time and it would be met with bipartisan support. I don't see any reason to trust China about anything with regard to Coronavirus. There is zero chance their numbers are close to accurate. 

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Figures from 4.1.20 through 4.12.20: (1) total # of confirmed infections, (2) daily new infections, and (3) percentage increase from prior day. Chart is mine, data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

image.png.0767a349f591f3ad20583dbd3917a6f4.png

 

Line graph showing the number of new infections from 4.1.20 through 4.12.20.  Graph is mine, data taken from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

 

image.png.1447e7b4f0983b5e0ae150057014fdb5.png

 

For 11 out of that last 12 days, we have seen a decrease in the rate of new infections.  And now, for the past 3 days we have a decrease in the total number of new infections, with a general leveling off over the same 12 day period.  I'd like to see a 5 day streak of decreases in the total number of new infections before its time to declare it a trend, but the data is encouraging.

 

 

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8 minutes ago, kfrankie said:

For 11 out of that last 12 days, we have seen a decrease in the rate of new infections.  And now, for the past 3 days we have a decrease in the total number of new infections, with a general leveling off over the same 12 day period.  I'd like to see a 5 day streak of decreases in the total number of new infections before its time to declare it a trend, but the data is encouraging.


it is but testing is still backlogged in a variety of ways. 
 

and, moving forward, if we declare things better before we can test everyone on a reasonable time table we’re opening up the door for a quick second wave. 
 

cause as soon as they life the stay at home orders everyone’s going to rush out. The desire to return to “normal” is overwhelming. 
 

we’re talking about continuing it for at least 3 weeks after the order is lifted just to see if a second wave picks up...

 

being able to test everyone would definitely help prevent that...

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48 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

While I agree about the lies, disinformation and everything that comes out of China, our leaders are definately to blame as well for slow reacting. As well as WHO.

 

To be clear, I went ballistic this morning on the notion of giving China credit for anything right now.  

 

That absolutely can be separate then the the US response that could be outperformed by a low-budget syfy movie script.

 

Federal government was more prepared and functional in the Sharknado sequels then this BS.

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56 minutes ago, Larry said:

@CousinsCowgirl84 "Fake News" tweet:

 

Just wondering what your point was, in posting those two tweets.  

 


my point was Trump retweeted a call to fire fauci...

 

However, when I listened to what fauci actually said it didn’t sound that critical of trump. More of just pointing out the now obvious

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56 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Trumpers:  It’s just a flu and media hype to destroy Trump.  Open the country now!

 

Also Trumpers:  Fauci screwed us by not hitting the panic button in January.

RIP Dr. Fauci. How dare he contradict Dr. Trump. I think the good doctor will be fired by Friday. 

 

Let's say the country or at least the red states, open when Trump wants to. What's he and his cult going to do, if the virus flares up and starts spreading everywhere in Red States? 

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5 minutes ago, tshile said:


it is but testing is still backlogged in a variety of ways. 
 

and, moving forward, if we declare things better before we can test everyone on a reasonable time table we’re opening up the door for a quick second wave. 
 

cause as soon as they life the stay at home orders everyone’s going to rush out. The desire to return to “normal” is overwhelming. 
 

we’re talking about continuing it for at least 3 weeks after the order is lifted just to see if a second wave picks up...

 

being able to test everyone would definitely help prevent that...

 

Yes, agreed.  Stay at home should remain the protocol through at least the end of May 2020.  That should also give us time to determine whether warmer weather will have an effect on the virus (as predicted), whether the presence of antibodies is a true indicator of immunity (as initially indicated), and the opportunity to continue ramping up testing numbers and testing turn around time.

 

Whats frustrating to me is that most of this will likely have to come at the State level.  A national sheltering policy would be ideal, with adjustments as needed depending on circumstances of each state and input from state health officials. A strong federal policy would also be the best way to distribute supplies and testing resources.  What we're seeing here is the Administration pushing much of the burden onto the various State governments, their health agencies and employees, and perhaps more importantly, underutilizing those employed at the federal level.  I'd be willing to bet there is still quite a bit of frustration among those professionals. 

 

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CDC says seasonal cases of the flu are in sharp decline. Seems like an obvious positive side effect of all of this

 

when this is over it’d be interesting to see what a stay at home program could do to lower things like the flu. Since so many people now seem to be concerned about the flu numbers. (lol)

 

I could see it being a seasonal thing that, with enough planning and thought, could be significantly less disruptive but also help for the less extreme situations. 
 

and serve as a framework and readiness program for when someone like this happens again. 

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I haven't read every single page, but have we talked about this yet? 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-11/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-in-six-months-times


 

Quote

 

A vaccine against the coronavirus could be ready by September, according to a scientist leading one of Britain’s most advanced teams.

 

Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times on Saturday that she is “80% confident” the vaccine would work, and could be ready by September. Experts have warned the public that vaccines typically take years to develop, and one for the coronavirus could take between 12 to 18 months at best.

 

In the case of the Oxford team, however, “it’s not just a hunch, and as every week goes by we have more data to look at,” Gilbert told the London newspaper. Gilbert’s team is one of dozens worldwide working on a vaccine and is the most advanced in Britain, she told the Times. As the country looks set to begin its fourth week under lockdown, a vaccine could be fundamental in easing the measures and returning to normal life. Gilbert said human trials are due to start in the next two weeks. 

 

[...]

 

Manufacturing the millions of vaccine doses necessary could take months. Gilbert said she’s in discussions with the British government about funding, and starting production before the final results are in, allowing the public to access the vaccine immediately if it proves to work. She said success by the autumn was “just about possible if everything goes perfectly.”

 

 

This all seemed too good to be true until I read a little further into what her colleagues in the field had to say about her previous work and how these trials could progress:

 

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-times-interview-about-vaccines-with-prof-sarah-gilbert/

 

The reality is that the average person likely cannot expect to get a vaccine this year, no matter what anyone is saying right now. If a vaccine is "ready" by October, that does not account for manufacturing and shipping time. I think January is optimistic but not baseless and would still make this one of the fastest-developed vaccines in history.

 

The 18 month timetable we were given 2 months ago is sounding increasingly conservative and out of touch with the current situation. We're very fortunate that the development of vaccines for previous coronavirus-based illnesses like SARS and MERS could expedite the process significantly because of their shared mechanisms.

 

Moderna's vaccine coming out of Texas is actually based on the MERS vaccine they developed and is already being tested on humans. If that one proves viable, it could be ready before the Oxford vaccine. What it's availability would be, I have no idea. Sarah Gilbert and her team at Oxford are very respected and have developed flu vaccines in the past, so I know they have the connections to get a COVID-19 vaccine out in record time.

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CHINESE AIRCRAFT CARRIER SAILS INTO PACIFIC AS STATE MEDIA MOCK U.S. NAVY'S CORONAVIRUS TROUBLES

 

hina's first aircraft carrier has sailed near disputed waters in the Pacific Ocean as the country's state-run media praised the country's military response to the novel coronavirus while it appeared to mock the United States' struggle with it.

 

People's Liberation Army Navy spokesperson Senior Captain Gao Xiucheng confirmed Monday that Chinese Type 001 aircraft carrier Liaoning and its five accompanying warships had transited the Miyako Strait between Japan's Ryukyu Islands and the Bashi Channel east of Taiwan toward the South China Sea as part of "routine" training maneuvers that kept both Tokyo and Taipei on edge over the weekend. The Japanese Defense Ministry said Saturday it was monitoring the Chinese maritime movements and its Taiwanese counterpart scrambled ships Sunday to surveil the exercises.

 

China, which has laid vast territorial claims off its coast and considers Taiwan a breakaway province, has sought to boost its military presence in the seas of East Asia. The ruling Chinese Communist Party's Global Times newspaper cited analysts as saying Sunday that the Liaoning's deployment showcases China's successful fight against COVID-19, particularly at a time when foreign aircraft carriers such as the U.S. Navy's USS Theodore Roosevelt, USS Ronald Reagan, USS Carl Vinson and USS Nimitz had sailors testing positive for the coronavirus disease. The Navy reported Monday that one unidentified sailor from the USS Theodore Roosevelt died from the virus, which is believed to have originated in China late last year and official records show has since infected more people in the U.S. than in any other country.

 

The Global Times further highlighted the Pentagon's struggles Monday with an op-ed by Peking University Center for Maritime Strategy Studies director Hu Bo.

"As the most powerful military force in the world, with the highest level of combat readiness, the US military's failure to contain the virus has been disappointing," Hu wrote. "There are [a] number of reasons for this, such as the large number of personnel deployed overseas, poor military-political relations, and the absence preparedness. The crux of the problem, however, lies in the fact that the US military is facing a dilemma that is impossible to deal with. The US military and intelligence system realized early on the severity of the epidemic and took control measures, while repeatedly warning the White House and the Pentagon."

 

Click on the link for the full article

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For all the talk of what China did in Wuhan, we have an example from a non-totalitarian government that works in South Korea.  With massive testing and data that people willingly give to Google and Apple, South Korea now has less than 50 new cases per day. 

 

If people want to see what flattening the curve looks like, South Korea went from 31 cases in Feb 18 to 9800+ cases by April first.  From April 1st to now, they have about 700 new cases with new cases hovering around mid 20 to 30 in recent days.  

 

The only way we are going to get through this is test, test, and more test.

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South Korea has tested a little more than 550k while we have tested over 3 million people.  They have tested around 10k/mil and is 8,5k/mill.

 

i agree more testing is needed, especially antibody tests but I don’t think the US testing has been worse than south Korea’s. They have a lot less people and geography to cover.

 

 

China is a better comparison but you can’t trust their numbers. The draconian measures as an objection to comparing our result to theirs don’t really hold up on since most Americans were willing to freely follow CDC guidance, as soon as they were told what to do. 

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16 minutes ago, bearrock said:

For all the talk of what China did in Wuhan, we have an example from a non-totalitarian government that works in South Korea.  With massive testing and data that people willingly give to Google and Apple, South Korea now has less than 50 new cases per day. 

 

If people want to see what flattening the curve looks like, South Korea went from 31 cases in Feb 18 to 9800+ cases by April first.  From April 1st to now, they have about 700 new cases with new cases hovering around mid 20 to 30 in recent days.  

 

The only way we are going to get through this is test, test, and more test.

 

Has there been an explanation why more testing isn't being done here? I saw the report last week the US Govt was going to shut down some testing sites last Friday. Not sure if that actually happened.

 

 

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What is the federal government going to do if a governor orders restaurants ect to remain closed and police write tickets to restaurants that don’t follow the governors orders.

 

 

also,  what companies are going to want to be seen as undervaluing the safety of their employees/customers.

 

 

i don’t see it happening so I don’t get the point.

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21 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

South Korea has tested a little more than 550k while we have tested over 3 million people.  They have tested around 10k/mil and is 8,5k/mill.

 

i agree more testing is needed, especially antibody tests but I don’t think the US testing has been worse than south Korea’s. They have a lot less people and geography to cover.

This is just....   The testing done in South Korea was light years ahead of that in the US when this started out.  How in does it make any sense to compare how many have been tested now when it’s been all over the country for months and has barely been an issue in South Korea for a while?

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