BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[No Excuses]

It’s kind of disappointing to read an otherwise sensible poster just posting complete nonsense. No this is not the flu or even “flu-like”. And saying this will “go away” like H1N1 is also just complete nonsense. 
 

We actually don’t know if this will go away or not. But we do know that this is far more infectious that the first SARS outbreak while being less lethal. That’s actually not a good thing. It’s so infectious that it’s taking hospitals even in developed countries to beyond peak capacity in a timespan that is unsustainable. We don’t know how this virus will mutate and if it will reoccur as seasons change. I suspect how much we can control this depends in large part on how it’s controlled in poorly developed countries. If Iran and India can’t get a handle on this, then the long-term narrative changes quite significantly. And then on top, will people who built immunity in the short term, remain immune long-term? Probably not. How effective will vaccinations be? 
 

We are pretty much doing science on the fly against a viral infection that is magnitudes more deadly and infectious than any other respiratory illness that broadly circulates in human populations. Yes, extreme caution is warranted. And yes, you’re an absolute idiot if you keep trying to compare this to past pandemics.

[skinsmarydu]

I don't wanna freak anyone out, but just as No Excuses was posting...

Clint Watts just reiterated Jumbo's post about this. It was a ways back. That gave me the eeby jeebies. 

[PeterMP]

7 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

It could certainly be the case that Hubei got super hard hit, as the epicenter, but that massive under-recognition of the scope of the spread is leading to overestimates in the mortality rate.  I think this is likely, and if that's closer to the reality most of the world will experience, then that's not super different than what we experienced with H1N1.  However, unlike with swine flu, this virus seems to target the elderly and skip kids.  That likely means more people will die, even in developed nations due to the acute vulnerability of the targeted population, but it does not mean that the vast majority of people will experience much worse courses of disease as a result of Covid 19 infection.  The vast majority of people who get infected aren't going to need hospitalization or intensive care.  They will experience something that is very much like a seasonal flu.

 

The mortality rate for H1N1 in the US has been estimated to be only 0.02% in the US.  Even if Covid-19 is 0.4% that's still 20X what we experienced for H1N1. 

 

Older people had antibodies that were active against H1N1.  At some time in the past, there must have been a similar virus that gave them some immunity.  That's why it didn't hit them hard.

 

And then there's a corresponding increase in the hospitalization rate that has a trickle down effect on the severity of all sorts of other illnesses that people would normally go to the hospital for.

 

Is western civilization going to collapse, no, but if act like we did during H1N1 a lot more people are likely to die, be very sick, and have issues getting access to good healthcare.

 

Is it an apocalypse causing event?  No.

 

Does it appear to have the potential to be worse than anything in my lifetime?  Yes.

 

(And realistically anything worse since 1918, and I'm not sure if you take out the effects of WW1 on the 1918 flu even worse than that.)

Edited March 19, 2020 by PeterMP

[StillUnknown]

39 minutes ago, TryTheBeal! said:

Which one is more disingenuous and pathetic...calling COVID-19 the “Chinese virus” or calling it “the flu”?

 

I’m leaning “Flu”.

 

Calling it the "chinese virus" only creates an enemy and endangers everyone of Asian descent. Racists arent exactly asking questions to make sure they got the right nationality they are trying to abuse. In a pandemic they really cant control, they will resort to the lowest denominator and attack people because their cult leader gave them the signal

[twa]

all asians are chinese now?

[bcl05]

1 minute ago, twa said:

all asians are chinese now?

 

No, but racists are stupid.  

[EmirOfShmo]

8 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

Calling it the "chinese virus" only creates an enemy and endangers everyone of Asian descent. Racists arent exactly asking questions to make sure they got the right nationality they are trying to abuse. In a pandemic they really cant control, they will resort to the lowest denominator and attack people because their cult leader gave them the signal

It's classic White House Occupant deflection to take the spotlight off his bumbling of this crisis. 

[First Colony]

16 hours ago, Momma There Goes That Man said:

there had better be some lays sea salt and cracked pepper kettle cooked chips when I get to Walmart this evening. 
 

 

 

So, were they there?

[spjunkies]

This guy is the biggest fraud I've ever seen.

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/donald-trump-leadership-coronavirus/index.html

 

It's a stunning reversal President Donald Trump would like Americans to forget.

 

Only days after dismissing the coronavirus threat as a distraction, he's now assumed the title of a resolute war time president fighting an "invisible enemy" while promising to rally the nation behind him in pursuit of "total victory."

 

Trump's new posture is in response to a crisis that is worsening by the hour and appears to be partly designed to cover up the administration's failures in distributing testing kits that have might help authorities slow the virus' advance.

 

And it is already being undermined by his own actions. He's casting doubt over whether he will actually implement a move to invoke the Defense Production Act -- that he signed on Wednesday and that gives him authority to order industry to work towards homeland defense and national goals. In this case, it could speed the production of badly needed ventilators, masks and other supplies for hospital workers.

 

 

[Larry]

8 minutes ago, twa said:

all asians are chinese now?

To the people being intentionally inspired?  Yes. 
 

And the people doing this, and endorsing it*, know that. 
 

* Yes, that's you. 

[The Sisko]

I'm just wondering what @CousinsCowgirl84 and the other "you're gonna kill the economy over hype" will have to say about this.

 

 

Quote

 

Burr Recording Sparks Questions About Private Comments On COVID-19

A secret recording taken of Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Richard Burr shows him warning a private audience three weeks ago about how the Coronavirus would have dire effects on the U.S.

 

 

So, let me get this right. The Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee compares Coronavirus to the 1918 pandemic in a quiet warning to the "job creators" of his state while at the same time the Liar-in-Chief is telling the country it's no big deal, and yet there are some who still believe it's just all a Democratic hoax. Tell me again about that swamp and how Tя☭mp was going to drain it...by adding more alligators.🙄

 

Aside from that, now that we have Barr's behind the scenes assessment, do you still think it's not a big deal? That just letting folks go on their merry way while millions die and the healthcare system collapses would effect the economy less than trying to save those lives? Viewed as I do, and as emergency management priorities state, saving lives is always a higher priority than property/money. However, from the purely dollars and cents economic standpoint which some of you seem to have, are you still willing to say it's not worth it? At what point will you change your tune, because I suspect most of you will. Now, here's what I'd like you to think about. When the time comes that you finally, agree that the response was/is worth it, how many additional lives would have been lost if you were the ones in charge and waited until your blinders fell off to do anything?

 

1 hour ago, skinsmarydu said:

I don't wanna freak anyone out, but just as No Excuses was posting...

Clint Watts just reiterated Jumbo's post about this. It was a ways back. That gave me the eeby jeebies. 

Which posts are you talking about? I didn't see anything on the last couple of pages nor in a search of the thread. Thanks.

Edited March 19, 2020 by The Sisko

[The Sisko]

Deleted - Double post.

Edited March 19, 2020 by The Sisko

[CousinsCowgirl84]

First of all, I said we should have a discussion about whether the hype (there is always hype, no matter how severe the reality, remember the dirty bomb fears post 9-11???) does more damage that the actually virus.

My guess is that the economic damage will be greater than the virus from the disease, but that’s not a hill i’d die on.  It seems insane to close literally everything based on 1-2 percent of the population, but people smarter than me are making those decisions, so the most I can do is think about it.

 

if the outcome is that 100,000 are infected and 10k die in the us, which I think is what reasonable people think is the outcome (heard it on the news this morning) the world economic crisis will likely cause more deaths.

 

secondly, trump is unreasonable and shortsighted. It’s not surprising that people under him him aren’t complete buffoons privately share their concerns...

Edited March 19, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[FrFan]

As the coronavirus spreads, a drug that once raised the world’s hopes is given a second shot

“There’s only one drug right now that we think may have real efficacy,” Bruce Aylward of the World Health Organization said last month. “And that’s remdesivir.”

Remdesivir has been able to advance into clinical studies so quickly for two key reasons. For one, thanks to its use in Ebola, it was known to be generally safe in humans. And two, it had a large body of preclinical evidence — that is, data from studies in cells in lab experiments and in infected animals — that indicated it could temper coronavirus infections. One study published just last month by researchers from Gilead and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases showed remdesivir inhibited the replication of MERS, a related coronavirus, in infected monkeys.

French lab offers ‘millions of doses’ of Covid-19 drug

 

 

[TheGoodBits]

3 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

if the outcome is that 100,000 are infected and 10k die in the us, which I think is what reasonable people think is the outcome (heard it on the news this morning) the world economic crisis will likely cause more deaths.

...

That’s not the most likely outcome. That case count is one we’re going to blow past in the next 3 weeks. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

1 minute ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

That’s not the most likely outcome. That case count is one we’re going to blow past in the next 3 weeks. 

no, the forecasts you are worried about are worst case with no quarantines/social distancing, ect. We are doing those things to limit the outbreak....

Edited March 19, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[TheGoodBits]

7 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

no, the forecasts you are worried about are worst case with no quarantines/social distancing, ect. We are doing those things to limit the outbreak....

 

Incorrect. The worst case you’re talking about with no measures are 100-1000x worse. 

We hit 9k cases yesterday. Guessing it will be 15k ish today (+/- 2k). We started getting *sort of* serious about social distancing 6 days ago. Case increases for the next 3-4 weeks are locked in already due to the delayed onset of symptoms. Even after that, it’s going to take a lot of people getting a lot more serious about this to really start to flatten the curve. 
 

Look at Italy... they locked down their entire country two? weeks ago and they’re still seeing massive case increases daily. That’s going to be us for the next month. We’ll be well past 100k cases by mid April. And that’s just the beginning of this. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by skinsfan_1215

[bcl05]

2 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

no, the forecasts you are worried about are worst case with no quarantines/social distancing, ect. We are doing those things to limit the outbreak....

 

Exactly.  And why your question about whether the economic disruption is worth it for only 10,000 deaths is misguided.  The number of illnesses and deaths is directly related to the social distancing and economic disruption.  We are now choosing to economic disruption in order to avoid huge numbers of deaths (which would also be wildly economically disruptive).  We had an opportunity to avoid both huge case numbers and huge economic disruption (we couldn't have avoided either altogether) early if we had adequate leadership and competence in government.  But we don't, so now our options are worse.  

 

Also, I still think numbers are going to go far past 100,000 sick/10,000 dead.  Also, there is emerging evidence that people who recover from this are at high risk long term for progressive pulmonary fibrosis, which is terrible.

 

 

[No Excuses]

It’s not a difficult concept to understand. Economic disruption in the short term is needed to prevent long lasting damage to the healthcare system. If you don’t take these measures now, we risk facing an unthinkable collapse of healthcare delivery which will have severe effects on people with all other kinds of illnesses. 
 

China’s economy seems to be getting back online just fine after a pretty serious shut down over two months. South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan contained the outbreak without mass shutdowns. The only way to prevent serious economic damage is by actually combating the virus, not shrugging your shoulders and saying stupid things. 

[PCS]

 

[TheGoodBits]

18 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

It’s not a difficult concept to understand. Economic disruption in the short term is needed to prevent long lasting damage to the healthcare system. If you don’t take these measures now, we risk facing an unthinkable collapse of healthcare delivery which will have severe effects on people with all other kinds of illnesses. 
 

China’s economy seems to be getting back online just fine after a pretty serious shut down over two months. South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan contained the outbreak without mass shutdowns. The only way to prevent serious economic damage is by actually combating the virus, not shrugging your shoulders and saying stupid things. 

We have the possibility of getting back to “normal” IF and this is a huuuugggee IF... 

 

-we take over-aggressive quarantine measures like China and Italy, not like what we’re doing. This will help limit the infections to just those that are already infected and stop the aggressive, exponential growth we’re seeing. 
 

AND
 

-most important, test the **** out of our population. Aggressively over-test anyone and everyone who is slightly ill and then quarantine anyone they’ve been in contact with recently. It’s unclear when or whether we’ll have this capability. But we should be talking about mobilizing the military to help with this effort, because we’re going to have to scale this rapidly and it’s going to take a ton of manpower that we don’t have. 
 

If we can pull that off, in 3-4 months we can start to get back to normal. But every week we delay that first step of shutting everything down, it delays how long it will be until we can start recovering. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by skinsfan_1215

[skinsfan999]

23 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

no, the forecasts you are worried about are worst case with no quarantines/social distancing, ect. We are doing those things to limit the outbreak....

 

Not everyone is following the whole social distancing thing:

 

https://www.cnn.com/videos/health/2020/03/17/clearwater-beach-spring-break-coronavirus-mxp-vpx.hln 

[88Comrade2000]

2 hours ago, spjunkies said:

 

https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/19/politics/donald-trump-leadership-coronavirus/index.html

 

It's a stunning reversal President Donald Trump would like Americans to forget.

 

Only days after dismissing the coronavirus threat as a distraction, he's now assumed the title of a resolute war time president fighting an "invisible enemy" while promising to rally the nation behind him in pursuit of "total victory."

 

 

He will never rally the whole nation.

Only the Trumpsters will rally behind him. The rest of us will ignore whatever is coming out of his lying 👄 mouth. We will pay attention and rally behind the experts. The ones who know what they are doing and are telling us the real truths and what we need to be doing in this crisis.

 

When Time magazine does their annual person of the year; they will choose all the medical people & scientists who are working to mitigate and end this crisis. We will rally around them.

Edited March 19, 2020 by Rdskns2000

[bearrock]

I think a good, but not overly optimistic outcome would be 1 month hard shutdown, followed by 1 month very aggressive social distancing, and then cautious social distancing combined with heavy testing capacity until treatment or vaccine is developed.

 

That would give us a 2 solid month to really focus on ramping up testing and treatment capacity while holding down the spread as much as possible.  Countries like China and South Korea is showing that once you have everyone aware with heavy testing capacity and a tamped down outbreak, you can still lead a semblance of a normal life.

[The Sisko]

1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

First of all, I said we should have a discussion about whether the hype (there is always hype, no matter how severe the reality, remember the dirty bomb fears post 9-11???) does more damage that the actually virus.

My guess is that the economic damage will be greater than the virus from the disease, but that’s not a hill i’d die on.  It seems insane to close literally everything based on 1-2 percent of the population, but people smarter than me are making those decisions, so the most I can do is think about it.

 

if the outcome is that 100,000 are infected and 10k die in the us, which I think is what reasonable people think is the outcome (heard it on the news this morning) the world economic crisis will likely cause more deaths.

Did you actually listen to the audio? The Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee, who might just have access to a little more information than any of us, and who has a prior interest in preparedness, said coronavirus compares in severity to the 1918 pandemic. You might want to research how severe that was and reconsider your estimates of the numbers. Of note, there are a number of case studies of localities that quickly implemented strict social distancing and those that didn't. It's worth looking up. Or maybe you can just shrug it off by saying the deep state got to Barr too.🙄

 

Either way, I'd be curious to know how you personally are behaving. Are you planning to go to church on Sunday? Any other large gatherings? If you're that sure that it's not a big deal, there's no point in staying home. Prove us egg-headed chicken little libs wrong with your own personal example.