BBC: China pneumonia outbreak: COVID-19 Global Pandemic

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

Ok, I'll play along.  its just a more intense version of the flu.   About 20x more intense.  But hey no big deal.    When there aren't enough ICU beds to go around, I'm sure the hospitals won't have any ethical dilemma about who gets kicked the curb/left to die.   Over 75?  Sux2bu,, we need that ICU bed for someone with a higher chance or survival.   Can't pay? GTFO, we're only caring for someone who contributes to society enough reimburse us.   Half our hospital staff is out with Covid-19?  Or maybe quit due to stress/overwork?  Well too bad, we can't treat everyone like we use to.  Get in a car acccident?  Injuries aren't severe enough, we have to treat more severe patients, GTFO. 

 

@stevemcqueen1

 

And again, it just isn't the deaths.  There are people that have their lungs damaged by the flu that never fully recover.  Every expectation and early evidence suggest that is worse with this virus (because it seems to have affect people longer and deeper in the lungs).  There are people that are healthy and even athletic people that will live through this will never have a normal life again.

 

Even moderate exercise will be an issue because of lung function, and the inability to even do moderate exercise gives rise to a whole lot of issues.  There will be people that will die decades from now earlier than they would have if not infected with this virus and on paper it will go down as something else (diabetes, heart attack, etc.), but this virus will have been a contributing factor.

 

And the flu, and this can infect a number of other organs/tissues, including the central nervous system.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-xl/news/other/techchina-beijing-hospital-confirms-nervous-system-infections-by-novel-coronavirus/ar-BB10M4PQ

 

We really have no idea of the longer term implications of this.  A big part of us getting through the flu every year is because 50% of the population gets vaccinated every year, and even those that don't have some historical immunity.

 

That's also not happening here.

Edited March 19, 2020 by PeterMP

[zCommander]

43 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

In the pic, they seem to be saying there are, in fact, two cases. 

 

No. You are incorrect. Each person has two cases. That would be 10 instead. You are welcome.

[Renegade7]

I'm not entertaining anyone thinking this is a joke, none of us will be laughing soon.  

[PeterMP]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

this is the result of allowing people to question various scientific topics over the decades without any credentials, either disputing or offering counter theories to compete against theories formed by people with formal educations and decades of experience in the field. 

 

We badly need to have a philosophy of science class as part of the general education system in this country and again in higher education.   You should not be able to graduate from college with a science related degree (including nursing, any pre-med associated degree, engineering, etc.) without having a philosophy of science class.  And I've only ever seen one taught in my time in higher education, and it was taught as a grad class.

 

Way too many think that because they've had some science classes that they think they understand science.

[GoCommiesGo]

7 minutes ago, Gibbit said:

That doesn't answer my question. What did you want to happen when some vague info was coming out of china? Weve never really been affected by this coronavirus stuff

 

Shut down borders immediately? Social distance? (bye bye economy...way of life...get ready for recession/depression) get testing kits to test everyone? ( cdc requires vetting which requires a lot of time) Rules they've got to change in these times

 

Initially starting to setup testing procedures in January when the first case was seen in the us. 
 

Communicating to the public about the infection and ways to minimize the transmit disease earlier in the process, think early mid February. 
 

Generally better communication to the public much earlier in the process regarding the virus. ideally not trying to minimize the virus in late February. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

even if by some miracle the flu is not as bad as it seems we’ve made sure the economic impact will be

[twa]

2 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I'm not entertaining anyone thinking this is a joke, none of us will be laughing soon.  

 

I will, I'm a dead man walking.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, twa said:

 

I will, I'm a dead man walking.

 

A lot of people give you crap, but I don't wish that on you.

[Gibbit]

11 minutes ago, PCS said:

We'll see about that half million. Been told the check's in the mail a few times by these folks. As for the rules,that's mostly untrue as well. 

its not untrue. private labs here couldn't produce their own tests until approved by the cdc, because they were more afraid of false results. Where as SK disregarded the chance of false tests, allowed private labs produce tests for use and used a cross check of different tests to hopefully eliminate errors.  

[twa]

Just now, Renegade7 said:

 

A lot of people give you crap, but I don't wish that on you.

 

it might be a relief at this point, ya sadist.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 minutes ago, Gibbit said:

its not untrue. private labs here couldn't produce their own tests until approved by the cdc, because they were more afraid of false results. Where as SK disregarded the chance of false tests, allowed private labs produce tests for use and used a cross check of different tests to hopefully eliminate errors.  

 

 

what’s the advantage of reducing false positives when the only treatments is to quarantine someone...

[Gibbit]

8 minutes ago, GoSkinsGo said:

Initially starting to setup testing procedures in January when the first case was seen in the us. 
 

Communicating to the public about the infection and ways to minimize the transmit disease earlier in the process, think early mid February. 
 

Generally better communication to the public much earlier in the process regarding the virus. ideally not trying to minimize the virus in late February. 

See that's why I think hindsight is 20/20 with this. I spoke with a doctor last weekend that told me its all way overblown....because im guessing were on east coast and haven't been effected too much yet.  I just don't recall hearing docs in the US that were calling for end of the world scenarios a month ago.  

4 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

what’s the advantage of reducing false positives when the only treatments is to quarantine someone...

I don't know ask the cdc. They require(d) a long vetting procedure

[bcl05]

2 minutes ago, Gibbit said:

 I just don't recall hearing docs in the US that were calling for end of the world scenarios a month ago.  

 

 

Infectious disease experts absolutely were aware of this virus and very, very worried about its potential in early January.  Word first got out from China at the very end of December.  Experts at my institution (and many others) make it their job to monitor for emerging infectious threats.  They noticed this one right away and recognized that it could be very problematic.  The problem was that no one in real governmental power listened to them.  Maybe if we still had a pandemic readiness team, things might have worked out better...

[Renegade7]

 

[Gibbit]

10 minutes ago, bcl05 said:

 

Infectious disease experts absolutely were aware of this virus and very, very worried about its potential in early January.  Word first got out from China at the very end of December.  Experts at my institution (and many others) make it their job to monitor for emerging infectious threats.  They noticed this one right away and recognized that it could be very problematic.  The problem was that no one in real governmental power listened to them.  Maybe if we still had a pandemic readiness team, things might have worked out better...

ok so I never heard democrats or republican politicians talking about end of the world scenarios either....man what a victory for the democrats if they had actually listened though huh. They can certainly blame in hindsight though. Still a victory I guess. winning

Edited March 19, 2020 by Gibbit

[Nerm]

20 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

 

 

what’s the advantage of reducing false positives when the only treatments is to quarantine someone...

 

Here is an article that partially addresses your question from a mathematical point of view.

 

Disclaimer: Please understand that the posting of this link does not indicate agreement with the content of the article, or suggest disagreement with the beliefs of anyone reading this thread.

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2020/03/18/the_perils_of_mass_coronavirus_testing_142693.html#2

 

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, bearrock said:

It's far more contagious than the flu with far higher mortality with no targeted treatment.  It's a little more than the flu.  The health experts and those running the government of every affected country aren't panicking because they are stupid.  And totally irresponsible attitude like yours makes the situation that much worse.   

 

The closures/lockdowns and social distancing recommendations are not governments panicking.  It's following the recommended course of action from experts in the field to slow the spread of the disease.  We'll pay as great an economic price as we can bear to save every life we can, and that is the most humane approach we can take.  But the truth is the flu kills around half a million people worldwide every season.  It's a reality we live with.  And it's also true that the vast majority of people who catch this disease will experience it like a nasty case of bronchitis, or a pneumonia with mild to moderate symptoms.  We're not going to have another great depression, we're not going to experience the black death, and society is not going to collapse.  It'll probably run its course much like H1N1 did, we'll develop treatments and vaccines and immunities, and we will move on as we did back then.  The posters in this thread have created an echo chamber of apocalyptic anecdotes that has whipped you all into a panic.  It has caused a profound loss of perspective in here.  It is not healty, nor is it productive.

[tshile]

1 hour ago, Gibbit said:

See that's why I think hindsight is 20/20 with this. I spoke with a doctor last weekend that told me its all way overblown....because im guessing were on east coast and haven't been effected too much yet.  I just don't recall hearing docs in the US that were calling for end of the world scenarios a month ago.  

Ok, here’s the deal. When it was China people thought the numbers being reported and the draconian response were sort of silly and mocked them a bit and it was this thing happening over there that was sort of like this thing that happened a while back that also did t do much here. 
 

then it was Iran and the running joke was the difference between Iran and China was Iran no only lies but they’re also incompetent. See: health minister sweating on tv with covid19 saying they got it under control. Or whoever it was. 
 

-

This is where reality breaks with the people who are still in the “this isn’t a big deal” crowd.
-

 

then it happens In italy and everyone went “oh ****” and started paying attention. Italy is a lot like us. And this has decimated their hospital system. Now France. And the results look pretty devastating. 
 

so yeah, like a month or two ago the whole “it’s the flu” thing was the main consensus. I certainly was following that main consensus back then. 
 

But **** changed and it changed quick. 
 

and some people are still standing around saying “it’s the flu man” while the navy is rolling hospital ships into ports to deal with the ridiculous strain this may put on the hospital system. 

when’s the last time we mobilized hospital ships from the navy for the ****ing flu?

 

Catch up dude. **** changed. It changed quick.
 

there’s no hindsight about it. You’re at the start of it. Not even the middle. Hindsight doesn’t mean a damn thing right now. Pinch yourself or something. 

Edited March 19, 2020 by tshile

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

even if by some miracle the flu is not as bad as it seems we’ve made sure the economic impact will be 

 

This different kind of doomsday predicting isn't healthy or productive either.  Job losses will be steep and painful in the short term, but the markets will recover and people will go back to work after the pandemic passes because the pandemic is the concrete cause of the problem.  This isn't a case of the bulk of middle class American wealth teetering on top of a huge housing bubble and then having that bubble burst.

[CousinsCowgirl84]

12 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

.  We're not going to have another great depression,....  It'll probably run its course much like H1N1 did,

 

 

 

Im pretty sure an economic collapse is a given at this point.  Social distancing and all, i get it, but did you look outside? All the restaurants are closed, gyms and theatres shuttered, factories and office buildings shutting down, all three major auto manufactures stopping production, the stock market failing which reduces large companies like boeing’s assets which makes them insolvent (stock buybacks are ASSETS) none of that happened like H1N1... The economic price we will pay for this can’t be understated. 
 

 

Low oil prices have the potential to greatly distabilize the middle east.  6-12 months with oil prices below 12/barrel is a possibility, not sure how well governments which rely on that income to prop up thier governance will survive.  Then you have trump poking china in the eye with the china virus statements coupled with a weak global economy... this thing has a very real possibility of spiraling into something very dark, it’s happened before.

 

Sure eventually the market will recover, but this isn’t a 6 month deal. There are going to be lasting effects.

Edited March 19, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[tshile]

18 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The closures/lockdowns and social distancing recommendations are not governments panicking.  It's following the recommended course of action from experts in the field to slow the spread of the disease.  We'll pay as great an economic price as we can bear to save every life we can, and that is the most humane approach we can take.  But the truth is the flu kills around half a million people worldwide every season.  It's a reality we live with.  And it's also true that the vast majority of people who catch this disease will experience it like a nasty case of bronchitis, or a pneumonia with mild to moderate symptoms.  We're not going to have another great depression, we're not going to experience the black death, and society is not going to collapse.  It'll probably run its course much like H1N1 did, we'll develop treatments and vaccines and immunities, and we will move on as we did back then.  The posters in this thread have created an echo chamber of apocalyptic anecdotes that has whipped you all into a panic.  It has caused a profound loss of perspective in here.  It is not healty, nor is it productive.

your argument sounds good the problem is you brought the flu into it and that means you don’t know what you’re talking about. 
 

it’s kinda like when someone says they don’t link the Clinton’s and follow it up with “have you ever heard of Vincent Foster?”

 

 

 

[tshile]

16 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Im pretty sure an economic collapse is a given at this point.

The problem is I don’t think we have a real model for this. The world is way different and this isn’t a plague. 
 

given what scientists say about global warming and population explosions, this could happen again and sooner than seems plausible. 
 

the underlying fundamentals were fine. Not great but fine. 
 

that’s why people are advocating for policies that essentially freeze the economy in place. 
 

no bills so no bills to miss. If all you do for the next 45 days is go buy groceries and sit at home and wait, and they give you 1000$ or 1500$ to do it, you could make it happen. And In 45 days we pick back up where we left off. Oh and here’s a bill for what your last 45 day trip from reality wound up costing. 
 

it’s harder than that but I think that’s the general idea of what is being proposed. 
 

because the option of pretending it doesn’t matter and walking around in public to save the economy, means a lot of people dying (they think)

Edited March 19, 2020 by tshile

[bearrock]

25 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The closures/lockdowns and social distancing recommendations are not governments panicking.  It's following the recommended course of action from experts in the field to slow the spread of the disease.  We'll pay as great an economic price as we can bear to save every life we can, and that is the most humane approach we can take.  But the truth is the flu kills around half a million people worldwide every season.  It's a reality we live with. 

 

Left unchecked, it will kill half a million people in this country alone (by conservative estimate).  It's not the flu.

 

Quote

And it's also true that the vast majority of people who catch this disease will experience it like a nasty case of bronchitis, or a pneumonia with mild to moderate symptoms.  We're not going to have another great depression, we're not going to experience the black death, and society is not going to collapse.  It'll probably run its course much like H1N1 did, we'll develop treatments and vaccines and immunities, and we will move on as we did back then.  The posters in thiAnd it's also true that the vast majority of people who catch this disease will experience it like a nasty case of bronchitis, or a pneumonia with mild to moderate symptoms. We're not going to have another great depression, we're not going to experience the black death, and society is not going to collapse. It'll probably run its course much like H1N1 did, we'll develop treatments and vaccines and immunities, and we will move on as we did back then. The posters in this thread have created an echo chamber of apocalyptic anecdotes that has whipped you all into a panic. It has caused a profound loss of perspective in here. It is not healty, nor is it productive.s thread have created an echo chamber of apocalyptic anecdotes that has whipped you all into a panic.  It has caused a profound loss of perspective in here.  It is not healty, nor is it productive.

 

You can say all that without making an idiotic statement like comparing this to ths flu.  It's not healthy to fear armageddon, but it's dangerous to downplay the potential fallout. 

 

H1N1 mortality rate was 0.02%.  The absolute lowest we are seeing now is 1.04% in Korea (and that's been trending upwards).  It's a bit of a big deal.

[Supernatural24]

 

[China]

1 minute ago, bearrock said:

 

Left unchecked, it will kill half a million people in this country alone (by conservative estimate).  It's not the flu.

 

 

You can say all that without making an idiotic statement like comparing this to ths flu.  It's not healthy to fear armageddon, but it's dangerous to downplay the potential fallout. 

 

H1N1 mortality rate was 0.02%.  The absolute lowest we are seeing now is 1.04% in Korea (and that's been trending upwards).  It's a bit of a big deal.

 

Half a million by June.  Perhaps more than double that when all is said and done.

 

A New Analysis Predicts 1.1 Million Coronavirus Deaths in a Medium Case Scenario

 

After weeks of downplaying the severity of the coronavirus pandemic, why did President Trump suddenly sound so serious about it on Monday? Everyone’s best guess is that he was briefed on a new study from Imperial College in London, which estimated the death rate from the pandemic if no control measures are taken:

 

Quote

In such scenarios, given an estimated R0 of 2.4, we predict 81% of the GB and US populations would be infected over the course of the epidemic….In total, in an unmitigated epidemic, we would predict approximately 510,000 deaths in GB and 2.2 million in the US, not accounting for the potential negative effects of health systems being overwhelmed on mortality.

 

 

 

That’s enough to put the fear of God into anyone. If no control measures are put in place, the researchers estimate that we’ll exceed critical care capacity about 25 days from now and see a peak of about 50,000 deaths per day by early June.

 

So what should we do? The Imperial College team modeled two basic strategies: suppression and mitigation. In both cases, the goal is to reduce the number R0 (pronounced “R nought”), which tells you how many people are likely to catch the virus from someone who already has it. The team assumes that the virus, if uncontrolled, has an R0 of about 2.4, which means that everyone who’s infected passes the virus along to an average of 2.4 additional people. This is what causes the exponential growth that you see in the chart.

 

In the case of suppression, the goal is to get R0 below one. Obviously, if each infected person passes the virus along to, say, an average of half a person, you get an exponential decline: 1,000 cases quickly becomes 500 cases, then 250 cases and so forth. The problem here is threefold. First, it would take massive—and probably unrealistic—control measures to get R0 so low. Second, the economic cost of full suppression is likely to be very large in the long term. Third, the control measures would have to be in place for the entire population for well over a year. Until then, if the control measures fail at any point, the epidemic will almost immediately come roaring back because no one has developed any immunity to it.

 

Click on the link for the full article