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The Official ES 2020 Free Agency Thread /Tracker... Kendall Fuller,OG Schweitzer, KP Louis, Thomas Davis, McKissic, TE Logan Thomas, OT Lucas, QB Kyle Allen (trd 5th Rd pick), RB P. Barber, LB Davis, Ronald Darby

Riggo-toni

By Riggo-toni
in The Stadium

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skinsfan93

skinsfan93

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

I think that would be the case if 116 of those 403 touches weren't catches. It's a different set of rules when you have an RB that's a dual threat like him. He's actually been used pretty sparingly in the run game and I think the only reason his numbers were so inflated last year were because he was the safety valve for Allen and Grier. 

I disagree it doesn’t matter if it’s carries or catches. It’s about total touches. 
 

Look at a guy like Priest Holmes back with the Chiefs. He had a few good years caught a lot of balls and averaged nearly 400 touches. 2 years later he injures his spine and never comes back.  
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HolmPr00.htm

 

And let’s not forget about David Johnson. He had one year with almost 400 touches and has never replicated his 2nd year. 
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnDa08.htm

 

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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, skinsfan93 said:

I disagree it doesn’t matter if it’s carries or catches. It’s about total touches. 
 

Look at a guy like Priest Holmes back with the Chiefs. He had a few good years caught a lot of balls and averaged nearly 400 touches. 2 years later he injures his spine and never comes back.  
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/H/HolmPr00.htm

 

And let’s not forget about David Johnson. He had one year with almost 400 touches and has never replicated his 2nd year. 
 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JohnDa08.htm

 

 

 

I actually think WHERE those touches are matters.  If I remember correctly, Holmes caught most of his balls out of the backfield between the hashmarks, where he was contacting ILBs and Safeties.  McCaffrey is capable of lining up in the slot, or even on the outside.  When he does that, he's less likely to be heads up with someone 25 - 50 LBs heavier than him.  

 

Match that with with the fact that this contract will be pennies by the time it expires.  I would imagine it's somewhat back loaded, and when the gambling money starts to get into the league and that part of the profit is shares, the cap is going to blow up.  

 

I do have to say that i don't get why Carolina is the team making this deal.  It's likely that even if McCaffrey is able to limit his exposure, and buck the trend of the drop in RB ability, then he's still only looking at this contract if he's lucky.  I don't see them being a year or two away.  If this was Baltimore, San Fran, or KC, then i would endorse this deal.  Being as it's Carolina with a new HC, and seemingly a couple years away from even dreaming of contending, this seems like an investment i'm not sure i'd pull the trigger on. 

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MartinC

MartinC

Posted
Posted

It's a truism that over paying (however that is defined) or overdrafting running backs is almost always a bad idea. It's one I broadly agree with (and this in a Division with Elliott and Barkley).

 

Throwing to a back is also not an efficient way to structure your gameplan or play calling. Someone like McCaffrey who can spiit out and run routes out of the slot might be an exception but then you would need to isolate the snaps and touches he got by where he lined up, as per the point made above by @OVCChairman. Interesting article here which breaks down the data on the success rate of plays where the back catches the ball (Elliott and Brakley feature) - spoiler the success rate of those plays is not good!

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/sorry-running-backs-even-your-receiving-value-can-be-easily-replaced/

 

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PartyPosse

PartyPosse

Posted
Posted
51 minutes ago, Master Blaster said:

 

It's an extension to his rookie deal so they have him for the next 6 years for $75 million.  Will be 29 when contract expires.

Absolutely perfect contract. 

Not that they wouldn’t have, but does this mean the team automatically picked up his 5th year option?

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PartyPosse

PartyPosse

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

do have to say that i don't get why Carolina is the team making this deal.  It's likely that even if McCaffrey is able to limit his exposure, and buck the trend of the drop in RB ability, then he's still only looking at this contract if he's lucky.  I don't see them being a year or two away.  If this was Baltimore, San Fran, or KC, then i would endorse this deal.  Being as it's Carolina with a new HC, and seemingly a couple years away from even dreaming of contending, this seems like an investment i'm not sure i'd pull the trigger on.

From what I e learned about his sport, every team is 1-2 years away if they have building blocks and draft wisely. And they have those in CMC and Moore, I think their defense is gonna be massively improved if they can draft a solid corner.

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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

From what I e learned about his sport, every team is 1-2 years away if they have building blocks and draft wisely. And they have those in CMC and Moore, I think their defense is gonna be massively improved if they can draft a solid corner.

 

 

Fair point.  ANYTHING is possible.  The right QB can do a lot of things, and i did not take into account the fact that this is an extension so hes under contract for 6 seasons.  I wonder how effective he is in the 2nd half of this deal, but i still think this contract is far from crippling with where i think the salary cap will be when its getting more expensive.

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skinsfan93

skinsfan93

Posted
Posted

McCaffery is a good player but I’m not sure he’s worth being the highest paid running back. He’s not the kind of player that can shoulder the load of an offense like Zeke, Saquan, or Derrick Henry. A lot of his catches are dump offs from Cam and some young qbs. However they needed a face for the organization after cutting Cam and McCaffery fits that bill. 

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method man

method man

Posted
Posted
On 4/13/2020 at 8:53 PM, Koolblue13 said:

Can't wait until we're wondering if B Love deserves that kind of money.

 

I want to draft Dillon pretty badly. Guise and a FB is awesome and having a battering ram for the 4rth period will be handy.  I also miss Mike Sellers and seeing a dude that side catch passes and run people over.


I’d take him if he falls to the 5th or later, which likely wont happen. More inportant needs to focus on in the 3rd and 4th

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PartyPosse

PartyPosse

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Fair point.  ANYTHING is possible.  The right QB can do a lot of things, and i did not take into account the fact that this is an extension so hes under contract for 6 seasons.  I wonder how effective he is in the 2nd half of this deal, but i still think this contract is far from crippling with where i think the salary cap will be when its getting more expensive.

That’s the thing I’m realizing. Unless a player drastically underperforms or gets injured, the way the cap goes up the deal will be an absolute steal in a couple seasons.

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OVCChairman

OVCChairman

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, PartyPosse said:

That’s the thing I’m realizing. Unless a player drastically underperforms or gets injured, the way the cap goes up the deal will be an absolute steal in a couple seasons.

 

And we're going to see the cap go up in ways we never had imagined... imho it was already on a collision course with $400 million a year by the mid point of the new CBA with the betting money... now with this virus, for 2020, stadiums are likely to be selling out in the short term, because it could go back to being a social event.  If the NFL kicks off in August, the money is just going to get bigger after everyone will be going an entire spring, and most of summer, without live sports.  

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HigSkin

HigSkin

Posted
Posted

OBJ rumored to Minnesota on a trade for some next years picks I believe is what was said on The Herd. 

 

it'd at least be fun to watch him blow a gasket when KC doesn't throw him the ball. 

 

Also, Jay Glazer has some sort of huge news tonight that is not related to OBJ.  Will be announced on Football Now tonight.  Maybe something about the season or draft because he doesn't reference that below. 

 

 

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RWJ

RWJ

Posted
Posted
55 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Also, Jay Glazer has some sort of huge news tonight that is not related to OBJ.  Will be announced on Football Now tonight.  Maybe something about the season or draft because he doesn't reference that below. 

Maybe something about a 10 round draft that's been talked about??? :)

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Est.1974

Est.1974

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I’m hoping it’s a 7 day draft with one round happening every night and longer time limits for later rounds just to keep us entertained.

My God that would screw my sleeping pattern up big time :rofl89:

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

OBJ rumored to Minnesota on a trade for some next years picks I believe is what was said on The Herd. 

 


mixed reporting on this now. Mostly being shot down. Who knows though. Hopefully the trade wheels in general starter turning pre draft.

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NickyJ

NickyJ

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Coolio47 said:

https://twitter.com/Redskins/status/1250115866571792387?s=20

 

Anyone know what the big announcement is?

 

1 hour ago, HigSkin said:

Also, Jay Glazer has some sort of huge news tonight that is not related to OBJ.  Will be announced on Football Now tonight.  Maybe something about the season or draft because he doesn't reference that below. 

 

https://twitter.com/JayGlazer/status/1250447018096394240

Both are likely related. Roger Goodell is stepping down and Greg Manusky is taking his place? Maybe Nascar and the NFL are going to combine their games so that there's a race at Bristol while the Redskins and Cowboys play in the in-field with Joe Gibbs coaching the Redskins and his Nascar team at the same time?

 

After mixed results in CBA negotiations, the NFLPA might choose John Riggins to be their lead representative, promising a beer in one hand and a beer in the other.

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