The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”

[goskins10]

3 hours ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

The jobs number was way better than expected. It’s a fact. CNN spun it to fit their narrative.

 

This is directly from CNN  Business:   "It was the third-straight month of improvement after the spring lockdown that decimated the labor market, and the July job gain exceeded economists' expectations."

 

What exactly more would you want? Now they did follow that with the very accurate statement that the 1.8M jobs in July was far lower than the 4.8M in June and we are still above depression era 10% unemployment. So basically ****ty but not quite as ****ty as was expected. Should we give bunker boy a cookie? Not sure painting some ultra rosy picture due to just a few more jobs in July is the right message. Being accurate is not spin. 

 

The bottom line is the devastation from having to close the economy down is still a problem. And it's poised to get much worse with UI supplement and eviction protection running out. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

@Renegade7 my response to that post would be I guess it’s not just the republicans that believe in the deep state.... fake unemployment numbers? Cmon man...

Edited August 7, 2020 by CousinsCowgirl84

[Renegade7]

15 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

@Renegade7 my response to that post would be I guess it’s not just the republicans that believe in the deep state.... fake unemployment numbers? Cmon man...

 

You disappointment me.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cbo-says-economy-could-take-nearly-10-years-to-catch-up-after-coronavirus-11591044469

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/07/01/unemployment-coronavirus-close-down-347339

 

I'm old enough to remember folks poking holes unemoyment numbers when Obama was bringing them down.  Like people actually looking for work.  If I'm not mistaken the June report wasn't even in context of folks that were still employed but lost hours.

 

We are losing a million jobs per week and 31 million on unemployment now.  My entire immediate family except me is on unemployment, save my sister who jus got off and afraid of going back on again.  My brother is afraid of losing his house.  The number of people and families I see panhandling on Route 1 has been growing every month.

 

This is lipstick on a pig jobs report, again, and I dont want to hear it once the ramifications of not extending the eviction hold and $600 extra UI money starts to take hold. Blood bath coming. How many of those folks those jobs that got added are folks that got their job back that might lose it against as this virus takes more a hold on us when flu season gets here?  

 

Your bubble must be nice. You should change your avatar.

 

 

Edited August 7, 2020 by Renegade7

[Larry]

20 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

@Renegade7 my response to that post would be I guess it’s not just the republicans that believe in the deep state.... fake unemployment numbers? Cmon man...

 

Name something that you think you wouldn't believe this administration lying about.  

[CousinsCowgirl84]

3 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

You disappointment me.

 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/cbo-says-economy-could-take-nearly-10-years-to-catch-up-after-coronavirus-11591044469

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politico.com/amp/news/2020/07/01/unemployment-coronavirus-close-down-347339

 

 

True, but doesn’t change what I said...

 

Quote

I'm old enough to remember folks poking holes unemoyment numbers when Obama was bringing them down.  Like people actually looking for work.  If I'm not mistaken the June report wasn't even in context of folks that were still employed but lost hours.

 

I wasn’t one of them, but isn’t this whataboutism? 
 

Quote

 

My entire immediate family except me is on unemployment, save my sister who jus got off and afraid of going back on again. 
 

 

sorry to hear that. 

 

Quote

extending the eviction hold and $600 extra UI money starts to take hold. Blood bath coming. How many of those folks those jobs that got added are folks that got their job back that might lose it against as this virus takes more a hold on us when flu season gets here?  

 

 

I am now less against the 600 bonus. I couldn’t figure out why people would need unemployment benefits and then on top of that an extra 600.... but with schools closed a lot of people need childcare and more food since the kids won’t be eating at school...

 

Quote

 

Your bubble must be nice. You should change your avatar.

 

I can’t disagree with you.  I am wanting to hire employees and can’t find them at a price I am accustomed to paying.  
 

 

[China]

On 8/7/2020 at 4:07 PM, Renegade7 said:

 

 

This is lipstick on a pig jobs report, again, and I dont want to hear it once the ramifications of not extending the eviction hold and $600 extra UI money starts to take hold. Blood bath coming. How many of those folks those jobs that got added are folks that got their job back that might lose it against as this virus takes more a hold on us when flu season gets here?  

 

 

and so it begins...

 

A Memphis woman, barely recovering from COVID-19, was evicted from her home

 

 

[Llevron]

On 8/7/2020 at 4:18 PM, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

I can’t disagree with you.  I am wanting to hire employees and can’t find them at a price I am accustomed to paying.  

 

How crazy would it be if there were other factors involved in them not wanting to take the job at a price you are accustomed to paying? 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

4 hours ago, Llevron said:

 

How crazy would it be if there were other factors involved in them not wanting to take the job at a price you are accustomed to paying? 

I don’t think in my case it’s because they are worried about getting the virus, the people I hire are usually younger people like the kind at the bars and at spring break beaches, but there might be other factors like not having child care....

[gbear]

1. I think this article by Robert Sanuelson gives a nice summary of where we are now compared to the Great Depression. Pandemic Recession

The employment numbers and the effects on our consumer spending are horrific.  I think the 5 year time frame sounds correct in terms of time it will take to get back to where we were at the beginning of the year, and I fear it may optimistic. I think it assumes more rational acting than our partisan politics is likely to produce.

[PleaseBlitz]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/yes-unemployment-fell-but-the-recovery-seems-to-be-slowing-down/

 

Yes, Unemployment Fell. But The Recovery Seems To Be Slowing Down.

 

Quote

After three straight months of declining unemployment, we have only just returned to levels of unemployment that rival the depths of the Great Recession. Friday’s jobs report revealed that the unemployment rate dropped from 11.1 percent in June to 10.2 percent in July, and 1.8 million more people were employed in July than in June.

 

So the economic recovery is continuing — but it’s moving very slowly, and we aren’t close to being out of the woods. Still, this report could have been much worse. After all, weekly unemployment claims rose a bit in July after falling for 15 straight weeks since late March. And across the country, phased reopenings have been rolled back over the past month as the number of COVID-19 infections spiked, preventing more workers from coming back to their jobs.

 

But the unemployment rate isn’t exactly dropping at the rate you’d expect for an economy that’s roaring back to life: The improvement from June to July was less than half as large as the one from May to June. And if the economy’s momentum is slowing, that means the recovery could be long and painful — particularly if Congress, which is currently deadlocked over the next round of coronavirus relief, cuts back on the aid it’s been pouring into the economy since March.

 

The economy has now regained about 9 million jobs since April, at which point more than 21 million jobs were lost. The unemployment rate has also fallen substantially from an official peak of 14.7 percent in April — which in reality was likely closer to 20 percent, thanks to a misclassification error on one of the surveys used to produce the jobs report that the Bureau of Labor Statistics now seems to have mostly under control.

 

Much more at link. 

[NoCalMike]

Should Biden win, he is likely walking into a worse situation than Obama did in 2008/9.  The difference now is that 40% of the county refuses to treat the problem seriously so there is no legitimate end in sight for the time being.  Obama had a huge task to undertake when he came into office, and of course the economic recovery can be debated, but what Obama had to deal with seemed like it had more of a clear cut solution, where as right now it's hard to look at previous methods of economic turnaround when the actual problem (covid19) is showing no signs of going anywhere due to the general selfishness going on.

 

Looking bigger picture, even if Biden and does his 1 term, I don't think there is any guarantee he is successful enough to ward off the next version of Trump from running and possibly winning in 2024.

[Koala]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

bama had a huge task to undertake when he came into office, and of course the economic recovery can be debated, but what Obama had to deal with seemed like it had more of a clear cut solution, where as right now it's hard to look at previous methods of economic turnaround when the actual problem (covid19) is showing no signs of going anywhere due to the general selfishness going on.

 

 

I agree, we gotta take this one step at a time.  The first thing thats important, assuming the country isnt already D.O.A by the time Biden gets into office, is just to ensure we get moving back into the right direction, and that means dealing with COVID correctly -- no matter how long that takes.  We cannot move forward until we have dealt with COVID, and if that means we gotta shut everything back down until a proven vaccine is available, thats just what we have to do.  We already messed up royally the initial COVID response, we cannot afford to **** up the recovery-- we as a country will NOT SURVIVE, period.  If mess the recovery up, by jumping gun, by not waiting long enough for an EFFECTIVE vaccine, then America will be a 3rd world country by time COVID is truly through with us.  

 

It would behoove us, if we actually had smart leadership, to make sure that a vaccine is globally available as soon as possible.  We are too stupid as a nation to deal with COVID unless its through a vaccine.  I mean, apparently the need for EVERYONE to put on a mask is too complex an idea to build a consensus on, so we pretty much need to just have the cure injected in us ((forcefully if need be), because we're too dumb to be relied on to do anything else.   

 

What this means for Biden, is that he must immediately reverse the selfish attempt by Trump to ensure America would be first in line for a vaccine.  That just backfired immediately.   Now whats likely to happen, is that another country will develop the vaccine before us, and very pointedly make sure that we are amongst the last in line to get the vaccine.  Or even if we develop the vaccine first, it will take longer than it would have had we collaborated and encouraged collaboration with the global medical research community.  Lets get back to being the world leaders in medical research -- by infusing a laaarge amount of money, I dont care if its more than the rest of the world combined -- into an international consortium of scientists, tasked with sharing data and facilitating collaboration in COVID 19 vaccine research.  It should not matter who is first to make an effective vaccine, we just want an effective vaccine as soon as possible.  The way science works, especially vaccine research, the more access you have to data from other scientists (specially data about what failed to produce a viable vaccine), the faster you will be able to identify an appropriate epitope (target) for an effective vaccine that confers complete and long-term immunity. 

 

Its almost like this COVID thing is a test from above, to see if human beings are still capable of working together for the common good -- when the resources are available and the only thing in question is the will and wisdom to do it.  .

 

Then, we can take those lessons we learned from COVID, and apply them to the other challenges requiring the joint efforts of the entire globe -- remember global warming?  Its about due to start kicking our ass soon, so we gotta solve this COVID thing fast -- before the next massive hurricane, drought, or whatever nature has up its sleeve when it starts getting pissed off, hits.  If a Biden presidency can accomplish that, it will have accomplished a lot.

Edited August 10, 2020 by Koala

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

Should Biden win, he is likely walking into a worse situation than Obama did in 2008/9.  The difference now is that 40% of the county refuses to treat the problem seriously so there is no legitimate end in sight for the time being.  Obama had a huge task to undertake when he came into office, and of course the economic recovery can be debated, but what Obama had to deal with seemed like it had more of a clear cut solution, where as right now it's hard to look at previous methods of economic turnaround when the actual problem (covid19) is showing no signs of going anywhere due to the general selfishness going on.

 

Looking bigger picture, even if Biden and does his 1 term, I don't think there is any guarantee he is successful enough to ward off the next version of Trump from running and possibly winning in 2024.

 If Donny is still ticking and not in jail, the real thing will run again.

[China]

1 hour ago, Koala said:

 

 

It would behoove us, if we actually had smart leadership, to make sure that a vaccine is globally available as soon as possible.  We are too stupid as a nation to deal with COVID unless its through a vaccine.  I mean, apparently the need for EVERYONE to put on a mask is too complex an idea to build a consensus on, so we pretty much need to just have the cure injected in us ((forcefully if need be), because we're too dumb to be relied on to do anything else.   

 

 

Apparently we're too stupid as a nation to deal with COVID even with a vaccine:

 

 

 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

1 minute ago, China said:

Apparently we're too stupid as a nation to deal with COVID even with a vaccine

Oh, 100%. I was telling my mom this morning that the virus isn’t going away any time soon, even after we do have a vaccine. It won’t be widely available until next spring at the earliest, alot of people won’t take it, a lot of experts think it will only be 60-75% effective, and we don’t know how long it will last.

[gbear]

I am still worried about a "successful vaccine" when the threshold they set was "%50 effective."  As I understand it, COVID19 is roughly ten times as contagious as the flu.  So success would mean only 5 times as contagious, and we can celebrate?   

[CobraCommander]

25 minutes ago, gbear said:

I am still worried about a "successful vaccine" when the threshold they set was "%50 effective."  As I understand it, COVID19 is roughly ten times as contagious as the flu.  So success would mean only 5 times as contagious, and we can celebrate?   

 

 

Also vaccines don't work on the obese. So there goes any chance of saving Mississippi, Alabama and Louisiana, all with terrible Covid rates, all with SEC Football teams.

 

https://khn.org/news/americas-obesity-epidemic-threatens-effectiveness-of-any-covid-vaccine/

 

[NoCalMike]

If Biden wins, the first thing he should do is release and start sharing all the actual medical data on Covid that Trump is likely suppressing in order to push his "everything is fine, it is what it is" narrative. 

[Larry]

58 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

If Biden wins, the first thing he should do is release and start sharing all the actual medical data on Covid that Trump is likely suppressing in order to push his "everything is fine, it is what it is" narrative. 

Which will prove that the whole thing is nothing but a scare tactic manufactured by the Dems, to justify their power grab. 

[CousinsCowgirl84]

Initial jobless claims number better than expected. Still about a million new claims which is the opposite of great, but not as bad as expected.   Continues the downward trend...

 

[Larry]

1 hour ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

Initial jobless claims number better than expected. Still about a million new claims which is the opposite of great, but not as bad as expected.   Continues the downward trend...

 

At this rate, the "downward trend" will be down to where Trump took office, in only another 10-20 years.  

[Corcaigh]

Changing the topic from spinning unemployment numbers ... the S&P is back to its record high. No one knows for how long, and no one knows what we will see in the next 6-36 months and beyond.

 

For those who decided to sell equities to buy lower risk investments or for cash once the rapid fall was underway in late Feb/March, what do you think looking ahead?

Getting back in? Or are you committed to a lower risk strategy for the long haul?
 

[Springfield]

Been looking for a new or barely used car lately. Apparently there aren't any. So that's pretty awful. Poor dealers couldn't make money even if they wanted. I'd like to hear @TryTheBeal!'s take on the subject.

[gbear]

I have split investments with some in S&P 500 index, some in high dividend stocks, some in utilities, and some in a small cap index.  Then I have some in short term intermediate size firm corporate bonds.  So far, I have done OK. I figure to stay in this position fairly long term in addition to some investments in individual companies that strike my eye.  Those I tend to buy for a longer term view of where I think the economy will have to go.  So I tend not to care about the normal fluxuations in the market during a normal up/down cycle.

[China]

3 minutes ago, Springfield said:

Been looking for a new or barely used car lately. Apparently there aren't any. So that's pretty awful. Poor dealers couldn't make money even if they wanted. I'd like to hear @TryTheBeal!'s take on the subject.

 

Yeah, I posted an article a while back that the average age of a car is increasing because people are holding on to their cars longer due to the pandemic (among other reasons)

 

Quote

The firm found that the average age of cars and trucks in operation in the U.S. has risen to 11.9 years this year, or about one month older than in 2019. This trend can be chalked up to several different factors, including rising new vehicle prices, though it has been somewhat exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic.

 

Before the pandemic hit, new vehicles represented just 6.1 percent of all vehicles in operation in 2019 – down from 6.7 percent in 2016, which was the previous record-setting year. Analysts predict further troubles for the automotive industry in the coming months due to the COVID-19 pandemic, with new vehicles expected to account for less than 5 percent of all registered cars, trucks and SUVs on the road this year.

 

Link