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The State of the Economy Thread - “Falling inflation, rising growth give U.S. the world’s best recovery”


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Unemployment activist petitions to change state law in hopes of recalling governor

 

A community activist is petitioning to amend Florida law in an effort she hopes to will lead to Governor Ron DeSantis’ recall from office.

 

Vanessa Brito has become the patron saint of Florida’s unemployed, dedicating the last five months to helping people navigate the state’s broken unemployment system and putting pressure on officials to fix it.

 

Last week, Brito gave the governor an ultimatum: give the people an answer about expanding unemployment benefits, or else she’d launch an effort to recall him from office.

 

DeSantis did not provide any update regarding Florida’s plans for the LWA, or Lost Wages Assistance program that would provide $300 in federal funds to those out of work due to the pandemic. In response, Brito mailed off the forms Monday to petition for a constitutional amendment.

 

Florida recall law currently only applies to locally elected officials, but if Brito’s efforts are successful, it would be expanded to included state elected officials.

 

“This isn’t just about Governor DeSantis,” she said. “This is about accountability at the state level.”

 

Unlike the majority of states, Florida has yet to apply for the LWA program. The $600 a week CARES Act bonus that kept many out-of-work Floridians afloat for months ran out at the end of July.

 

DeSantis has previously stated his team has concerns about the funding and legality of the LWA program. A spokesperson for his office told 8 On Your Side Friday that the state is still exploring its options.

 

Meanwhile, Florida remains one of the hardest hit states by pandemic unemployment and has one of the nation’s lowest weekly pay caps at $275 a week.

 

With grace periods for bills plus an eviction ban set to soon expire, Brito says many are facing what she calls “extreme desperation.”

 

If Brito’s amendment makes the ballot and is approved by voters, she says she will then petition for the governor’s recall. DeSantis is up for reelection in 2022.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

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Meanwhile,

 

Florida’s weekly unemployment recovery slowest in the United States

 

Florida has struggled in handling unemployment since the coronavirus arrived, and a new study shows that the recovery from unemployment may be just as difficult.

 

In a new report, WalletHub researchers identified which states were recovering the fastest from the 16.3 million Americans who are currently unemployed in the wake of the pandemic. (Link to WalletHub report)

 

WalletHub compared the 50 states and the District of Columbia across three metrics based on changes in unemployment claims.

 

Florida was last on the list, with a 1,003.71% change in unemployment last week alone, compared to the same time frame last year.

 

The state also experienced a 2,511.66% increase in unemployment claims since March, compared to 2019.

 

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So when does the housing market crater?  Increasing building when people can't even afford to pay their current mortgages or rent.

 

US home construction surges 22.6%, third monthly increase

 

Construction of new U.S. homes surged 22.6% last month as homebuilders bounced back from a lull induced by the coronavirus pandemic.

 

The Commerce Department reported Tuesday that new homes were started an annual pace of nearly 1.5 million in July, highest since February and well above what economists were expecting. Housing starts have now risen three straight months after plunging in March and April as the virus outbreak paralyzed the American economy. Last month's pace of construction was 23.4% above July 2019's.

 

“U.S. housing starts blew the roof off of expectations in July ... .... these are the kind of gains seen after storms/hurricanes," Jennifer Lee, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, wrote in a research note. Strong demand and limited supply drove builders to break ground.

 

The big gains came from the construction of apartments and condominiums, which soared 56.7%. But single-family home construction ticked up, too, by 8.2%.

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

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32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments

 

As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, almost one-third of U.S. households, 32%, have not made their full housing payments for July yet, according to a survey by Apartment List, an online rental platform.

 

About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage.

 

That’s the fourth month in a row that a “historically high” number of households were unable to pay their housing bill on time and in full, up from 30% in June and 31% in May. Renters, low-income and younger households were most likely to miss their payments, Apartment List found. 

 

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10 minutes ago, China said:

So when does the housing market crater?  Increasing building when people can't even afford to pay their current mortgages or rent.

 

Housing demand is sky high right now.

 

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/the-real-estate-market-heats-up-housing-demand-is-25-above-pre-pandemic-levels/

 

Quote

Demand for houses continues to skyrocket, according to a report from Redfin CEO Glenn Kelman. Seasonally adjusted demand for houses during the week of June 1 through June 7 was 25% above pre-pandemic levels.

 

Kelman said that bidding wars have caused listings to move quickly, and sales prices are up 3.1% year over year. The percentage of newly listed homes to accept an offer within 14 days increased from 42% in May to 47% in June.

 

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36 minutes ago, techboy said:

Okay, to help steer this back on topic, the new fee's been postponed to December (huh... Does that timing coiincide with something?) and mortgage rates are coming back down a bit.

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-plunge-refinance-fee-202800129.html

 

Second chance for some...

 

The mortgage industry lobby went gangbusters to get this delayed.  https://mba-pa.informz.net/informzdataservice/onlineversion/ind/bWFpbGluZ2luc3RhbmNlaWQ9ODA2MDc5NiZzdWJzY3JpYmVyaWQ9OTM5ODczMjc3  

 

 

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The U.S. economy added 1.4 million jobs in August, sending the unemployment rate below 10 percent for the first time since the pandemic began, a glimmer of good news as the pandemic continues its march across the country.

 

The unemployment rate fell to 8.4 percent. 

Analysts had expected job gains of around that amount, as the economy has shown signs of rebounding from the economic carnage left by closures aimed to stem the spread of the coronavirus.

The report is likely to influence the political debate about whether to reauthorize more aid for businesses and the unemployed, when Congress returns from its recess this month. It could also play a central role in the presidential race.

Economists say that they are still concerned about the job market’s long term prospects because of the expiration if some of the aid programs passed by Congress in the Spring.

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59 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Please help me understand:

 

Are we saying it's good news we added about a million jobs in a month when are losing about a million jobs a week?

 

How?

 

Just wait until next month.  A whole bunch of large employers that took CARES Act money are barred from laying anyone off until October 1.  Unless the Senate GOP un****s itself, October 1 is going to be Black Thursday.  

 

Here is an article that is specific to the airline industry, but the CARES Act provided money to way more companies than just the airlines.

 

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/09/02/908854837/united-plans-16-000-furloughs-as-airlines-cut-jobs-during-pandemic-downturn

 

Quote

United Airlines will be putting 16,370 workers on involuntary, indefinite furlough at the start of October unless more aid materializes from the federal government, the company announced Wednesday.

 

Together with some 7,400 voluntary departures, the airline is cutting its workforce by more than 25%. It's hardly alone. American Airlines recently announced 19,000 furloughs and layoffs, while Delta cut its workforce by 20% through buyouts.

...

Airlines received a lifeline from the federal government this spring in the form of $25 billion in aid authorized through the CARES Act. The companies frantically sought cost savings — through voluntary furloughs and retirements, buyouts, schedule-sharing and other measures — but, as a condition of that aid money, were prohibited from laying off staff.

 

The aid money and the job protections expire Sept. 30.

 

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Please help me understand:

 

Are we saying it's good news we added about a million jobs in a month when are losing about a million jobs a week?

 

How?

 

Yes, the total number of jobs went up.  

 

(Insert disclaimers - if the numbers are real, and maybe they're part time jobs, yadda uadda yadda . . . )

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Please help me understand:

 

Are we saying it's good news we added about a million jobs in a month when are losing about a million jobs a week?

 

How?


 

I wonder if the unemployment claims are a result of the offices that handle unemployment claims can only Handle so many claims and so the million jobs/week thing is back log..

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1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

Please help me understand:

 

Are we saying it's good news we added about a million jobs in a month when are losing about a million jobs a week?

 

How?


It’s not really good news. Conservatives will try to tout it but anyone paying attention understands this is going up 2 feet after you dug a 30 foot hole. 

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32 minutes ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:


 

I wonder if the unemployment claims are a result of the offices that handle unemployment claims can only Handle so many claims and so the million jobs/week thing is back log..

 

This is a good point, some states have caught up, I dont believe all of them have.  Could be wrong but these are new claims entering the queue, not new claims finally being approved.

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40 minutes ago, tshile said:


It’s not really good news. Conservatives will try to tout it but anyone paying attention understands this is going up 2 feet after you dug a 30 foot hole. 


the shut down dug the thirty foot hole... going up is better than the alternative in any case.

 

You aren’t going to get out of the hole until all the restrictions are lifted... and a lot of states led by republicans and democrats aren’t there yet.... 
 

 

It seems to me that a lot of the job losses are from government forcing businesses to close, and once business are allowed to reopen they are hiring. Which is why you have large numbers of people filing for unemployment and large numbers of new jobs.

 

we will see what happens in October, but I’m not really surprised airlines would want to cut jobs, and I don’t think it says a lot about the economy in general...

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1 hour ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Not sure if this is the reason, but if you stop actively looking for work, you are not counted.  

 

This is huge reason why i believe these numbers aren't telling the full story and cherry picking is lying to ourselves.

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