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2020 Comprehensive Draft Thread


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15 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Just watched some Brycen Hopkins.  He's maybe half a peg behind Hunter Bryant as a receiver (but close) and a peg better than Hunter Bryant as a blocker albeit neither one IMO are great blockers but they are both willing blockers so maybe they can be coached into it.  I like Hopkins' size over Bryant.  Watching these TEs, I get why draft geeks are all over the place on who is the best one.  The ones I've watched are very close.  3rd-4th rounder types IMO. 

 

Hopkins, is fairly dynamic as a receiver.  Shallow out routes in the flat, short digs-crossers, some intermediate catches. They had him play some H back, too.   He moves fairly well for a TE.  He's quick off the snap and separates really well.  his separation skills is what grabs me the most about him.   He's not much of a YAC guy in open field though.  Defenders can wrap him up and take him down.  As a blocker, he will put his body into the block but he doesn't really overpower people and can flat out miss blocks.  As fluid as he is as a receiver, he's not a fluid blocker.  But he's not a disaster as a blocker either, his spirit seems willing, so that part might be able to be coached up.  Unlike Hunter Bryant, Hopkins has the size to put some muscle on and I have more faith in him growing into that role.

 

 

 

I actually think he looks pretty great as a receiver. Very good length. Very good at high pointing the ball and hand catching. Good speed and quickness. I could see him being an immediate impact receiver on this team. Whether he can block or not is a whole other matter. In any case, I wouldn't mind him in the 3rd or 4th. 

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6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Lynch built that team to mimic the brand of football he played.  They're bullies.  That's the kind of team I want us to become.

 

Steve, if you don’t mind me asking how do you evaluate the edge factor for a player and how much weight does it have in your overall evaluation?

 

I’m trying to build a spectrum for myself in my own evaluations and this is what i have so far. 

 

Like there is soft, making “business decisions”, on one extreme and then the next level is the nice guys, who may have strength but no violence to their movements, it’s not a do or die battle for them. Then the middle ground are the guys like Jordan reed, who are tough and will risk their bodies, but won’t ever bully anybody or punish people. They’ve got like an internalized edge, but it’s not the double edged sword of the guys on the next levels. 

 

Next level is the guy with an edge, but who can’t control it. The hot head who lets his emotions get the better of him. Maybe Reuben Foster is a good example of this. I think they have a more externalized than internalized edge and need more mental/emotional toughness to reign things in and develop to the next levels. 

 

Next level is guys who display calculated violence, like maybe Brandon Scherff. And then my top level is instinctual violence or mature violence like the late Sean Taylor or Tyrian Matthieu. 

 

Does that make sense?

 

Then as far as factoring it in, the extreme ends of the spectrum have greater qualifying/disqualifying weight, that funnels from each side as it meets in the middle. 

 

And then maybe different positions might have different edge thresholds to meet in order to be deemed worthy of a pick. 

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6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Really drove home for me that I don't want anything to do with guys like Jaelen Raegor.  Don't care if they're great playmakers with the ball in their hands, they're culture killers who don't buy in to being a part of a badass team like the 49ers were this year.

 

 

You really seem to dislike Reagor, but I don't yet understand why. I get the blocking part, but you've talked a bit about his attitude, I think. What kind of attitude/behavioral issues has he had?

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20 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

He's pretty undersized. Definitely would have to be a WILL. I don't have well formed opinions about him yet. Tried watching him live a little against Clemson, and he didn't stand out, but that's fine. I think he probably winds up needing some time to develop. I need to make time to watch more of his full game cut ups. And I want to see how he measures in terms of arm length. He looks like length could be a bit of an issue. 

 

I didn't watch him closely until after Clemson but what got my attention was on twitter he was getting mega hype for the Clemson game including winning the defensive MVP for the game.  I couldn't find that game to go back and rewatch. 

 

In the games I did watch him, I liked him a lot, plays with a lot of dog in him.  And is fairly versatile for a LB.  I like what I've seen, I'd put him on my list of one of my guys.  When we put together a list of guys we want on day 2 (3rd round if he's still there), he will likely be on my list. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

 

Steve, if you don’t mind me asking how do you evaluate the edge factor for a player and how much weight does it have in your overall evaluation?

 

 

Not addressed to me... but...

 

Controlled violence in smart situations always wins for me. Defining it is difficult, but to provide context:

 

A runningback who can go up the middle without any hesitation to lower his pad level, keep his feet moving and drive through contact. A running back who can get to the sideline, see he's walled off and step out before heinous contact is made. Though in moments where the tide needs to turn, a nice trucking makes sense. 

 

A linebacker who is aggressive against blockers, and tackles with attitude, but is also aware of the situation and doesn't routinely get flagged. 

 

If that's ideal, non-ideal:

 

A running back who dances instead of initiating contact up the middle and runs sideways to avoid it. 

 

A running back who seeks contact at all times all over the field. They won't hold up long.

 

A linebacker who is ho hum when shedding blocks. A linebacker who grabs facemasks and other areas to get off of blocks. 

 

I don't want you to play angry. I want you to play with controlled violence.

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I think Free Agency will end up dictating quite a bit with this draft. You have some more control over players you can get in free agency, and Rivera, Del Rio and company likely want to get some semblance of influence on the team through free agency. A bit more controllable/predictable if you will.

 

I truly think Chase Young is an absolute lock. Del Rio and Rivera are defensive coaches. Del Rio drafted Peppers at #2 when he was the DC in Carolina back in 2002. He drafted Von Miller #2 when he was the DC of Denver in 2013. Both of those defenses made transformational leaps the year after they drafted those stud rushers. I have to imagine both know the value, and know it well.

 

LB is the biggest question mark on this defense. I think it's fairly obvious that we will try and get after a CB and FS in free agency. The coach's assessment in the next month on what this team has at LB will be telling. If we are aggressive going after a high-end FA then that says it all. If they take an "veteran low-end" approach to LB in free agency, then I think they view the position of less of a need and want mainly a veteran presence to help get the youngsters up to speed. A veteran FA signing tells me they aren't desperate at LB and would be okay adding a mid-round LB to the group without requiring an immediate impact.

 

Focusing just on defense:

FA: CB1, FS, Veteran LB

Draft: Chase Young, LB, CB

 

As for the offense, that's a lot less predictable. I think it depends on what happens with the OL. If we extend Trent and re-sign Scherff (with the above defensive additions), I think the only main addition we make of high dollar is a TE. Could go big with Hooper or Henry or possibly a bit more "bargain" with Ebron type.

 

If I had to project from the above, I think you have a few "needs" to hit in the mid-rounds ... WR, LB, TE, OL and CB. I think 5th and earlier you can reasonably expect to get guys that will be rostered and even have impacts on the game. I wouldn't be shocked if we traded back from our 3rd and added another 4th in the process.

1. Young

3. WR

4. TE

4. OL

4. LB

5. CB

 

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Nice, thanks @KDawg it makes sense and I appreciate the examples. I’m glad you chimed in. 

 

Reading what you wrote makes makes me think that the top level should be controlled instinctual violence. 

 

If you run hot naturally, while channeling it through your instincts and controlling it with your mind/discipline is top level. That’s probably super rare in a prospect though. Some of that only comes with time, once you have all the necessary elements lined up that are needed for that high level process. 

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29 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I actually think he looks pretty great as a receiver. Very good length. Very good at high pointing the ball and hand catching. Good speed and quickness. I could see him being an immediate impact receiver on this team. Whether he can block or not is a whole other matter. In any case, I wouldn't mind him in the 3rd or 4th. 

 

From the TEs I watched, it's not per se top heavy with studs but there are a bunch of potentially decent players who could emerge with coaching.  

 

As for Hopkins, I complemented him as a receiver.  IMO I don't know if I'd go as far as great but he's good and maybe even very good IMO.  I said a half a peg below Hunter Bryant as a receiver because Bryant to me flat out looks like a receiver for better and worse.  But like I said Hopkins is dynamic and gets open.   I'd give a slight edge to Hunter as a receiver in part because he seemed (or at least did in the games I watched) to be more of a threat down the field.  But as a total player, I'd probably take Hopkins because while I am not wild about his blocking (don't hate it either) I do think he has more potential on that front than Hunter.

 

I don't see a ton of difference between Harrison Bryant, Hunter Bryant, and Brycen Hopkins as to an overall grade albeit they are different types of players.  I like Harrison and Brycen better than Hunter because I like their potential better as blockers.  I'd give a slight edge to Kmet over all three because of his blocking albeit i think the others are better receivers.  I got to dive into the TEs more but on first blush I think we can get a dude who can help in the 3rd-4th round range.  

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@Anselmheifer I think you asked me what I thought Montez Sweat's ceiling could be/what he could do in his next two years and I forgot to answer.  I'm a little unsure about his ceiling.  I liked him as a prospect last year, but didn't quite love him like I did Ferrell, Josh Allen, and Burns, etc.  Manifestly good size and speed, surprisingly good power, but there was joint stiffness and some segmentation as a rusher.  Underdevelopment in terms of walking up to the line with a good plan leaving him heavily reliant on athleticism for wins, much like Ferrell.  Truly extraordinary size though.  This chart spells it out pretty well: https://www.mockdraftable.com/player/montez-sweat
 

Very long legged build, which is what makes me think he'll stay fast as he gains weight.  The build is what the Danielle Hunter projection is based on.  Similarly tall, imposing players.  Similar ability to control blocks with long arms and huge hands.  He was a better run defender this season than I expected, and I think he has the potential to be elite in this area.  That was kind of the foundation for Hunter's game too, as he grew as a pass rusher and honed his playmaking instincts.  I always thought Hunter was more instinctive.  Really good at playing through his blocks and anticipating/reacting to subtle movement to make unusually difficult plays on the ball.  But Montez pleasantly surprised me in his ability to find the ball this year.  He sees the field better than I expected, which is a good sign for his development.  He's not as good a player as Hunter was as a 20 year old rookie, let alone as a 23 year old third year player.  So perhaps someone like Ziggy Ansah is a better projection/comparison for Sweat, although there is a huge difference between 4.6 and 4.4 speed in an edge player.  Ansah was really good as a second year player (perhaps peaked that year) as it was his All Pro season.  That was age 25 for him, so Montez is probably a little ahead of him and a little better earlier on.  I think he can hit a similar level of play either this year or next.

 

I think our personnel and new coaching provide an ideal situation for Montez to play in.  He's going to get to play as a hand in the dirt base end and he's going to get single blocked, even on point of attack runs because of DaRon Payne, Matthew Ioannidis, and Chase Young.  Yes, I'm assuming the pick will be Chase Young, which everyone is saying will happen and feels like a done deal.  Once we pick him, we will easily have the most athletic defensive line in the NFL.  I'm pretty confident they can become a superlative DL that the league will hold up as a model for showing the success of heavy investment in the position group, similar to what happened with San Francisco this year.  Could easily have four guys hit double digit sacks.  Montez can be a huge part of that success, maybe next season, but 2021 feels like a harvest year for us since Allen and Payne will be in their primes and he and CY will have the extra seasoning.  I could see something magical like Sweat making second team All-Pro and CY winning DPOY coming about that year.

 

We're in a really good spot.

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I have always been a trade-down slobbering fool. I always want to trade down because I always want more picks to draft players and positions that I like. Especially in the mid-rounds.

 

This year is just different. I have tried talking myself into wanting to trade down since it would give us immense draft capital and still get a stud like Simmons. I just can't talk myself into it. I don't know why. Maybe it's seeing the film on Young and the impact a guy like Bosa or Watt can have on the game and seeing how controlling the point of attack can absolutely change the game. We are close with our DL, but adding Young to the mix could make our defense elite. The idea of adding a new coaching staff (scheme), Chase Young, James Bradberry, Tre Boston and Rueben Foster to what we already have on defense is just too exciting to pass up.

 

Plus, I don't think this team has as many holes as people think. I guess that changes on the OL if we can't get Trent and Scherff back, big time. But for the time being, assuming those guys are back, I think we are in pretty good shape.

 

My dream scenario is not trading #2 for #5 and a slew of picks and drafting Simmons. 

 

My dream scenario is having Miami move up to #3 with Detroit early in the draft season (say, for #5 and #18). Then just ask Miami for their 2nd to swap 2 and 3. We get Chase and our 2nd rounder back. 

 

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40 minutes ago, Fresh8686 said:

Does that make sense? 

  

Then as far as factoring it in, the extreme ends of the spectrum have greater qualifying/disqualifying weight, that funnels from each side as it meets in the middle.  

  

And then maybe different positions might have different edge thresholds to meet in order to be deemed worthy of a pick.  

 

It does, and I think you outline and describe the styles of play very well.  But I think you're going a little too nuanced with your categorization.  Virtually everyone except for the most legendary hard ass players has made business decisions out there on the field before.  You have to be a lunatic not to, and sometimes it's the right call for your team too.  Similarly, pretty much everyone has lost their head and been way too aggressive before too, even the super smart and instinctive players like Mathieu and Taylor.  I would just do three categories in order to account for the varying temperament of a normal player:

 

1 - Soft = constant business decisions and a noted lack of interest in the blocking and tackling part of the sport.  Not a lot of these guys are going to make it for long in the NFL because you pretty much have to be a good blocker and/or tackler to be a good football player.  Jalen Raegor is my prominent example in this year's class.

 

2 - Clean = executing clean and not shying away from doing your job, generating or absorbing hard contact when the moment presents itself, but not really playing true violent football.  Guys who use their arms to play and are mostly only leaving their feet to tackle or make a play on the ball.  I would say the very large majority of players play the game this way.  Most guys don't want to get hurt and are conscientious about not doing a bunch of dangerous stuff that will get someone else hurt.  Kind of having a fraternal attitude to the league and the sport.  Jonah Williams is like the dead middle of the spectrum for me.

 

3 - Mean = going out of your way to play violent football.  Relishing blocking or tackling or running through tackles.  Being reckless.  And being influential on your teammates.  Jonathan Abram was the platonic example of this category for me last year.  Kenneth Murray is the guy for me this year.

 

But then the nuance comes from whether these guys are playing smart or playing knuckleheaded in each of these styles of play.  When Deion was playing soft, he wasn't killing his team because he was still an aggressive playmaker who got his job done.  But if your job is to seal a corner on an outside run to create the alley and you don't even try to get the block done, then you're being a knucklehead and hurting the team.  Same goes for everyone on the spectrum.  The violent guys who play smart are the great leaders like Kuechly and London Fletcher.  Then there are the over the top knuckleheads who hurt their teams and get guys hurt like Ndamukong Suh and Vontaze Burfict.

 

Could probably also make a special category for the few guys who are just dirty.  Basically just the guys who cheat and go after guys' knees and don't really care if they cause injuries.  These are usually marginal players trying to hang onto a spot in the league by hook or by crook.

 

I think being solidly in that #3 category but being smart is a really nice playing style to have in a player because, to me, it indicates leadership potential.  And leadership is always a positive and desirable quality to have in a player, no matter his position.  But I also think there are some positions where it's a little more necessary than others.  The trench warriors.  Your stack linebackers and DTs and your OLs.  If you don't get violence, toughness, and leadership from them, where are you going to get it?  You need it from somewhere and these are much less typical qualities of guys playing other positions.

 

So yeah, I do judge meanness/edge in evaluation and use it for ranking players.  I would use it as a tie-breaker for prospects of similar ability.  And I would also use it to rule out soft players.  They wouldn't fit into the kind of swaggering culture I'd want to build, and I also doubt many soft players make it to the NFL, much less have long careers.

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47 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I have always been a trade-down slobbering fool. I always want to trade down because I always want more picks to draft players and positions that I like. Especially in the mid-rounds.

 

This year is just different. I have tried talking myself into wanting to trade down since it would give us immense draft capital and still get a stud like Simmons. I just can't talk myself into it. I don't know why.

 

For me... The reason I wouldn't want to risk a trade down...

 

As much as I like Simmons for this defense and as a prospect and player, I think he has a higher bust potential than Young. And trading back to maybe acquire Simmons or Okudah, depending on where we trade back to, is a risky proposition. 

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2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

For me... The reason I wouldn't want to risk a trade down...

 

As much as I like Simmons for this defense and as a prospect and player, I think he has a higher bust potential than Young. And trading back to maybe acquire Simmons or Okudah, depending on where we trade back to, is a risky proposition. 

If you can get a pretty much guaranteed game changer for your team, you do it no questions asked.  My hunch is that they already have a plan in mind to acquire more picks,  and possibly pick up a second rounder as well. 

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3 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Any thoughts on the QBs?  We have a glaring need as (assuming Smith is not able to play), Haskins is the only QB on the roster.  A developmental QB is a must.  Any late round guys worth reviewing?

 

I'd say priority one at QB will be a vet. And I think Mariota is going to be in play, but we'll see on that front (and I'm not sure I love that or hate it). But that doesn't mean they won't draft a developmental guy. They will need someone to run the scout team stuff regardless. So I'd be interested in hearing if there is anyone who has dove that deep myself!

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1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

My dream scenario is having Miami move up to #3 with Detroit early in the draft season (say, for #5 and #18). Then just ask Miami for their 2nd to swap 2 and 3. We get Chase and our 2nd rounder back. 

 


Same. I’ve thought about this often, and have brought it up in this thread multiple times. The only problem I can see that would prevent this from happening is... why would the Lions make that trade pre-draft?  If they waited until draft day and waited for us to take Young, their leverage would be much higher and they’d get much more draft capital in the trade down.  
 

Even if we tried hard to sell pre-draft that we were looking to trade back, which means the Lions wouldn’t receive the haul they otherwise would... it would mean Chase Young falls right into their laps. Which is their dream scenario from everything I’ve read.  They’d be cheering us on to make that trade from #2 to #5 or w/e. 
 

So yeah, unfortunately it’s never going to happen unless the Lions do something irrational. 

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7 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

The Chargers could be a dark horse for wanting Tua.  

Yeah, for sure. But I don't know if what the Chargers could offer to move to #2 would > what the Dolphins would give us. And to move to #6 may take you out of getting Simmons or Okudah. Miami likely goes OT or WR there at 5 if the Chargers move to #2 for Tua. Or they take Herbert. Hard to really say.

 

But would LAC give us 1+2+3 and a 2021 1+2 to move up to 2? That's probably what it would take, because Miami is likely giving you #5 + #18 + a 3rd and a #2 next year.

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42 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

So yeah, unfortunately it’s never going to happen unless the Lions do something irrational. 

Yeah. This would require us to hard-sell being open to trade #2. Detroit might also jump at #5 and #18 if it were offered prematurely because if they wait until draft day, while they might get more, they might not. If we take Young ... Miami could call the bluff on moving up to #3. A bird in hand is better than 2 in the bush or whatever the saying is. So Detroit may jump at that offer. 

 

The question is does Miami offer that knowing Skins could trade #2 to someone else. So that would be a trade predicated on Miami negotiating with Washington for #2 before acquiring #3. 


All this is to say, it could happen but it would take the perfect storm. Everyone would have to essentially agree to win a "little" over potentially winning a lot. 

 

Miami only gives up #5, #18 and #37 to move up to #2 and take Tua, which is less than they might have to give up in other scenarios

Detroit gets #5 and gets one of Simmons or Okudah or Jeudy and picks up #18 in the process

Washington gets Chase Young and a 2nd rounder 

 

Everyone wins. But Detroit MIGHT make out if they held out for more picks after we take Chase ... but they also might not.

 

The underlying thing holding this scenario up is the Redskins being penciled in to taking Chase Young.

 

So Miami, in doing their due diligence this off-season calls Washington and asks what it will take to get to #2. "A lot ... and we are hearing from a number of teams. Depends on what we have come in. What would you be willing to offer to move up?" Miami: Well ..blah blah here's what's on the table. Washington: Well look, there's one scenario that we could see that would give the pick to you over anyone else and if you can make it happen, then we can have a real talk. If you can get #3 from Detroit, and we'd be guaranteed #3, then we could be open to falling back to #3 for a 2nd rounder. Otherwise, we may have to go to a team behind you that is offering us a lot right now./"

 

 

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4 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Yeah, for sure. But I don't know if what the Chargers could offer to move to #2 would > what the Dolphins would give us. And to move to #6 may take you out of getting Simmons or Okudah. Miami likely goes OT or WR there at 5 if the Chargers move to #2 for Tua. Or they take Herbert. Hard to really say.

 

But would LAC give us 1+2+3 and a 2021 1+2 to move up to 2? That's probably what it would take, because Miami is likely giving you #5 + #18 + a 3rd and a #2 next year.

Yeah, to me, the benefit of the Chargers wanting to move up for Tua is purely that Miami might feel more pressure to move up and therefore offer a richer bounty to do so.  
 

As of now, my goal is not to trade down in the draft.  Young is really an absolute no-brainer of a pick.  I’m going to be thrilled when we turn in our card and he’s announced as a ‘Skin.  I’ll temper my expectations from him, but I’m very excited to see him playing for us.

With that said, if we can get a very good prospect at a huge position of need - corner/linebacker (and Simmons is way more than ‘just’ a linebacker... he’s more of a chess piece, IMO) and have a high chance at two or more impact players... the calculus becomes a lot more interesting and uncertain, IMO.  

 

I understand people looking at certain trade backs in history and saying it’s dumb to bypass the ‘sure thing’.  OTOH, I trust our talent guys a lot more than the fools that landed us Thomas/Davis/Kelly... and this draft has a lot of good players at positions we either need, or could really use upgrades.  

 

Landing a shutdown corner opposite Dunbar (Okudah), a mauling tackle to pair with Scherff (replacing/upgrading from Moses and eventually taking over for Trent if he sticks), and adding a potential #1 type receiver?  That would be huge for this team.  

In theory, our dline is more potent under Del Rio and with Sweat developing, not to mention a big uptick in coverage helping the front 4, our passing game is potent, and our run game is more dangerous.  

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@skinny21 I agree that we should trust our front office now more than ever to make right on these picks. But for some reason #18 doesn't excite me too much. Maybe because I'm not sure just yet who we could get in that range, but the guys I really like in this draft are the earlier picks ... Top 10 guys. 

 

I just can't see any combination of picks (Even if we had 5/18/26) that would replicate the impact we could get from Chase Young. #18 and #26 could be pro-bowl talent or they could be solid starters we let walk in 5 years. Maybe Simmons and Okudah end up being All-Pro talents so it mitigates getting JAGs at 18 and 26 ... but just feel like Chase at #2 has that game-changer ability and you're getting him for a huge discount compared to the market ($20m per year) at DE for 4 years. 

 

And really at the end of the day the only trade that would get me to give up Chase would have to include #5, #18 and either #26 or #37 and a 2021 pick (Round 2 most likely).

 

I just can't get excited for a 2nd and 3rd this year from LAC and a 1st in 2021. One more pick removed from a choice of Simmons/Okudah and who knows what you could get in the 2nd and 3rd. And that #1 next year could be in the 20s if the Chargers bounce back. 

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I really think all this Trade down noise is Lions or Giants fans hoping that we pass on Young!!!!

 

Simmons looks good, but good grief, to pass on Young would be one of the dumber moves the org would have ever made.

 

Comparable to Trading away Bailey, or Signing Haynesworth.

 

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

@skinny21 And really at the end of the day the only trade that would get me to give up Chase would have to include #5, #18 and either #26 or #37 and a 2021 pick (Round 2 most likely).

 

 

 

Dont be suckered in by the fans of other teams making noise!

 

In Chase we Trust!!!

lol

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