Alex Smith Actual Status

[FrFan]

 

[Tsailand]

4 hours ago, carex said:

Personally I wonder if the team actually gets the money back or just the cap space back. 

 

You need to actually recover the money to get the cap space back.  This came up with Aaron Hernandez; the Pats were able to get out of paying him his remaining "guaranteed" money, but they couldn't get cap space back for the money they'd already given him.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/aaron-hernandez-indictment-could-mean-more-cap-space-for-patriots/

"However, the team is unlikely to get any more than that because any additional space would have to come from money directly recovered from Hernandez, money that's being drained by his mounting legal problems. "

[BraveWarrior]

12 hours ago, nonniey said:

The last one wasn't loaded and was considered to be a relatively weak  class compared to the previous two years. This class is considered to be much weaker.  Do we really want to go QB in the 1st or even 2d?

 

2018 was loaded, considering 5 QBs were taken in the 1st round. Only 1983 had more, with 6. 1999 also had 5. 

 

NOt crazy about having to think about taking one in the 1st or 2nd round. But anyone who rates lower would be a project or a hidden gem, which is of course something you can't predict. We're looking at needing a starter, as Smith likely won't be ready in September. Our options will be limited. Are there any sure starts set to hit free agency? Otherwise, what are we going to do if we don't draft?    

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

He doesn’t, which doesn’t mean it’s the wrong decision.

 

I was agreeing with you. But because it's Snyder, and the right thing to do, he won't.

 

[nonniey]

1 hour ago, BraveWarrior said:

 

2018 was loaded, considering 5 QBs were taken in the 1st round. Only 1983 had more, with 6. 1999 also had 5. 

 

NOt crazy about having to think about taking one in the 1st or 2nd round. But anyone who rateslower would be a project or a hidden gem, which is of course something you can't predict. We're looking at needing a starter, as Smith likely won't be ready in September. Our options will be limited. Are there any sure starts set to hit free agency? Otherwise, what are we going to do if we don't draft?    

So if multiple 2d -5th round talent QBs are reached for in the 1st that makes it a strong QB class? Wow. Just wow. 

[Est.1974]

Appears Smith was doing a decent job of holding this **** together though 9 games.

 

[Burgold]

8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN '74 said:

Appears Smith was doing a decent job of holding this **** together though 9 games.

 

That's what I think too. All the Smith bashers who wanted him gone have got what they wanted.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, Burgold said:

That's what I think too. All the Smith bashers who wanted him gone have got what they wanted.

 

 

I contribute that more to the multiple IR's for both guard positions than anything Smith ever did.

[Burgold]

1 minute ago, Morneblade said:

 

 

I contribute that more to the multiple IR's for both guard positions than anything Smith ever did.

This is what I think. Alex Smith was tough and a professional. I think he made just enough plays with his arms and legs to get us to 6-3. More importantly, he kept the team galvanized. Even more importantly, I think he checked out of a hell of a lot of Jay's pass plays. That's why when Alex Smith was in the Redskins were a run first team and the moment he left, the 'skins went back to Jay's history of being 70% Pass and 30% run.

 

Yeah, losing the guards hurt a lot, but I think we don't get to 6-3 with Colt McCoy or the Vikings' QB. Gruden has never shown an ability to do that. It makes no sense that Smith was making us a winner because he often looked like he sucked on the field, but he was winning and as soon as he left, everything fell apart.

[Ira]

I don't know who's the qb of the future for the Redskins.  I'm just hoping that he recovers full use of his leg.

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, Burgold said:

This is what I think. Alex Smith was tough and a professional. I think he made just enough plays with his arms and legs to get us to 6-3. More importantly, he kept the team galvanized. Even more importantly, I think he checked out of a hell of a lot of Jay's pass plays. That's why when Alex Smith was in the Redskins were a run first team and the moment he left, the 'skins went back to Jay's history of being 70% Pass and 30% run.

 

Yeah, losing the guards hurt a lot, but I think we don't get to 6-3 with Colt McCoy or the Vikings' QB. Gruden has never shown an ability to do that. It makes no sense that Smith was making us a winner because he often looked like he sucked on the field, but he was winning and as soon as he left, everything fell apart.

 

And I disagree.

 

Everything started to fall apart against the Falcons. The Tampa game was a once in a lifetime win because the Offense did nothing, the Defense gave up 500 yards, but Tamp kept giving the ball away. Smith didn't do anything to get credit for a win there. He was terrible. He was terrible the rest of the games he played in up to the Houston game.

[Burgold]

And that's okay. Part of the fun of this board is the disagreement. We both think the other wrong or, at least, not entirely right. Sadly, it doesn't matter and we won't be able to get our answer unless Alex Smith has a miracle come back.

 

Alex is likely done and if he's not done, he'll never be the same guy again.

[carex]

37 minutes ago, Burgold said:

And that's okay. Part of the fun of this board is the disagreement.

 

 

really can't agree, I hate being some place Skins related and having it be so negative

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

That's what I think too. All the Smith bashers who wanted him gone have got what they wanted.

Actually, the team was never that good to begin with.  There are reasons that practically everyone on earth that’s not a Skins fan thought they were fool’s gold early on.  This team had so many fortunate things take place to get to 6-3,  with health, bounces, doinks, and timely turnovers.  I was all for it, as those things don’t typically happen for us.  But knew all along that things typically return to the mean and said as much.  

[Burgold]

Just now, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Actually, the team was never that good to begin with.  There are reasons that practically everyone on earth that’s not a Skins fan thought they were fool’s gold early on.  This team had so many fortunate things take place to get to 6-3,  with health, bounces, doinks, and timely turnovers.  I was all for it, as those things don’t typically happen for us.  But knew all along that things typically return to the mean and said as much.  

You were never all for it. I don't think I've ever read a single positive post from you.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

35 minutes ago, Burgold said:

You were never all for it. I don't think I've ever read a single positive post from you.

I don’t think I’ve ever read anything from you that leads me to believe that you have so much as the faintest clue about what you watch every Sunday.   But I’m sure you’re not as silly as your posts lead me to believe.

 

I said several times that that I expected to win 10 games or more if in the event we stayed healthy and the good ju-ju stayed our way for an entire season.  

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

This is what I think. Alex Smith was tough and a professional. I think he made just enough plays with his arms and legs to get us to 6-3. More importantly, he kept the team galvanized. Even more importantly, I think he checked out of a hell of a lot of Jay's pass plays. That's why when Alex Smith was in the Redskins were a run first team and the moment he left, the 'skins went back to Jay's history of being 70% Pass and 30% run.

 

Yeah, losing the guards hurt a lot, but I think we don't get to 6-3 with Colt McCoy or the Vikings' QB. Gruden has never shown an ability to do that. It makes no sense that Smith was making us a winner because he often looked like he sucked on the field, but he was winning and as soon as he left, everything fell apart.

 

the 6-3 stuff baffles me.  Pro-football reference which records stats gave Alex a loss and puts him at 6-4 and includes the Texans game why do you feel otherwise?

 

They lost 2 out of the last three with Alex, and it could have easily been 3 in a row considering how putrid the offense was against Tampa.  Once the defense went south in the Atlanta game, they've been mediocre to putrid from that point on and they no longer carried the team.  Ditto the running game.  I can get the offense's struggles but the defense's fall is perplexing.

 

But yeah if the overriding point about Alex was always is he better than Sanchez or Colt McCoy?  I'd be one heck of an Alex Smith guy, too.  To me Alex played just like his QBR rating was 25th.  Seemed about right.  Colt is probably the 40th best QB -- and in his defense he really didn't have a chance to play to prove himself.  Sanchez maybe the 80th best QB?

 

but hopefully moving forward we aren't comparing our starting QB to dudes who are on the street.  We need to find a solution for 2019 and I don't think that guy is on the roster.  If Alex was healthy, yeah I'd take him over the other scrubs on the roster and said I'd take him over Colt before Alex even got hurt.  But i am doubting Alex will be ready.  So we got to look elsewhere -- Rapoport said the Redskins are looking for options for 2019 and don't expect Alex to be ready.  For Alex's sake hope he is back to good health first and foremost -- very sad what he's enduring.

 

Be an interesting off season -- need to find a QB, LG, WR, MLB and maybe CB too if Norman leaves.    And if Alex can come back healthy, I agree he's the best Qb on this roster.  But I think he was off to a disappointing start IMO (beat guys have said the coaching staff felt the same way) -- could he have improved, sure, but not sure we will get to see it.  If we do am guessing 2020.

 

 

 

[JSSkinz]

3 hours ago, Burgold said:

That's what I think too. All the Smith bashers who wanted him gone have got what they wanted.

We were already falling apart when he got hurt but it doesn't fit the narrative as well for the people who love some Alex, we had lost 2 of 3 when Colt started the Cowboys game, Alex wasn't going to beat the Cowboys or the Eagles because we have no run game and he's not a good passer.

 

You're either delusional or trolling to get a response.

[Springfield]

Alex Smith is done forever at this point.

[Burgold]

56 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

the 6-3 stuff baffles me.  Pro-football reference which records stats gave Alex a loss and puts him at 6-4 and includes the Texans game why do you feel otherwise?

 

You said this before, but if memory serves we were one screw job non penalty from winning that game. If the refs throw the pass interference flag, we hit a thirty yard field goal and win. Alex is 7-3 in his last game. The refs apologized for blowing the call and said they got it wrong.

 

Smith was not good here, but he was winning. The winning trumps good. The moment he left we not only stopped winning... we stopped being even remotely competitive.

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, Burgold said:

You said this before, but if memory serves we were one screw job non penalty from winning that game. If the refs throw the pass interference flag, we hit a thirty yard field goal and win. Alex is 7-3 in his last game. The refs apologized for blowing the call and said they got it wrong.

 

Smith was not good here, but he was winning. The winning trumps good. The moment he left we not only stopped winning... we stopped being even remotely competitive.

 

He played more than half that game, they were losing by 10 points, his QBR in that game was an abysmal 25, he threw 2 INTs.  Pro-football reference gave him the loss officially. 

 

It can't be both arguments -- where yeah he doesn't throw picks and that's why he wins and maybe he doesn't do comebacks but so what -- and at the same time throw that all out the window and say in that game the 2 picks don't matter, that time it would have proven the exception and we'd win in spite of the picks and while he didn't mount a single comeback all year long -- that game would have been different just because.  And heck it is counted by the record books as a loss;  https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/S/SmitAl03.htm  but we won't count it here. 

 

Only reason why I feel compelled to make the point is I think it actually weakens the Alex point when we started artificially inflating the numbers IMO.

 

The defense started to go south when Alex was still playing and the slide has continued and its a relevant point in the soup IMO.  Aside from the GB game, the passing game really hasn't led the dance all season.  Oddly, the Josh Johnson garbage time performance is the best we've seen all year from the passing game aside from the first half of the GB game.

 

But my larger point is I don't recall the argument was ever Alex versus Colt or Alex versus Sanchez where now we feel better about Alex in contrast.  I am with you, he's better than both dudes.   But yeah alas I do think his QBR stat represented his play -- 25th best in the league.  That makes him a bonafide starter albeit among the bottom ones this year but still better than a mere backup like Colt or just come scrub off the street like Sanchez.

 

I do think though the dude would have played better if given more time and better weapons.  As I've said on that thread multiple times -- for a QB that football outsiders deemed the check down king -- can you think of a worst supporting cast for check downs?    This isn't a YAC group as for the receivers.  So if he comes back healthy in 2019, I had some optimism he could figure things out especially with a better supporting cast.   But from what we are hearing, hope the dude heals period let alone worry about his 2019 comeback if it comes.  Crazy and sad what he's going through. 

[Burgold]

23 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

It can't be both arguments -

Of course, it can be both arguments because my argument is we were winning despite him not playing well. My argument is it made no sense that we were winning with him and yet we were. I think part of that was minimizing mistakes, but I think part of it was small, underappreciated timely plays, and another part of I've become convinced of is that he countermanded Jay and converted a whole bunch of pass plays into run plays. With Alex, we actually ran the ball and I think that's a big reason why we were winning. Once Alex fell, we stopped running the ball.

 

The reason it can be both arguments is because the reasons we were winning were nonsensical. Yet we were winning. You are trying to think using stats and logic and I think that is wrong footed. I'm thinking based solely in reality/what happened on the field. 

 

Basically, what I'm saying is the reason Alex won was a type of chaos theory that can't be explained using statistical mathematics.

 

Edit: For what it's worth, I know my argument sounds irrational, but I believe it fully.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Nevermind the fed ex truck drivers playing on the Oline, that have led to complete inability to successfully run the ball.  Nevermind the timely penalties of our Oline creating &20’s.

 

Not sure why anyone would think Alex would be successful given how things have played out.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, Burgold said:

Of course, it can be both arguments because my argument is we were winning despite him not playing well. My argument is it made no sense that we were winning with him and yet we were. I think part of that was minimizing mistakes, but I think part of it was small, underappreciated timely plays, and another part of I've become convinced of is that he countermanded Jay and converted a whole bunch of pass plays into run plays. With Alex, we actually ran the ball and I think that's a big reason why we were winning. Once Alex fell, we stopped running the ball.

 

The reason it can be both arguments is because the reasons we were winning were nonsensical. Yet we were winning. You are trying to think using stats and logic and I think that is wrong footed. I'm thinking based solely in reality/what happened on the field. 

 

Basically, what I'm saying is the reason Alex won was a type of chaos theory that can't be explained using statistical mathematics.

 

By both arguments I was saying we can't just say lets ignore the stats which gives him a 6-4 record because it just sounds better that he was 6-3 -- let alone the ignore the stat books and give him a 6-3 record instead argument is predicated on points that contradict the whole argument for why Alex is a so called winner which is turnovers kill you.

 

I used to be a teacher's assistant in stats in another life and I retained some of it though forgot much of it.    But yeah in football you have various variables that while aren't completely mutually exclusive they are at least close from being so where you can isolate stats and see that a strong unit can help offset a weaker one as an example.   So yeah is it some odd coincidence that when SF had a terrible defense, Alex was a loser record wise there and just by chance when the defense became really good, he became a winner all of a sudden?   And ditto with this team -- when the defenses plays good and created turn overs -- Alex is a winner -- if the defense plays bad then Alex is a loser.  As Dan Steinberg said, Alex is like Tofu, he took the color and taste of whatever else you threw in the pot for better or worse. 

 

Mark Sanchez a winner when the Jets had a dominant defense including a 4-2 playoff record -- a loser later in his career without a killer unit carrying him.  Is it that mysterious really?  Drew Brees a loser for years in NO, now all of a sudden a winner again with a good running game and better defense.

 

Nonetheless, I think I am spinning my wheels for no reason considering I doubt Alex is the QB in 2019.  Next step is finding the next guy.  And hopefully Alex is OK because while I think he was a mediocre at best QB here, and the winner narrative is nonsense IMO -- I do think he's a first class dude, great guy.  And yes better than Sanchez and Colt and I always thought so, I didn't need a lemon game from Sanchez to convince me or see Colt get hurt for the umpteenth time.   Wishing Alex a speedy recovery -- more important things than football. 

[aszumilo]

2 hours ago, Burgold said:

You said this before, but if memory serves we were one screw job non penalty from winning that game. If the refs throw the pass interference flag, we hit a thirty yard field goal and win. Alex is 7-3 in his last game. The refs apologized for blowing the call and said they got it wrong.

 

Smith was not good here, but he was winning. The winning trumps good. The moment he left we not only stopped winning... we stopped being even remotely competitive.

Except that non PI call was well after Alex was out of the game.  If the refs got the call right and we end up winning the game, wouldn't Colt get credit for winning that game?