2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[sportjunkie07]

4 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

So it was bad luck the last couple of seasons?  Rubbish, these guys have health issues and the OL is going to break down again this season.  

 

If you sources of information are defending a clearly depleted OL you need new sources of information.

I agree with you on the state of the oline and likely it is the biggest reason for our demise over the last two seasons. 

 

I disagree on taking not taking a more bpa approach though.. 

 

I believe weve got a more than a few things to iron out as a franchise in order to achieve long term success. Improving other units with a potentially elite player (let's say edge rusher or tight end) over an above average offensive lineman is the right move in the long term and could pay dividends faster than one thinks. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

4 hours ago, bowhunter said:

*Darrell Green*

 

Ok, fair point.  But if you're not the fastest player in the history of the NFL, running a 4.09 handtimed 40, then you bust in the NFL with the previously mentioned metrics.  Byron Murphy runs like a snail compared to Green.

 

Murphy has some positives for sure, but he is, imo, pretty scheme limited with a lower ceiling than you want from a 1st rounder.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

43 minutes ago, sportjunkie07 said:

Improving other units with a potentially elite player (let's say edge rusher or tight end) over an above average offensive lineman is the right move in the long term and could pay dividends faster than one thinks. 

 

 

Imagine adding Collins, Reuben Foster, and an elite edge rusher all in the same offseason. 

 

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

A draft board is not a Periodic Table, the values on a draft board are without question subjective, capricious and frequently ridiculous.  If the Redskins with an undermanned and unhealthy OL that collapsed the last two seasons doesn't use its top picks to address this foundational problem they deserve to lose.

No they're not. Ignore analytics at your own peril. We have the Cap, and we have decades of data to analyze the draft itself, and cap and draft capital investment in order to figure out the most efficacious means of utilizing draft capital, and cap room. Ignoring that is insanity, and fitting for a franchise that hired Richard Thaler, only to ignore his findings and let other franchises use them to their own benefit. You shouldn't be forcing picks, but you don't have to. We already know the best cap benefit when combines w/the success rate of draftees is clear: OT, DT, Edge, CB, QB and to a lesser extent WR. Keeps it relatively simple and it's actually quite a bit in line w/traditional perspectives on the draft anyway (eschew LB, FB, C, TE, S etc). 

 

 

[Anselmheifer]

Which member here posted so much on WR breakout age? I've been super busy, but I found that extremely interesting and...it makes total sense. Essentially, WR's are basketball athletes. In the NBA draft, there is almost no player that isn't good as a freshman or sophomore that goes on to be something. Players that really have it, show that they are players as freshman. WR's are similar run/jump athletes, but also have to have the ball skills and feel for the game. 

Looking at the draft using that paradigm, I'm much less inclined to like Hakeem Butler and much more fond of N'Keal Harry. That being said, I want Marquise Brown on the team. I wish there a way to add Brown and a defender. 

 

I think people are looking at Murphy the wrong way. He's not an elite boundary CB. I think he's a Tyrann Mathieu type player. A physical ball hawk that will be versatile and make a real impact. Murphy has slightly better size than Mathieu. Similar workout numbers. Byron Murphy had more turnovers and passes defensed in college. He is super physical. Versatile. He didn't have nearly the number of collegiate tackles as Mathieu, but I think is the superior player in coverage. Murphy will be able to line up and cover in the slot, and should also be able to cover outside. He has legit value at 15 and will be a steal for someone in the 20's. I agree with Mcqueen's evaluation of Murphy. Also, where is Mcqueen recently? In any case watch the physicality and ball skills and feel for the game in the video below. 

 

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/byron-murphy?id=32194d55-5240-5853-e4e5-d4f178b58b0b

http://www.nfl.com/player/tyrannmathieu/2540180/combine

 

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/byron-murphy-1.html

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/players/tyrann-mathieu-1.html

18 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

No they're not. Ignore analytics at your own peril. We have the Cap, and we have decades of data to analyze the draft itself, and cap and draft capital investment in order to figure out the most efficacious means of utilizing draft capital, and cap room. Ignoring that is insanity, and fitting for a franchise that hired Richard Thaler, only to ignore his findings and let other franchises use them to their own benefit. You shouldn't be forcing picks, but you don't have to. We already know the best cap benefit when combines w/the success rate of draftees is clear: OT, DT, Edge, CB, QB and to a lesser extent WR. Keeps it relatively simple and it's actually quite a bit in line w/traditional perspectives on the draft anyway (eschew LB, FB, C, TE, S etc). 

 

 

Exactly this. There is data. Don't believe everything you think. Just because the Redskins built a team on the backs of OL 30 years ago, doesn't mean we should eschew better players to draft OL. 

[volsmet]

Sterling Shippy

 

Jay Liggins

 

 

 

[volsmet]

14 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

We are going to have to agree to disagree.  You apparently are a true blue BPA guy and I am not especially when it comes to the OL which is the most important unit on any football team.  At 15 there will be a good starting OT available or a great starting guard, there is in any draft and the OL is what the team needs to improve.  Of course, there will be other athletes available at 15.  There will be lots of talent available at 47 for next pick too which should be a OG.

 

I don't give a crap about the so-called BPA nonsense, I want a decent OL going forward. 

 

Interior line play needs to be the top priority for Washington. Teams who can’t protect up the middle don’t win football games. Luck became a new man after Indi finally prioritized the middle of the line ... and then they got crushed when their youngsters couldn’t handle Chris Jones. QB’s become a lot better when they have clean underwear.

 

 

[volsmet]

14 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I'd said this for awhile (not that it is some major revelation, seems obvious) Jonah Williams if he falls to 15 like he does in some mocks might be our pick.  He's from Alabama.  He can play LG, and can be slated to take over for Trent at LT.  Seems up the FO's alley.  

 

Right now if I was handicapping it.  What I think is most likely going to happen

 

A.  They trade down  (and likely target Marquise Brown, N'Keal Harry, Noah Fant or some surprise player who falls)  I pick those players because different beat reporters said they like them. 

B.  They stay at 15 and take Clelin Ferrell 

C.  They stay at 15 and take Brian Burns.

D.  They stay at 15 and take Jonah Williams

 

The wildcard is maybe they take TJ Hockenson if he falls.    The other guy I wonder a little about is Devin Bush. 

 

If the report below is correct we might have 3 O lineman going before our pick.  J. Williams.  J. Taylor. A. Dillard.  If so that would be good if we want a surprise drop for a player like M. Sweat or whomever. 

 

 

Sweat is a top 5 prospect imo, I’d love to see him slide. Bush/Foster would be better than the Cowboys incredible duo in the middle. Dillard is interesting because of his athleticism, but he got worked at the sr bowl ... if I recall correctly, though that’s not particularly significant.  

 

This Nagy fella gets it. It’s good to see a few keeping up with the ES draft thread. 

 

 

 

Wonder about the arm arm length but Mcgary guy is a stud.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Sweat is a top 5 prospect imo, I’d love to see him slide. Bush/Foster would be better than the Cowboys incredible duo in the middle. Dillard is interesting because of his athleticism, but he got worked at the sr bowl ... if I recall correctly, though that’s not particularly significant.  

 

 

 

Yeah Foster is a beast but he does get banged up a lot and hopefully can stay out of trouble off the field.  Also if you team up Bush and Foster at MLB that's a ton of speed.  Sean Dion Hamilton is a bit undersized weight-physique wise at Mike MLB and I know Keim has said before they have concerns about that.  Mason Foster is slow.  So wonder if they are tempted to add Bush who can play Mike and is apparently a really smart dude who can call plays, leader too.  Reuben judging by his off field activities and very low Wonderlic score doesn't seem to be a rocket scientist albeit a missile as a Mo (weakside) MLB.   My point is Reuben might flourish even more with a dude like Bush playing right next to him. 

[DWinzit]

34 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah Foster is a beast but he does get banged up a lot and hopefully can stay out of trouble off the field.  Also if you team up Bush and Foster at MLB that's a ton of speed.  Sean Dion Hamilton is a bit undersized weight-physique wise at Mike MLB and I know Keim has said before they have concerns about that.  Mason Foster is slow.  So wonder if they are tempted to add Bush who can play Mike and is apparently a really smart dude who can call plays, leader too.  Reuben judging by his off field activities and very low Wonderlic score doesn't seem to be a rocket scientist albeit a missile as a Mo (weakside) MLB.   My point is Reuben might flourish even more with a dude like Bush playing right next to him. 

Without the Cowboys display of dynamic success up the middle I doubt they would consider this move but this is a copycat league! Wow what a tandem they would make flying all over the field. I hope Reuben has kept in shape and still has the fire because his athletic talent level is amazing. Poor Mason Foster would look like he is running with cement shoes when he came on the field...lol. I would imagine he would be cut and hopefully go to the Giants.

 

Reality, I think they still look hard at Burns and Sweat if they fall.

 

BTW, with the news of Marquise getting healthy, I am really opening my eyes to excitement he would bring to the offense.

[DWinzit]

20 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

Honestly, I don't know why we wouldn't look at underperforming TE's of high pedigree from the loaded '17 class to acquire via a discounted price in the trade market. If the Bears are stupid enough to invest a top 40ish pick on a TE they now believe is only good at blocking in Adam Shaheen, why not take advantage of that and offer them a day 3 pick and a conditional higher day 3 pick in '20 based upon performance targets? I might do the same with Jonnu Smith. In both cases the staffs that argued for said players are gone,  and in Shaheen's case, the new regime is talking about using him only as an inline option, and in Jonnu's case, drafting another TE. Why not sniff around? Both are/were terrific prospects and Shaheen's a great deal more athletic than their coaching staff seems to think. Another prospect I'd love to target is Baltimore's Mark Andrews. They wasted a top 20 pick on Hurst (a lot of people liked him here last year, i did not, not so much because of his talent or lack thereof, more because he was a crazy overage prospect, and even if he panned out, w/TE learning curves typically sitting at 2-3 years before productivity, Hurst would be at the peak of his prime (27) entering his year three season, rendering him a waste of a selection. When you have guys like Jonnu Smith and Shaheen turning 24 as they play their third NFL season, Everett at 25, and Andrews, Hurst's teammate, will only be 24 entering his third season, why are you wasting a pick on Hurst considering that roi based on age?  For example, the top 3 or 4 guys in this draft will be these ages when they start their third season:

Hockenson: 24

Fant: 23

Smith Jr 23

Warring: 24

 

A look at a couple of TE's who would be worth taking a look at in the trade market. 

Shaheen

Speed Score: 83rd Percentile (size adjusted)

Burst Score: 54th Percentile

Agility Score: 67th Percentile

Dominator: 95th Percentile

Breakout Age: 59th Percentile

 

Jonnu Smith:

Speed Score: 82 Percentile

Burst Score: 94th Percentile

Agility Score: 45th Percentile

Dominator: 92nd Percentile

Breakout Age: 100th Percentile

 

Gerald Everett, also a favorite of mine, but probably not under any consideration to be traded fills out the same card with 72nd percentile, 93rd percentile, 81st percentile, 90th percentile and 44th percentile respectively.

This is an excellent post hitting on the TE's extensive learning curb and bringing up really legitimate poorly used talent on current rosters. While I am not familiar with Everett I like the other, especially Andrews and Shaheen. 

[bowhunter]

50 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah Foster is a beast but he does get banged up a lot and hopefully can stay out of trouble off the field.  Also if you team up Bush and Foster at MLB that's a ton of speed.  Sean Dion Hamilton is a bit undersized weight-physique wise at Mike MLB and I know Keim has said before they have concerns about that.  Mason Foster is slow.  So wonder if they are tempted to add Bush who can play Mike and is apparently a really smart dude who can call plays, leader too.  Reuben judging by his off field activities and very low Wonderlic score doesn't seem to be a rocket scientist albeit a missile as a Mo (weakside) MLB.   My point is Reuben might flourish even more with a dude like Bush playing right next to him. 

I remember a lot of stuff incorrectly, but I think I remember SDH being touted as the cerebral chess player of the Bama front seven. Yes he might be undersized and not really as speedy as he could be. But with Allen and Payne in front of him he might not need to be the thumper. Sometimes the sum is greater than the individual  parts, perhaps SDH just might be that guy who can make it all work. Of course, that would be of no benefit if Manusky doesn't trust their adjustments.

[mhd24]

I just want Mason Foster off the team.  He is SO SLOW.  Foster not getting suspended is huge.  MLB is still a need even with SDH and Foster.  JHC is one backup, but we'd need a real MLB to back up Foster and potentially start over SDH.

[OVCChairman]

11 hours ago, bakedtater1 said:

Outside of veryoldschool it seems like erry budy would be livid if we went o line at 15..I'm not a draft guru and from what I've seen it's edge d line linebackers and qbs that seem to be the most popular but if there's an o linemen there that has jumped up the charts I wouldn't be upset if the skins went that route...than again any bright new shiny toy is a joy to Dawn the burgundy and gold!

 

 

Sorry if it came across that way but I would not be livid.

 

That said, it all depends on who is even there.  I absolutely do not want to reach out of desperation. 

 

If Hockenson is gone, Ford is on the board, and we can move back and recoup our 3rd that (in my own scenario) we traded for Rosen, I'd be more than happy getting Ford.  He's a tackle, who a lot of people speculate can play Guard.  He can come in, play LG for a season or two, and transition into a starter at T as Trent and Moses near the end of their contracts / careers.  

 

 

The only POSITION that I'd be 'livid' with us taking at 15 would be K / P.  If we trade for Rosen, i'd be pretty pissed if we took a QB.  That said, there would be obvious frustration if we reached a long way for a player at that spot, but that would be based on player value and not position of player.  If we draft Jones at 15 i'm gong to be mad.... because I think we'd be passing on multiple other players that could have a bigger impact than him.  

 

We need a dual threat TE, it changes the dynamic of our offense because we telegraph our playcalling with personnel way too much.  When Reed is on the field, it's a pass.  Sprinkle = Run.  Hockenson (if used correctly) can change that.  It opens up the passing game, the run game, and it makes play action deadly.  That is the reason i'm so high on him... not because he plays TE, but because of his fit..  and he's worth no. 15.  Now if we could trade back and get him later, that would be even better, but you're flirting with disaster because i dont think he makes it very far if he even makes it to 15.  

 

Long story short... No i would not be livid if we took O line at 15... I would however be livid if we took a 3rd round guard at 15, simply because of the notion that we need a guard. 

 

 

 

 

Edit:  it seems like there are a lot more O-line names sneaking into the 2nd half of the first round.  I haven't been able to follow it as much but i feel like months ago the only names you heard about early in this draft (1st round) were Cody Ford and Jonah Williams. 

[Bonez3]

I'm really amped to get a playmaker D prospect at 15. Wouldn't be upset if they went L but highly doubt that.

 

Fact is, if they ht on a playmaker at 15 on D this team is going to be playoff ready for next few years. D line stacked with talent, second level with Kerrigan/Foster/15th pick and secondary anchored by Collins should be more than average.

 

Pretty exciting addition with Foster, I really think we become an average team with our defense alone (8-8 range) with a nice LB at 15. Also would probably be BPA as well.

[volsmet]

On 4/10/2019 at 11:13 AM, The Consigliere said:

 

The visual references alone have me blushing in shame. I hate how I can get tonally at times, but I think it's reasonable to respond in an annoyed fashion if their told something they've said isn't true, when they've got an actual published article to back it up.

 

 

Yes, a cool article, man. I’m impressed by your sources.

 

4:35, my cousin, I’ll fwd him your post. 

 

 

[bakedtater1]

43 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Sorry if it came across that way but I would not be livid.

 

 

No not at all..was it you and veryoldschool who was conversating about going o lineman at 15?.. I just see bits and pieces of conversations and then do the stupid thing and comment lol... And I guess I worded that wrong I shouldn't have used livid because you didn't seem livid to me in the one post.. when is the last time the Redskins traded down in the first round?... I would absolutely love to see that, trade to the 20th spot somewhere around there and gather more draft picks.. but I highly doubt they do and with the excellent news on Foster and the addition of Collins I can't help but to think we use that 15 pick on something on the offensive side of the ball.. either way we're getting close ladies and gentlemen I cannot wait!!.. I'm still sticking to my prediction of something breaking on 420..

[volsmet]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah Foster is a beast but he does get banged up a lot and hopefully can stay out of trouble off the field.  Also if you team up Bush and Foster at MLB that's a ton of speed.  Sean Dion Hamilton is a bit undersized weight-physique wise at Mike MLB and I know Keim has said before they have concerns about that.  Mason Foster is slow.  So wonder if they are tempted to add Bush who can play Mike and is apparently a really smart dude who can call plays, leader too.  Reuben judging by his off field activities and very low Wonderlic score doesn't seem to be a rocket scientist albeit a missile as a Mo (weakside) MLB.   My point is Reuben might flourish even more with a dude like Bush playing right next to him. 

 

Two LBs, as explosive as Foster & Bush, along with our rugged gentlemen in the middle, would give us more options to create a pass rush. Foster, Bush & Collins can all get to the QB in a hurry while our big boys are eating up blocks - we’ll need to be creative to help cover our limitations in the secondary & at olb.

 

You can do more with Devin Bush than you can with Clelin v the pass & in keeping Barkley/Elliot I’m check.

 

Ah, to have Derwin with those two, how nice it would be.

[method man]

If Devin White falls take him as he is a generational talent. If Devin Bush, no not worth it. This draft seems to have a number of MLBs in the mid rounds who could start in the future. I’d rather go Foster / SDH / Harvey-Clemons / 5th or 6th round pick / Zach Vigil

 

Let Foster go. His lack of speed really hurts the entire D

My philosophy on draft is for non-premium positions such as ILB, S, TE and G, you only use early to mid first round picks on guys who have a high likelihood of becoming Pro Bowlers.

[volsmet]

14 minutes ago, method man said:

If Devin White falls take him as he is a generational talent. If Devin Bush, no not worth it. This draft seems to have a number of MLBs in the mid rounds who could start in the future.

 

What traits distinguish White from Bush so profoundly to you?

 

Other lb candidates; perhaps we luck into Sweat & one of these two.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[OVCChairman]

3 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

No not at all..was it you and veryoldschool who was conversating about going o lineman at 15?.. I just see bits and pieces of conversations and then do the stupid thing and comment lol... And I guess I worded that wrong I shouldn't have used livid because you didn't seem livid to me in the one post.. when is the last time the Redskins traded down in the first round?... I would absolutely love to see that, trade to the 20th spot somewhere around there and gather more draft picks.. but I highly doubt they do and with the excellent news on Foster and the addition of Collins I can't help but to think we use that 15 pick on something on the offensive side of the ball.. either way we're getting close ladies and gentlemen I cannot wait!!.. I'm still sticking to my prediction of something breaking on 420..

 

 

no it wasnt me. 

 

i do the same thing bud.  Half the time I force myself to go back a page before I quote someone because I don't wanna just jump in and draw a quick conclusion.  

I can see that happening, and I can see it being Rosen.  I don't see why Arizona would wait til draft day to initiate that trade.  It would be very risky, with the only added benefit being that a team gets desperate and overpays.  With the number of QB 'needy' teams, mixed with the number of QBs at the top of the draft, i don't think anybody gets desperate on draft day and Rosen's stock plummets.  There's not strategic value for Arizona to keep us guessing whether or not they want Murray at no. 1.  The only other thing that I could see is they are holding out til the last minute to see if someone comes to the table with an absurd offer for no. 1 overall.. which for the same reason's listed above, I don't think the risk is worth it.  

[PlayAction]

33 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

who was conversating about going o lineman at 15?.. 

 

OL has been discussed at various points over the last several dead football months.  The OTs that come up most often as first round picks include:  Jawaan Taylor, Andre Dillard, Jonah Williams and Cody Ford.  Ford is often listed as a G rather than T.  Casserly likes Greg Little but others peg him as 3rd round talent.  I don't think anyone expects Taylor to drop to 15.  Dillard and Williams are certainly possibilities depending upon whether teams go early for QBs and Edge rushers.  Dillard is the best pass protector and that will be highly valued by a pass-heavy team.  I think Ford will have an issue in that he's been pegged by some as a G and there are many Guards available in the 2nd round.  The one that may be #15 value and may be there when the Skins pick is Williams.  If this happens and Skins pick him I would not be livid.  It would be a smart move IMO.  He either plays LG immediately or takes over at LT now and Trent moves inside.  A quality Tackle is worth a first round pick.     

[Est.1974]

From what I can find, 15 of our 16 publicised private visits are either  QB/OL/WR. The exception to date being Blake Cashman 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Two LBs, as explosive as Foster & Bush, along with our rugged gentlemen in the middle, would give us more options to create a pass rush. Foster, Bush & Collins can all get to the QB in a hurry while our big boys are eating up blocks - we’ll need to be creative to help cover our limitations in the secondary & at olb.

 

You can do more with Devin Bush than you can with Clelin v the pass & in keeping Barkley/Elliot I’m check.

 

 

Agree. 

 

Manusky isn't an exotic blitz dude.  But when he goes there its typically a Double A Gap blitz utilizing the MLBs.  Sometimes he will have the MLB just either stand up right around the line of scrimmage and just take off after the QB or fake pressure that way.  He doesn't really have the horses though to bring any fear with the MLBs we've had.  But Devin Bush I think would change all of that. He is a natural pass rusher for a MLB.  4.5 sacks last year.  5.5 sacks the year before.   And if you watch some of his sacks the dude just flies after the QB.   Some marvel at Zack Brown's speed for a MLB but heck Bush is faster than him.  And while Zach has the reputation of not being a cerebral player -- Bush on the other hand is known to be super smart.

 

London Fletcher was a Mike MLB, a bit undersized, really fast, leader, smart, brought passion.   Devin Bush to me looks like the same kind of player with maybe even higher upside. 

 

It's taking me awhile to dive into watching Bush thoroughly but I could dig that pick if he falls to 15.  Seems like many mocks now have him going before our pick. 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

18 hours ago, Veryoldschool said:

 

So it was bad luck the last couple of seasons?  Rubbish, these guys have health issues and the OL is going to break down again this season.  

 

If you sources of information are defending a clearly depleted OL you need new sources of information.

Health issues relate to age and area and type of injury (and sometimes the medical staff).Some of these things apply to the OL but most don’t. Silverback is the only player specific concern we should have due to age.