2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's been awhile since I looked at Irv Smith.  He was one of my man crushes during the college season, though.  Yeah I agree I think there is a shot that he's there in the 2nd.  He didn't have a good combine which I think contributes to that fall.   

 

 

Yeah, from what I've watched of it, Irv Smith's tape doesn't look bad but his combine numbers were god awful outside of a decent 40 time. 32.5 inch vertical, 110 inch broad, 7.32 3 cone, 4.22 20 yard shuttle. Those are really crappy for his position and makes me worry about his ability to cut and run good routes. 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/7/2019 at 12:58 PM, Brixtion_skin said:

 

Where is Russell Wilson?

Wilson was a 3rd round pick (75th, day 2 these days). 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/7/2019 at 3:52 AM, actorguy1 said:

Will Grier is on people's radar if you only look at stats and not game tape. YPA of 9.0, average depth of target 10.2 yards, QBR score of 78, 65.7 completion percentage. That's the only reason. 

 

That's the problem though. If you grade Grier on what he actually did, rather than using much more biased evaluation tools (your eyes, your preferences in a throwing motion, footwork, mechanics etc) you get a better prospect.

 

That's why there's an eternal debate. The raw #'s are the only pieces of information available not likely to be biased (and I cede that people can manipulate and cherry pick statistics to suit their needs, but raw #'s are still raw #'s, ditto models people build that have a hood you can put up to look at said process). When it comes to tape scouts, bias is huge.

 

Just think of Leonard Fournette and the bias people have for RB's blowing up other LB's and DB's (think Derrick Henry late season surge last year as well). Now consider analytics geeks who noted that he got virtually all of his production while running with a fullback in an I formation which would not be replicable in the NFL where fullbacks are a vanishing breed.

 

People's eyes fool them. Grier's got a weak arm. But Grier also finished above the 90th percentile in throwing velocity (this stat is also confusing and analytics people are trying to figure out how throw velocity and arm strength relate in terms of deep passing because there are throwers like DeShaun Watson who are horrific in terms of velocity, but also throw a nice deep ball. 

 

The wisest course to me is to take in as much information as possible, and then remove whenever possible for clear examples of bias, and utilize bias. Over time I've ever more towards analytics, but I know that from time to time, tape guys nail players that the analytics guys didn't quite like as much (Kareem Hunt) because of things they see that aren't in the #'s. How can you evaluate "contact balance" with statistical tools. Agility might help, but it's not perfect. My favorite is what rotoviz and Matt Kelley do. They work their butt's off to build statistical models that help to produce reliable projections, though not perfect ones, they so far only help me in particular at RB and WR, but they are VERY VERY good at sniffing out future busts, and lesser rated prospects who are special talents (Godwin was the #2 WR on Kelley's board, and Godwin won the rotoviz WR Tournament (set up like the NCAA, where value (draft capital to acquire was incorporated in their ratings). They both nailed Samuel, and Godwin, and rated Juju much higher than consensus due to breakout age. Both didn't like Mike Williams or John ross. They've consistently had rankings that don't match the tape guys and they always overall, do better. I think it's in the bias angle. It's very hard to remove bias when scouting players particularly playmakers.

 

There's no perfect way to do this, but I think finding tape guys w/a good if not great track record (Matt Waldman has been pretty good, he had Chubb #1A to Barkley's 1B on his board last year while a ton of people had him 4th or lower, and he nailed Chubb for instance) helps, and also finding the right analytics guys to read. I've come to believe that there's just a lot more bias with tape people.

 

QB is its own issue, it's so damn hard to evaluate after all.

 

That being said, Tape Scouts didn't even have Mayfield in their halfway through the '17 college season and analytics guys had him #1 all the way and their #1 QB prospect since Luck and it looks like they nailed that one too. 

 

 

[volsmet]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

That's the problem though. If you grade Grier on what he actually did, rather than using much more biased evaluation tools (your eyes, your preferences in a throwing motion, footwork, mechanics etc) you get a better prospect.

 

 

Well written post, and it sounds like that should be correct, but if you dive into the analysis you’ll see that 0% of Grier’s highly rated throws were the kind of throws that are at the top for NFL QB’s. When you rely on numbers, but don’t know what a coach did to create them, you fall in love with things you can’t replicate in the NFL. 

 

8 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

 

That being said, Tape Scouts didn't even have Mayfield in their halfway through the '17 college season and analytics guys had him #1 all the way and their #1 QB prospect since Luck and it looks like they nailed that one too. 

 

 

 

That’s simply not true. 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/7/2019 at 5:01 AM, Skin'emAlive said:

 

A day 3 quarterback in this draft very well could be a starter. Every draft produces up to 3 starting quarterbacks ( and never really more than that.) Kyler, Haskins, and then... it’s a toss up after that. Jones, Lock, Grier are all part of that gray area that could be backup, starter, or bust. I personally think team fit and pieces are the deciding factor here on those 3. After that, you are really taking a shot in the dark with guys like Minshew, Jackson, and others. 

 

This is a tough one to evaluate, because it kinda depends upon what you mean by "starting QB". Do you mean a guy who lands a starting gig full time for multiple years? Has a long career as a backup and sometime starter, or more, or purely a multicontract starter? If you mean the 1st argument, then you're wrong, if you mean the 2nd, you're right, if you mean the third you're definitely wrong. It all depends upon what you mean by starter. Some examples:

 

Patrick Ramsey: Does he count? Never a full time starter, for even a single full season, but started multiple games as a part time starter.

 

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Does he count? Fitzmagic and all, but never the full time guy for multiple years?

 

Derek Anderson: Guys like him or Josh Freeman were full time starters, but it was a "flash" and gone. 

 

I'd also never go w/an argument of such design: the past has played out a certain way (it actually hasn't, but for the purposes of your argument lets imagine it has) so the future will play out the same. That just isn't logical. It's built around fallacious reasoning. Tomorrow Never Knows, to quote John Lennon, every draft is its own class, some quality, some not. 

 

Let's imagine you view a draft as having 3 starters, meaning in a multiyear sense as a full time starter. There are quite a few years that did not produce 3 long term starting QB's this century that do not fit that tag, namely:

2001, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2013, and 2015.

 

I'll cede that all of this depends upon your argument, if you're open to career backups that collected a reasonable amount of starts, and heck may have started for a season (Tyrod Taylor and Josh McCown types), then that ups the hit rate to your territory. It depends on what you mean by "3 starters" but to me, a starter is a starter, not a 1 year blip guy (Derek Anderso) or a guy like Josh McCown or Blaine Gabbert, all of whom would be considered busts if taken to be starters by their teams.

 

So I'm not really sold on the idea. To me this draft screams 2002, 2008, and  2013. It just reeks of that kind of crappiness. Actually even '15 might apply as after the top 2 picks, you get a bunch of total scrubs like Garrett Grayson overdrafted because teams needed QB's. 

 

2000:

Pennington: Multiyear Starter

Bulger: Multiyear Starer

Brady: HOF

 

2001:

Michael Vick: Multiyear Starter

Drew Brees: HOF

-----------------

Quincy Carter: Part Time 1 contract starter

AJ Feeley: Briefly a starter during one season.

 

2002: 

 

David Carr: Multiyear starter

David Garrard: Multiyear Starter

Josh McCown: Multiyear Starter/Backup

---------------

Joey Harrington: Bust though a starter for a short time. 

Patrick Ramsey: Never a full time starter.

 

2003:

Carson Palmer: Multiyear Starter

Byron Leftwich: Multiyear Starter

Chris Simms: Briefly a starter

Rex Grossman: Multiyear Starter

 

2004:

Eli Manning: Borderline HOF (based on Super Bowls alone)

Philip Rivers: HOF

Ben Roth: HOF

Matt Schaub: Multiyear Starter

 

2005:

Alex Smith: Multiyear Starter

Aaron rodgers: HOF

Jason Campbell: Multiyear Starter

Kyle Orton: Multiyear Starter

Matt Cassel: Multiyear Starter

---

Derek Anderson: Single Season fulltime starter

Ryan Fitzpatrick: Career Backup

 

2006:

Vince Young: Multiyear Starter

Jay Cutler: Multiyear Starter

 

2007:

Zero:

If you want to be forgiving, you did get a bunch of brief backups: Kevin Kolb, Brady Quinn, John Beck, Drew Stanton, and mega bust Russel

 

2008:

Matt Ryan: Multiyear Fulltime Starter

Joe Flacco Multiyear Fulltime Starter

--------

Chad Henne: Career Backup

Matt Flynn and Josh Johnson combined for about a dozen starts between them over the past decade.

 

2009:

Matt Stafford: Multiyear Starter

Mark Sanchez: Multiyear Starter and backup

---

Josh Freeman: 1 year flash in the pan.

 

2010:

Sam Bradford: Multiyear Starter/Bust

---

Colt McCoy: Long term backup 

Tim Tebow

Jimmy Clausen

 

2011: 

Cam Newton: Multiyear Starter

Andy Dalton: Multiyear Starter

Kap: Multiyear Starter

----

Tyrod Taylor: Spot starter/1 season full time starter (mostly)

Blaine Gabbert: career backup

Jake Locker, Christian Ponder: Megabusts

 

2012:

Andrew Luck: Multiyear Starter

Russell Wilson: HOF

Kirk Cousins: Multiyear Starter

Ryan Tannehill and Nick Foles: Multiyear Starters w/backup talent.

---------

RGIII: Career Backup w/1 flash year

Osweiler and Weeden: Career Backups

 

2013:

Zero Long Term Starters

 

Career Backups or Busts:

EJ Manuel

Geno Smith

Matt Barkley

Mike Glennon

Landry Jones

 

2014:

Derek Carr, Blake Bortles, Jimmy garoppolo: Multiyear Starters (gonna assume that w/Garoppolo

 

Backups:

Savage, McCarron, Mettenberger and Bridgewater

 

2015:

Winston: Multiyear Starter

Mariota: Multiyear Starter

Backups:

Siemian and Hundley

 

2016:

Goff: Multiyear Starter

Wentz: Multiyear Starter

Prescott: Multiyear Starter

 

Backups: Kessler, Brissett, Sudfeld, Driskell

 

Busts: Lynch and Hackenburg

 

2017:

Mahomes, Watson and Trubisky are all multiyear starters

Everyone else looks like a bust or a backup at best.

 

2018:

Too early to grade, but this is a class that will have multiple multiyear starters, and lots of backups too. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

on another note, Cooley likes Warring.  And Cooley isn't an easy man to please he seems to slam more prospects than tout.  Since he played TE, I take him most seriously on this position.  I've watched a little of Warring but not much. Big dude.  Not a lot of production though, yet.  An absolute athletic freak though especially for his size.

 

 

Which podcast did Cooley talk about Warring?

[Berggy9598]

1 hour ago, volsmet said:

 

Well written post, and it sounds like that should be correct, but if you dive into the analysis you’ll see that 0% of Grier’s highly rated throws were the kind of throws that are at the top for NFL QB’s. When you rely on numbers, but don’t know what a coach did to create them, you fall in love with things you can’t replicate in the NFL. 

 

 

That’s simply not true. 

Doesn’t take into account the two (at least) NFL receivers lined up against B12 corners. Raw numbers are highly biased. 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/7/2019 at 9:43 AM, bakedtater1 said:

Starting to sound like a broken record here... I am that is... If wishes were fishes..

I appreciate this man..I've been seeing a lot of the same kind of post I guess or similar type stuff and I think even some videos I've watched about Metcalf.. yeah I'll definitely pass on his freakish athletic ability if he's not able to run routes.. if you're talking about that AJ Brown from Oklahoma is that correct? Either way I want that receiver from Oklahoma.. more and more I'm reading about Metcalf more and more I hope we don't get him.. then of course it will bite me in the ass and he will go to the cowgirls and he'll ball out lol

I get too strident sometimes, arguing a position I don't entirely hold. In this draft I have a hard time situation DK Metcalf, which is why I like the idea of listing the WR's in terms of ceiling and floor, his floor is super low, his ceiling is probably the highest in the class. I tend to think he probably makes it and becomes an explosive, big play guy in the vein of Andre Johnson (his comp at player profiler), or Desean Jackson minus the agility (4th percentile versus 73rd percetile), but yeah, Metcalf's ceiling is Andre Johnson like insane, but his floor is megabust, and there's a reasonable chance he hits his floor rather than his ceiling.

 

I am not referring to Marquise Brown in my posts, I'm referring to A.J. Brown, Metcalf's vastly healthier and significantly more productive teammate at Ole Miss.

 

Brown's Profile:

89th percentile speed score

56th percentile burst score

59th percentile dominator (market share of offense)

59th percentile breakout age (A.J. Brown was a Juco Transfer which hampers that number)

 

Brown's comp is Dwayne Bowe (classic example of a non-professional elite WR who got by on his otherworldly talents until his lack of quality work habits sabotaged the second half of his career. 

 

He's pegged as an exceedingly odd body type slot WR (rare to find guys w/his bulk at his height, he's 6'0" 226) but he was actually used all over the place, maybe because of DK's penchant to get hurt, can't be sure. Always worth while to take a look at Harmon's reception perception which mixes tape style analysis withe an analytical approach to player usage:

link:

 

https://www.thefantasyfootballers.com/articles/reception-perception-a-j-brown/

 

 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/7/2019 at 3:44 PM, actorguy1 said:

I did mention that my list did not include the DT's  of Williams and Oliver. Jeffrey Simmons tore his ACL in November so possibly out most of the year and the video of him hitting a woman while in college will definitely drop him down. Not sure I want him though.

Thanks, sorry about that, I assumed you weren't rating them because most of them will go inside the top 5 w/o a second though, so I understand not listing them. The fact that we just used back to back picks on a DT is also very much worthy of note, so I got you there. 

On 4/7/2019 at 7:11 PM, HigSkin said:

Hmmmm....

 

 

 

 

That's fine w/me. I'd be really worried if we took Butler or Metcalf. Way too much bust risk for my taste. That being said, I think AJ Brown is going to be a HUGE HUGE value for whomever steals him, probably N'Keal harry as well. Wonder if teams are gunshy. If guys like Mike Williams and John Ross went top 10ish, guys like Brown, Neal and hell even Metcalf and Butler, have better profiles, so arguing none is worth a top 15 pick is kind of idiotic.

 

That being said, I wouldn't either. It's the deepest WR draft since the best ever class in '14, and we could find plenty of help in round 2 or a trade up during round 2 or 3. 

[The Consigliere]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

was just going to post this.  For Stevemcqueen1 

For all my negativity towards him, there is no questioning what he did last year. I just remain totally befuddled at his lack of production in his prior years. There wasn't even that much competition for targets beyond Lazard and he still didn't breakout till he was overage. Very few overrage breakout WR's become successful at the next level. Maybe he is one. I sure as heck would like to know why it didnt happen for him until '18. 

[Skin'emAlive]

@The Consigliere

I agree with most of what you said here except the assumption of who is a multi year starter and who is not with regards to this draft. 

It is too soon for us to judge, and I personally think all the quarterbacks in this class have question marks.

 

Murray: can he take a hit in the nfl and survive 

Haskins: can he run an offense where 90% of his throws aren’t short?

Lock: can he develop touch?

Grier: will he learn to get rid of the ball instead of holding it too long leading to massive losses? 

Jackson: can he develop into an nfl qb?

Jones: does he have the mentality to lead a team of grown men each week? 

 

Its too too early to tell, and no one is a guarantee. 

 

With regards to Rosen, there are 2 sample sizes from which to reference; both of which show similar negatives. Can that be fixed? Perhaps. Do I trust our organization to be the one to do it? No. Not particularly. I don’t think we have the pieces to pull it off anyways. Nor do I think it is best to put all our chips in on a guy that has already been cast away. Like a kicker, golfer, pitcher, and batter, confidence is really important at this level.  He might say the right things, but reality is that a lot of people lost their jobs with last years’ failure in Arizona, including rosen, and that surely will weigh and compound on his mind if things don’t go well early here. 

[volsmet]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

For all my negativity towards him, there is no questioning what he did last year. I just remain totally befuddled at his lack of production in his prior years. There wasn't even that much competition for targets beyond Lazard and he still didn't breakout till he was overage. Very few overrage breakout WR's become successful at the next level. Maybe he is one. I sure as heck would like to know why it didnt happen for him until '18. 

 

Played 2 sports in HS, moved a thousand miles from home after his mom died of cancer in 2012, redshirted, played a bit as a rs freshman, was honorable mention all conference as a rsoph, crushed as a rsjr. Seems easy enough to put together.

 

[The Consigliere]

On 4/8/2019 at 8:51 AM, Anselmheifer said:

This. Just, obviously, this. I love Ryan Kerrigan and Trent Williams. They work hard and play hurt and are pro's pro's. You never manage the team based on what is best for your OLB and LT this year. You manage the team based on the long term best interests of a franchise. If there is a window to win a Super Bowl, that's obviously in the best long term interest, even though it's a short term goal. Otherwise, just keep building. 

Regarding Kirk and Alex Smith, Kirk's current contract is too rich, but we could have signed him for much less before the double franchise tag. And there is an enormous difference between a 30yo QB and a 34 yo QB. Regretting Alex Smith isn't hind sight. Tons of members here thought it was a poor trade/signing. We would have been better off just tanking than signing a 34yo game manager. The utterly obvious outcome of that trade was always that our best case scenario is to contend for a wild card for 2-3 years and then have to find another QB. 

 

Regarding the WR's I think the only value at 15 would be Marquise Brown, and I think you could get him later. I've warmed to the idea of adding Brown as an explosive playmaker/speed receiver. We have utterly lacked that element since Desean left. Also, when I watch AJ Brown, I see a lesser Deebo Samuel, but without the health issues? I'd rather have Deebo, I think. 

 

The relevance of the middle paragraph for me is two fold.

#1 the same architects of that botched resigning and idiotic trade are still in place.

#2 All aspects of that QB situation from the botched resigning to the moronic trade are all captured under the umbrella of bad process. As long as you have a franchise that systematically engages in bad process you have no hope to speak of.

 

Right now we have an owner that's got a 20 year history of thoroughly incompetent and often malicious mismanagement of the franchise. Even an egomaniac like Richard Thaler was completely gobsmacked at the idiocy of the franchise after he was hired to do a systematic review of draft process. We have a GM whose basically become the Ernie Grunfeld of the Redskins, unfireable no matter how many franchise killing mistakes he makes.

Kind of astonishing, we have had back to back to back horrific GM's for the past thirty years since Beathard retired (and I had plenty of issues with Beathard: superb w/trades, and professional player roster management, but sketchy at best w/drafting) in Casserly, Cerrato and Allen. Pretty astonishing, it's kind of like walking through the Gardens of Versailles and managing to step onto all 3 of the only random piles of dog poop dropped on the premises over the previous 30 years combined. Somehow, someway, we keep managing to find the foulest smelling, most repulsively ill equipped management leaders in the league, and immediately we consistently hire them on the spot. 

 

I have hope, but I need a firing, and a guy to either drop dead, or have a personality transplant to actually believe in said hope.  

[The Consigliere]

10 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

on another note, Cooley likes Warring.  And Cooley isn't an easy man to please he seems to slam more prospects than tout.  Since he played TE, I take him most seriously on this position.  I've watched a little of Warring but not much. Big dude.  Not a lot of production though, yet.  An absolute athletic freak though especially for his size.

 

So as for TE's Cooley so far has said he likes Hockenson, Warring, Sternberger.  But he's not enamored with Noah Fant.  He thinks that TE is the bigger need on this team as opposed to WR.  His thought plays off of what's been discussed here including by me -- our one dimensional TEs limit what the offense can do and is too much of a tell for opposing defenses.  So he thinks we are desperate for a Y type TE. 

 

 

 

Don't really care too much about his opinion other than sniffing out potential TE busts. But will say Warring does look interesting. When is he projected to go? I hadn't heard of him at all until this past month and normally I know all the playmaking prospects pretty early (just because of Dynasty Rookie Drafts). 

[The Consigliere]

5 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Well written post, and it sounds like that should be correct, but if you dive into the analysis you’ll see that 0% of Grier’s highly rated throws were the kind of throws that are at the top for NFL QB’s. When you rely on numbers, but don’t know what a coach did to create them, you fall in love with things you can’t replicate in the NFL. 

 

 

That’s simply not true. 

 

Umm, actually, yes it is. It's based on an article from SI 18 months ago, Albert Breer spoke with 8 NFL evaluators (my guess is a mix of scouts and GM's, but it may have just been scouts), and in mid october of '17, on a ballot system that awarded 5 points for a 1st place ranking through 1 point for a 5th place ranking and everything inbetween and got this result. It's not random sampling, it's just guys Breer was able to reach to conduct this poll with who do the job. But this is important to emphasize and it is emphatically true. In my experience, most of the guys I respected at the time had it: 1. Rosen 2. Darnold 3. Allen 4. Mayfield, 5. Jackson then a tier drop, (I had it 1 Mayfield 2. Rosen 3 Darnold then a big tier drop with Darnold and Rosen essentially even but w/a slight edge to Rosen based upon his more refined approach to Darnold's higher ceiling).  Anyway, here's the how the vote played out and a link to the article. 

 

1. Darnold-35 points

2. Rosen-34 points

3. Allen-23 points

4. Falk-10 points

5. Rudolph-7 points

6. Mayfield-6 points

7. Lamar Jackson-5 Points

8. Findlay-1 point

Link:

https://www.si.com/nfl/2017/10/17/2018-nfl-draft-quarterbacks-qb-rankings-sam-darnold-josh-rosen-lamar-jackson-josh-allen

 

 

Oh and as for Grier. We'll see how it plays out. I think he's worth a dart if he falls, but I don't expect him to fall to where he becomes a value so I'd never draft him at current valuation, but I definitely think he's in the conversation for the #3 QB in a ghastly QB class. 

2 hours ago, Skin'emAlive said:

@The Consigliere

I agree with most of what you said here except the assumption of who is a multi year starter and who is not with regards to this draft. 

It is too soon for us to judge, and I personally think all the quarterbacks in this class have question marks.

 

Murray: can he take a hit in the nfl and survive 

Haskins: can he run an offense where 90% of his throws aren’t short?

Lock: can he develop touch?

Grier: will he learn to get rid of the ball instead of holding it too long leading to massive losses? 

Jackson: can he develop into an nfl qb?

Jones: does he have the mentality to lead a team of grown men each week? 

 

Its too too early to tell, and no one is a guarantee. 

 

With regards to Rosen, there are 2 sample sizes from which to reference; both of which show similar negatives. Can that be fixed? Perhaps. Do I trust our organization to be the one to do it? No. Not particularly. I don’t think we have the pieces to pull it off anyways. Nor do I think it is best to put all our chips in on a guy that has already been cast away. Like a kicker, golfer, pitcher, and batter, confidence is really important at this level.  He might say the right things, but reality is that a lot of people lost their jobs with last years’ failure in Arizona, including rosen, and that surely will weigh and compound on his mind if things don’t go well early here. 

Did I mention anything about a multiyear starter w/the draft? I thought I simply was listing what would classify as such from each class through '17. 

 

I have no idea about this class, but from afar it looks like one potential stud QB, 1 potential league average starter, and 1-2 long term backups w/a long shot, but a shot, at becoming a league average starter. It's why I'd play for the '20-'21 class unless we get Rosen. There's just no reason to aim for "league average starter or replacement level starter". 

[Skinsinparadise]

40 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Don't really care too much about his opinion other than sniffing out potential TE busts. But will say Warring does look interesting. When is he projected to go? I hadn't heard of him at all until this past month and normally I know all the playmaking prospects pretty early (just because of Dynasty Rookie Drafts). 

 

Depending on the mock, he typically is somewhere between the 3rd and 5th round. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[mistertim]

5 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Well written post, and it sounds like that should be correct, but if you dive into the analysis you’ll see that 0% of Grier’s highly rated throws were the kind of throws that are at the top for NFL QB’s. When you rely on numbers, but don’t know what a coach did to create them, you fall in love with things you can’t replicate in the NFL. 

 

 

What % of Murray's were? I'm not being a smart ass, I'm genuinely curious because they both played in Air Raid systems under coaches that came directly from the Mike Leach offensive tree. 

[mistertim]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

Except minus the 239 lb size, minus the 4.35 40, minus the 139 inch broad jump, minus the 42.5 inch vertical, and plus plenty of drops.

 

I'm curious what the context was that CJ was saying that in.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

Except minus the 239 lb size, minus the 4.35 40, minus the 139 inch broad jump, minus the 42.5 inch vertical, and plus plenty of drops.

 

I'm curious what the context was that CJ was saying that in.

 

Don't know.  I like Butler but clearly he's no megatron.  Found it interesting that he commented though on Butler.

 

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

I mean...Daniel Jones might be waiting awhile.

[The Consigliere]

4 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Played 2 sports in HS, moved a thousand miles from home after his mom died of cancer in 2012, redshirted, played a bit as a rs freshman, was honorable mention all conference as a rsoph, crushed as a rsjr. Seems easy enough to put together.

 

 

I don't think you're grasping my points:

#1: Early Breakout age is the most predictive metric available for WR's at the NFL.

#2 Butler's production in his age 19, age 20 seasons is non-existent and his age 21 production is bottom of the cohort level as well only rising to 7th out of 9 due to injuries that knocked out virtually all of Deebo's age 21 season and about half of DK Metcalf's. So again, my problem remains, why is he the only guy other than Marquise Brown, and Arcega-Whiteside that did literally nothing at age 19, and why did he produce significantly worse #'s, like much much worse than any of these guys in his age 20 season if he's so elite? Hopefully it doesn't matter, but the exceptions to the breakout age marker right now are exceptionally rare, about 10% of the top 30 WR's in the league are exceptions to the breakout age marker. Maybe he adds another to the list, but there are far more highly drafted WR's who had late breakout ages and busted then one's that succeeded. FAR MORE. 

 

 

Age 19 Season:

Hakeem Butler: 0 Receptions (redshirted, pretty rare for elite WR prospects to be red shirted as freshmen these days)

DK Metcalf: 2-13-2

AJ Brown: 29-412-2

N'Keal Harry: 58-659-8

D. Samuel 12-106-1

Isabella 2-7-0

Arcega-Whiteside: 0

M. Brown No Season

K. Harmon 27-462-5

 

Age 20 Season:

Butler: 9-134-2

Harry: 82-1142-8

Metcalf:39-646-7* (injured)

AJ Brown: 75-1252-11

Deebo Samuel: 59-783-1

Isabella 62-807-1

Arcega-Whiteside: 24-379-5

M. Brown 57-1095-7

K. Harmon 69-1017-4

 

Age 21 Season

Butler 41-697-7

Neal: 73-1088-9

Metcalf 26-569-5* (injured)

AJ Brown: 85-1320-6

Deebo Samuel: 15-250-3* (injured)

Isabella 65-1020-10

Arcega-Whiteside: 48-781-9

M. Brown 75-1318-10

K. Harmon: 81-1186-7

 

Note that Butler is last amongst these cohorts in age 19 production, last in age 20 production, and 7th out of 9 in age 21 production and that's only because Metcalf and Deebo were injured and missed a huge chunk of their age 21 seasons, if prorated on per game production, I imagine both or at least one of them would finish ahead of Butler.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Don't know.  I like Butler but clearly he's no megatron.  Found it interesting that he commented though on Butler.

 

 

I mean, I don't dislike Butler as a prospect but he's far from a Megatron from an athleticism standpoint (then again, Megatron is basically a once in a lifetime athlete...a true freak of nature) or from a pure WR standpoint. I've watched his cutups and he has some really nice attributes but his route running is shoddy and the drops really concern me. Usually guys who have the dropsies in college continue to have the dropsies in the NFL.

[mhd24]

Another Mock (if we want Hock to fall)

1)  Cards-Murray

2)  49ers-Bosa

3)  Jets-Allen (Want to trade down for sure.  My money is on the Bills trading up for Q. Williams)

4)  Oakland-Q. Williams

5)  TB-White

6)  Giants-Gary

7)  Jags-Taylor

8-Lions-Sweat (Pass rusher opposite Flowers)

9)  Bills-Oliver

10)  Denver-Lock

11)  Bengals-Haskins

12)  GB-Bush 

13)  Miami-Wilkins

14)  Atlanta-Williams

15)  Redskins-Hockenson

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Depending on the mock, he typically is somewhere between the 3rd and 5th round. 

 

The he should absolutely be a target w/our 3rds.

 

from player profiler:

 

Speed Score 83rd Percentile

Burst Score: 84th Percentile

Agility Score: 66th Percentile

Dominator (Market Share): 60th Percentile

Breakout Age: 71st Percentile

SPARQ-x: 77th Percentile