2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[PlayAction]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim is typically plugged in so I take this as a heavy hint its unlikely they go O line in round 1

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/38325/jay-gruden-redskins-must-win-now-need-impact-from-top-pick

 

Offensive line: It's hard to imagine Washington going this direction with the first-round pick. The Redskins do need line depth after enduring two consecutive years of heavy injuries along the front. They also could use more competition at left guard, where they hope Ereck Flowers can become a quality player there after transitioning from tackle. But it's not a spot they must address in the first round, not with a need -- and the ability -- to add a playmaker on either side of the ball.

 

Flowers at Guard is nothing more than hope at this point.  But, yes they may not think of Guard as an absolute need going into the draft.  Sometimes a quality player falls into your lap though so who knows?  If Flowers turns out to be good at Guard then the Skins would at least have a starter and upgraded depth.  After all of the injuries the last two years I wouldn't mind if the Skins go OL in the first round.  What if they can't extend Scherff?  Immediate need and near term planning support devoting some draft pick(s) to the OL if there's appropriate value.  

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, PlayAction said:

 

Flowers at Guard is nothing more than hope at this point.  But, yes they may not think of Guard as an absolute need going into the draft.  Sometimes a quality player falls into your lap though so who knows?  If Flowers turns out to be good at Guard then the Skins would at least have a starter and upgraded depth.  After all of the injuries the last two years I wouldn't mind if the Skins go OL in the first round.  What if they can't extend Scherff?  Immediate need and near term planning support devoting some draft pick(s) to the OL if there's appropriate value.  

 

I am ok with going guard and have been pushing some guards on this thread.  My point though is knowing Keim's style some if he says they are unlikely to go OG in round 1 -- I am guessing he heard that from someone within the FO.  

 

Cooley has been from what I recall 100% on the money when it comes to which FAs they sign who will fail.  He's seems very confident Flowers will fail at OG.  His film review more or less is he does very little right and it won't matter if he plays at OG or OT, he's likely going to be bad.   He plays too high, often doesn't even squarely look at who he's blocking, had terrible hands, is stiff -- on and on.  I guess will see. 

 

 

 

Switching gears, I've seen the Kelly-Doctson thing multiple times.  To me what's interesting about that is I heard different beat guys say they heard Sean McVay in particular was the guy pounding the table for Doctson.

 

 

 

Revenge at Volsmet for the posting about Daniel Jones.  Look at this...Grier😀

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Interesting as for below about Haskins.  My prediction right now on QB -- they won't use a first rounder on one.  And that's cool with me.   And my guess is Rosen, Grier, or Finley.

 

They've spent a good amount of time on Grier so I gather they must have some interest.   I saw on twitter the next meeting will add up to the 4th one with Grier.  No way IMO they are just doing that for smoke screen reasons.  That's a lot of time to spend on one prospect.  It doesn't mean they take him but IMO you don't spend that much time with a prospect if you aren't at least intrigued.   

 

And I am not one of the Grier haters on this thread so its all fine with me. 😀  Grier and Jones I am guessing are among the two most polarizing prospects among draft geek types and heck even on this thread -- those that don't like either player really really don't like them.  I've made my point about Jones -- I don't like him as a prospect.  I don't love Grier but I don't hate him either.  He has enough game IMO where if Jay and or Kyle thinks he has the goods -- I'd go on that ride.  There are things I like in the soup about Grier.    During the college season I watched Grier and Murray the most among the college QBs.

 

Weeks back I was worried they'd take Jones.  I am still a little worried.  But I am thinking Grier might be a bigger possibility as for being in play than Jones. 

 

 

 

 

 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Interesting as for below about Haskins.  My prediction right now on QB -- they won't use a first rounder on one.  And that's cool with me.   And my guess is Rosen, Grier, or Finley.

 

They've spent a good amount of time on Grier so I gather they must have some interest.   I saw on twitter the next meeting will add up to the 4th one with Grier.  No way IMO they are just doing that for smoke screen reasons.  That's a lot of time to spend on one prospect.  It doesn't mean they take him but IMO you don't spend that much time with a prospect if you aren't at least intrigued.   

 

And I am not one of the Grier haters on this thread so its all fine with me. 😀  Grier and Jones I am guessing are among the two most polarizing prospects among draft geek types and heck even on this thread -- those that don't like either player really really don't like them.  I've made my point about Jones -- I don't like him as a prospect.  I don't love Grier but I don't hate him either.  He has enough game IMO where if Jay and or Kyle thinks he has the goods -- I'd go on that ride.  There are things I like in the soup about Grier.    During the college season I watched Grier and Murray the most among the college QBs.

 

Weeks back I was worried they'd take Jones.  I am still a little worried.  But I am thinking Grier might be a bigger possibility as for being in play than Jones. 

SIP, I've watched most all of the WVU games as I live in WV.  When Grier is hot he's hot but he has spells where he's cold as ice.  One other big issues is he takes ALOT of sacks rather than throwing the ball away.  He and Sills were the heart and soul of the OF.

[The Consigliere]

On 3/25/2019 at 6:53 PM, Skin'emAlive said:

The last qb we drafted in the 4th* round ended up A franchise player. 

 

This would be a worthwhile argument if it wasn't simply a single anecdotal piece amidst a gigantic manure pile of "bust" (in as much as you can be a bust as a day 3 QB selection) QB. 

 

The hits since 2000:

2000: 2 out of 8 (Tom Brady and Marc Bulgar)

2001: 0 for 7 (AJ Feeley might make it 1 for 7)

2002: 1 for 11 (David Garrard)

2003: 0 for 7

2004: 0 for 12

2005: 1 for 7*: (Kyle Orton, The potential hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Casell, Derek Anderson: None became franchise QB's or full time starters, but four of them did have at least a half dozen or more starts in their careers.

2006: 0 for 4

2007: 0 for 4

2008: 0 for 8 (like '05, this class did produce Josh Johnson, and Matt Flynn, two guys who collected a solid pile of starts, but were never long term starting QB's)

2009: 0 for 7

2010: 0 for 10

2011: 1 for 5 (Tyrod Taylor)

2012: 1 for 4 (Kirk Cousins)

2013: 0 FOR 8

2014: 0 FOR 9 (Tom Savage)

2015: 0 for 3 (Trevor Siemian)

2016: 1 for 9 (Dak Prescott (I have always held a special place in my heart for Driskell but I'm fooling myself if I think the scant evidence available is convincing)

I'll make the cut off '16 since the '17 busts still have time to turn it around, kinda.

 

2017: 0 for 4 (Dobbs, Peterman, Kayaa, and Kelly if you still think any have a chance)

2018: Too early 

 

 

From 2000 to 2016:

3 Franchise QB's, 3 long term starters and 1 Tyrod Taylor for 7 hits out of 123 day 3 selections (Tom Brady, Marc Bulgar, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins and Das Prescott): 

Long term starter plus hit rate: 4.87%

Adding Tyrod Taylor: 5.69%

 

I've mentioned all the guys that didn't quite measure up to the above, I don't consider guys like Savage, Siemian, Matt Flynn, Josh Johnson, Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, and Matt Cassell as fitting w/the above group because none of them were chosen as multi-year starters for the same squad long term, at best they got a partial or full term gig once and then spot starts here and there. If you want to add them to the hit rate you could, but I think it would give you pause if you consider that the post that generated this response was concerning Cousins, a guy whose been a full time starter for going on four straight seasons at this point, and none of those guys fit anything close to that career arc. 

 

Takes time to trot this kind of thing out, but I think it's worth repeating for people that think that hitting on a long term starter at QB on day 3 isn't all that rare compared to other positions, or any other analogous take. This should put the nail in the idea of using draft capital on guys on day 3, and if it doesn't, it should at least drive the nail in on any and every QB prospect other than possibly one w/a really impressive background as a full time starter in college w/some accomplishments to his name (Brady beat Alabama in a thrilling comeback in his last game for the blue and gold, and spent much of his career behind the only QB to lead Michigan to a national title in my lifetime, and dueling with dual sport superstar prospect Drew Henson which is a huge region why people didn't get how talented he was, Cousins was always a good QB at Michigan State, if not a great one, and showed all the tools, if not the consistency that you wanted, Bulgar had an excellent college career. Orton was basically a career backup talent forced to start because his teams had nothing at QB, and was consistently dumped the second they had something competent (ditto Tyrod Taylor), Garrard and Prescott have both been league average level starters at best during their respective careers, nothing special, but solid. 

 

But, again, the key here is that if you were looking for legit long term starters, between 2001-20016 only 4 players hit out of 123, 119 missing. Additionally there were only a handful of years w/QB's in the class worth remotely looking at in retrospect after the modern day version of day 2 of the draft:

2000

2005

2012

2016

 

Otherwise, the best you could hope for was a placeholder QB who wouldn't lead you anywhere, but could tide you over until you found someone halfway decent.

 

In other words, wasting day 3 draft capital on a QB is nearly always just that, wasting draft capital. Essentially, 95% of the time you take a QB on day 3, you'd be better served simply playing pin the tail on the offensive line prospect, blindfolded, of course. 

 

 

 

 

 

[volsmet]

4 hours ago, RWJ said:

SIP, I've watched most all of the WVU games as I live in WV.  When Grier is hot he's hot but he has spells where he's cold as ice.  One other big issues is he takes ALOT of sacks rather than throwing the ball away.  He and Sills were the heart and soul of the OF.

 

Grier is trash, not even a prospect.

 

[actorguy1]

4 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Grier is trash, not even a prospect.

 

Will Grier is on people's radar if you only look at stats and not game tape. YPA of 9.0, average depth of target 10.2 yards, QBR score of 78, 65.7 completion percentage. That's the only reason. 

[Skin'emAlive]

Quote

 

In other words, wasting day 3 draft capital on a QB is nearly always just that, wasting draft capital. Essentially, 95% of the time you take a QB on day 3, you'd be better served simply playing pin the tail on the offensive line prospect, blindfolded, of course. 

 

A day 3 quarterback in this draft very well could be a starter. Every draft produces up to 3 starting quarterbacks ( and never really more than that.) Kyler, Haskins, and then... it’s a toss up after that. Jones, Lock, Grier are all part of that gray area that could be backup, starter, or bust. I personally think team fit and pieces are the deciding factor here on those 3. After that, you are really taking a shot in the dark with guys like Minshew, Jackson, and others. 

[DWinzit]

If you are taking a day 3 QB you are not only hoping they can become a starter quality but has the attributes to be a reliable backup.

I can't wait until there are 2 QB's that will be viewed as better than Colt. His arm strength will never be able to put the Skins in the win column for more than a game or two.

[bakedtater1]

The skins will hit a home run...trade for Rosen giving up a second this year and a third in 2020..get a QB than bpa at 15 this year .. hopefully the best wr available.

[RWJ]

32 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

The skins will hit a home run...trade for Rosen giving up a second this year and a third in 2020..get a QB than bpa at 15 this year .. hopefully the best wr available.

I'd like to see a trade down then select a OG.

[Ghedrick]

If we can add Rosen for 2nd and third next year I am all for it.If we can manage that I would like to trade back from 15 recoup some draft capitial.Later in the first found we should still have a shot at DK or Hollywood to add some much need big play ability.The oline is ok for now if we can grab a guard to develop in rounds 3-7 we will be fine.We are not in shape to add a first round guard and with the money given to Ereck he is going to an opperunity to start.The hope is Christian develops at tackle into a solid back up and to find a guard to develop with a mid to late round pick. I hope the scouting department is able to find another Roullier later in the draft.With are picks in rounds 1-3 the focus needs to be on finding playmakers on offense . 

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

 

 

If Dwayne is available and the Skins pass.... 😫

[RabidFan]

I think a 2nd pick is plenty for Rosen, we don't need to add any picks from next year.  He's not a can't miss prospect so don't break the bank with so many holes.  Plus he seems like an overconfident dbag.  Nothing wrong with confidence if your talent supports it.   I've said before that I think Lock an Grier have the moxie for being a leader of men out there an hoping to elevate others around them.

 

I'd prefer elite Edge, TE, or OL at #15 or trade back and get OL or TE in first and get an extra pick as we have several holes to fill:  ILB, EDGE, WRs, OG, CB, S, ....sheesh

[The Consigliere]

On 3/26/2019 at 6:39 AM, bakedtater1 said:

One dude has us pegged to take Metcalf..that would be amazing!..he seems to be an athletic freak

 

He's not. He's incredibly ripped, and very fast, explosive burst, but bottom of the ladder agility. Helps to explain why he only really ran 2 routes at Ole Miss. He's a straight pass for me. Like AJ Brown better, even if he's a touch redundant. 

[SkinsRx]

9 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

From 2000 to 2016:

3 Franchise QB's, 3 long term starters and 1 Tyrod Taylor for 7 hits out of 123 day 3 selections (Tom Brady, Marc Bulgar, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins and Das Prescott): 

Long term starter plus hit rate: 4.87%

Adding Tyrod Taylor: 5.69% 

 

I'd imagine these percentages become much more favorable if 1) you have a good/great head coach and 2) if you have a good/great team in place.  That's why I'm pounding the table for the Skins to pass on a QB this year (unless we can get Rosen for a good price) and draft key players to improve most if not all the weak areas on our team.  We can get thru next season with Keenum, McCoy, and Josh Johnson and then draft a QB next year when we will have (hopeful) a more complete team.

 

If Tom Brady was drafted by the Skins in 2000, I don't think he's the same Tom Brady we know today.  Likewise, how many of the QBs drafted by the Skins would have become franchise QBs if the Patriots drafted them in 2000?  If I had to guess, I'd say probably most of them.

[mistertim]

9 hours ago, volsmet said:

 

Grier is trash, not even a prospect.

 

 

NFL teams seem to disagree. He has a bunch of visits/workouts scheduled. I know there are many sports pundits who see him as a 2nd-3rd round pick but from what I've read actual NFL scouts and GMs think more highly of him. 

 

2 hours ago, RWJ said:

I'd like to see a trade down then select a OG.

 

That's a pretty poor value unless you're talking about a generational talent at OG, especially considering all the talent in this draft at positions of need like Edge. I see no reason to take a G that high when you can find very good ones later in the draft. 

 

2 hours ago, BRAVEONAWARPATH said:

 

 

If Dwayne is available and the Skins pass.... 😫

 

If the Skins trade for Rosen and Haskins fall to us then it could be awesome because we could potentially get a haul if someone desperately wanted to trade up to get him. If we don't trade for Rosen and Haskins falls to us I doubt we'd pass.

 

44 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

He's not. He's incredibly ripped, and very fast, explosive burst, but bottom of the ladder agility. Helps to explain why he only really ran 2 routes at Ole Miss. He's a straight pass for me. Like AJ Brown better, even if he's a touch redundant. 

 

Agreed. Meltcalf is very fast and ripped but he has the agility numbers of a rock rolling down a hill. When watching his tape I also noticed that he ran about 3 routes but I was curious whether that was just the system or whether the coaches realized that all he could really do is run in a straight line and then just told him to do that every play. I'd take Harry way before taking Metcalf. Butler is intriguing because of his size but I'm not sold. Both Metcalf and Butler also had some serious issues with drops and losing focus on easy passes.

[bakedtater1]

3 hours ago, RWJ said:

I'd like to see a trade down then select a OG.

Starting to sound like a broken record here... I am that is... If wishes were fishes..

1 hour ago, The Consigliere said:

 

He's not. He's incredibly ripped, and very fast, explosive burst, but bottom of the ladder agility. Helps to explain why he only really ran 2 routes at Ole Miss. He's a straight pass for me. Like AJ Brown better, even if he's a touch redundant. 

I appreciate this man..I've been seeing a lot of the same kind of post I guess or similar type stuff and I think even some videos I've watched about Metcalf.. yeah I'll definitely pass on his freakish athletic ability if he's not able to run routes.. if you're talking about that AJ Brown from Oklahoma is that correct? Either way I want that receiver from Oklahoma.. more and more I'm reading about Metcalf more and more I hope we don't get him.. then of course it will bite me in the ass and he will go to the cowgirls and he'll ball out lol

[The Consigliere]

On 3/29/2019 at 7:27 AM, Anselmheifer said:

Robert Davis wasn't super productive in HS or college and hasn't had a breakout year in a pro. IMHO, what makes Metcalf special is his insane 10 yard split and his hand use, in combination with his size. He does have a chance to be a Davis Boston. I think Metcalf is clearly better than Robert Davis. Ask Alabama. That being said, DK could also be a bust. 

 

I am not in favor of drafting DK at 15. I'd rather have Hockenson, Oliver, Burns, Greedy Williams or Byron Murphy, Devin White, Marquise Brown, or Hakeem Butler. Butler is under rated. He is 6'5" with 35.25 inch arms. He's tall and long, for an offensive tackle, and ran a 4.48. In the right situation, he could be a monster. 

 

 

53rd percentile dominator in college says he was productive, and 93rd percentile breakout age for college is ideal. Lack of NFL production is totally explicable considering draft capital invested (he's actually a hit in the fact that he made the team at all), and the fact that he missed all of '18 due to injury. I don't think he's Metcalf's equal as a prospect, but he does bring a similar set of traits, although Davis is a touch less explosive, while being significantly more agile. Metcalf is straight line fast, and explosive but he's also a HUGE risk because of his injury history and his lack of agility and experience running many routes at all. Firm pass from me, like about five or six WR's more than him, especially at their cost in terms of draft capital. 

[skinny21]

26 minutes ago, bakedtater1 said:

Starting to sound like a broken record here... I am that is... If wishes were fishes..

I appreciate this man..I've been seeing a lot of the same kind of post I guess or similar type stuff and I think even some videos I've watched about Metcalf.. yeah I'll definitely pass on his freakish athletic ability if he's not able to run routes.. if you're talking about that AJ Brown from Oklahoma is that correct? Either way I want that receiver from Oklahoma.. more and more I'm reading about Metcalf more and more I hope we don't get him.. then of course it will bite me in the ass and he will go to the cowgirls and he'll ball out lol

Marquis Brown is the Oklahoma receiver you’re thinking of.  AJ Brown is Metcalf’s teammate.  

M. Brown is super intriguing for this team as we could really stand to add that speed/big play ability.  I think the Skins would prefer going with a guy like Harry though that can take over for Doctson at split end and can also have a positive impact on the ground game.  I should say more of a positive impact because M. Brown probably stretches the field more than someone like Harry, but we already seen DJax in that role...

 

@The Consigliere I can see why you’d call AJ Brown redundant, but I’m not sure that’s the case - he can play slot and flanker and both of our guys there have injury issues.  I’d prefer a dominant X, but AJ’s versatility still strengthens the receiving corp (more than a pure slot or flanker would at the least).  He might need a bit of time, but I’d guess he’d start over Quinn and Richardson by year 2.  

 

Edit:  agree with you on Metcalf - I like the prospect, just not the value/risk.  

[The Consigliere]

On 3/29/2019 at 2:12 PM, HigSkin said:

 

 

At this point I'm not at all happy w/the way it appears the draft board will play out, and AJ Brown is my favorite trade down target. I find it hard to imagine he'll bust like so many WR's before him. The entire profile is ideal. Harry has press coverage issues, Metcalf is a two route guy, Butler is a late breakout guy. Brown is the one guy who has the breakout age, the production markers, and the athleticism. 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Who knows if true but Henson said earlier today he had a scoop that he was holding onto.  Not sure if he is being serious or sarcastic here. 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

I like Grier (though I’m ridiculously far from a qb expert), but Allen loving Haskins and Grier (in particular) raises the concern for me that he could be looking at marketing first and foremost.  Perhaps a bit uncharitable of me, but...

[Brixtion_skin]

14 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

 

This would be a worthwhile argument if it wasn't simply a single anecdotal piece amidst a gigantic manure pile of "bust" (in as much as you can be a bust as a day 3 QB selection) QB. 

 

The hits since 2000:

2000: 2 out of 8 (Tom Brady and Marc Bulgar)

2001: 0 for 7 (AJ Feeley might make it 1 for 7)

2002: 1 for 11 (David Garrard)

2003: 0 for 7

2004: 0 for 12

2005: 1 for 7*: (Kyle Orton, The potential hits: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Matt Casell, Derek Anderson: None became franchise QB's or full time starters, but four of them did have at least a half dozen or more starts in their careers.

2006: 0 for 4

2007: 0 for 4

2008: 0 for 8 (like '05, this class did produce Josh Johnson, and Matt Flynn, two guys who collected a solid pile of starts, but were never long term starting QB's)

2009: 0 for 7

2010: 0 for 10

2011: 1 for 5 (Tyrod Taylor)

2012: 1 for 4 (Kirk Cousins)

2013: 0 FOR 8

2014: 0 FOR 9 (Tom Savage)

2015: 0 for 3 (Trevor Siemian)

2016: 1 for 9 (Dak Prescott (I have always held a special place in my heart for Driskell but I'm fooling myself if I think the scant evidence available is convincing)

I'll make the cut off '16 since the '17 busts still have time to turn it around, kinda.

 

2017: 0 for 4 (Dobbs, Peterman, Kayaa, and Kelly if you still think any have a chance)

2018: Too early 

 

 

From 2000 to 2016:

3 Franchise QB's, 3 long term starters and 1 Tyrod Taylor for 7 hits out of 123 day 3 selections (Tom Brady, Marc Bulgar, Kyle Orton, David Garrard, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins and Das Prescott): 

Long term starter plus hit rate: 4.87%

Adding Tyrod Taylor: 5.69%

 

I've mentioned all the guys that didn't quite measure up to the above, I don't consider guys like Savage, Siemian, Matt Flynn, Josh Johnson, Fitzpatrick, Derek Anderson, and Matt Cassell as fitting w/the above group because none of them were chosen as multi-year starters for the same squad long term, at best they got a partial or full term gig once and then spot starts here and there. If you want to add them to the hit rate you could, but I think it would give you pause if you consider that the post that generated this response was concerning Cousins, a guy whose been a full time starter for going on four straight seasons at this point, and none of those guys fit anything close to that career arc. 

 

Takes time to trot this kind of thing out, but I think it's worth repeating for people that think that hitting on a long term starter at QB on day 3 isn't all that rare compared to other positions, or any other analogous take. This should put the nail in the idea of using draft capital on guys on day 3, and if it doesn't, it should at least drive the nail in on any and every QB prospect other than possibly one w/a really impressive background as a full time starter in college w/some accomplishments to his name (Brady beat Alabama in a thrilling comeback in his last game for the blue and gold, and spent much of his career behind the only QB to lead Michigan to a national title in my lifetime, and dueling with dual sport superstar prospect Drew Henson which is a huge region why people didn't get how talented he was, Cousins was always a good QB at Michigan State, if not a great one, and showed all the tools, if not the consistency that you wanted, Bulgar had an excellent college career. Orton was basically a career backup talent forced to start because his teams had nothing at QB, and was consistently dumped the second they had something competent (ditto Tyrod Taylor), Garrard and Prescott have both been league average level starters at best during their respective careers, nothing special, but solid. 

 

But, again, the key here is that if you were looking for legit long term starters, between 2001-20016 only 4 players hit out of 123, 119 missing. Additionally there were only a handful of years w/QB's in the class worth remotely looking at in retrospect after the modern day version of day 2 of the draft:

2000

2005

2012

2016

 

Otherwise, the best you could hope for was a placeholder QB who wouldn't lead you anywhere, but could tide you over until you found someone halfway decent.

 

In other words, wasting day 3 draft capital on a QB is nearly always just that, wasting draft capital. Essentially, 95% of the time you take a QB on day 3, you'd be better served simply playing pin the tail on the offensive line prospect, blindfolded, of course.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

Where is Russell Wilson?

[Est.1974]

If we've traded for Rosen, almost no chance we stay at #15, we would be trading back to add a couple of picks. 

 

I also think a trade for Rosen would not prevent us drafting another QB as well. ...with Rosen on board then both Keenum and McCoy simply aren't sticking around, one probably would but not both, wouldn't make sense.