2019 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

If people like Football Outsiders QBASE projections, here we go:

 

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2019/qbase-2019

 

TL;DR, this QB group is odd.

 

Those stats doesn't buck up any of the QBs in this draft.

 

On another note, I listened to Cooley's film review of Metcalf.   Cliff notes version of it:

 

Positives: Can run by anyone, makes acrobatic catches, can be physical when he wants to be.

 

Negatives:  Not a polished route runner -- basically runs 4 routes.  Wasn't their go to guy on key downs.  He's a lazy-poor run blocker.  For a big dude he can oddly be successfully pressed by good corners.  Raw.

 

Cooley doesn't see him as a #1.  He thinks he can develop into a #1 but for now he wouldn't take him in the first round.  He thinks he's too limited route tree wise to hit the ground running.  He was more impressed with AJ Brown albeit he didn't go into detail about that aside from saying that Brown is clutch, feisty, good run blocker. 

 

I just also listened to Finlay's podcast.  He thinks that QB is definitely on the table in round 1 but he thinks it depends on the flow of the draft.  Rosen still in play, too.  He thinks they take Hockenson (which I'd love) if he fell to their pick.   Finlay (as I've among others have talked about on this thread about, too) talked about how the one dimensional TEs on this team is too much of a tell for opposing defenses citing how Jay mentioned that as a concern with this offense going forward.

 

 

 

If they like Hockenson but he goes before their pick.  This would be my guy in the 2nd.  I've explained why many times. I think he will be a stud.

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/6-pack-thursday--marino-s-final-2019-tight-end-rankings-and-takeaways

JACE STERNBERGER’S CEILING

After two seasons in Kansas where he inexplicably caught a total of one pass for five yards, Sternberger turned to the JUCO ranks before landing with the Aggies where he put together a sensational season.

Sternberger has immense upside as a receiver in the NFL. His route running skills, ability to create after the catch, athleticism and ball skills afford him the ability to attack all three levels of the field with potent playmaking upside. He is dominant when attacking the seam and has an uncanny ability to win on out breaking routes.

He is a highly versatile receiving threat that should be a productive NFL starter that presents considerable matchup problems for opponents.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Cooley doesn't see him as a #1.  He thinks he can develop into a #1 but for now he wouldn't take him in the first round.  He thinks he's too limited route tree wise to hit the ground running.  He was more impressed with AJ Brown albeit he didn't go into detail about that aside from saying that Brown is clutch, feisty, good run blocker.

 

I feel like Cooley would list fewer guys as Round 1 caliber in the average draft than most draft analysts would.  He's big on Day 1 starter to be a 1st rounder.

 

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I just also listened to Finlay's podcast.  He thinks that QB is definitely on the table in round 1 but he thinks it depends on the flow of the draft.  Rosen still in play, too.  He thinks they take Hockenson (which I'd love) if he fell to their pick.   Finlay (as I've among others have talked about on this thread about, too) talked about how the one dimensional TEs on this team is too much of a tell for opposing defenses citing how Jay mentioned that as a concern with this offense going forward.

 

Aha, finally.  The coaching staff and front office have figured out that the league notices trends between playcalling and personnel.

 

From that, I've got only 4 TE's in this draft that fit Jay's criteria.  Hockenson, Fant, Irv Smith, and Warring.  Sternberger is like a mix between Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, in that you'll see a lot of whiffed blocks.  Maybe he gets better at blocking, but with how he gets juked at times, I don't think so.

 

Question is, where do those TE's go.  Recent rumors suggest both Hockenson and Fant are gone by #15.  Irv Smith probably doesn't last to #46.  Where does Warring land?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

6 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I feel like Cooley would list fewer guys as Round 1 caliber in the average draft than most draft analysts would.  He's big on Day 1 starter to be a 1st rounder.

 

 

Aha, finally.  The coaching staff and front office have figured out that the league notices trends between playcalling and personnel.

 

From that, I've got only 4 TE's in this draft that fit Jay's criteria.  Hockenson, Fant, Irv Smith, and Warring.  Sternberger is like a mix between Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, in that you'll see a lot of whiffed blocks.  Maybe he gets better at blocking, but with how he gets juked at times, I don't think so.

 

Question is, where do those TE's go.  Recent rumors suggest both Hockenson and Fant are gone by #15.  Irv Smith probably doesn't last to #46.  Where does Warring land?

Warring is a late late 2nd to mid 3rd round guy if you believe Matt Miller.

 

I've been listening a lot to Matt Miller's podcasts and he's high on Warring. They also like Foster Moreau as a perfect #2 TE who could go in R3, and they like Trevon Wesco from WVU as a great HBack who can block. I also like the idea of Kaden Smith. I think he's a R-So so he's pretty raw, but the Stanford coaches have said he's furhter along than Zach Ertz was at this point at Stanford, so I like the idea of Smith in the 3rd or 4th round as someone who doesn't immediately have to come in and start, but could be the long-term replacement to JReed in Year 2 or 3 of his career.

[Anselmheifer]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd rather not take a QB at 15 period or trade for Rosen if its that pick.  I was just doing the math on this and to me this draft looks very likely to be one where we get a surprise fall like .Jonathan Allen in 2017 and Derwin James  in 2018.  I am starting to see Devin Bush some go top 14 (supposedly the Lions, Denver among others really like him) and TJ Hockenson. 

Who do you think could be the one to fall? I know it's unpredictable. If it is based on merit, it would be Rashan Gary(look like Tarzan, play like Jane) or Montez Sweat. I know that Sweat ran a 4.41 at the combine, but he doesn't play nearly that fast and I think he isn't worth a top 10 pick. He is a long and rangy, effort based pass rusher. He's stiff. You almost never see him win his matchup off the snap with speed or quickness. Watch the video of Sweat and Burns that I'm going to post below and tell me that Sweat is faster. He isn't nearly as fast or quick on the field, and he is 22yo vs Burns' 20 years. I'd take Burns over Sweat, for the Skins, in an instant. 

Regarding Bush, I don't think he deserves top 10 consideration and I wouldn't love him at 15. He just wasn't that productive. Bush's total tackles and TFL are not nearly as good as White's. Instincts and physicality > speed at ILB. We've seen a ton of super fast ILB prospects underperform in the NFL. Not that coverage skills aren't important, but you have to have the instincts for the position. I'm not sure that's Devin Bush. I'd rather have Germaine Pratt in the 3rd or 4th than Devin Bush at 15. 

 

 

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Throwing out an idea here. Skins may not be able to get Rosen for #46. Would love it if we could. But the Giants may be interested in sending their 2nd (#37) for Rosen. We have to beat #37 but don't necessarily want to give up #15. Using the Chargers #28 in the 1st round as a "fair" and "high point" of what the Cards could realistically get for Rosen (I don't see NYG sending #17) ... I thought it would be interesting to run a mock draft on FanSpeak with the assumption that we do this trade.

 

Redskins get: QB Josh Rosen, Pick 3.1 (#65)

Cardinals get: Pick 1.15 (#15)

 

This would place the value of Rosen in this trade at Pick #24, per the newly adjusted draft value chart on Drafttek.

 

I think I would make this trade. It isn't as good IMO as, say, trading them #46 and then using #15 to trade back into the 1st to get a 2nd or 3rd, but it's not as bad as parting with #15.

 

You get your franchise QB and still manage to pick 4 times on Day 2.

 

2.14: Parris Campbell, WR OSU

3.1: Chris Lidstrom, G BC

3.12: Christian Miller, Edge Alabama

3.32: Kaden Smith, TE Stanford

 

I would then spend 5/5/7 on defense.

 

@Anselmheifer Brian Burns or Montez Sweat but I honestly think those 2 guys aren't "falls" because they should go in that 10-15 range.

 

Ed Oliver would be the "fall" I could envision. He's a Top 5 talent that we could get at 15. The problem, however; is that while that would be a BPA move, it would be the 5th quality DL-man, plus not an ideal fit for our defense. MAYBE you say you're drafting him to replace Ionnidis long-term. But after going DL in 2017 and 2018 I really can't see us going DL even if it's a major faller and BPA, for a 3rd consecutive year given our other holes.

 

Hockenson MIGHT be the "faller" ... he and Fant are game-changers. IF we don't use #15 as part of a package for Rosen, I would love Hockenson, but I would also love to trade #15 to the Patriots so they can come get their Gronk replacement, and get #32 and 2 of their 2nd or 3rd rounders that they seem to have a bevy of.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I was just doing the math on this and to me this draft looks very likely to be one where we get a surprise fall like .Jonathan Allen in 2017 and Derwin James  in 2018.  I am starting to see Devin Bush some go top 14 (supposedly the Lions, Denver among others really like him) and TJ Hockenson. 

 

The odds that either Burns or Ferrell or maybe even both land at 15 might be good.    I personally think its folly to go for a boom-bust QB at 15 when you can potentially get a bonafide stud pass rusher.  Also if they want to accrue picks they'd really need the first rounder to do so.  If their first pick is in the mid second, you are already getting too far down to have a pick with that much value for a decent trade down.   Granted if Jay and or Kyle don't see the QBs as boom-bust then pull the trigger considering the value of the position.

 

So given recent rumors, I think there's one thing we can count on for sure that'll be available at #15:

 

1) Starting caliber LG

2) Whatever safety we want

3) Talented IDL (but we're loaded there)

4) Whatever RB we want (but we're loaded there)

 

Then good odds for:

1) One of (if not both somehow) the last two upper tier Edge guys, Brian Burns or Clelin Ferrell

2) Whatever CB we want (although none are enticing at #15)

3) Whatever WR we want

 

OK odds for:

1) Either Hockenson or Fant being there

1) Either of the two Devin ILB's being there

 

Bad odds for:

1) One of the top 3 QB's lasting to #15

[JamesMadisonSkins]

3 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

So given recent rumors, I think there's one thing we can count on for sure that'll be available at #15:

OK odds for:

1) Either Hockenson or Fant being there

1) Either of the two Devin ILB's being there

I'd go below "OK" on this. I think Devin White is gone early. Matt Miller is convinced the Raiders will go Quinnen or Devin White at 4 and whoever doesn't go 4 will go 5 to TB.

He then thinks Devin Bush as the far away #2 ILB will be gone at 8 and no later than 11 to CIncy.

[Skinsinparadise]

45 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

I feel like Cooley would list fewer guys as Round 1 caliber in the average draft than most draft analysts would.  He's big on Day 1 starter to be a 1st rounder.

 

 

I think that's part of it.  The other part of it I think you can read between the lines that what he is trying to do is say I think the dude will be a bust or won't be anything special but I want to cover my tracks some by giving a disclaimer in case they do work out.  For example, listening to his take on Metcalf, it came off clear to me that he doesn't like him as a prospect. 

 

45 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

 

From that, I've got only 4 TE's in this draft that fit Jay's criteria.  Hockenson, Fant, Irv Smith, and Warring.  Sternberger is like a mix between Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis, in that you'll see a lot of whiffed blocks.  Maybe he gets better at blocking, but with how he gets juked at times, I don't think so.

 

 

I disagree on Sternberger. Combination of Reed and Davis?  That's like a Frankenstein concoction of the worst TE blocker in the NFL.  😁   I think Cooley would be the better comparison to Sternberger.    He doesn't have elite athleticism but the dude gets open and if I recall led all TEs in YAC.  And as blocker he's OK/average IMO. 

 

As a blocker, I'd compare him to Fant.  Fant also IMO is OK and a willing blocker but nothing special in that department.  I prefer Fant to Sternberger because of his athleticism.  As for Irv Smith, I am not sure.  It's close to me between him and Sternberger.

 

I got into it in detail weeks ago on Sternberger including posting my own clips and don't feel like repeating it all.  But in short, my take is he is a willing blocker.  Sometimes even a good blocker especially in the run game.  The willing part to me is key.  Cooley ironically has explained this point some is the #1 thing you need is will-attitude if the goal is to improve as a blocker.   Reed and Davis IMO (and I've shown clips of them attempting to block for another reason last year) often aren't willing blockers.   With Sternberger, you can find some really killer blocks in the mix of his games.  It's pretty rare for me to think wow look at Jordan or Vernon just flatten a defender to help spring such and such loose. 

 

If I've not been the #1 cheerleader for Hockenson, I'd have to be at least top 3 on this thread.  😀 He's been my top desire at 15 for months now.  So am not comparing Sternberger to Hockenson.  But Hockenson whiffs on blocks, too.  Cooley got into a lot in his film review.  Cooley wasn't as high on Hockenson as some of us here but he did like him.   Hockenson to me is the ultimate Y TE and he's the dude by a mile that I want at TE.  But lets say they draft Sternberger in the 3rd round -- IMO he'd instantly be their best blocking TE aside from Sprinkle.   More importantly, I don't think putting Sternberger in the game would telegraph a pass, the dude can run block.  He's no Hockenson.  But IMO no way he's a mix of Reed-Davis as a blocker either. 

 

I don't agree with the reports below that the dude is a killer good run blocker.  But I am just making the point there are others like me who are totally fine with his run blocking.   Personally, I think he's average as a blocker.   He can get pushed back by O lineman and whiff on some blocks.   But I also saw some really nice blocks on plays.  He's inconsistent.  But I think he can keep getting better because he at least comes off as a feisty and willing blocker.   He's the same way running in open field -- that's the one thing he has in common with Hockenson -- that is, he will just bulldoze defenders in the open field when he has the ball in his hands. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

56 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

Who do you think could be the one to fall? I know it's unpredictable. If it is based on merit, it would be Rashan Gary

 

 

Running with mocks and listening to mock podcasts from insiders with the disclaimer that some of those people were likely purposely given some misinformation:

 

List 1:  Going for sure before 15

Murray

Bosa

Q. Williams

D. White (that's a change from earlier this year)

J. Allen

 

List 2:  Very likely going before 15

Haskins

Lock

R. Gary

J. Taylor

A. Dillard (either him or another O lineman but I almost always see 2 go and O lineman tend to go higher than expected)

M. Sweat

E. Oliver

 

On the cusp (10-17 range)

Christian Wilkins

TJ Hockenson

Devin Bush (this is a change from earlier this year)

J. Williams

B. Burns

DJ Metcalf

C. Ferrell

 

As for who falls its hard to say.  Looks like Denver is a bit of a wildcard judging by scuttlebutt.  Ditto the Lions.  Both teams linked to liking D. Bush and TJ Hockenson.  Supposedly the Packers like Hockenson, too.  Denver linked hard (Raiders too) to Lock but what if they both skip him?  Does he fall then to 15? 

 

Lets say Wilkins, Hockenson, and D. Bush all go top 14.  And I've seen that enough to think its possible.   That would open one player to fall from my first two top lists.  I doubt that player would be an O lineman since they typically don't fall.    So yeah I can see Sweat or Gary.  Or heck people are all over the map about Lock but what if they are wrong -- then Lock could drop to 15.  My point is I can easily see something unexpected to happen.   And that's me being conservative in that I can easily see more things unfold to make that happen: i.e. three O lineman go top 14 because IMO the top 3-4 OT players are similar ability wise.  Also, typically a corner goes higher than expected.  A WR typically surprisingly goes early.  The one thing I like about all this talk about the Redskins wanting a QB is maybe a team feels compelled to jump ahead of them to take Daniel Jones like the Giants?

 

But yeah I can see a drop that is funky come our way at 15.  The Jonathan Allen drop would seem absurd at this point in 2017.  Heck Hooker almost dropped to our pick too and that was a surprise.  Derwin James was in the 5-10 range in a lot of mocks.

 

And I think if anything something like that is more likely to align this time than it did in the previous two drafts.  Heck it could be E. Oliver?  I just think it will be some player or two that we'd think is crazy unrealistic right now will be there at 15.  And my guess is if we gave up that pick for Rosen some of us will be regretting it. 

[Brixtion_skin]

18 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I think it depends on what you're looking for and how your defense is set up. Speed on the edge is something we desperately need IMO. Big DEs/OLBs who can set the edge in the run game are easier to find than great pass rushers. In an ideal world you'd find a guy who's elite at both but that's not easy to find. That being said, an OLB doesn't have to be 270 lbs to set the edge as long as he has good strength and technique. I'd be fine with a pass rush specialist early in the draft if we truly believed he could be an elite pass rusher and/or he could learn to be at least decent in the run game. 

 

Psychologically I would feel better if he were nearer 260 and assuming he has the strength to match.  Do you think the coaching staff would play him on most downs?

 

I just looked up the wiki weight of Von Miller and he is listed as 250.  Suppose he has not done too badly in his NFL career.  

[Skin'emAlive]

Regarding wr's

 

DK Metcalf:

He will be the 1st receiver off the board because of his potential. If he was a polished route-runner, he would possibly go top 5. If you are going to draft him, you need to build your team around the fact that his skill set is a bit limited right now. Bubble screens, quick slants, go routes, and posts are probably your 4 options here. His speed, frame, and athletic ability are what make him special. Taking him without a quarterback is a tough sell.

 

AJ Brown:

I really like this kid. He has the confidence that you look for in a wr. He looks like every wr that ever suits up for Pittsburgh. The guy can do any route that you ask for, but his potential is not higher than DK. He also doesnt have an elite ability. He's just all around good at everything.

 

Hakeem Butler

Dude is probably the best blocking WR in the draft. He's also huge and able to come down with jump balls. His route running imo is mediocre though. His first steps are slow, as most 6'6" guys would are expected to be. It takes a while for him to get going and that can be an issue. Im not convinced about his football IQ, but his YAC is pretty good, and plays with a mean streak. Dude will bowl over people.

 

JJ Arcega Whiteside

The best contested catch wr in the draft. He has an elite box out on the corner fade. Its poetry. Its one of those plays where you know its coming, and theres nothing you can do to stop it. Its the same feeling when you saw Megatron or prime Jimmy Graham in the endzone. Basically, if your qb can throw a fade with touch, hes coming down with it. He isnt the fastest guy, but his football IQ is tops and he has surprisingly good footwork for such a big wr. All he has to do is set up that fade a few times to catch the db cheating. After that, he has a good head fake and stutter step to set up the go route off the corner fade. If your qb has an above average ability to toss the ball up high on fades, posts, and go routes ( Wilson, Stafford, Rivers, Big Ben) then this guy is going to be a beast. That being said, he's just a mediocre blocker for such a big guy, and though his YAC is pretty dang good according to the numbers he isnt a guy you can expect to break through tackles.

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Hockenson MIGHT be the "faller" ... he and Fant are game-changers. IF we don't use #15 as part of a package for Rosen, I would love Hockenson, but I would also love to trade #15 to the Patriots so they can come get their Gronk replacement, and get #32 and 2 of their 2nd or 3rd rounders that they seem to have a bevy of.

 

Hockenson has had an interesting ride in the mocks.  Started as a late first rounder.  Then a mid first rounder.  Now I see him anywhere from 7 to 20.  I don't know if I would call Hockenson a faller if he ends up at 15.  But he's changed from being borderline slam dunk (at least judging by mocks) at 15 to it being a wild card.  Being a big Hockenson guy it makes me nervous listening to different draft podcasts with national reporters talking up how certain teams picking ahead of us like Hockenson.  Hearing the same about Devin Bush.  That's why am wondering if Bush now might go before our pick.   

52 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

So given recent rumors, I think there's one thing we can count on for sure that'll be available at #15:

 

1) Starting caliber LG

2) Whatever safety we want

3) Talented IDL (but we're loaded there)

4) Whatever RB we want (but we're loaded there)

 

 

1. On your 1, I agree.  If they want Cody Ford for example he likely will be there.  Heck even Jonah Williams might be there.

2. Agree.  But isn't it a bit rich to go safety at 15?  I doubt they'd do it.  

3.  Agree.

4.  Agree.  

 

52 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

Then good odds for:

1) One of (if not both somehow) the last two upper tier Edge guys, Brian Burns or Clelin Ferrell

2) Whatever CB we want (although none are enticing at #15)

3) Whatever WR we want

 

1.  Agree.  I've been on that point for weeks.  The odds are we can chose Ferrell or Burns and likely both will be there

2. Looks that way.  But corners often go higher in reality than the mocks so it wouldn't shock me if one goes before our pick

3. Yep.  But I don't think I'd take one at 15.  It might be what they do if they trade down.  According to Hoffman, they like N'Keal Harry and Marquise Brown and do not like Metcalf.  The sweet spot for Harry or Brown might be late first. 

 

52 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

OK odds for:

1) Either Hockenson or Fant being there

1) Either of the two Devin ILB's being there

 

Bad odds for:

1) One of the top 3 QB's lasting to #15

 

1.  I'd say very good odds Fant is there.  50-50 on Hockenson

2.  I'd guess no shot Devin White falls. 50-50 Bush does.

3.  Agree bad odds on the QBs.

 

[mistertim]

17 minutes ago, Brixtion_skin said:

 

Psychologically I would feel better if he were nearer 260 and assuming he has the strength to match.  Do you think the coaching staff would play him on most downs?

 

I just looked up the wiki weight of Von Miller and he is listed as 250.  Suppose he has not done too badly in his NFL career.  

 

Usually when we're talking about a 6'5 235 lb guy I'd immediately say that the kid should easily be able to add plenty of muscle. However, apparently Burns was asked about bulking up for the combine (where he came in at 249) and he said that it "wasn't easy". Not sure if that means he has ****ty trainers or what but that's a little odd to me as I'd think his frame with a good diet and training should be able to support way over that without issues. Maybe he had just never really done it before so it was a bit new/tough for him.

 

That being said, the bulking up all depends on if it affects his pass rush. If he goes up to 260-270 and he loses some of what makes him such an explosive rusher I'd prefer him to stick to a lower weight and teach him to more effectively use leverage and technique to improve his run defense; that's one of the ways that Von Miller is at 250 and is still a damn good run defender. Drafting a guy for his talent and explosion as an edge rusher and then diminishing his raw ability in order to be able to cram him into our preconceived notion of what our OLBs "should" be isn't a great idea IMO.

[Skin'emAlive]

I wanted to continue on a tangent here. The difference between a good jump-ball receiver and a great one is the ability to box out. I dont think Doctson is all that bad at the jump ball. Dude has some hops, and isnt afraid of contact. The issue that Josh has is more the fact that he allows his defender to have a chance at coming down with the ball as well. This is the difference between leet and good. Anquan Boldin had a supremely successful career due to his ability to prevent the other man from catching his ball.

[mistertim]

16 minutes ago, Skin'emAlive said:

I wanted to continue on a tangent here. The difference between a good jump-ball receiver and a great one is the ability to box out. I dont think Doctson is all that bad at the jump ball. Dude has some hops, and isnt afraid of contact. The issue that Josh has is more the fact that he allows his defender to have a chance at coming down with the ball as well. This is the difference between leet and good. Anquan Boldin had a supremely successful career due to his ability to prevent the other man from catching his ball.

 

I think another important thing is being able to high point the ball. IMO that's something a guy has or doesn't have for the most part as it just has to do with being able to judge where the ball is, where/when the high point will be, and how he has to adjust his leap. That's an inherent thing that some guys seem to have, though I'm sure it can get better with practice as well for guys who don't necessarily have an elite natural ability for it. From what I've seen Doctson is actually pretty good with that, but not elite. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's my Mock based on what the experts and mocks are reflecting. In past years I have found easy trade partners to align BPA with needs, but this is a year in which I have found it extremely hard to even try to project a trade, especially in the Top 10. The only trade that really makes sense to me is the TB and NYJ swap. TB may want to get ahead of Oakland to have their choice of White or Williams, and the Jets want to stockpile picks and can still get their edge guy at 5.

 

1. Arizona - Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma

2. San Francisco - Joey Bosa, Edge Ohio State

 

*Trade* - TB sends 1.5 and 4.7 to NYJ for 1.3

 

3. Tampa Bay - Quinnen Williams, DT Alabama

4. Oakland - Devin White, ILB LSU

5. NY Jets - Josh Allen, Edge Kentucky

6. NY Giants - Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio State

7. Jacksonville - Jonah Williams, OL Alabama

8. Detroit - Montez Sweat, Edge Miss. State

9. Buffalo - Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida

10. Denver - Drew Lock, QB Mizzou

11. Cincinnati - Devin Bush, ILB Michigan

12. Green Bay - TJ Hockenson, TE Iowa

13. Miami - Brian Burns, Edge Florida State

14. Atlanta - Ed Oliver, DT Houston

15. Washington ------

 

So this is where I think we try to trade out and get NE to come up for Fant.

 

This is also a draft where the DBs are quite good, but don't match up well with needs of teams drafting early. Greedy Williams could be a steal here at 15, but do we have that luxury with all the holes and investments we've made at DB over the years?

 

AJ Brown could be the pick too, and I wouldn't argue it.

 

And put me down for someone who doesn't think Clelin Ferrell or Rashean Gary are good picks there at 15. Gary has great measurables and is a freak athlete but doesn't have the tape to confirm those skills, and Ferrell is more of a 4-3 DE.

 

Baltimore is apparently hot on Ferrell and need a 4-3 edge  and he's a perfect fit. If they perceive he may be gone by their pick, I would offer to move from 15 to 22 and get their late 3rd rounder.

 

Going from 15 to 32 with NE would likely net us a 2, if not a 2 and a later 3rd.

 

But the way that first 14 lines up, I'm not sure there's anyone I would REALLY want at 15 who would be a sure-fire blue chip guy that lines up with a need. I'd be cool with Fant, Greedy, AJ Brown, Cody Ford ... but those are guys you could probably get 5-10 picks later. Nobody there that, at least for the Skins purposes, screams "OMG we have to take him!"

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

[Brixtion_skin]

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Usually when we're talking about a 6'5 235 lb guy I'd immediately say that the kid should easily be able to add plenty of muscle. However, apparently Burns was asked about bulking up for the combine (where he came in at 249) and he said that it "wasn't easy". Not sure if that means he has ****ty trainers or what but that's a little odd to me as I'd think his frame with a good diet and training should be able to support way over that without issues. Maybe he had just never really done it before so it was a bit new/tough for him.

 

That being said, the bulking up all depends on if it affects his pass rush. If he goes up to 260-270 and he loses some of what makes him such an explosive rusher I'd prefer him to stick to a lower weight and teach him to more effectively use leverage and technique to improve his run defense; that's one of the ways that Von Miller is at 250 and is still a damn good run defender. Drafting a guy for his talent and explosion as an edge rusher and then diminishing his raw ability in order to be able to cram him into our preconceived notion of what our OLBs "should" be isn't a great idea IMO.

 

On your point about cramming into a pre conceived notion is spot on.  Extra bulk does not necessarily equal power and certainly can impact speed and endurance.  

 

Picking him at 15 if you think he can play most downs is fine.  If not then I think there are better things to do with pick 15.  Does anyone know what he is like in coverage?

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I disagree on Sternberger. Combination of Reed and Davis?  That's like a Frankenstein concoction of the worst TE blocker in the NFL.  😁   I think Cooley would be the better comparison to Sternberger.    He doesn't have elite athleticism but the dude gets open and if I recall led all TEs in YAC.  And as blocker he's OK/average IMO. 

 

As a blocker, I'd compare him to Fant.  Fant also IMO is OK and a willing blocker but nothing special in that department.  I prefer Fant to Sternberger because of his athleticism.  As for Irv Smith, I am not sure.  It's close to me between him and Sternberger.

 

 

Ok, that was kind of an embellishment on my part.  When I mentioned both it was some defining aspects of both of their blocking styles (in my mind).  Vernon Davis is more of a positional blocker, no power, just arm extension and try and keep them at bay.  If the play changes from the lane Vernon is trying to keep clean, then the defender can easily shed in either direction.  I think Sternberger has some of that, not quite as bad as Vernon in terms of lack of power, but I don't think he exhibits good "play strength".

 

As for the Reed comparison, his blocking ability that most comes to mind is how he whiffs on guys when trying to get to the second level.  I think Sternberger gets juked like Reed does a bit too often.  Compare that to Irv Smith who is like a damn magnet for second level blocks.

 

I suppose in Sternbergers defense, I haven't seen a lot of tape.  So it's possible that was just a bad game.

 

 

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

But lets say they draft Sternberger in the 3rd round -- IMO he'd instantly be their best blocking TE aside from Sprinkle.   More importantly, I don't think putting Sternberger in the game would telegraph a pass, the dude can run block.  He's no Hockenson.  But IMO no way he's a mix of Reed-Davis as a blocker either.

 

The sad thing is, you might be right.  Also, he'd "effectively" be better at blocking than Sprinkle.  Who can block, but not well enough to overcome the fact that every defense immediately thinks "run play" as soon as Sprinkle walks onto the field.

 

 

Sternberger looks to have potential as receiving threat.  I'm not questioning his abilities there as a prospect.  Sternberger's talent as a receiving threat is better than Irv Smith.  It's just that Irv Smith can do everything, especially latch onto a linebacker or safety in space.

[Anselmheifer]

The QB 2019 thread is abuzz with the possibility that we are trading for Rosen, possibly for our 2nd in 2019 and a 3rd in 2020. If that comes to pass, I fully expect us to draft a WR in Rd 1. They will want to get Rosen weapons. 

Is it unreasonable to worry about Irv Smith's size and athleticism? He is N'Keal Harry's height, but with arms 1.5 inches shorter than Harry's. He does not have prototypical TE size. To make up for that, you would like to see elite athleticism. His 40 time is fine, at 4.63, but his broad jump and vert are note amazing at 32.5 inches and 110 inches, respectively. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/irv-smith?id=3219534d-4900-0018-f675-8c060d792d35

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/n'keal-harry?id=32194841-5265-4593-d716-d972ec2d4468

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[PlayAction]

2 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

The QB 2019 thread is abuzz with the possibility that we are trading for Rosen, possibly for our 2nd in 2019 and a 3rd in 2020. If that comes to pass, I fully expect us to draft a WR in Rd 1. They will want to get Rosen weapons. 

 

Cards are hyping everything up as much as possible to get greater value from the #1 pick or greater value for Rosen.  There are multiple suitors!  Multiple picks offered already!  I hope the Skins let the football guys make these decisions.  I'm sure Jay Gruden would like Rosen but the issue is always the cost to get him.  My gut feel is that the Skins are going to do their best to get Rosen.  If they do, then I think the Skins need to go all-in to help the offense succeed this year.  If the Skins trade their second round pick then they almost have to trade down from #15 to recoup a high pick to use on the offense.  I had suggested swapping #15 for the Cards first 2nd round pick.  There are many possible scenarios but the idea is to keep 4 picks in that lower first, second and third rounds.  Then go G/T, 1-2 WRs, and TE wherever the best value/fit for the team.  Of course, you can't completely ignore other positions of greater value but the strategic goal would be to let Rosen actually develop into your hoped for franchise QB.  If one of the top 4 picks is for a higher value defensive player then so be it but the G and WR positions are a must.  Skins can get by with a lower TE but not with the existing depth at Guard or WR. 

[HardcoreZorn]

20 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Running with mocks and listening to mock podcasts from insiders with the disclaimer that some of those people were likely purposely given some misinformation:

 

List 1:  Going for sure before 15

Murray

Bosa

Q. Williams

D. White (that's a change from earlier this year)

J. Allen

 

List 2:  Very likely going before 15

Haskins

Lock

R. Gary

J. Taylor

A. Dillard (either him or another O lineman but I almost always see 2 go and O lineman tend to go higher than expected)

M. Sweat

E. Oliver

 

On the cusp (10-17 range)

Christian Wilkins

TJ Hockenson

Devin Bush (this is a change from earlier this year)

J. Williams

B. Burns

DJ Metcalf

C. Ferrell

 

As for who falls its hard to say.  Looks like Denver is a bit of a wildcard judging by scuttlebutt.  Ditto the Lions.  Both teams linked to liking D. Bush and TJ Hockenson.  Supposedly the Packers like Hockenson, too.  Denver linked hard (Raiders too) to Lock but what if they both skip him?  Does he fall then to 15? 

 

Lets say Wilkins, Hockenson, and D. Bush all go top 14.  And I've seen that enough to think its possible.   That would open one player to fall from my first two top lists.  I doubt that player would be an O lineman since they typically don't fall.    So yeah I can see Sweat or Gary.  Or heck people are all over the map about Lock but what if they are wrong -- then Lock could drop to 15.  My point is I can easily see something unexpected to happen.   And that's me being conservative in that I can easily see more things unfold to make that happen: i.e. three O lineman go top 14 because IMO the top 3-4 OT players are similar ability wise.  Also, typically a corner goes higher than expected.  A WR typically surprisingly goes early.  The one thing I like about all this talk about the Redskins wanting a QB is maybe a team feels compelled to jump ahead of them to take Daniel Jones like the Giants?

 

But yeah I can see a drop that is funky come our way at 15.  The Jonathan Allen drop would seem absurd at this point in 2017.  Heck Hooker almost dropped to our pick too and that was a surprise.  Derwin James was in the 5-10 range in a lot of mocks.

 

And I think if anything something like that is more likely to align this time than it did in the previous two drafts.  Heck it could be E. Oliver?  I just think it will be some player or two that we'd think is crazy unrealistic right now will be there at 15.  And my guess is if we gave up that pick for Rosen some of us will be regretting it. 

No first for Rosen. I agree with everything you said, I’ll be upset if any years first rounder is involved. To me something conditional has to make the most sense. Like 3rd this year and conditional 3rd next year that can become a second. Cardinals recoup 2 day picks over 2 years and potentially a second round pick in 2020. Whatever team get him if he ends up busting, 2 thirds is well worth the risk. And if it’s a 3rd and a 2nd for a guy who booms then you are feeling damn good about securing your QB for such minimal assets and cap space. His value is higher in theory, but they have to get rid of him if they want Murray and teams know it. Sure a bidding war could drive up the price a little bit but I really have a tough time envisioning any team throwing a first to a team they know is desperate to unload the guy. My opinion.

 

And yeah, every year someone drops and this will be no different. A stud will be there.

[Burgold]

Call me consistent, but buying high (Rosen) for a QB that wasn't good in his rookie campaign when the HC is on the hot seat and the GM should be is a bad move. Likewise, grabbing a QB in the draft just because you have to grab a QB is a bad move. The consensus was that this is a poor QB year which suggests that almost any QB pick in the first is going to be a reach and not a value pick. Given our needs at linebacker, guard, safety, wide receiver, and elsewhere, we are so much better getting a great prospect at another position than a QB who just happens to be there.

 

No to Rosen. No to first round QBs.

 

Mind you, part of me wants us to have a 2-14 or 4-12 season so we can clean house. Alternatively, Case has shown if well surrounded he can be good enough to get you to a deep playoff run. That's one more reason not to gamble on a QB with greater odds of busting than being great.

[Skinsinparadise]

If they trade down, I do like Marquise if his health checks out.  They have no one dynamic in the passing game.  Marquise was my first mega draft crush during the college season -- its diminished some because I prefer other players (I still do) but if they trade down later in the first and he's still there and he's right health wise -- he's a stud IMO.

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2829494-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-nfl-insiders-believe-top-5-picks-are-a-lock?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-league

 

• Ole Miss' D.K. Metcalf took over the world with a shirtless photo and then a blistering 4.33-second run in the 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, but don't let that fool you into thinking he's a lock to be the first receiver drafted. A top-level scout said Metcalf could see competition from teammate A.J. Brown or Oklahoma's Marquise Brown for the WR1 spot.