Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[goskins10]

9 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

We were 3-2 last year as well 

 

 

and yes, ppl were making Alex Smith out to be a gunslinging beast in the offseason. That was happening here and on twitter. That’s why a lot of us are so passionate about how poorly he’s playing now honestly 

 

Just caught it - good on you...  I addressed it below (3-2 vs. 2-3). Was wondering when someone would finally catch it. 

 

And those prognostications are greatly exaggerated in terms of the number of people making such claims.  The large majority was saying he was a little more cautious than Kirk meaning less excitement but less TOs. I guess there was some twitter activity but I honestly cannot think of a worse place for any kind of information. I purposely do not follow that ****. I really wish they would ban it since it seems to bring out the dumb in people - but then again that's probably just me being a grumpy old man.

 

And again - he is not playing that poorly. I posted his numbers as compared to Kirk last year through 5 gms and they are not a lot different. 

 

Just for the record - I was not one of those who thought Alex was an upgrade. And I said he was not immediately. But he was the best available after Kirk - and thanks to brucie Kirk was never coming back. 

[crabbypatty]

I read today that Redskins wr's have the fewest targets in the entire NFL.. 75. Though 5 games receivers are targeted a mere 15 times a game.

Pretty pathetic, and an indictment on both our qb and lousy pass catchers.. but more so on the QB I'm, since Kirk had the same collection of garbage to throw to last year and somehow made it work.

[PartyPosse]

22 minutes ago, crabbypatty said:

I read today that Redskins wr's have the fewest targets in the entire NFL.. 75. Though 5 games receivers are targeted a mere 15 times a game.

Pretty pathetic, and an indictment on both our qb and lousy pass catchers.. but more so on the QB I'm, since Kirk had the same collection of garbage to throw to last year and somehow made it work.

You sort of have to blame it on the QB who once went an entire season without a WR TD

 

To put into comparison Washington targeted WR 55.6 % of the time last year and 59.2 the year before. This year? A mere 48.5%. 5th to last. On the bright side, two of those 4 in front of us were in the Super Bowl last year.

[TheShredder]

Turnovers are the difference in the game when you have a top 10 defense and a running game.  Logically when you haven't achieved much chemistry between QB and Receivers, then the worst thing that can happen is a turnover.  Alex Smith is a pretty seasoned QB that isn't going to lose the game for you.  He's competent and accurate passing the ball.  He doesn't fumble often when being sacked and understands how to win.  In NO game, he was uncomfortable all game.  Eli Manning type performance.  Gruden needs to find the Switch to Turn on Alex Smith.  The play calling must give him quick options for consistency.  I'll take 'not losing' the game from Alex Smith vs giving it away ala Cousins.  

[ncr2h]

2 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

Just caught it - good on you...  I addressed it below (3-2 vs. 2-3). Was wondering when someone would finally catch it. 

 

And those prognostications are greatly exaggerated in terms of the number of people making such claims.  The large majority was saying he was a little more cautious than Kirk meaning less excitement but less TOs. I guess there was some twitter activity but I honestly cannot think of a worse place for any kind of information. I purposely do not follow that ****. I really wish they would ban it since it seems to bring out the dumb in people - but then again that's probably just me being a grumpy old man.

 

And again - he is not playing that poorly. I posted his numbers as compared to Kirk last year through 5 gms and they are not a lot different. 

 

Just for the record - I was not one of those who thought Alex was an upgrade. And I said he was not immediately. But he was the best available after Kirk - and thanks to brucie Kirk was never coming back. 

 

They are night and day.

 

Through 5 games, here are their respective stat lines. You'll see that Kirk was playing about 25-30% more efficiently than Smith. He also achieved a 3-2 record despite playing a schedule that included 4 of his first 5 games against undefeated teams. The teams Smith has faced are a combined 12-14-1, and Smith handed Indianapolis its only W of the season.

 

Cousins: 105/158 (66%) for 1,334 yards (8.4 y/a), 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 8 sacks; ANY/A = 8.1

Smith: 110/171 (64%) for 1,205 yards (7.0 y/a), 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 12 sacks; ANY/A = 6.4

 

In those 5 games, Smith had 3 games with an ANY/A below 6.0 (for reference, 6.0 would typically place you as the #20-25 ranked QB over the course of a season). Cousins had 0 games below 6.0 and 4 above 8.0 (8.0 sustained over a full season would typically put a QB in the MVP race), including back-to-back games above 10.0.

If ANY/A is too complicated a stat, let's put it like this - Cousins had 10% more yards, 33% more TDs, and 33% fewer sacks on 9% fewer dropbacks.

 

Cousins started last year playing like the upper tier QB that he is. Smith has started this year playing like the middling QB that he is. The numbers are not similar at all - they are night and day.

 

The difference that may be coloring your view is that the 2018 defense only gave up 61 points (15 ppg) in 4 of the first 5 games, compared to 83 (21 ppg) in 4 of its first 5 games. The 2018 Saints game was essentially unwinnable - but other than that the defense has been shutting teams down. In 2017, the defense was reliably giving up 25-30 points per game, even during the stretch of the year when they played well. In addition to being stingier with points, the 2018 defense also has forced 3 more turnovers through he first 5 games than the 2017 defense did.

[Skinsinparadise]

going through this thread some its predominately two thoughts.  A little of this:  TO he's my QB.  Some hyperbole to bring home the point.

 

 

 

then we got a lot more of this which is uncertainty.  Most of us don't really differ that much in our opinions.   You can define other people's mixed emotions as positive or negative based on cherry picking parts of posts -- optimistic or pessimistic but its all variations of the same thing with shades of grey differences.   So I think there is more agreement here than it can come off to some.  Just different shades of the same thing.  I think almost every one here agrees he's not off to a hot start and I think almost everyone agrees that the sample size needs to be bigger to judge -- with a few exceptions on both the positive and negative scale.

 

 

[JSSkinz]

Just so we're all on the same page Alex has 5 fumbles in 5 games this year, he's lucky we only lost one of them.

 

 

[goskins10]

31 minutes ago, ncr2h said:

 

They are night and day.

 

Through 5 games, here are their respective stat lines. You'll see that Kirk was playing about 25-30% more efficiently than Smith. He also achieved a 3-2 record despite playing a schedule that included 4 of his first 5 games against undefeated teams. The teams Smith has faced are a combined 12-14-1, and Smith handed Indianapolis its only W of the season.

 

Cousins: 105/158 (66%) for 1,334 yards (8.4 y/a), 9 TDs, 2 INTs, 8 sacks; ANY/A = 8.1

Smith: 110/171 (64%) for 1,205 yards (7.0 y/a), 6 TDs, 2 INTs, 12 sacks; ANY/A = 6.4

 

In those 5 games, Smith had 3 games with an ANY/A below 6.0 (for reference, 6.0 would typically place you as the #20-25 ranked QB over the course of a season). Cousins had 0 games below 6.0 and 4 above 8.0 (8.0 sustained over a full season would typically put a QB in the MVP race), including back-to-back games above 10.0.

If ANY/A is too complicated a stat, let's put it like this - Cousins had 10% more yards, 33% more TDs, and 33% fewer sacks on 9% fewer dropbacks.

 

Cousins started last year playing like the upper tier QB that he is. Smith has started this year playing like the middling QB that he is. The numbers are not similar at all - they are night and day.

 

The difference that may be coloring your view is that the 2018 defense only gave up 61 points (15 ppg) in 4 of the first 5 games, compared to 83 (21 ppg) in 4 of its first 5 games. The 2018 Saints game was essentially unwinnable - but other than that the defense has been shutting teams down. In 2017, the defense was reliably giving up 25-30 points per game, even during the stretch of the year when they played well. In addition to being stingier with points, the 2018 defense also has forced 3 more turnovers through he first 5 games than the 2017 defense did.

 

First, unless it is too complicated for you, you can drop the arrogance.

 

Second, I posted these very stats, giving credit to kirk for being a bit better. But night and day, not hardly.  Only if you have an ax to grind.

 

The d was playing very well the first 5 or so games. I like this defense better but it’s not a big difference between how it was playing early last year  Then the injuries hit and it came apart.  

 

I belive overall kirk is a better QB than Alex and that has been consistent since day one. Not swing anything different now. But not leaps and bounds. And it took kirk some time as the starter to be effective.  Alex has had 5 games and he is staying close.    

[ncr2h]

11 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

First, unless it is too complicated for you, you can drop the arrogance.

 

Second, I posted these very stats, giving credit to kirk for being a bit better. But night and day, not hardly.  Only if you have an ax to grind.

 

The d was playing very well the first 5 or so games. I like this defense better but it’s not a big difference between how it was playing early last year  Then the injuries hit and it came apart.  

 

I belive overall kirk is a better QB than Alex and that has been consistent since day one. Not swing anything different now. But not leaps and bounds. And it took kirk some time as the starter to be effective.  Alex has had 5 games and he is staying close.    

 

Alex's 6.4 ANY/A through 5 games places him #17 in the league. Kirk's 8.4 ANY/A through his first 5 games last year, if sustained over the course of the full season, would have been the best ANY/A in the league by a wide margin. There would be more margin between Kirk and the #2 QB than there is between the #2 QB and the #7 QB. So the difference between Alex's and Kirk's play is essentially the difference between an All Pro QB and the #17 QB. That seems like a substantial difference to me.

 

As mentioned before, about 1/2 of the 2018 defense's points given up came in 1 game. If we admit that the Saints game was unwinnable, then we are left with 4 remaining games. In those 4 games, the defense gave up an average of 15 ppg. This would place them #4 in the league. The 2017 defense was giving up ~25 points nearly every game, and generating fewer turnovers as well. This seems like a much better defensive performance.

[SkinsFTW]

Down 43-13 to the Saints late in the game Kapri Bibbs runs in from 1 yard for a Touchdown!

 

The Redskins ONLY second half Touchdown for, so far, 5 games into the season.

 

Even losing by 20+ points for half of an entire game vs a passing defense that blows, zilch.

 

Yeah Alex is fine.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

32 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

Down 43-13 to the Saints late in the game Kapri Bibbs runs in from 1 yard for a Touchdown!

 

The Redskins ONLY second half Touchdown for, so far, 5 games into the season.

 

Even losing by 20+ points for half of an entire game vs a passing defense that blows, zilch.

 

Yeah Alex is fine.

 

So brutal, but so true.  The only hope for the offense is for Jay to mix it up and do whatever he has to do to get the most out of Smith.

[JPG]

7 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

The key to all 3 of our wins was establishing the run game and the defense holding on/getting turnovers.  So yeah, I think a rookie could manage those games at a much cheaper salary.  

 

Perhaps it starts clicking and things get much better offensively.  But if it stays exactly as it is, there’s no doubt a rookie could produce just the same.

 

If we had Rosen starting from the beginning I think we would be 1-4. He has looked lost at times. I’m not sure Gruden would want to deal with a rookie while he has pressure  to win now.

 

So all of our victories have been just handing the ball off and our monster defense. 

 

You’re really not going to give Smith any credit in these victories ?

 

I get what you are saying. Hindsight is they could of found a cheaper option or gambled on a rookie. They believe in this team and if we can come out and win these next two then I think we have a real good chance this year. Get us in the cold weather and a run game and QB like Smith gives us a chance versus anyone.

[beachboy757]

We knew what Alex Smith was when he got here.  The numbers look similar to the KC Chiefs teams he played on except for the big passing year last season.  The Chiefs were always bottom of the league passing but had a good defense and good running game.  

 

 Alex Smith's 'conservative' style of play helps contribute to a good defense, running game, and good W/L record. It's been that way with him since his late years with the 49ers.  

 

The passing game will need to improve if the team has playoff hopes though.  We will not be able to compete against the Saints, Rams, Eagles or Vikings with this offense.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

I'm rewatching the game and that TD pass to VD was a thing of beauty. I still think that Smith is still learning the offense but that, and other plays like the deep ball to PR against GB gives me hope of things to come once the offense comes together. 

 

Honestly i don't care if he's using Reed, Doctson or whoever else he can get chemistry with, i just want him to get comfy and see more drives that last. 

[Thinking Skins]

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/

 

I was looking at this the other day and found it interesting. For all the flack Smith is getting, I never see a stalled offense. So this table on average drive stats says we have the second longest average drives in the league, behind Atlanta with 6.4 plays per drive. This is what I've been echoing in game threads where we've been moving the ball, but the drives stall before we score. 

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Also, and again I'm watching the Carolina game again and it seemed like Carolina wasn't afraid of Pererson, especially with the play action. I dint know if there was a tell tale, like AP's mouthpiece, but when we tried the play action, almost nobody bit. 

[goskins10]

6 hours ago, ncr2h said:

 

Alex's 6.4 ANY/A through 5 games places him #17 in the league. Kirk's 8.4 ANY/A through his first 5 games last year, if sustained over the course of the full season, would have been the best ANY/A in the league by a wide margin. There would be more margin between Kirk and the #2 QB than there is between the #2 QB and the #7 QB. So the difference between Alex's and Kirk's play is essentially the difference between an All Pro QB and the #17 QB. That seems like a substantial difference to me.

 

As mentioned before, about 1/2 of the 2018 defense's points given up came in 1 game. If we admit that the Saints game was unwinnable, then we are left with 4 remaining games. In those 4 games, the defense gave up an average of 15 ppg. This would place them #4 in the league. The 2017 defense was giving up ~25 points nearly every game, and generating fewer turnovers as well. This seems like a much better defensive performance.

 

Last year through 5 gms the D was giving up 22.6 pts/gm. This yr is 20.8. Total yds defensively they were 316 yds/gm through 5 gms vs. 326 yds/gm this yr - so actually 10 yds/gm more. And before you throw NO in there and want to take out that out, you have to remove the 429 by KC too. But you cant cherry pick the stats. They are what they are. I like what the D has done and agree they had one bad game so far. But they were playing pretty well early last year too. As for the running gm, last yr through 5 gms the team was rushing for 122.8 yds/gm. This yr its 116.8, so actually a little less although I would call it about the same.

 

As for starting off as an upper tier QB last yr - against the eagles Kirk was directly responsible for 3 TOs 1 int and 2 lost fumbles. Stat line overall was not very good -23/40 240 yds  6.0 ave/att 1 TD 1 int - 2 lost fumbles and 4 sacks. That is worse than any game Alex has had so far. He followed that up with an 18/27 for 179 yd performance. They won thanks to 229 yds on the ground. In fact the first 5 gms the Redskins rushed the ball well out side the philly game - a loss with 4 total TOs, 3 from Kirk. The team rushed for over 100 yds in gms 2, 3, and 4 and 94 in gm 5, 3 of those wins. The team only rushed for 100 twice the rest of the season and the D was ****. And the team only won 4 more games after the 3-2 start. So decent running game and D, the team was 3-2. No running game and a bad D, the team goes 4-7. Not a coincidence. Both QBs need a running game and D to be successful.

 

No one is saying Alex is "fine" or that he is playing great. He has had a couple of good Qs. He needs to get better. And he is not quite as good an overall QB as Kirk. I am not sure anyone outside some people who never liked Kirk would say otherwise. But he is not playing "night and day" different than Kirk.

 

Let's see where it goes from here. I honestly could care less who is responsible - if the team wins I will be very happy. The team has a great opportunity here to put away some demons and take control of this division. The next 3 to 5 gms should be very winnable. To do that, Alex will have to paly better. Let's see if they start getting it together.

 

 

[Mr. Sinister]

All I know is I'm just sad. Very sad.

[ncr2h]

3 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

Last year through 5 gms the D was giving up 22.6 pts/gm. This yr is 20.8. Total yds defensively they were 316 yds/gm through 5 gms vs. 326 yds/gm this yr - so actually 10 yds/gm more. And before you throw NO in there and want to take out that out, you have to remove the 429 by KC too. But you cant cherry pick the stats. They are what they are. I like what the D has done and agree they had one bad game so far. But they were playing pretty well early last year too. As for the running gm, last yr through 5 gms the team was rushing for 122.8 yds/gm. This yr its 116.8, so actually a little less although I would call it about the same.

 

As for starting off as an upper tier QB last yr - against the eagles Kirk was directly responsible for 3 TOs 1 int and 2 lost fumbles. Stat line overall was not very good -23/40 240 yds  6.0 ave/att 1 TD 1 int - 2 lost fumbles and 4 sacks. That is worse than any game Alex has had so far. He followed that up with an 18/27 for 179 yd performance. They won thanks to 229 yds on the ground. In fact the first 5 gms the Redskins rushed the ball well out side the philly game - a loss with 4 total TOs, 3 from Kirk. The team rushed for over 100 yds in gms 2, 3, and 4 and 94 in gm 5, 3 of those wins. The team only rushed for 100 twice the rest of the season and the D was ****. And the team only won 4 more games after the 3-2 start. So decent running game and D, the team was 3-2. No running game and a bad D, the team goes 4-7. Not a coincidence. Both QBs need a running game and D to be successful.

 

No one is saying Alex is "fine" or that he is playing great. He has had a couple of good Qs. He needs to get better. And he is not quite as good an overall QB as Kirk. I am not sure anyone outside some people who never liked Kirk would say otherwise. But he is not playing "night and day" different than Kirk.

 

Let's see where it goes from here. I honestly could care less who is responsible - if the team wins I will be very happy. The team has a great opportunity here to put away some demons and take control of this division. The next 3 to 5 gms should be very winnable. To do that, Alex will have to paly better. Let's see if they start getting it together.

 

 

 

I completely disagree with you, but I've made my points clearly and there's no point repeating myself. I won't be responding further to you on this subject. Have a good day.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

8 hours ago, JPG said:

 

You’re really not going to give Smith any credit in these victories ?

 

That’s not what I’m saying.  What I am saying is a rookie could replicate everything that he has done, both good and bad.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Also, and again I'm watching the Carolina game again and it seemed like Carolina wasn't afraid of Pererson, especially with the play action. I dint know if there was a tell tale, like AP's mouthpiece, but when we tried the play action, almost nobody bit. 

 

Usually play action is about how well you fake it, the QB, the RB, the O line, the whole nine yards.    As to Alex.  He sort of embodies to me the team.  I really don't know what to think about it.  I've seen some good, some bad.  Not a lot of consistency.  I've seen enough to signs of optimism and also pessimism.  My only argument on that front is with those who are trying to convince its been good -- and granted they aren't that many of those people at the moment.   I got no quarrel with those who say the good is coming.  Sure, its possible.  Ditto the team at large.

 

And I've personally been consistently unsure about the team.  I said it in the off season.  I also wasn't among the ones panicking after the losses versus the Colts or the Saints and predicted wins after both of those games.  Hopefully, the identity of the team emerges soon.  I can't quite figure it out thus far.

 

The one glimmer of optimism to me is luck related.  Seems like the team is cursed sometimes with bad luck.  Looks like we have a dose of good luck for a change.  We've had some bad luck as for WR injuries.  But otherwise, we have a favorable schedule for a change, not a winning record team on the docket for the rest of the season, that's insane.  And reading the story about how they stumbled on Peterson -- what a stroke of luck that turned out to be -- the dude is by a mile the key to this offense.

[TradeTheBeal!]

12 hours ago, JSSkinz said:

Just so we're all on the same page Alex has 5 fumbles in 5 games this year, he's lucky we only lost one of them.

 

 

 

See, he and Kirk do have a lot in common!

[SkinsFTW]

1 hour ago, TryTheBeal! said:

 

See, he and Kirk do have a lot in common!

 

Lets see if he can throw more TD's than his fumbles though. Kirk is already well into double digits.

[TradeTheBeal!]

8 minutes ago, SkinsFTW said:

 

Lets see if he can throw more TD's than his fumbles though. Kirk is already well into double digits.

 

Im more concerned if Smith can beat Dallas.  Cousins is an ugly 0-5 in the matchup.

 

Colt is 1-0, btw.

[JPG]

3 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

That’s not what I’m saying.  What I am saying is a rookie could replicate everything that he has done, both good and bad.

 

Which one? How would you have gotten him with at our pick? Even with all that to consider. The only rookies I could see doing what you said are Darnold and Mayfield. Rosen lookslike he needs some time.

 

Alex has flashed with some good plays here and there. He has also looked uncomfortable at times. I have seen a Veteran QB at times do the savy little things that help get a W. 

 

I think it is clear to see that he will improve with better protection and timing with his receivers. I think it is ridiculous what weapons we have at WR. 

 

And for all the people that still have Kirks head stuck between your cheeks. Give it one last push. And flush that fool. He’s up there in football heaven with his better weapons, new stadium, and purple uniforms. He still isn’t going to get Trophy up there unless the get the run game and D going.