Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[celticsalmon]

Alex Smith was supposed to be THE QB for Gruiden's offense. In March the head coach gushed about how much better Smith is to Kirk Cousins saying “I don’t want to compare two players, but we’re always trying to be better at every position. We got better." Since  Kirk has twice as many TDs as Smith, I'm beginning to think Gruden is not the QB genius we've been led to believe.

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

I don’t know, I believe Gruden talked himself into Alex more than he actually thought he’s a better QB than Kirk.  

[JoggingGod]

2 hours ago, skinfan2k said:

Do you have evidence? What weapons do we have?  a injured TE and a 30+ yd old RB lol

1) Jeremy Maclin’s production went way down when he went to the Chiefs to play with Alex Smith

 

2) Smith is missing wide open recievers left and right.

[DJHJR86]

11 minutes ago, celticsalmon said:

Alex Smith was supposed to be THE QB for Gruiden's offense. In March the head coach gushed about how much better Smith is to Kirk Cousins saying “I don’t want to compare two players, but we’re always trying to be better at every position. We got better." Since  Kirk has twice as many TDs as Smith, I'm beginning to think Gruden is not the QB genius we've been led to believe.

 

I don't know what you would expect Gruden to say there.  "I don't want to compare two players, but we tried to get better at every position but we didn't with the quarterback."

 

Anyone with eyes can see that Cousins > Smith.  But that's besides the point.  The even worse look for Smith is how good KC is looking with Mahomes.  He's already one touchdown away from what Smith is projected for the entire year.  There is no doubt in my mind that the brass panicked and signed him hoping to eek into the playoffs at 9-7 or 10-6 to save their jobs.  

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

I don't know what you would expect Gruden to say there.  "I don't want to compare two players, but we tried to get better at every position but we didn't with the quarterback."

 

Anyone with eyes can see that Cousins > Smith.  But that's besides the point.  The even worse look for Smith is how good KC is looking with Mahomes.  He's already one touchdown away from what Smith is projected for the entire year.  There is no doubt in my mind that the brass panicked and signed him hoping to eek into the playoffs at 9-7 or 10-6 to save their jobs.  

 

I like Jay.  but yeah I do believe he genuinely bought into it.  There was another quote where he was asked if Alex was an upgrade, and Jay said without a doubt.  But the kicker to me is beat guys said Jay and FO people (I presume Doug) told them privately they expected they upgraded with Alex.  Heard it multiple times.  Even guys like John Keim said he was told that and Keim is typically conservative when it comes to sharing stuff like that.  I can even recall the narratives as to why, its Alex's consistency, his smarts-they can open up the playbook more, turnovers. 

 

I doubt all of that was leaked to reporters with them privately thinking otherwise because they are just setting themselves up to look foolish if they ended up wrong.  The over promise-under deliver thing is a bad move typically especially as for job security so I doubt they did it intentionally. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

11 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

There is no doubt in my mind that the brass panicked and signed him hoping to eek into the playoffs at 9-7 or 10-6 to save their jobs.  

 

Honestly, this is a better look for them than actually thinking that Alex is the better QB.  

[DJHJR86]

10 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

Honestly, this is a better look for them than actually thinking that Alex is the better QB.  

 

What's weird is that we traded for Smith before we knew that Guice would practically fall into our lap, and I don't think they had the foresight to know that they would be signing AP.  I don't know how anyone would have thought that losing Kirk and adding Smith would suddenly upgrade the team.  Most people saw it as a lateral move at the time.  

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

What's weird is that we traded for Smith before we knew that Guice would practically fall into our lap, and I don't think they had the foresight to know that they would be signing AP.  I don't know how anyone would have thought that losing Kirk and adding Smith would suddenly upgrade the team.  Most people saw it as a lateral move at the time.  

 

The buzz out of Ashburn is that the FO thought this team was the tits and that injuries were the only thing stopping them.  That said, Doug made it a point to talk about fixing the running game on numerous occasions in the offseason.  At least that much was glaring to them even though it’s been obvious to us for years and years.  However another common theme for them to talk about is how Jay’s offense automatically gets yards and points.  Perhaps that’s why they overlook the importance of having legitimate wideouts.

[wit33]

Alex has been below average to average to date throwing the football.

 

He’s done well with extending plays,converting 3rd downs with legs (my guess is 5-7 to this point), assisting to win time of possession in games. 

 

Im not hiding from fact in today’s NFL the value of a run game, time of possession, winning TO margin (this one still has great value) continues to diminish with all the scoring these days. Work must be done to get passing game to average or even above average for season to be good. 

 

Im willing to look for positives as Alex is #15 this year and #22 next year as far as pay per year. If he exceeds these ranking with his play,  it’s great value; if meets them good value; falls below ranking to some degree minimal value lost due to pay being what it is. 

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

1 hour ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I don’t know, I believe Gruden talked himself into Alex more than he actually thought he’s a better QB than Kirk.  

Probably ego, Remember Kirk was a shanahan pick/leftover. Like all head coaches Gruden's arrogance to have "his guy" at the helm got the better of him .

Listen I'm a Cousin's guy all the way, feel proud to say that but one thing i will give Alex Smith credit for and something he does MUCH better than kirk is sense pressure. I'v seen multiple scrambles for + yardage from Smith that would have been a sack or fumble had Cousins been back there. As far as everything else though Kirk is the superior QB.

 

 

[TD_washingtonredskins]

I'm hoping that what we are seeing in Smith during the first half of 2018 is the equivalent to what we saw in Cousins during 2014 and early-2015. 

 

For each, that was "year 1" with Gruden's system and both seem a little frazzled, uncomfortable, and seem to be leaving plays on the field. Cousins cut it loose more often which excuses his high interception totals but also explains his higher passing yards and TDs. 

 

Here was 2014 Cousins (6 games): 62% completion percentage, 285 yards per game, 10/9 TD-to-INT ratio, 86.4 QB rating

Here is 2018 Smith (5 games): 64% completion percentage, 241 yards per game, 6/2 TD-to-INT ratio, 91.9 QB rating 

 

It's not exact, but it's pretty similar in many ways. You could make the case that Smith SHOULD be a little better given he's a 14-year vet while Cousins was a 2-year vet who had only started one game prior those opportunities. I'm not quite sure how you compare the rosters or supporting cast, so I won't. 

 

My primary point is that I hope this is just the learning curve aspect of Jay's system and that we start to see him understand where to go more instinctively when things break down around him. I'm going to stick with that until we get a few more games into the season! 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

It's not exact, but it's pretty similar in many ways. You could make the case that Smith SHOULD be a little better given he's a 14-year vet while Cousins was a 2-year vet who had only started one game prior those opportunities. I'm not quite sure how you compare the rosters or supporting cast, so I won't. 

 

My primary point is that I hope this is just the learning curve aspect of Jay's system and that we start to see him understand where to go more instinctively when things break down around him. I'm going to stick with that until we get a few more games into the season! 

 

 

I agree with the few more games into the season point and the book isn't written, yet.  I also agree that QBs need time to master a system.

 

As for the Kirk comparison you bring up.  Apples to apples Kirk is learning a new system in Minny -- he's a vet now learning a system versus when he just started out in his career.  When he finally had a chance to start as a young player after having only one career start previously. That I'd bet was a challenge.  One career start as a new bee QB versus a 14 year QB -- I'd figure is night and day as to mastering Jay's system.  Heck Alex said its not that different from Andy. 

 

Kirk is ranked 7th in the league in QBR.  Alex #21.  I'd put money that if Alex was performing similarly here, he'd be lionized here like there is no tomorrow.  Kirk has much better receivers.  Alex has a much better running game thus far.  Both have shaky O lines -- the Redskins when healthy is a better O line.  Redskins the better defense so far (who would think?) but Minny's defense looks like is coming around.

 

Hopefully Alex has some kind of coming our party this Sunday.  As JP Finlay brought up the other day (and we've talked about on this thread many times) is Alex the 2017 version or is he who he has been for most of his career before that -- right now he's looking like his pre 2017 version.  Heck his QBR is very similar to the typical pre 2017 season.  Hopefully we see the 2017 version of him soon.

 

My main hope is this.  From what I've observed he's been gun shy throwing long or even intermediate routes.  And who knows if that's because he doesn't have confidence to complete those passes or whether its just his conservative tendencies.  If its the later, maybe Jay could shake that out of him and say look I won't kill you if you throw an INT, let loose.  Ironically, it was this specifically that Andy Benoit said in the off season that he thought would eventually challenge the Jay-Alex relationship and that is that Jay likes the offense to take chances and throw with anticipation -- and that's not how Alex typically rolls.

[TD_washingtonredskins]

@Skinsinparadise

 

That's a very good post, but it's not a Smith-to-Cousins comparison so much as it's a first-year-in-Jay's-offense comparison. I know it's blurry though...

 

For example, I'd compare 2018 Cousins to 2017 Keenum...they are both about the same age with about the same experience and it's year 1 in the Vikings offense. That's what I was trying to do for Smith and Cousins. Granted, the OC in Minnesota is different, so it's not a perfect comparison either. 

 

Otherwise there are too many variables...

[Skinsinparadise]

28 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

@Skinsinparadise

 

That's a very good post, but it's not a Smith-to-Cousins comparison so much as it's a first-year-in-Jay's-offense comparison. I know it's blurry though...

 

For example, I'd compare 2018 Cousins to 2017 Keenum...they are both about the same age with about the same experience and it's year 1 in the Vikings offense. That's what I was trying to do for Smith and Cousins. Granted, the OC in Minnesota is different, so it's not a perfect comparison either. 

 

Otherwise there are too many variables...

 

Sure I get it.  But for me to judge Kirk and Alex by different standards I'd have to believe that Jay's offense is so much more complex than Minny.  Minny has a new coordinator who is one of the hot shot candidates for a HC job.  I recall reading that Kirk had to learn some RPO concepts that he didn't know previously.  I am sure he had an adjustment, too.  Alex flat out said Jay's offense is similar from Andy's -- his quote was they are both Latin based languages or something like that.   To me the fact that they are both learning new offenses makes at least that component of the comparison as apples to apples as it can get. 

 

I agree with your overall point that we should give Alex some more games.    I am just saying so far its been underwhelming from Alex -- and I noticed even some of his ardent off season supporters on twitter are starting to acknowledge it.  Having said that, it gives me no satisfaction.  I hope it's about to change.  And I am not ruling out that it will change.   I am open still.  But I haven't liked what I've seen so far.  Maybe the next chapter is better.

[DJHJR86]

27 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

 

For example, I'd compare 2018 Cousins to 2017 Keenum...they are both about the same age with about the same experience and it's year 1 in the Vikings offense. That's what I was trying to do for Smith and Cousins. Granted, the OC in Minnesota is different, so it's not a perfect comparison either. 

 

Otherwise there are too many variables...

 

Why not compare Alex Smith's 2nd year under Andy Reid to Patrick Mahomes?

 

Smith: 9 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 63.98% completion, 6.83 AY/A, 1270 yards, 91 passer rating.

Mahomes: 18 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, 63.68% completion, 9.65 AY/A, 1865 yards, 112.2 passer rating.

[wit33]

Just get us to 10 wins Alex and team. At bats in playoffs is all it takes in today’s NFL. Expectation of playoffs is left for the elite QBs in the game, for rest of league—-scrap and appreciate opportunities to be in playoffs. 

 

Its no longer 70s, 80s and 90s where teams dominate for an extended period of time (exception the Pats) due to other teams having a lack of resources. Incredibly fickle game today. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just listening to Hoffman right now.  He always seem to be echoing things he's heard so I pay more attention to him. He was saying he's heard Alex is struggling thus far reading coverages.  I've heard enough now from enough people to know the people in that building aren't blown away by Alex's start and have some concerns.  Some concern that Dallas gets to him early and he will have happy feet in the pocket.

 

Hoffman mentioned this play specifically -- the one where Alex got sacked to take them out of field goal range before the half and how Richardson was open.  I just looked at it.  Wow.  Look at the time he had.  And he still doesn't pull the trigger.  He has plenty of space to throw the ball, he has two guys wide open for first downs, Reed streaking down the field for a possible touchdown.  Instead he hesitates and runs right into the Carolina D line in front of him.

 

 

 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Throw read progression out the window, that’s egregious to take a sack there.  Yikes.

[bh32]

There is just no excuse for the way Smith is playing..After looking at the above picture i see no way that that the Redskins beat the Cowboys unless Smith does a complete 180.

[Skinsinparadise]

29 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Throw read progression out the window, that’s egregious to take a sack there.  Yikes.

 

Yeah looking at that, its awful.  That's the 2nd time I heard he was just starring right at Richardson but mysteriously didn't throw to him.  So I figured I'd take a look.   And that was a key play in the game.  If they converted that, we likely wouldn't be biting our nails for that Carolina drive at the end

 

This play not as bad.  But it ends up a sack fumble bailed out by Trent. It plays into Benoit's point about now throwing with anticipation.   Alex has more time at the outset of the play.  But he moved forward waiting for guys to get open,  But if you fling it you get receivers getting past the corners.  You got Jordan Reed open and heck even if he went check down he might have gotten the first down.  I mentioned it here when Cooley did his film review of Alex last off season part of it is in his view Alex runs into pressure too much and takes sacks he shouldn't have. 

 

[MisterPinstripe]

Here are some offensive stats through week 5. We are doing well in a lot of facets which surprised me, not sure what to make of it currently. Again this isnt updated for the game against the Panthers. Our starting field position is one of the worst in the league.

 

Team	Drives	Yds/Dr	Pts/Dr	TOs/Dr	INT/Dr	FUM/Dr	Field Position/Dr	Plays/Dr	TOP/Dr	DSR
LAR	49	49.63   (1)	3.20   (3)	.102   (8)	.082 (16)	.020   (8)	30.02   (8)	6.67   (1)	3:09   (3)	.818   (1)
KC	49	42.33   (2)	3.29   (2)	.061   (2)	.041   (7)	.020   (7)	28.00 (16)	6.55   (3)	3:04   (5)	.808   (2)
NO	52	41.37   (3)	3.46   (1)	.096   (7)	.000   (1)	.096 (31)	31.79   (1)	6.40   (5)	3:06   (4)	.805   (3)
TB	45	38.64   (4)	2.36   (9)	.200 (31)	.156 (32)	.044 (16)	25.62 (31)	5.62 (25)	2:37 (21)	.733 (11)
CIN	50	37.82   (5)	2.66   (4)	.160 (27)	.140 (31)	.020   (6)	28.62 (14)	6.28   (6)	2:55 (11)	.772   (4)
LAC	54	37.35   (6)	2.57   (5)	.074   (3)	.037   (6)	.037 (13)	31.69   (2)	5.89 (22)	2:57   (8)	.743   (6)
ATL	54	37.17   (7)	2.46   (6)	.056   (1)	.037   (5)	.019   (4)	27.69 (19)	6.06 (18)	2:43 (17)	.743   (5)
WAS	40	36.20   (8)	2.10 (12)	.125 (16)	.050   (9)	.075 (27)	25.90 (27)	6.65   (2)	3:10   (2)	.739   (7)
OAK	58	35.21   (9)	1.72 (24)	.155 (26)	.138 (30)	.017   (3)	26.64 (23)	5.98 (20)	2:50 (13)	.690 (24)
CHI	41	35.12 (10)	2.37   (8)	.122 (14)	.073 (14)	.049 (18)	27.78 (18)	6.41   (4)	3:11   (1)	.737   (9)
HOU	59	34.95 (11)	1.85 (20)	.136 (19)	.085 (18)	.051 (19)	30.93   (5)	6.27   (7)	2:42 (18)	.707 (17)
JAX	57	34.65 (12)	1.65 (26)	.211 (32)	.123 (28)	.088 (29)	26.39 (24)	6.14 (11)	2:40 (19)	.697 (22)
SF	56	34.05 (13)	2.04 (15)	.196 (30)	.125 (29)	.071 (25)	24.12 (32)	6.16   (9)	2:47 (16)	.738   (8)
MIN	57	33.63 (14)	1.72 (25)	.123 (15)	.035   (4)	.088 (30)	25.88 (28)	6.07 (17)	2:39 (20)	.701 (19)
GB	58	33.47 (15)	1.90 (19)	.121 (13)	.034   (2)	.086 (28)	27.14 (21)	6.21   (8)	2:49 (15)	.703 (18)
DET	54	33.44 (16)	2.19 (11)	.130 (17)	.111 (25)	.019   (5)	30.31   (7)	6.11 (12)	2:49 (14)	.721 (13)

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, MisterPinstripe said:

Here are some offensive stats through week 5. We are doing well in a lot of facets which surprised me, not sure what to make of it currently. Again this isnt updated for the game against the Panthers. Our starting field position is one of the worst in the league.

 

)

 

I gather the Carolina game will likely have an impact on it.

 

Passing game -- yards #27, yds per attempt #23, yds per game #24.

 

Running game -- been up and down but when its hot its hot.  #12 in yds per game. 

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Just listening to Hoffman right now.  He always seem to be echoing things he's heard so I pay more attention to him. He was saying he's heard Alex is struggling thus far reading coverages.  I've heard enough now from enough people to know the people in that building aren't blown away by Alex's start and have some concerns.  Some concern that Dallas gets to him early and he will have happy feet in the pocket.

 

Hoffman mentioned this play specifically -- the one where Alex got sacked to take them out of field goal range before the half and how Richardson was open.

 

 

 

 

Alex has appeared to not read coverages well or throw guys open, buuuut

 

How is Richardson considered to be open on this play? There’s no way a safety isn’t over the top, but picture cuts him out. “9” guys in the picture. This is reaching. I’m positive there’s better examples lol

 

Whats the down, distance, and time in this situation? Underneath routes would’ve led to a 53-55 yard FG depending on situation.

[cphil006]

Where was the first down marker in that pic?  

[Temper11]

5 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

The even worse look for Smith is how good KC is looking with Mahomes.  He's already one touchdown away from what Smith is projected for the entire year. 

 

ok... well, mahomes right now looks better than every quarterback that has ever played the position so...