Let's All Get Behind Alex Smith! Or Not!! (M.E.T.) NO kirk talk---that goes in ATN forum

[JoggingGod]

As much as I don’t like Smith I think a coach that can actually dial up to his strengths would benefit him. That’s why I’m banging on the table for them to hire  a Reid disciple.

[Morneblade]

1 minute ago, JoggingGod said:

As much as I don’t like Smith I think a coach that can actually dial up to his strengths would benefit him. That’s why I’m banging on the table for them to hire  a Reid disciple.

 

Is that really worth it? Smith is a average QB that is conservative. He's "won" because he was surrounded with a great RB and great defenses.

[JoggingGod]

17 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

Is that really worth it? Smith is a average QB that is conservative. He's "won" because he was surrounded with a great RB and great defenses.

Idk I just really ****ing want John DeFilippo here. He’s a JMU alumni too so he has Virginia ties.

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, JoggingGod said:

Idk I just really ****ing want John DeFilippo here. He’s a JMU alumni too so he has Virginia ties.

 I am not pushing a coaching change. But to play along I read an interview where DeFlippo said his top criteria to go to a team is good ownership and a stable FO.  I'd think it would make him think twice about coming here.

[JoggingGod]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 I am not pushing a coaching change. But to play along I read an interview where DeFlippo said his top criteria to go to a team is good ownership and a stable FO.  I'd think it would make him think twice about coming here.

 

Kyle Smith is said to be a respected executive so maybe him as GM may be enough to lure him over.

[Renegade7]

56 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

As much as I don’t like Smith I think a coach that can actually dial up to his strengths would benefit him. That’s why I’m banging on the table for them to hire  a Reid disciple.

I get that we're stuck with the dude for at least three years, but no way in God's Green Earth do I want us to build our team around him.  That's not why he's here, he's a place holder to keep us competitive until we find our next franchise QB.  If we do end up with a new coach, the first thing they should be allowed to do is draft their QB to fit their system.  A smart coach will also know how to play to Alex strengths, I would never target that.

[JoggingGod]

41 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

I get that we're stuck with the dude for at least three years, but no way in God's Green Earth do I want us to build our team around him.  That's not why he's here, he's a place holder to keep us competitive until we find our next franchise QB.  If we do end up with a new coach, the first thing they should be allowed to do is draft their QB to fit their system.  A smart coach will also know how to play to Alex strengths, I would never target that.

Yeah that’s what I mean. But Gruden isn’t getting it done regardless. Team cannot play more than one half a game and his staff is awful now that McVay is gone.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, Renegade7 said:

I get that we're stuck with the dude for at least three years, but no way in God's Green Earth do I want us to build our team around him.  That's not why he's here, he's a place holder to keep us competitive until we find our next franchise QB.  If we do end up with a new coach, the first thing they should be allowed to do is draft their QB to fit their system.  A smart coach will also know how to play to Alex strengths, I would never target that.

 

I thought we brought Smith over because Cousins wasn't good enough and Smith was the guy to get us over the hump and, you know, win now? At least that is what the FO was saying. Great roster and all that?

 

But yeah, absolutely should not build a team around a 35 year old QB that has at best, been pretty decent.

[Renegade7]

1 minute ago, Morneblade said:

 

I thought we brought Smith over because Cousins wasn't good enough and Smith was the guy to get us over the hump and, you know, win now? At least that is what the FO was saying. Great roster and all that?

 

But yeah, absolutely should not build a team around a 35 year old QB that has at best, been pretty decent.

 

We need to nominate someone as the Larry Michael translator.  

[justice98]

2 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Is that really worth it? Smith is a average QB that is conservative. He's "won" because he was surrounded with a great RB and great defenses.

 

I dont know if that's really true though.  More often than not, he's had a good RB, but he did just as well when his backs were Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.  I feel comfortable in saying 32 yr old AP is as good as either of them in their prime.  Ability to run it has always been in Smith's favor is probably a more accurate way to put it.  He didnt necessarily need a great RB, per se.  

 

And he's had bad defenses as much as he had good ones.  Like last year, for example, they were awful on defense.  They were worse in KC than we were.

[Morneblade]

25 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

I dont know if that's really true though.  More often than not, he's had a good RB, but he did just as well when his backs were Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware.  I feel comfortable in saying 32 yr old AP is as good as either of them in their prime.  Ability to run it has always been in Smith's favor is probably a more accurate way to put it.  He didnt necessarily need a great RB, per se.  

 

And he's had bad defenses as much as he had good ones.  Like last year, for example, they were awful on defense.  They were worse in KC than we were.

 

I really dislike when people keep repeating the same 'ole incorrect information.

Last year KC was 15th in points (and that is ultimately what matters). We were 27th. And comparitively that was bad (it would be good for us!) compared to what he was used to.

2016 they were 7th in points.

2015 3rd in points

2014 2nd in points

2013 5th in points

Ok, now in San Fran

2012 2nd in points (year he was benched)

2011 2nd in points

2010 16th in points (holy ****, finally a average year!)

2009 4th in points

2008 23rd in points (this is the Alex shoulder injury year)

2007 20th in points (Alex split time with Trent Dilfer, and was terrible)

2006 32nd in points (Alex was terrible)

2005 30th in points (Alex was terrible, but he was a rookie)

 

So, when Alex had a good defense, he looked good. When he didn't, he didn't. And I didn't even go into having Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt running the ball.

 

When was the last time we had a top 5 D in points allowed? Alex has had 4 in the last 9 years. And one just outside the top 5 in 2016.

So tell me, how Alex has had just as many bad defenses as good ones, and was a good QB when he had bad ones?

 

 

 

[justice98]

1 hour ago, Morneblade said:

 

I really dislike when people keep repeating the same 'ole incorrect information.

Last year KC was 15th in points (and that is ultimately what matters). We were 27th. And comparitively that was bad (it would be good for us!) compared to what he was used to.

2016 they were 7th in points.

2015 3rd in points

2014 2nd in points

2013 5th in points

Ok, now in San Fran

2012 2nd in points (year he was benched)

2011 2nd in points

2010 16th in points (holy ****, finally a average year!)

2009 4th in points

2008 23rd in points (this is the Alex shoulder injury year)

2007 20th in points (Alex split time with Trent Dilfer, and was terrible)

2006 32nd in points (Alex was terrible)

2005 30th in points (Alex was terrible, but he was a rookie)

 

So, when Alex had a good defense, he looked good. When he didn't, he didn't. And I didn't even go into having Frank Gore and Jamaal Charles and Kareem Hunt running the ball.

 

When was the last time we had a top 5 D in points allowed? Alex has had 4 in the last 9 years. And one just outside the top 5 in 2016.

So tell me, how Alex has had just as many bad defenses as good ones, and was a good QB when he had bad ones?

 

 

 

 

I'm using yards, which is usually what defensive rankings are based on. It's a different data point than you, but it's not incorrect.  

 

In his career, he basically had an average or better defense (in yards allowed) in 2009, 2010, 2011, 2014, and 2015.  Bottom third of the league every other year. 

 

And in KC, they were 2nd in TO margin every year but one, I believe.  It's amazing how few points you give up on defense when your QB doesnt turn the ball over.  Dont turn the ball over, make the defense drive the field to do anything.  We were actually better than them in yards per play given up on defense last year (we were 19th, they were 26th).  And they were dead last in first downs allowed per game, we were 14th.  That's just last year, but the point is, strictly going by points is not telling the whole picture.  I could break this down for every year, but it's late and I just dont feel like it.  

 

He's surprisingly consistent regardless of what's surrounding him.  Good defense, bad defense, good running backs, not so good running backs, he's basically the same guy no matter what.  2017 being an outlier, but otherwise, his numbers dont really fluctuate that much.

 

He's basically doing what Alex Smith does.  

[DJHJR86]

That 1st quarter was easily Smith's best as a Skin.  I loved seeing throws to receivers who weren't wide open.  I also loved how he distributed the ball early on.  Then, yet again, the offense fell flat in the 2nd half.  Good thing our defense stepped up, because that game got waaaay to close for comfort at the end.

[Playaction2Sanders]

Its crazy the fact that he's on pace to throw for the 2nd most yards of his career....Still with no production from our WR's and with a gameplan featuring just our TE's we beat Carolina.. On to Dallas...

[Skinsinparadise]

8 hours ago, JoggingGod said:

 

Kyle Smith is said to be a respected executive so maybe him as GM may be enough to lure him over.

 

Dan would have to fire or reassign Bruce.  Part of me thinks its possible.  Another part of me thinks, I'd gather he'd have to be pushed kicking and screaming by fan unrest to do that.   His preferred GMs seem to be people he's personally/socially close with.  Kyle doesn't strike me as the type who will buddy up with Dan.  But I do think its possible.  i think its more likely Eric Schaffer who has that personal bond with Dan from what I hear.   But just the nature of everything I am saying here might make Deflippo pause.  Dan is unpredictable and volatile.  So if a stable FO and good ownership floats his boat -- doubt Redskins would be on his short list.  However, money talks so you never know.  Hopefully we have a good season and we don't have to deal with it at all. 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

He's basically doing what Alex Smith does.  

 

 

In KC they had a top 10 running game every season but one, and that one season it was 15th.  The passing game was ranked 24th, 29th, 30th.  And then an uptick at the end, 19th and 7th.

 

I think the hope was from people including me that the 2017 season wasn't an outlier but the new norm.  They did have their best running game yet then. 

 

The dude is ranked 21st in QBR, though his QBR numbers are similar to his career numbers including in KC.  Again the exception was last year where it was about 10 points better than that.

 

I hope we see better from the dude because of this is who he is, he's a much bigger downgrade than I expected.  And I'd look heavy in the draft, I haven't really delved into Herbert, Grier, Lock, etc but have watched them some.   Unless you have big time games from your running backs, I don't see how you even have a shot at the SB with that type of play at QB. 

 

To me he comes off as a so so QB who doesn't make many mistakes.    And while I see the value in tight games where you have other things going for you to have a QB that isn't going to blow it up.  There is limits to that.  And it brings home what some who covered him in KC said which is he rarely will win games in shoot outs or mount come backs with an occasional exception.

 

I am sticking to though its early and hopefully we will see better.  But if this is more or less him -- "meh".  Don't hate it, don't love it.  But I would hate it in the context of how we got to this place.

[method man]

Why not call for more split back formations with both Thompson and Bibbs on 3rd downs? Could have both run routes in the flats. Unlikely teams have 2 backers capable enough in coverage to cover both

[TD_washingtonredskins]

On 10/12/2018 at 4:50 PM, oraphus said:

Gruden himself said that he was considering benching Smith for Mccoy with 6min left in the game. look it up.

Through 4 weeks Smith has had 2 OK games, 1 bad game and one AWFUL game where he looked like a 1st year rookie against a D that was lit up by every other team and was missing its best corner.

If Gruden already considered benching Smith in week 5, how long do you think he will wait if Smith has another awful game?.. considering Grudens job is very much on the line this year.

And NO... you dont need a lot more time to say this was a bad get.. since FO mentioned several times that bringing in Smith was not a rebuilding project and that a veteran QB is expected to play well right away.

 

I think 6 minutes to go in a blowout is a different kind of benching, if we're being honest. Unless Gruden alluded to starting McCoy in a game, then it's all about taking starters out when the outcome is decided and you don't want injuries. 

[Morneblade]

6 hours ago, justice98 said:

 

He's basically doing what Alex Smith does.  

 

I'm not going to argue that. I think he is. It's just very unimpressive for what we're paying him, and what we let go to get him. He is a dutiful game manager.

 

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

In KC they had a top 10 running game every season but one, and that one season it was 15th.  The passing game was ranked 24th, 29th, 30th.  And then an uptick at the end, 19th and 7th.

 

I think the hope was from people including me that the 2017 season wasn't an outlier but the new norm.  They did have their best running game yet then. 

 

The dude is ranked 21st in QBR, though his QBR numbers are similar to his career numbers including in KC.  Again the exception was last year where it was about 10 points better than that.

 

I hope we see better from the dude because of this is who he is, he's a much bigger downgrade than I expected.  And I'd look heavy in the draft, I haven't really delved into Herbert, Grier, Lock, etc but have watched them some.   Unless you have big time games from your running backs, I don't see how you even have a shot at the SB with that type of play at QB. 

 

To me he comes off as a so so QB who doesn't make many mistakes.    And while I see the value in tight games where you have other things going for you to have a QB that isn't going to blow it up.  There is limits to that.  And it brings home what some who covered him in KC said which is he rarely will win games in shoot outs or mount come backs with an occasional exception.

 

I am sticking to though its early and hopefully we will see better.  But if this is more or less him -- "meh".  Don't hate it, don't love it.  But I would hate it in the context of how we got to this place.

 

This is exactly who he is. As you said, his QBR are similar to KC, the uptick you saw was due to Reid and Hill, not Smith. I think the only improvements we see is that he is more accurate. Because even yesterday he was terrible. He was high, behind and was not getting many passes on this targets. He's usually better than that. Otherwise..................he had one more pass over 10 yards than he had behind the LOS yesterday. That is Alex Smith.

 

2 hours ago, method man said:

Why not call for more split back formations with both Thompson and Bibbs on 3rd downs? Could have both run routes in the flats. Unlikely teams have 2 backers capable enough in coverage to cover both

 

So, we don't have enough check downs already?

[Skinsinparadise]

22 minutes ago, Morneblade said:

 

This is exactly who he is. As you said, his QBR are similar to KC, the uptick you saw was due to Reid and Hill, not Smith. I think the only improvements we see is that he is more accurate. Because even yesterday he was terrible. He was high, behind and was not getting many passes on this targets. He's usually better than that. Otherwise..................he had one more pass over 10 yards than he had behind the LOS yesterday. That is Alex Smith.

 

 

Yeah and I get the argument that if you have a really good defense and or great running game -- he's a guy that helps you ride that wave because he's not going to blow it up -- see Blake Bortles.  However, I think you have a ceiling with a QB like that unless you have a killer running game and or defense.  I think the defense is much improved and Peterson is quite the find.    But I don't think other unit is killer enough to be a serious challenge for the big dance -- eventually you are going to have to beat teams with QBs who both can sling the ball around and also avoid mistakes.

 

My beef with the deal was threefold:  1. Teams simply don't downgrade at QB let alone downgrade and get older.  2.  At 34, some (not all) QBs start to lose it especially those that rely on their athleticism and if not right away maybe around 36.  3.  I don't think the rest of the roster is killer enough to justify a win now movie which in my view you are running with anytime you trade for a QB in their mid 30s.   None of what I've seen thus far has assuaged me on any of it.  Aside from one point which is maybe this is a down NFC East year type like 2015 where we can sneak into the playoffs.  But for me even if we do that, they got to win one playoff game otherwise what would be that new about it.  We sneak in every 3-4 years, it wouldn't be that extraordinary to sneak in with a record below 11-5 and then get knocked out. 

[Temper11]

16 hours ago, Alexa said:

The Smith fan boys crack me up. 21 completions for 160 yards. lol,   Today was all about AP and getting some turnovers. Not about Alex Smith. Not going to win a lot of games with the way the passing game is right now.  

 

Smith fan-boi here... This is not the Smith you can expect. He's much better than this.   KCity trolls will tell you this is who he is, they are trolling.   He's much better than this.   I don't know why,  but he doesn't seem to trust his protection or his receivers yet.  Needs to figure it out quick.   Divisional games are gonna be huge.   You may not love his style of play... even when he's playing his game, but you've only seen it a couple of times this year so far.  He isn't himself yet. 

[Morneblade]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Yeah and I get the argument that if you have a really good defense and or great running game -- he's a guy that helps you ride that wave because he's not going to blow it up -- see Blake Bortles.  However, I think you have a ceiling with a QB like that unless you have a killer running game and or defense.  I think the defense is much improved and Peterson is quite the find.    But I don't think other unit is killer enough to be a serious challenge for the big dance -- eventually you are going to have to beat teams with QBs who both can sling the ball around and also avoid mistakes.

 

My beef with the deal was threefold:  1. Teams simply don't downgrade at QB let alone downgrade and get older.  2.  At 34, some (not all) QBs start to lose it especially those that rely on their athleticism and if not right away maybe around 36.  3.  I don't think the rest of the roster is killer enough to justify a win now movie which in my view you are running with anytime you trade for a QB in their mid 30s.   None of what I've seen thus far has assuaged me on any of it.  Aside from one point which is maybe this is a down NFC East year type like 2015 where we can sneak into the playoffs.  But for me even if we do that, they got to win one playoff game otherwise what would be that new about it.  We sneak in every 3-4 years, it wouldn't be that extraordinary to sneak in with a record below 11-5 and then get knocked out. 

 

 

I agree, and I'm more pessimistic than you. Right now, I see Peterson as the most important part of our Offense. I think we should tailor the offense around him, not Alex Smith. And if he goes down for any length of time, this team is done. And when you consider how banged up he is right now, that is a real possibility.

 

As positive as people are right now, I don't see this as a playoff team.

 

And people thinking that Alex Smith was some kind of upgrade, I don't know what they were watching all these years. Or maybe they didn't watch him, I don't know. But he's never impressed me.

 

With what I've seen this year so far, we have 3 game in which AP has looked like the old AP. We've won all the of those games. We've had 2 games in which AP was a complete non factor, and only had 15 carries total, and we had no chance.

 

As for Alex, he's been good in, 1 game, ok in 2 and bad in 2. In his good game, AP was also good, and we won. We split his "ok" games and his bad games. The games we won in both cases? AP was on it. The losses? AP was absent.

[JoeJacobyHOForRIOT]

Lets play the Game manager Game ...Ready

 

Game manager is to Quarterback as Subway Sandwich Artist is to Ice Sculptor 

 

Game manager is to Quarterback as CNN is to real news

 

Game manager is to Quarterback as O'doul's is to Heineken

[wit33]

Alex Smith running the football himself was a huge contributing factor to KC being a top 10 rushing attack. If you attach average QB rushing yards to his rushing totals KC becomes an average rushing team statistically over the past 5 years. The three years Alex had high rushing yardage totals from QB position KC was top 10 in rushing.

 

KC top 10 rushing yardage years Alex rushed for:

 

2013— 431 yards (6th in QB rushing)

2015— 498 yards (4th in QB rushing)

2017— 355 yards (6th in QB rushing)

 

KC outside of top 10 yardage years Alex rusher for:

 

**2014— 254 yards (8th in QB rushing) Team finished 11th

2016— 154 yards (17th in QB rushing) Team finished 19th

 

I continue to be underwhelmed with his QB play to date, especially in 3rd and 6 or longer. Zero confidence in Skins converting at this point. With that said, I value greatly what his legs do to extend plays/drives and believe it will be a huge reason why Skins will finish top 10 in rushing this season. It’d be nice to marry a top rushing attack with an average passing game (passing game is poor at the moment). This is the formula needed to provide an identity and consistency, in my early view of season. If this happens, it could be a really good season.

[goskins10]

 

I almost started a new thread but not sure it's worth it. Was afraid it would digress into a **** session. We already have enough of those. But if we are going to compare Kirk to Alex, the best is Kirk last year vs. Alex this year. That's when they had the closest to the same team around them. Is it perfect? Of course not. But it's better than comparing Alex here to Kirk in Minnesota. Hopefully we can all agree MN has better overall talent. If not, I just cannot help you. maybe you should start watching tennis. 

 

Anyway, Kirk has the overall edge in most categories but he is not blowing Alex away. There is one category that Alex is leading in that's pretty damn important - last year after 5 gms the record was 2-3. This year 3-2. I totally get the D is better - or at least playing better. But if you look at the D last year coming out of KC, the numbers were very similar. That's when the injuries started happening. It's kind of interesting. 

 

Not sure it makes any statement. I am sure those wanting to believe Kirk is much better will find ways the data say that. Those wanting to say Alex is no worse will believe that and try to make that case. 

 

For me, it's looks pretty close in many areas. There are a few that are noticeably different in Kirk's favor:  

 

TDs - You could argue that's because there is a better running game and the RBs are getting a few more TDs. Last year Kirk led all runners in TDs with 4. Not a good stat. Right now we have 5 rushing TDs so far. Last year the team had 10 all year, including Kirk's 4. I did not look to see exactly how many rushing TDs after 5 gms but I would guess it's less than 5, and Kirk had one of those as Alex has one this year. 

 

Sacks - This is interesting. If the ints were different you could make the case he is taking more sacks to keep the ints down. I think that's the case, but Kirk was pretty good on both. And Alex actually has 1 more than Kirk at the same time last year. Maybe that's a line issue? The line didn't start getting banged up until a few more games in last year. But when it did it was crazy. 

 

Rushing YDs - more the yds/carry. Alex is supposed to be more mobile which I would see as more rushing atts (yes), with more efficiency since it should be more when things break down. I was saying last year I thought Kirk should run more. He threw some bad passes when he had 10 - 15 yds in front of him. 

 

What's really interesting is that Alex has more attempts than Kirk at this time. I have not checked but I wonder if that's due to more possessions - the D getting the ball back more. Any way, there is a lot more dissection that can be done. But here are the raw numbers. 

 

 

I plan to update this each week for my own amusement. Will post in case anyone is interested.