PleaseBlitz

Election 2018 Thread (An Adult Finally Has the Gavel)

Recommended Posts

15 minutes ago, justice98 said:

So what do we think of a million new voters in Florida n 2020 and beyond now that felons can vote?  How will that play out?  The difference in 2016 and now in 2018 between winning and losing has been a hair's width.

 

My guess is the vast, vast majority of them won't bother to vote... participation rates lower than the citizenry at large.  But it would be interesting to see some data on how many choose to vote. I

 

I do see the argument for them having their rights restored once they've paid their debt for their crimes.  Whether they exercise that right is another matter.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, mistertim said:

So what should the Dem/liberal approach be to get rural voters?

 

I don't know how much good it will do because much of it is emotional and xenophobic, but they have to absolutely completely take away the economic argument.

 

Every single democratic campaign should repeatedly hammer home the message that tax cuts to the wealthy do not cause long term economic growth.  The Trump tax cut is not directly the cause for the current economy.  They are practicing Keynesian economics and by cutting taxes they are increasing deficit spending.

 

Reagan did the same thing.  Trickle down economics does not work.

 

During non-election periods, the DNC should be running national ads (on Fox News if Fox News will take it) saying that.  By not repeatedly and boldly putting the face to that lie, you at least allow people to rationalize their vote.

 

In these areas, getting bogged down into things like free health care for all and college or other detailed social programs is a mistake.  Keep it simple.  They want to cut taxes to the wealthy.  They claim it grows the economy, but it really doesn't.  All they are doing is adding to the debt, while making it harder for you to improve your life.

 

As long as the economy is doing well and Trump is seen as having improved the economy, the Republicans are going to do well.  And now if (really, when) the economy slows, Trump is going to blame the House and the Democrats.  The Democrats must get out in front of that nationally and everywhere not just in rural America, but certainly, especially in rural America.

  • Like 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

According to an article I read this past weekend (maybe Vox) there is no political party advantage when felons get their voting rights restored.  The Manatee County GOP endorsed restoring the right to vote, so that should tell you something.

 

What's the demo of those felons though? I'd find it hard to believe that if say 70+% of them were minority, it would have no effect.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

The left needs to accept and then figure out how to change this fact-  There is a huge percentage of people who hate their ****ing guts for no good reason.  But they still hate them.  Bill Maher is one of the few people on the left trying to get this point across.

I don't know how you change that. They like the policies but can't vote for the party advocating for the policies. Look at MO. Passed all sorts of progressive ballot initiatives but still elected a guy suing to dismantle their healthcare. How do you appeal to that?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Dan T. said:

 

My guess is the vast, vast majority of them won't bother to vote... participation rates lower than the citizenry at large.  But it would be interesting to see some data on how many choose to vote. I

 

I do see the argument for them having their rights restored once they've paid their debt for their crimes.  Whether they exercise that right is another matter.

 

Perhaps, but if these margins in Florida continue to be razor thin, just using the million number, if you got 10% to vote, that could be the difference.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, The Evil Genius said:

Pelosi will get Speaker again but I hope like hell they groom Joe Kennedy and other younger members to take over in the near future. She's an effective leader but she's also to easilyy a target for GOP campaigns.

I want Barbara Lee.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

When it comes to rural voters I get the whole "insulting people won't get them to like you" idea. I really do. I just don't think it's as simple as that when it comes to them being willing to vote for a Democrat/liberal. I think there's such a right wing echo chamber, there's been such a radicalization of the right, and so many people telling them over and over about how many awful, evil, godless things the left wants to force on them and how they want to basically exterminate white culture that we could literally give them daily affirmations about how great they are, bake them pies, and (honestly) listen to every single word they said in order to understand their issues, then explain how we want to help them solve those issues...and it still wouldn't even make a dent when it comes to voting.

 

It's unfortunate because, as @skinsfanfrombirthhas been saying, places like rural Appalachia are suffering immensely and yet they keep electing people who push policies that at best ignore their situation and at worst actively hurt them more. So I hate to say "ignore them, they're lost causes" because as human beings they're not, and they matter (even if there are some big time racists among them). But as voters I think they really might be.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, Cooked Crack said:

 

 

Similar results in VA with massive rural turnout and Stewart winning 200k more votes than Warner did in 2014. 

 

Last night sucked. Look, Dems flipped the House and did really well in a lot of races. There’s a check on Trump now. But more than anything, last night showed us what our new political reality is. Rural turnout for Republicans in the Trump era, combined with House gerrymandering and the inherent structural advantage of the Senate, is going to make it REALLY challenging if not impossible for Democrats to hold control of the government for the foreseeable future. We are facing permanent minority rule in the country. 

 

Random thoughts, no order.

 

Democrats probably lost the 2020 senate race last night. Too many seats to flip. 

 

A Trump re-election in 2020 is more possible than I thought before. Dems may pull within 2-5% in OH, FL, TX and win CA by 30%. You could legitimately see Trump lose the popular vote by somewhere between 5-10% and still have enough electoral votes to get over the hump. This is a really bad situation. 

 

Even if Dems take the WH in 2020, will McConnell fill a SCOTUS seat for Ginsberg’s replacement (assuming she can hang in there for two more years)? I’m not sure he will. And there’s not a thing Democrats will be able to do about it. This is a really bad situation. 

 

TL;DR- our system of government is totally and completely ****ed. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

 

What's the demo of those felons though? I'd find it hard to believe that if say 70+% of them were minority, it would have no effect.

Not sure, but even DeSantis supported it.  That doesnt happen if it would be an obvious aide to the Dems

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

You aren't going to get those rural votes. They aren't just ignorant if not downright stupid, they take pride in it. They like living in the muck and are only happy when they have liberals to blame for their problems. The key for Dems is to get the moderate Republican votes. I think they did a decent job of that this election but more work needs to be done.

 

Last night was a good night for the Dems, but it was a little disappointing that we weren't able to win at least one of the really emotional hot ticket races(Beto, Gillum, etc.). Still, we took the House over and we weren't expected to win the Senate. Its progress.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Pelosi needs to hand the gavel off to the new generation.  She is probably second only to Hillary Clinton in the "people hate her, but don't really know why they hate her"  category.  Her name seems to be associated with every GOP re-election campaign regardless of her having nothing to do nor any effect on their local precincts. It would be hilarious if it wasn't so effective. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

 

Similar results in VA with massive rural turnout and Stewart winning 200k more votes than Warner did in 2014. 

 

Last night sucked. Look, Dems flipped the House and did really well in a lot of races. There’s a check on Trump now. But more than anything, last night showed us what our new political reality is. Rural turnout for Republicans in the Trump era, combined with House gerrymandering and the inherent structural advantage of the Senate, is going to make it REALLY challenging if not impossible for Democrats to hold control of the government for the foreseeable future. We are facing permanent minority rule in the country. 

 

Random thoughts, no order.

 

Democrats probably lost the 2020 senate race last night. Too many seats to flip. 

 

A Trump re-election in 2020 is more possible than I thought before. Dems may pull within 2-5% in OH, FL, TX and win CA by 30%. You could legitimately see Trump lose the popular vote by somewhere between 5-10% and still have enough electoral votes to get over the hump. This is a really bad situation. 

 

Even if Dems take the WH in 2020, will McConnell fill a SCOTUS seat for Ginsberg’s replacement (assuming she can hang in there for two more years)? I’m not sure he will. And there’s not a thing Democrats will be able to do about it. This is a really bad situation. 

 

TL;DR- our system of government is totally and completely ****ed. 

This is a spot on analysis.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, The Evil Genius said:

Pelosi will get Speaker again but I hope like hell they groom Joe Kennedy and other younger members to take over in the near future. She's an effective leader but she's also to easilyy a target for GOP campaigns.

 

I'm with you on the need for new blood in leadership positions.  Here's the thing though.  The GOP and its media partners will demonize ANY Democrat who holds a leadership position.  They've managed to turn Pelosi into a dirty word through a years long smear campaign against her.  Dave Brat ran against Nancy Pelosi in Virginia until his opponent had to say, um, my name is Abigail Spanberger. (Which, in this case didn't work, because now she is his representative in Congress.)

 

That same smear machine will crank up for anybody else who assumes a leadership position.

Edited by Dan T.
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

One of the best outcomes is that Adam Schiff will take over for weasel/toady Devin Nunes as chairman of the House Intelligence Committee.

Edited by Dan T.
  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The way the GOP has been able to seize control of most of the Government despite lessening actual support from the people is the most worrisome thing.  I understand our system was setup with protecting the minority against the majority in mind, and for good reason, but fast forward to present time and it feels like what was originally a well intended system design, has turned into a way for the minority to rule over the majority, which also should not be happening.  

 

Of course it never helps that "record turnout" still ends up as a pathetic amount of people voting % wise.

Edited by NoCalMike
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Dan T. said:

One of the best outcomes is that Adam Schiff will take over for weasel/toady Devin Nunes as chairman of the House Judiciary Committee.

 

Intel. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

In 2020 the Senate race will have 22 Republican incumbents defending and 12 democratic incumbents. It is essentially the opposite circumstances to this election in regards to the senate, consequently Democrats will be favored as a result.  

 

Last night was objectively a blue wave, any claim contrary to that is disingenuous. A blue wave was expected with the understanding that the Senate was out of reach, and that's exactly what we got. There was effectively no way Democrats could gain the Senate, but they flipped a massive amount of seats in the house as expected, flipped many gubernatorial races, and dramatically changed state legislatures in their favor. 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Important in 2020, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the 3 states that tipped the election in 2016, all elected Democrat senators and governors.  

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, skinsfan_1215 said:

A Trump re-election in 2020 is more possible than I thought before.

 

It seems to me the left was finding ways to thump their chest about last night, but I’m seeing things more the way you’ve outlined. 

 

Ive never thought trump had a better chance at reelection that now. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, BenningRoadSkin said:

Also don't let the media spin this. This was a blue wave. 

 

Yeah if you look at the actual national picture, it was...and I think things will keep trending that way. Unfortunately the last 8-10 years of GOP gerrymandering as well as voter suppression tactics, have been very successful. If not for that, Dems probably would have taken back twice as many seats as they did.

 

I hate to admit it but the GOP's long game plan has been very effective. On a national level they know that the public for the most part doesn't want what they're selling as far as actual policies (trickle down tax cuts for corporations, healthcare, etc). They know the public has mostly turned against them in the culture wars (gay marriage, etc). They know they are massively hemorrhaging votes from every single expanding voting bloc in the country (women, minorities) and have very little chance of winning them back. They know they've become a party led by a racist, lying, narcissistic sociopath with zero morals and even less competence. 

 

So what's the solution? Make sure to ensure that they can still rule as the people who get far fewer votes from a national perspective but hold on to power by gerrymandering to keep as many House seats red as possible, suppress minority voting as much as humanly possible at the state level, focus on keeping the Senate, and have a laser-like focus on packing the courts with as many right wing ideologues as possible so that if/when the public does manage to overthrow them it may not necessarily matter because they can just get issues to their packed courts and SCOTUS who will overrule whatever legislation the public favors and their chosen representatives passed.

 

Sad.

  • Like 4

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

Important in 2020, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, the 3 states that tipped the election in 2016, all elected Democrat senators and governors.  

If the census plays out as predicted, the Dem nominee will have to win those 3 states, hold every state Hillary won, and still have to pick off 10-12 more electoral votes.

 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, The Caretaker said:

In 2020 the Senate race will have 22 Republican incumbents defending and 12 democratic incumbents. It is essentially the opposite circumstances to this election in regards to the senate, consequently Democrats will be favored as a result.  

 

Last night was objectively a blue wave, any claim contrary to that is disingenuous. A blue wave was expected with the understanding that the Senate was out of reach, and that's exactly what we got. There was effectively no way Democrats could gain the Senate, but they flipped a massive amount of seats in the house as expected, flipped many gubernatorial races, and dramatically changed state legislatures in their favor. 

The magic number for the GOP from last night was 54.  If they get 54 the Senate will be all but impossible for the Dems to flip even in a landslide Pres election.  The numbers may be similar, but the states represented by those numbers tell the tale.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Kilmer17 said:

If the census plays out as predicted, the Dem nominee will have to win those 3 states, hold every state Hillary won, and still have to pick off 10-12 more electoral votes.

 

 

 

NC could easily turn blue.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rural voters obviously had access to a Minority Report precog in 2016 and made the decision to vote for an obvious conman based on seeing into the future and knowing that a handful of people on ES would rightfully insult them after they demonstrated how (insert any synonym for “easily misled” that you like) they are. It had nothing to do with the GOP spin machine spending 8 years saying whatever the **** they wanted to convince a bunch of weak-minded individuals that liberals are their greatest enemy. 

12 minutes ago, tshile said:

It seems to me the left was finding ways to thump their chest about last night, but I’m seeing things more the way you’ve outlined. 

 

Ive never thought trump had a better chance at reelection that now. 

Agree. It’s a sad day.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.