Jumbo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 8 minutes ago, Bacon said: Estimated 63% chance for Jones now and a 2.3% win despite being down 5% in the vote at the moment. Evidently, Moore is running out of road in the rural areas. hope i'm wrong but given the very informed and complex analytical process by which i've arrived at my prediction (pulling it directly out my ass) i still have moorre by 3-4 pts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
elkabong82 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, Larry said: We're watching a close election. One party is is running a wannabe child molester who has been impeached twice because of his open, flagrant, violation of the constitution. The other is running a law and order candidate whose most damning trait is that he's a Democrat. And your response is "maybe we can create a 3rd party that's rational and isn't immoral"? My response alluded to my belief that there is no way political parties get disbanded, though they should be. So the only option I can see that might actually happen to put BOTH parties in check, instead of just playing off each other's craziness, is a legitimate 3rd option. Because, as you just showed, even when you have a good candidate and a horrible person as the opposition, the race will be close solely because of party affiliation. That absolutely screams the need for more political parties and more voting options/candidates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redskins59 Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Hmm, per NY times Jones has 86% chance of winning. Estimated margin of +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Breitbart’s live feed, summarized in 4 entries: Bannon gives Moore a boost Moore takes early lead Alabamans will probably be glad when NY jornalists (read: jews) leave Silence 538 is saying that Moore is hitting his benchmarks in rural counties in % terms, but turnout is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 7 minutes ago, No Excuses said: The centrist Republican is a dinosaur. Anyone still voting GOP is all in on the crazy train and there is only one way to defeat it. Republicans are now primarily split between the conservatives and the new populists that won last year. There are still some centrists (more than the Dems have). And it looks like Moore is going to lose big. This is would be very good news for the Dems but if it would be great news for the Dems if Moore pulls out the win. Not great news for the Conservative wing of the Republican Party but silver lining is Bannon is greatly weakened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 America is losing right now. 54% of precints reporting. I know nothing about which ones haven’t reported or their demographics, but so far it looks like old white people again the young and minorities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AsburySkinsFan said: America is losing right now. 54% of precints reporting. I know nothing about which ones haven’t reported or their demographics, but so far it looks like old white people again the young and minorities. Dig deeper. This is not looking terrible for Jones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AsburySkinsFan said: America is losing right now. 54% of precints reporting. I know nothing about which ones haven’t reported or their demographics, but so far it looks like old white people again the young and minorities. Still good news for the Dems that Jones looks like he'll win just not the great news for the Dems if Moore had won which would have caused severe damage to the Republican party long term. Just now, PleaseBlitz said: Dig deeper. This is not looking terrible for Jones. I think he wanted Moore to win for the political impact it would have on the Republicans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Tired of the ‘win win’ talk about the Dems. If Moore wins it is a huge ****ing “L” for our country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jumbo Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 i wish people would quit telling me they're christian with an air like it means something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, nonniey said: I think he wanted Moore to win for the political impact it would have on the Republicans. I do too, but either outcome is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 1 minute ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said: Tired of the ‘win win’ talk about the Dems. If Moore wins it is a huge ****ing “L” for our country. Indeed. Progress is a product of action, not time. You can't bet on a future in which electing Roy Moore penalizes the GOP. Moore would be a degradation of a lot of our norms and standards. He is an awful person. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said: Tired of the ‘win win’ talk about the Dems. If Moore wins it is a huge ****ing “L” for our country. I reject Alabama determining much of anything for the country, hell it might be the only state I have no kin in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheGreatBuzz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 4 hours ago, No Excuses said: If the Democrats let Trump nominate any SC judges while holding the Senate, they should all be tarred and feathered every day for the rest of their lives. I'm sorry but I get really upset with this line of thinking. You are suggesting the Left do the exact thing that I (and the rest of us) despise the Right for doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bacon Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 The Upshot estimates at NYT are steadying around 65% for Jones with a 2.8% point lead. It was going wild there for a bit but these things tend to flatten out as more information becomes available. It's going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 5 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said: Tired of the ‘win win’ talk about the Dems. If Moore wins it is a huge ****ing “L” for our country. I agree yet it is still a win-win for the Dems. Why a Moore win is a huge ****ing "L" for the country is that Bannon and the Populists would gain even more power in the Republican party if Moore wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Corcaigh Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Jumbo said: i wish people would quit telling me they're christian with an air like it means something Tell them you don't have a 14 year old daughter , so they should go hunt somewhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 36 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said: Republicans have no principles. That's what's going on. In case voting for Trump wasn't clue enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PleaseBlitz Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, No Excuses said: Indeed. Progress is a product of action, not time. You can't bet on a future in which electing Roy Moore penalizes the GOP. Moore would be a degradation of a lot of our norms and standards. He is an awful person. Progress isnt tactical, it’s strategic. Adding one ****head to the Senate does very little in the short term, but it degrades the R brand and helps Ds win other elections. Maybe you wouldn’t bet on it, I certainly would. Plus, Moore won’t be a rank and file R. He specifically ran againt McConnel. He’s gonna be a ****show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No Excuses Posted December 13, 2017 Author Share Posted December 13, 2017 2 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said: I'm sorry but I get really upset with this line of thinking. You are suggesting the Left do the exact thing that I (and the rest of us) despise the Right for doing. Blame Mitch McConnell. I do not want a Democratic Senate majority voting for Supreme Court judges nominated by a radical Republican President. Maybe once the Democrats draw even on Merrick Garland's stolen seat, we can call it even and carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 39 minutes ago, samy316 said: I don't understand the panic. None of the major cities or counties (Birmingham, Jackson, Montgomery, etc) have come in yet. The fact that it's a 3-5 pt margin with just rural areas reporting so far is BAD for Moore, not Jones. There's still a lot of areas left to decide the outcome. Black turnout was higher than normal too according to exit polls, so I don't understand the freaking out here. I'm still scarred from Trump Night last November. I have no hope left. Just fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nonniey Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 Just now, PleaseBlitz said: Progress isnt tactical, it’s strategic. Adding one ****head to the Senate does very little in the short term, but it degrades the R brand and helps Ds win other elections. Maybe you wouldn’t bet on it, I certainly would. Plus, Moore won’t be a rank and file R. He specifically ran againt McConnel. He’s gonna be a ****show. Wow totally agree with you. Ironic that I'm pulling for the Dem and your pulling for the Republican this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, No Excuses said: The centrist Republican is a dinosaur. Anyone still voting GOP is all in on the crazy train and there is only one way to defeat it. all in on the denial train anyway. they are entirely immune to cognitive dissonance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tshile Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 To my liberal friends entertaining the long term advantage given the dems by Moore winning tonight... May I remind you some liberals voted for trump in the gop primaries using the same logic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Predicto Posted December 13, 2017 Share Posted December 13, 2017 23 minutes ago, elkabong82 said: My response alluded to my belief that there is no way political parties get disbanded, though they should be. So the only option I can see that might actually happen to put BOTH parties in check, instead of just playing off each other's craziness, is a legitimate 3rd option. Because, as you just showed, even when you have a good candidate and a horrible person as the opposition, the race will be close solely because of party affiliation. That absolutely screams the need for more political parties and more voting options/candidates. It won't work. We have discussed this before in multiple threads. Our "first past the post" electoral system is designed for 2 parties. If a third party gets successfull, it either gets absorbed into one of the existing parties, or it replaces it. You would need a constitutional amendment to change our voting structure before third parties possible can remain viable for more than one (maybe 2) elections. 20 minutes ago, nonniey said: Republicans are now primarily split between the conservatives and the new populists that won last year. There are still some centrists (more than the Dems have). You are the best unintentional comedian I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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