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Jay Gruden: Buy, Sell Or HOLD: 2017 edition


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My question to those of the belief that Jay will always be a .500 coach, it's just who he is, and so on folks...

 

Do you believe that he's underachieved with the rosters we've had? 

 

That's what making a coaching change really boils down to.  Where you have a coach that is underachieving and not meeting realistic expectations.

 

2014: A complete and utter mess, from the QB on down. 

I'd say the 4 wins we got were right around where the team was with any head coach.

 

2015: Inserted a new QB into a team with a roster that lacked depth or any level of star power on the defensive side of the ball.

9-7, NFC East champions, after winning 5 in a row to close the season.  Things were going off the rails and then the team caught fire and ran into Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs.

 

2016: Tough schedule, atrocious defensive personnel and coach.

8-7-1.  You can blame him for the hiring of Joe Barry which led a defense that was just awful and folded causing losses.  But did they really underachieve all that much?

 

2017: The hardest schedule in football, including getting some teams at the worst times.  Overwhelming injuries to very key pieces of both the offensive and defensive lines.

5-6 Thus far.  Given the circumstances, is that really underachieving?

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

I... We're being consistent, which is way better that going with the roller coaster some of those teams are going. This team is vastly underrated this year. As is Jay since he camed here.

Yea ... consistently pathetic ... Skins need a new HCoach and a new QB. 

 

This will become abundantly clear over the remaining course of this dismal season.

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4 hours ago, OVCChairman said:

This is big... but I find myself with the inner-turmoil of whether or not Gruden will ever be enough to take us where we want to go.  Can Gruden ever win a Super Bowl?  This season I had more confidence in the direction that the team is looking to be going (obviously depending on the re-signing of key pieces).  You have to walk before you can run... and we're in position to end the season with 3 straight seasons of 8 wins or more... my fear is that Gruden as an HC will always be at or around .500.  He's a really good offensive mind.  Some plays and schemes have proven to be very effective, but his playcalling at times is HS level, and the problems seem to show up at the worst possible times.  I know these 'issues' are not as frequent as it may seem, but they seem like they happen far more often than they should. 

 

All that said leads me to to re-ask the question, do you think Gruden has what it takes to get us to a SB... If the answer is yes, than the consistency is welcomed, he'll continue to progress, and we'll talk again in 3 years.  If the answer is anything other than yes, do you want to hold on for consistency sake with little confidence that the promised land is attainable? 

Yes I would because consistency and stability will actually make this an attractive job. Sign Kirk, give them 3 more years, and then make a decision about the future IMO. That being said, with more pieces, I do think the two of them could take us there. 

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 I've been up and down about Gruden ;  at times, when the really dumb mistakes show up, I'd like him to miss the bus on the way home and get lost.

 Then there are times where I look back and see at least steady progress, and see he's not the typical run run pass punt coach, and it give me reason to pause and give him a chance.

 

 But now, he has seen first hand how injuries affect this team, and him and the FO MUST figure out why, because this isn't the first time this team has had a rash of injuries. My brain only tells me the strength and conditioning coach is high, and has to go; the whole bunch of them.

 Then he HAS to impose his will upon Dan to get Cousins signed [ unless the amount is too ridiculous to comprehend ].

 Then get some key players for help/back-up, i.e.; O-line and RB.

 Last but not least, clean up those damn deer-in-the-headlight moments he has during last 2 minutes of half and final in games.

 

 If he can get these things done, this team will be a contender next season; I can see the injury thing as an excuse [ even though the back-up players kept the team competitive ].  But if it ends up in another mediocre 'we need to try harder' season of post-game speeches, then have someone pack his bags.

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2 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Totally.  I mean with his whole 3.5 seasons experience as a head coach and all...

 

Im still waiting on responses to where he has underachieved given his personnel.

 

 

 

Cuz those Norv teams were stacked with talent, I guess.  Michael Westbrook and Leslie Sheperd on the outside were the Garcon and DJax of their day, Jamie Asher was the Jordan Reed of the late 90s, wasnt he?

 

What's the magic number where you know a guy is mediocre?  4, 6, 8?  

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7 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

What's the magic number where you know a guy is mediocre?  4, 6, 8?  

There is no magic number.  

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't consistently above average every season because Mike Tomlin is a great head coach.  It helps, but they always have the horses.

 

I don't blame you guys though , this franchise has trained you to believe that something better is around the corner for a few decades now.

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If you've grown up during the Snyder era. I don't blame you for thinking we need a new head coach. It's all you know...Recycle and Repeat. 

 

Gruden has been awesome this year. We are not going to become a consistent winner without having consistency. We've built an identity and have the pieces in place to change the culture. Gruden has been a big part of that and a bigger part of Kirks success.

 

Stay the course. 

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As much as I didn't want to say it after the saints game, I think we have to keep gruden. 

 

He's made mistakes no doubt but he isn't terrible, and I think the team is getting better overall, despite the mediocre record we have right now. 

 

The defense is taking steps in the right direction and the offense is overcoming adversity and improving slightly after losing key players in the offense both due to free agency and also the worst oline injury bug I've ever seen. 

 

The only caviat to this is if we decide not to resign cousins.. then by all means blow it up. 

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On 11/26/2017 at 4:07 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Arians but I thought the narrative of him stepping down is mostly health related?  I am more than cool though with Jay as a play caller.  If Jay wanted to add him to staff, I'd be cool with it.

That could very well be the case.  He was going to retire after Pittsburgh so it's possible he decides to hang it up for good.  I think he'd be a good addition but I wouldn't want it to end up like a Gibbs / Saunders situation.  Hindsight being what it is I think we would have been better off with Joe holding onto the offense.  So I don't know how it would work with Arians coming in with his own offense that the players would have to learn.  I think from a knowledge stand point he would be great though.  I also agree with the possibility of Hue Jackson.  Hadn't thought of him but he's familiar with Jay's system and runs a similar one so wouldn't be much change there.  All that being said I won't be mad if Gruden holds onto the duties..just think if we can add another knowledgeable guy in there it might help him some.

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8 hours ago, William Barbour said:

If you've grown up during the Snyder era. I don't blame you for thinking we need a new head coach. It's all you know...Recycle and Repeat. 

 

Gruden has been awesome this year. We are not going to become a consistent winner without having consistency. We've built an identity and have the pieces in place to change the culture. Gruden has been a big part of that and a bigger part of Kirks success.

 

Stay the course. 

 

What is our identity exactly?

 

Winning and progress begets consistency.  You earn consistency, you dont just get handed it hoping for the best.  

 

This team makes bad hires, that's why they turn over coaches so much.  It's not because Snyder is trigger happy.  These dudes deserved the door.  As if this franchise would be better off if they had more years of Norv, Spurrier, Zorn, and Shanahan.  I guess we parted with those guys too soon cuz success was right around the corner.  They just needed more time.

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18 hours ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

To be fair, Gruden hasn't coached the Redskins long enough to be compared to Marvin Lewis..  Marv reminds me of a Norv.  Great coordinator, not such a great HC.

 

 

I believe in Jay's system.  It's the players that need to execute it.  A few more pieces to the puzzle and I believe we'll be consistently going to the playoffs and as we all should know, anything can happen then...  My main concern, which could hold us back, is with the FO in finding those pieces..  And then my fear will be Snyder blaming the coaching staff instead of his FO..

We're speaking the same language here.  I too believe in Jay's system.  It's obviously a function system that can win football games.  What I believe sets good coaches apart from 'JAG' coaches is the ability to get the players to execute it.  Look at what McVay is doing in LA.  I understand it's 2/3 of a season, but he walked into a new locker room, with largely a group of the same guys who were in the basement of the NFL and has flipped them to being one of the better teams in football.  McVay's true test will be next season, but it's clear that the guys wearing those jerseys believe in what they are doing.   I'm seeing a lot more of that 'belief' here at times, but we have a track record of playing flat in the past, and seemingly just not showing up.  This season has appeared to be different in that aspect and the next 5 games will be a great test to see if Gruden has motivated these guys to buy in.  I also feel like sometimes it just over his head.  Some of the decision making, play calling, things that us fans look at and have our head scratching.  It's a part of the learning curve, and I can't even imagine what it's like to be in that position with 40000 things going on at 100 mph, but IF Gruden is going to continue to develop as a HC, he NEEDS and OC that he hands over a good amount of that stuff too, if nothing other then to let him focus on certain aspects of the game. 

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1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

What is our identity exactly?

 

That they play hard and with grit and tenacity. They want to win - something I am not sure was the case before. You have a guy like Morgan Moses has 2 broken ankles and he is still playing. Norman came back at least one game early - because he wants to help his teammates. Not because it's a contract year. I could go on but this team to a man has grit and determination like none we have had for a while. That goes directly to the HC and his staff. 

 

If you want specifics on each side of the ball - 

Offense - A pass heavy productive Offense that produces with whoever is out there. Yes, it's a bit weak on the run game but points will be scored. It's not very often that you will hold this team under 20 (3 times, one was a win). And this while having a literal swinging door at Oline. 4 of 5 Oline positions have backups and at least one case the back-ups back-up (C). The top receiver (Reed) has been missing most of the year - even when on the field. The top 2 WRs were let go in FA - something I agreed with even though most did not. The #1 replacement in Pryor is a bust (had high hopes for him but he just did not pan out). The top 2 RBs out for the year. The running game actually appeared the second half of the giants game and that is against a very good defensive front regardless of their record. 

 

Defense - Hard hitting and aggressive. You will know you have played them when the game is over. Do they still make mistakes? Of course. They have had some epic melt-downs. But they like the rest of the team continue to battle. Continue to fight. I really like Manusky's overall approach. He just needs to clean up the last 2 mins of the half. But there is no way anyone can look at this defense objectively and not see that is miles ahead of any defense we had the last 5 years. The biggest problem right now is consistency. But it's all of 11 games into the first season with Manusky and many new players. 

 

To go through the schedule they have had and with all the injuries - 15 players on IR, only 3 players on offense playing the whole year - guys coming off the street getting prepared and making contributions - just not sure how people just ignore all that and look at individual plays in a vacuum and declare Jay not a very good coach. Not to mention navigating Bruce and Dan. Jay has his faults like we all do - although some of the things fans see as mistakes are not mistakes at all. But Jay and the coaching staff are doing an amazing job with all things considered. 

 

And no, I am not satisfied with mediocre. I want this team to win a SB. Could there be someone out there that could do a better job? Quite possibly. But there are many many more that would do a lot worse. For me, the bottom line question is with the right talent can he take this team to a SB and win it. I think he can.

 

Now will Bruce Allen get out of his own way and get him the talent he needs? That is a completely different question. In fairness Bruce, Doug and the scouting staff have done a nice job bringing the right guys in to replace others. At some point we have to stop saying well that was Scot's list. They are doing something right. But still it is Bruce who as others have said seems to enjoy winning contract negotiations more than putting a football team together. He will be tested this off-season - and not just with Kirk. 

 

But that remains the same question no matter who the HC is. 

 

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1 hour ago, justice98 said:

 

This team makes bad hires, that's why they turn over coaches so much.  It's not because Snyder is trigger happy.  These dudes deserved the door.  As if this franchise would be better off if they had more years of Norv, Spurrier, Zorn, and Shanahan.  I guess we parted with those guys too soon cuz success was right around the corner.  They just needed more time.

...or perhaps there is more to it than simply who's coaching the team? 

 

The 53 players (if we're lucky to have to that many healthy) that make up the roster are much more pivotal to wins and losses than the entire coaching staff.  That all starts with being a functional and efficient organization from the top down for which this organization hasn't been since Dan bought the team.

 

I see folks are still avoiding my question about where exactly Jay has underachieved results-wise considering the circumstances, roster, etc. 

 

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17 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

My question to those of the belief that Jay will always be a .500 coach, it's just who he is, and so on folks...

 

Do you believe that he's underachieved with the rosters we've had? 

 

 

 

Like i mentioned above, my concern with the guy is decision making, not scheme or play design.  This season has been a heck of a ride thus far with his ability to keep us competitive when the odds are stacked against us.  What's scary is that we could easily be 8-3 right now had the players executed 3 more plays on the field.  That's my struggle with Jay... As good as it's worked out, there's been quite a bit left on the field, whether it be questionable playcalling, players seemingly disappearing, poor clock management, weird quirks that could literally be the difference between 8 wins and 11 wins.  He's done a lot with very little, but as much as we've done this year overcoming things, we've been in position to have more and we've left it out there.  

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22 hours ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

My question to those of the belief that Jay will always be a .500 coach, it's just who he is, and so on folks...

 

Do you believe that he's underachieved with the rosters we've had? 

 

That's what making a coaching change really boils down to.  Where you have a coach that is underachieving and not meeting realistic expectations.

 

2014: A complete and utter mess, from the QB on down. 

I'd say the 4 wins we got were right around where the team was with any head coach.

 

2015: Inserted a new QB into a team with a roster that lacked depth or any level of star power on the defensive side of the ball.

9-7, NFC East champions, after winning 5 in a row to close the season.  Things were going off the rails and then the team caught fire and ran into Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs.

 

2016: Tough schedule, atrocious defensive personnel and coach.

8-7-1.  You can blame him for the hiring of Joe Barry which led a defense that was just awful and folded causing losses.  But did they really underachieve all that much?

 

2017: The hardest schedule in football, including getting some teams at the worst times.  Overwhelming injuries to very key pieces of both the offensive and defensive lines.

5-6 Thus far.  Given the circumstances, is that really underachieving?

 

Why is underachieving the only measure?  Overachieving isnt a thing? 

 

If you neither underachieve, nor overachieve, you're basically average.  He does exactly what he's supposed to, he'll never do more.  Sometimes, it wont always be perfect and you gotta rise up. 

 

All that tough schedule talk, now they've got no teams left with a winning record, let's see what they do.  The Chargers are the only team that should concern us.  The rest are bums.

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11 minutes ago, justice98 said:

If you neither underachieve, nor overachieve, you're basically average.

 

Or you're doing what you should be doing with the talent at hand.  And in this year's case, an excellent job.

 

11 minutes ago, justice98 said:

All that tough schedule talk, now they've got no teams left with a winning record, let's see what they do.  The Chargers are the only team that should concern us.  The rest are bums.

 

At full strength, I'd agree...  But we're not at full strength and haven't been since week 2...  We're out there with 3rd and 4th string guys..   Guys that were cut in training camp..  Guys signed off the street the same week they start.   To me, if Gruden can have us .500 this year, he should be considered for coach of the year.

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2 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

Or you're doing what you should be doing with the talent at hand.  And in this year's case, an excellent job.

 

 

At full strength, I'd agree...  But we're not at full strength and haven't been since week 2...  We're out there with 3rd and 4th string guys..   Guys that were cut in training camp..  Guys signed off the street the same week they start.   To me, if Gruden can have us .500 this year, he should be considered for coach of the year.

seriously...if we can make the playoffs he certainly be in the top 3 or 4 mentioned

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10 minutes ago, Paul Cumberland said:

 

Or you're doing what you should be doing with the talent at hand.  And in this year's case, an excellent job.

 

 

At full strength, I'd agree...  But we're not at full strength and haven't been since week 2...  We're out there with 3rd and 4th string guys..   Guys that were cut in training camp..  Guys signed off the street the same week they start.   To me, if Gruden can have us .500 this year, he should be considered for coach of the year.

 

Please. Like we’re the only team that has injuries. Philly has had significant injuries too. Dallas is missing their best players on defense and offense and their secondary is garbage. There’s no excuses Thursday.

 

But by far the weakest excuse is, we played a hard schedule. That’s one weak excuse. Never understood that one.

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