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Redskins vs Chiefs Prediction Thread: KC vs KC, in KC?


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23 minutes ago, Mr. Sinister said:

Hah, i remember that game. We led a comeback, and Sammy Knight tipped what would have been a game winning TD pass from Brunell to Moss

I clearly remember Rock Cartwright's fumble, driving for the go ahead score being returned 80 yards for a Chiefs TD.  Talk about reversal of fortune.  KC always beats teams by forcing turnovers and really running the ball.  They are better on offense so far in 2017 than I can ever recall.  Alex smith does indeed throw short passes but the YAC kills you as they lead the league at 7.59 per play . He's also VERY efficient & they are very good at scoring in the redzone, in fact ranked #2 at 83.3%. They have the number 1 ranked QB and RB in fantasy football, and the #3 receiver.  Their TE is pretty damn good too.  They have a "shovel pass" the KC newspapers have deemed "unstoppable". Alex has been exceptional vs the blitz with a passer rating of 158.3.  That is perfect btw.  Actually that plays into our favor as we haven't had to blitz to generate pressure so far. The Chiefs are second in the NFL with 9 sacks. Tyreek Hill is Cheetah fast....like unbelievably fast.  I'm not trying to paint a doom & gloom picture, but they are really ****ing good, and especially in Arrowhead.  What I DO know as well is Philadelphia played them close (at their house) AND they won at SD, but outside of a great first quarter, were very lackluster. This is going to be a very stern test.  Get your popcorn & beverage of choice ready for this one.  Hail

 

http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/sam-mellinger/article175193366.html

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Most here had little faith we could actually beat the Chargers (Raiders) ???, much less give them a total ass whooping.  I wasn't all hyped up about the game, given our prime time performances, but that initial turnover by the defense, gave me confidence from the get go.  We have to begin our rise somewhere, and I am hoping it repeats Monday night.  :redskins-3908:

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I keep flashing back to the game against them in DC, where they took us behind the shed, and did something to us that would make Penthouse blush.

 

 BUT, that team had nothing to play for; they were lost, the team seemed divided, scandals and accusations left and right.

 This is a totally different situation. Thank god its an early season game, where we could survive [ hopefully ] a collapse, but I don't see it happening like that. They came to play last week; they must have read/heard fans were not too confident of their chances. As long as they play their best, even in a loss, i'd be happy. I don't want to see another blow-out, but my gut tells me that they're mentally upbeat and are not worried about KC.

 

Honestly, it could be the game that lets the league know we're for real. The players have to believe it first.  

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7 minutes ago, TD_washingtonredskins said:

Let's slow down...did you think there was any way "this defense" would hold the Raiders to 10 points (all off short fields)? Things change week to week in the NFL all the time. 

Why slow down...just look at the performances.  The Pats game was opening the season and the Pats played terrible on both sides of the ball.  The next two weeks the Pats cleaned it up.  So lets not dwell on week 1.  Weeks 2 and 3, KC put up 27 vs the Eagles and 24 vs SD (Phillip Rivers gave them 14 pts).  The Skins defense doesn't have any injuries.  There isn't any sign of some aeration or indicator that what they're doing isn't legit.  They've played increasingly better from week to week...What am I missing here bro?

 

Again, there's no way that KC puts up 40 points against the Skins. Not happening. No indicators for that at all.  

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I have a hard time picking the Skins to lose so won't do it here.  Redskins 24 Chiefs 23.  Having said that there are two games above all this year that worry me the most.  This game and the one against Seattle. Arguably those are the two toughest teams in the NFL to beat on the road.  If the Redskins beat the Chiefs, I'd likely be on my biggest in season high (for a nonplayoff implication game) in eons.   It would be an insane win to beat the hottest team in the NFL in their house.

 

I think they need to run with the game plan they used against the Rams.   Heavy run - ball control.    Crowd the box and play tight man -- dare Alex Smith to beat you deep versus the running game/short throws.

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1 minute ago, zoony said:

 

New to watchibg the Skins, i take it?

As important as the past is, it's never as important as how you view the future. 

I've been watching the Skins for over 30 yrs. and still don't know how you can pin a blowout predicated upon nothing that's currently happening or valid and stick with MNF type of jinx.  If there's some sort of history about MNF performance then follow it up with reality. 

Skins are .431 on MNF and KC is .564

KC hasn't even played MNF since GB smacked them in 2015

 

MNF past performance has very little factor to do with anything. KC isn't even that much of a home field advantage as many indicate.  They're barely above .500 the last two years at Arrowhead and only because of an OT win vs SD and barely pulling one out vs the Browns last year.

 

Where's the reality in the blank quotes of getting smoked on MNF???  Not making any logical sense.

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As many of you know, I think the "when" really matters when making a prediction. I believe in trends, odds, and the mental aspect that goes along with how the schedule plays out. 

 

So far this year I think the "when" has been on our side. 

 

Week one is pretty neutral of course because it's week one. In terms of peripheral advantages I gave a very slim edge to the Eagles due to the law of averages with the 5 game winning streak. Overall, I thought it was pretty neutral though. 

 

Week 2 I felt was a great spot for us and I said so in the prediction thread. That lined up very well in our favor with people overreacting to the results of week one. Also wasn't big on a young head coach waltzing in winning his first two games taking over a 4-12 team. Figured Rams feeling themselves a bit after crushing Colts and Skins might have more edge to them. 

 

Also thought the Raiders game lined up well for us. At 2-0 and being an NFC road game it wasn't a huge spot for Oakland. And they had exploded against a soft team the week before. And it was their second cross country trip in three weeks. Thought we could sneak up on them. 

 

Now, week 4 in KC.... I think I'll rate it as pretty neutral. I like the fact that they are 3-0 and also 3-0 ATS. None of their three wins have been "easy" but none have been down to the wire nail biters either. All three of their games have followed a similar pattern where they seem more or less in control, but the door remained open for awhile until they shut it late. They are slightly due for something probably a little tougher. 

 

But with our performance on Sunday I am quite sure we have their attention and there won't be any "sneak up" factor this week. Had we lost to Oakland I think it's possible KC would have taken us a little more lightly. Now, I am sure they realize that we are capable. 

 

Considering we are 1-8 against them all time with zero wins in KC, you could say that we are "due." But the sample is so spread out that I don't think we can use that one. 

 

So overall I'll rate this one as neutral too. 

 

I am going to predict that the Chiefs win and cover... barely. I'm going with 24-17 KC. I think we will play them tough. Could very well be tied late. 

 

My issue with picking us to win is that this is one of very few possible match ups in the entire league where I think we could play REALLY well and still lose. It's possible we play a very good game and don't win. Against most teams, if we play REALLY well we are going to win. If the Chiefs also play really well, they could edge us out-- and homefield helps there. 

 

I see the defense holding their own, but certainly not recreating the Raiders dominance. Oakland beats you talent on talent. The line up and beat you. Manusky knew that and he challenged our guys to punch first. It worked brilliantly. KC is a more cerebral, methodical team. It's really hard to just totally shut down an Andy Reid offense. He will most certainly do some things that allow the Chiefs to churn out yards and move the chains. They are very frustrating in that regard--but now they also have real speed and big play threats. So it's more dangerous these days to crowd the box against the Chiefs than it used to be. Alex Smith is on fire so far this year-- and they are going vertical more often. 

 

I think the offense winds up delivering a so-so performance. Just short of what we will need. 

 

So I'm picking the Chiefs by 7. I'm about 65/35 that they win the game. I'm about 52/48 that they cover the 6.5 points. 

 

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Chiefs place their Kicker on IR.

Chiefs lose their kicker and Rookie will make his first NFL appearance on MNF

Why isn't anyone talking about the most significant injury to KC leading up to this game?

 

In a close game, PrimeTime, do you feel comfortable with a rookie's first NFL game possibly riding on his shoulders?

 

Gotta take everything into consideration when making predictions.  Many people just shooting from the hip and pulling numbers out of their back pocket.

 

Additional Info:  Week 2 KC lost their starting Center Mitch Morse. They replaced him not with the backup on the depth chart but with back up RG Zach Fulton.  KC gave up 5 sacks to SD last week.  Alex Smith had only 155 passing yards.

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Reading the 'tea leaves' I think the Chefs are beatable. Their defense yeilds a lot of yards per game but is stingy in the Red Zone. Sounds exactly like our offense: great between the 20s but not very good in the Red Zone. So for us to have a chance, we need to do better than 1/3 in the Red Zone against the Raiders. 

 

The secret to stopping the Chefs offense is no secret: limit Kareem Hunt's Yards After Contact. And, our D has been very good of late at limiting YAC. 

 

Chiefs 2017 Per Game Stats

Offense

  • Points: 31.0 (3rd)
  • Total Yards: 397.3 (3rd)
  • Passing Yards: 235.3 (14th)
  • Rushing Yards: 162.0 (1st)

 

Defense

  • Points: 19.0 (7th)
  • Total Yards: 369.0 (28th)
  • Passing Yards: 257.3 (24th)
  • Rushing Yards: 111.7 (18th)

 

Redskins 24

Chiefs 20

 
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I am making my pick this week based only on the trenches. 

Our O-lines opens holes and gets out in front of screens.

Our D-line dominates their O-line.  Oakland has a better o-line then the Chiefs and we continue this week in the tranches.

 

Arrowhead is a tough place to play and the Chiefs are good.

 

Redskins: 23

Chiefs:  21

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On 9/27/2017 at 11:58 AM, TouchdownSkin said:

Most here had little faith we could actually beat the Chargers, much less give them a total ass whooping.  I wasn't all hyped up about the game, given our prime time performances, but that initial turnover by the defense, gave me confidence from the get go.  We have to begin our rise somewhere, and I am hoping it repeats Monday night.  :redskins-3908:

Man we beat the Chargers already?  Damn we are better than I thought we were, we can now beat teams without even playing them.  Next up Redskins get a season bye and go straight to the playoffs.

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15 hours ago, TheShredder said:

Additional Info:  Week 2 KC lost their starting Center Mitch Morse. They replaced him not with the backup on the depth chart but with back up RG Zach Fulton.  KC gave up 5 sacks to SD last week.  Alex Smith had only 155 passing yards.

I didn't know this and gives me hope that we will continue to get a strong push on the inside. 

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