The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[Morneblade]

2 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

Somehow I feel this is going to become a cautionary tale on how not to handle a promising young QB. 

 

I think it already has.

[Tay]

Based on Spotrac, I tried to see what the most recent contract each QB signed would be based on todays cap, in order to get reasonable comps for Kirk. There may be some interpretation error, but I think it's reasonable.

 

It's also important to note with Kirk that these values will be on top of the $24M he's getting with the tag.

QB/Years/Tot/AAV/Fully GTD/ Total GTD

 

Ryan/5/140,863,821/28,172,764/40,709,644/57,049,848

Rodgers/5/138,120,301/27,624,060/41,712,331/67,817,068

Wilson/4/102,102,178/25,525,544/36,960,988/71,777,831

Roethlisberger/4/101,869,068/25,467,267/36,163,519/36,163,519

Manning/4/97,906,198/24,476,549/62,953,685/75,779,397

Luck /5/122,970,000/24,594,000/44,023,260/86,201,970

Rivers/4/97,032,035/24,258,009/43,664,416/75,782,019

Palmer/1/24,350,000/24,350,000/0/24,350,000

Newton/5/120,984,087/24,196,817/47,788,714/69,928,802

Brees/1/24,250,000/24,250,000/24,250,000/24,250,000

Stafford/3/71,959,351/23,986,450/45,478,310/56,344,172

Brady /2/47,787,549/23,893,774/32,638,896/32,638,896

Flacco/3/71,416,242/23,805,414/47,348,968/47,348,968

Smith/3/64,037,594/21,345,865/28,240,579/42,392,887

Tannehill/4/82,817,028/20,704,257/23,105,951/48,365,145

Dalton/6/120,541,353/20,090,226/21,335,820/21,335,820

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, thesubmittedone said:

 

At the same time, maybe they don't care. Maybe they're thinking well, whatever... either way we're going to have to pay him market value either this year or next year so even if it's for more than we think, welp, it's going to happen.

 

Heck, maybe it's Kirk's side that is waiting for those contracts. And maybe those guys are wanting Kirk to hold out as long as possible on the tag so that their agents could negotiate off it themselves.

 

Lot of intrigue there, lol. But I do think it's inter-connected. I really do. I think that often gets missed when we discuss it here.  

 

Them not caring would fit that earlier narrative that they toyed with him testing the market to allow the actual market set the market value.  But, apparently the Kyle hire made that too risky. So its plausible to me.   For me the narrative that keeps getting in the way (if true) is the Bruce doesn't want to pay Kirk 24 million and they don't feel Colt wouldn't be a mile off Kirk's production and they can get him to play on the cheap.  That narrative though could be false or a negotiating bluff that the people at Redskins Park are purposely putting out there.  So I don't know.

 

Personally I hope one or some of these deals do happen.  I suspect these new contracts don't go Bruce's way (although I hope they do).  But it would set very clearly what teams pay for their franchise quarterbacks and in current terms.   Part of the team is dysfunctional narrative as to the Kirk contract IMO centers on the thought that other teams don't let their quarterbacks go or tease that they might.  It's not even a conversation about Matt Ryan or name that franchise QB bolting to play for another team. So leave it to the Redskins to open up that pandora's box and be the first team in a long time to dance with losing their guy -- coupled with the thoughts of some that Bruce maybe is a dinosaur in terms of understanding today's market for QBs and or is too cheap to get it done. 

 

So a Carr, Ryan, Stafford deal/deals would help bring things home one way or another.

 

21 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Yep, SIP.  The price goes up and next year it's either $28 mill on a TT or $34 mill on a FT.  Kind of stupid when you really think about it by Bruce.  If he signs here or someone else on the TT we get no compensation from what I have read; I might be wrong.  But if you add it all up and say we got him even on the TT, which I believe it doubtful it will mean that KC will have made $71 - $72 mill over 3 years, if he plays here in 2018.  Crazy and the Redskins would be the talk of the league, if that were to happen and not in a positive way.

 

Yeah I suspect Stafford gets at least what Luck did, if not more -- ditto Carr and Ryan.   And if so what does Bruce say next, well Kirk you are no Derek Carr -- if he's a 26 million a year guy, you are a 22 million guy, etc.  That won't work.

 

But I agree with Subs overall point.  Those contracts might move things along.   At the very least it would put Bruce on the spot.  And IMO anything that puts Bruce on the spot might be helpful.

[Sekhmet187]

I understand the pessimism but I really do think a deal will get done eventually and Kirk will be a Redskin but it looks like Bruce is content with waiting til the very last minute (either this summer before the deadline or after the season) to save as many pennies as possible.

 

I know it makes fans nervous, but I don't get a feeling they would legitimately let Kirk walk. Hes either going to be traded because they know he won't come back, or he will get a deal in the 9th hour.

[wit33]

1 hour ago, MartinC said:

 

Well I hope thats just a negotiating tactic. I'd be amazed if Gruden saw Colt as anything more than a decent backup who could MAYBE get you through a couple of games.

 

Colt started 4 games in 2014 and took 17 sacks!

 

What were Kirk's stats that year with the same personnel? 

 

[MartinC]

26 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

What were Kirk's stats that year with the same personnel? 

 

 

He took 8 sacks in 5 starts.

[carex]

13 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

He took 8 sacks in 5 starts.

 

he also threw 6 more inteceptions, which might be part f how he avoided some of them

[MartinC]

18 minutes ago, carex said:

 

he also threw 6 more inteceptions, which might be part f how he avoided some of them

 

Cousins interception rate was high in 2014. Thats why he got benched. But Colts sack rate was off the charts - he was taking 6.5 sacks a game. 11% of his drop backs were sacks. Thats going to kill your offense ... and your QB. Its a small ish sample size but over 16 games Colt would have taken over 100 sacks in a season.

 

Meanwhile Cousins has been at around a 2% pick rate the last two full seasons. He seems to have that under control.

[ThomasRoane]

22 minutes ago, carex said:

 

he also threw 6 more inteceptions, which might be part f how he avoided some of them

 

Lol are you seriously trying to argue for the Colt-Sudfeld option?

[carex]

10 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Cousins interception rate was high in 2014. Thats why he got benched. But Colts sack rate was off the charts - he was taking 6.5 sacks a game. 11% of his drop backs were sacks. Thats going to kill your offense ... and your QB. Its a small ish sample size but over 16 games Colt would have taken over 100 sacks in a season.

 

Meanwhile Cousins has been at around a 2% pick rate the last two full seasons. He seems to have that under control.

 

if he was sacked 17 times in 4 games that's 4.25, and we have a better line so hopefully if something happens Colt's sacks would decrease

[MartinC]

Just now, carex said:

 

if he was sacked 17 times in 4 games that's 4.25

 

Sorry yes. So thats 68 sacks in a season.

 

 

[carex]

11 minutes ago, ThomasRoane said:

 

Lol are you seriously trying to argue for the Colt-Sudfeld option?

 

no, I'm trying to say based on our O-line that year maybe most QBs would have made mistakes

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, MartinC said:

Nah. Doing a long term deal will lower the annual cap hit. Maybe not by a huge amount but certainly by 2 or 3 million.

 

The only reason to not commit to a long term deal is doubt about Cousins ability to sustain his performance over the length of a contract or a belief that we can get equal or better QB production for less.

 

Well in any business a highly paid employee is let go because the company/owner knows they can get someone with same talent or close to it for a lot less. 

 

I hope the FO doesn't do this with Kirk though. We haven't had a franchise QB in ages.

[HOF44]

2 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

Well in any business a highly paid employee is let go because the company/owner knows they can get someone with same talent or close to it for a lot less. 

 

I hope the FO doesn't do this with Kirk though. We haven't had a franchise QB in ages.

Top QB's are soooo rare, and so hard to identify, when you have someone that even looks like one you gotta do what you gotta do to keep him. 

[PF Chang]

If Bruce actually believes that Colt can hit 90% of Kirk's production, he is the dumbest executive in the history of sports. I hope that's just a (very unconvincing) negotiating tactic. The organization is completely screwed if Bruce legitimately believes that. 

[desertbeagle85]

26 minutes ago, PF Chang said:

If Bruce actually believes that Colt can hit 90% of Kirk's production, he is the dumbest executive in the history of sports. I hope that's just a (very unconvincing) negotiating tactic. The organization is completely screwed if Bruce legitimately believes that. 

 

I agree bubbles 

[Tsailand]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

lets say Stafford gets 22 million a year

 

Yeah, no, that's not happening.  His 2017 cap hit is 22M already. He is going to get paid Luck money also.

 

All the franchise QBs are going to get paid.  Except ours.

 

 

[HTTRDynasty]

2 hours ago, Sekhmet187 said:

I understand the pessimism but I really do think a deal will get done eventually and Kirk will be a Redskin but it looks like Bruce is content with waiting til the very last minute (either this summer before the deadline or after the season) to save as many pennies as possible.

 

How does waiting until after the season save us money?

[Morneblade]

3 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

How does waiting until after the season save us money?

 

It doesn't. But I've given up bothering trying to educate. The ignore feature is very nice.

[Tay]

I showed the various QB contracts in todays numbers because all of this "speculation" and talk about new contracts "resetting the market" is total BS and just gives the media talking points. The fact is that bottom tier franchise QB's are worth just above $20M per year. Bruce starting negotiations at that point isn't a slap in the face, it's a starting point. Top end franchise QBs are worth near $28M per year. Most franchise QBs are worth between $24-25M AAV.

 

The fully guaranteed at signing portion of all of these contracts average about 43% of the total value of the contract. The total guaranteed average around 63% of the total contract. The market is already set. The Redskins and Kirk's agent just must agree on where Kirk fits. Franchised player deals generally get done around the deadline. Why? IDK, I think the posturing is pointless, but it's the way of the NFL.

[Tsailand]

12 minutes ago, Tay said:

Most franchise QBs are worth between $24-25M AAV.

 

Most franchise QBs aren't about to play on their second franchise tag in a row.  How does that affect his value?

 

 

Poor Snyder, he saw the word "franchise" in "franchise QB" and decided that mean you have to franchise tag the guy every year.  I hope someone explains it to him before it's too late.

 

 

[Veryoldschool]

4 hours ago, MartinC said:

 

Personally I think they are looking at the 2018 QB class and thinking that is where they find a long term QB. Its a heck of a class - but we all know drafting QB's is a crap shoot. If they thought Colt was a real alternative to Cousins they would not have signed him to the franchise tag.

 

Yes, Snyder probably prefers the bird in the 2018 bush over the 28 year Pro Ball QB he has on the roster.  He consistently undervalues what he has and covets what he doesn't have.

 

Kirk will be probably be gone in 2018 and Snyder will be busy selling his next savior's jerseys and unfortunately a lot fans will jump on the new Mr. Wonderful bandwagon.

[Veryoldschool]

When you posters mention Bruce I believe you are referring to Snyder's left hand that is covered with a sock puppet that enunciates Snyder's thoughts and serves as Snyder's shield from criticism.  Unlike Jerry Jones, who like him or not is a fully formed man who takes responsibility for his choices, Dan Snyder employs sock puppets as buffers to absorb the heat and dispense with when they get radioactive.  Snyder's right hand is busy reaching into every pocket within reach, left or right hand it is all Snyder.

[Tay]

36 minutes ago, Tsailand said:

 

Most franchise QBs aren't about to play on their second franchise tag in a row.  How does that affect his value?

 

 

Poor Snyder, he saw the word "franchise" in "franchise QB" and decided that mean you have to franchise tag the guy every year.  I hope someone explains it to him before it's too late.

 

 

 

When Brees was on his 2nd Franchise Tage he got a deal that paid him an AAV that would put him as the 3rd highest paid QB based on today's salary cap.

 

At the time, it made him the highest paid QB as a % of the cap. So he essentially truly "reset the market" and was the reason Rodgers and Ryan got the contracts they ended up with. If Cousins was seen as elite he would likely demand $28+. He's not, and if anyone gave him that kind of money that team would be seriously putting themselves at a competitive disadvantage when trying to build a team around him.

 

I don't think Cousins is demanding a huge AAV. I think he would be fine around $24M. I think he wants to maximize the Fully guaranteed part of his contract, because that reflects the team's commitment. The agent will likely shoot for a high Total guarantee because it looks nice in headlines.

[Skinsinparadise]

Hopefully Keim is wrong.  It plays until what Michael Robinson claims Scot thought in 2016 if you don't sign him and just protract negotiations for a long time, ultimately it might fatigue Kirk and he'd start thinking the roses smell better elsewhere.

 

http://www.espn.com/blog/washington-redskins/post/_/id/30756/expectations-for-a-kirk-cousins-deal-remain-low

John Keim: OK, there are a few topics regarding Cousins so I'll just go one by one.

Contract update: There really is none. During the scouting combine, word surfaced that the Washington Redskins had offered him $20 million per year; I'd been told it was for five years. I've also been told that the $20 million might not be 100 percent accurate so I'll just use the word approximately. At the owners meetings, team president Bruce Allen told SI.com's Albert Breer that it was a five-year extension on top of the 2017 franchise tag. That was the first I'd heard it was an extension and would not replace the tag money. But I also was told the guarantees were "low." And I was told that there has been no new offer since before the combine (the sides did meet in Indianapolis).

Expectations for a deal (asked by @t_holston): Mine are rather low. Some people I know think it should be even lower. Maybe it changes, but that's the feeling now. I know the Redskins say they'll get a deal done, but I also think they've waited too long to make an offer that tempts Cousins. That said, they've still been willing to pay him $44 million over two years. It's not as if he's been done wrong financially thanks to the franchise tag. Still, at some point it won't be about the money for him; if free, he can get a similar deal elsewhere.

He's using his leverage; if he had taken some of the Redskins' previous offers, he'd have left in some cases $20 million on the table. Last year, for example, they offered him $24 million in guarantees for the life of the deal. After playing on a second tag, he will have made $44 million guaranteed over two years. Basic math folks.

At this point, there's more incentive for Cousins to wait and see how things play out in Washington -- the direction of the franchise, how he meshes with coach Jay Gruden as a playcaller, etc. Cousins can become a free agent next offseason (unless the Redskins tag him for a third and final time).

That's not to say the Redskins are incorrect in their appraisal of him, but if they truly do want a longterm deal then their approach needed to be different.