The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree with almost everything in your post my only small pause is I recall Adam Schefter multiple times when asked by Sheehan in 2016 about Kirk getting a deal and Von Miller getting a deal -- he said Kirk he doesn't think so but as to Von Miller and Denver they will get it done, right now its just posturing but both parties want to make it happen.   If I recall though those chats were in the Spring so closer to the deadline.  Likewise here views can change closer to the deadline. 

 

I agree they could be waiting for the draft.  Part of it could be seeing whether SF takes a QB and if so would that dampen Kirk's thoughts about SF.   Yeah as for the Bruce/Scot drama.  I hate it for many reasons.  But I do like it for one reason which is it puts Bruce on the spot.  Bruce would be taken one heck of a risk to trade or just tag Kirk and let him go after a season.  Teams just don't let their franchise Qb out the door.  And if the Redskins take a left turn that most teams aren't willing to do, the person who made the decision should IMO get canned if it doesn't work out.  The other political layer to this is Shanny.  Would they really just hand them Kirk and give them an opportunity to show up everyone?  The politics behind letting Kirk go to me are too crazy for them to have it go down. 

 

That was June 8th as it says below. Here is the entire article from SI: http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/06/08/

 

Adam Schefter

 

✔ @AdamSchefter

Not to say it can't get done, but it will be very difficult for Denver and Von Miller to reach long-term agreement by July 15 deadline.

1:27 PM - 8 Jun 2016

[Gregpeck99]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

... I am assuming you mean neither side at this moment has an incentive versus ever?

Nope.  I think the point of no return has been reached.  

 

I give the odds of a "Kirk Trade" before the upcoming Draft ... as opposed to a LTD being signed at any time ... as 70-30 in favor of the Trade.

 

But what do I know?

 

[Skinsinparadise]

47 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

That was June 8th as it says below. Here is the entire article from SI: http://www.si.com/nfl/2016/06/08/

 

Adam Schefter

 

✔ @AdamSchefter

Not to say it can't get done, but it will be very difficult for Denver and Von Miller to reach long-term agreement by July 15 deadline.

1:27 PM - 8 Jun 2016

 

Thanks, the link didn't work but at some point that perspective shifted with Schefter.  Don't recall when aside from I heard it on Cooley/Sheehan's show and that show didn't start until May of 2016 so it would have to be after that.  It could have been right in front of the deadline but it happened at some point because I recall it in the context of Kirk predictions.

 

Maybe it was around this time:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/sources-von-miller-agent-phone-meeting-broncos/story?id=40595092

Earlier this week, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Broncos general manager John Elway had personally called Miller over the Fourth of July weekend to express a desire to work out a long-term deal, after almost a full month without dialogue between the sides.

Sources said Elway and Miller spent about 10-15 minutes on the phone during that call, with Elway telling Miller that the Broncos still love him and want to re-sign him. Elway told Miller during that conversation that Denver would reach out to his agents this week in an effort to jump-start talks.

 

 

7 minutes ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Nope.  I think the point of no return has been reached.  

 

I give the odds of a "Kirk Trade" before the upcoming Draft ... as opposed to a LTD being signed at any time ... as 70-30 in favor of the Trade.

 

But what do I know?

 

 

So why would it be that the Redskins would have no incentive to try to get a LTC done since you mentioned there is no incentive for either party.

[purbeast]

What I don't understand is if the Redskins are comfortable doing the 3 year stuff with franchise tags, and in the end its like $72 million or around there, then why the hell are they so hesitant to do a 100+ million contract with $80 mill guaranteed for 5 years?  Are they just bad at math?

 

72 million over 3 years on franchise tag = 24 million/yr and that is ALL GUARANTEED.

120 million over 5 years LTD = 24 million/yr with say 80 million guaranteed

 

So he's worth 24 million/yr under the tag but not under a LTD?  As a software engineer that has a strong math background, I simply do not understand what logic/math the Redskins are using that would make the LTD scenario "not worth it" when they are already saying he is worth $24/mill a year. 

[goskins10]

11 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Thanks, the link didn't work but at some point that perspective shifted with Schefter.  Don't recall when aside from I heard it on Cooley/Sheehan's show and that show didn't start until May of 2016 so it would have to be after that.  It could have been right in front of the deadline but it happened at some point because I recall it in the context of Kirk predictions.

 

Maybe it was around this time:

http://abcnews.go.com/Sports/sources-von-miller-agent-phone-meeting-broncos/story?id=40595092

Earlier this week, sources told ESPN's Adam Schefter that Broncos general manager John Elway had personally called Miller over the Fourth of July weekend to express a desire to work out a long-term deal, after almost a full month without dialogue between the sides.

Sources said Elway and Miller spent about 10-15 minutes on the phone during that call, with Elway telling Miller that the Broncos still love him and want to re-sign him. Elway told Miller during that conversation that Denver would reach out to his agents this week in an effort to jump-start talks.

 

 

 

So why would it be that the Redskins would have no incentive to try to get a LTC done since you mentioned there is no incentive for either party.

 

It may have changed and probably did. And I have seen the links that showed they came together at the end. But as of June 8th he was saying it was unlikely that it gets done. And yes, as the deadline got close, the Broncos and Von Miller made nice. That's been my point all along. It's still just March..   From this time until June it looked publicly that the two sides would never agree. Yet they got it done. It's been that way for 75% of all players who have received the exclusive tag.

 

Somehow if feels like people keep trying to make this different since the Von Miller did indeed end up signing a LTD. But that did not happen until very late in the process. In fact as of a month before he walked away from the table and it got very ugly.

[Pick6]

I mean we went through this last year and there were a lot of people who believed a LTD would happen by July 15th. As we now know there was a reasonable offer from Kirk's camp for 3 years @ $19.5 mil/yr.

 

Will people still believe the team will get it together and sign Cousins in 2018 if the miss the deadline again this year? At what point do we come to the conclusion that the egos in the front office are two big to let them do the right thing and sign Cousins.

 

A LTD should have been a day 1 of the 2017 league year conclusion. Locked up and move on with other business.

[Pick6]

11 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

It may have changed and probably did. And I have seen the links that showed they came together at the end. But as of June 8th he was saying it was unlikely that it gets done. And yes, as the deadline got close, the Broncos and Von Miller made nice. That's been my point all along. It's still just March..   From this time until June it looked publicly that the two sides would never agree. Yet they got it done. It's been that way for 75% of all players who have received the exclusive tag.

 

I think there are a couple key differences:

 

Von Miller was only tagged once and then signed a LTD. Cousins is on his second tag.

 

Von Miller is an elite player. One of the best in the league at what he does, if not the best. Cousins is a good QB, probably in the top 10 of activate NFL QBs, but he is not elite. He doesn't fall in the top five, but he wants to be the highest paid QB. Which is where I think the FO is having issues.  

 

John Elway never said publicly that he is a big fan of Von Miller's backup. Bruce Allen has said he is a fan of McCoy. For my money this is the issue, I believe the FO believes it is the system, not the player.

[HOF44]

44 minutes ago, purbeast said:

 

So he's worth 24 million/yr under the tag but not under a LTD?  As a software engineer that has a strong math background, I simply do not understand what logic/math the Redskins are using that would make the LTD scenario "not worth it" when they are already saying he is worth $24/mill a year. 

That's probably what Cousins' agent is saying.  lol

[bowhunter]

One topic I haven't seen greatly debated is whether we have a Franchise QB vs a Franchise Coach. Gruden made something out of Dalton as well.

[Taylor 36]

13 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

One topic I haven't seen greatly debated is whether we have a Franchise QB vs a Franchise Coach. Gruden made something out of Dalton as well.

Cousins has done better the last two seasons with a far inferior supporting cast than what Dalton did with Gruden in Cincy. Plus, we saw how great other QB's did here in Gruden's system his first season, and Cousins far surpassed all of them when given the reins. I'm not trying to underrate Gruden or his system, but I think Cousins plays better than most with Gruden in his system, and it would be foolish to take a step back by using another QB that isn't as good because the system will help them be a decent QB.  OF course, that's what I think. What we do know as facts: Gruden has extended.  Cousins plays very well within his system, better than others that have played in it in this league.  Does it matter who is more responsible for it working so well?  Just keep them together, improve with continuity, and let's win games.

[goskins10]

51 minutes ago, Pick6 said:

 

I think there are a couple key differences:

 

Von Miller was only tagged once and then signed a LTD. Cousins is on his second tag.

 

Von Miller is an elite player. One of the best in the league at what he does, if not the best. Cousins is a good QB, probably in the top 10 of activate NFL QBs, but he is not elite. He doesn't fall in the top five, but he wants to be the highest paid QB. Which is where I think the FO is having issues.  

 

John Elway never said publicly that he is a big fan of Von Miller's backup. Bruce Allen has said he is a fan of McCoy. For my money this is the issue, I believe the FO believes it is the system, not the player.

 

 

Item 1 - That's a misnomer. The only thing that changed in the money. Everything else is exactly the same, especially since they do have another tag year as an option. It's not a good one. But the idea of him being tagged twice as some big deal is very much over blown. As for the money, had they signed him to LTD last year they would have paid him the same at the tag for 2016. Assuming the number is now $24M/yr - which by all accounts that seems to be the number and is reasonable) assuming a 4 yr deal (I heard 3 would get it, most of those deals are for 5, so I split the difference), then after 2018 they would have renegotiated because now he is a normal contract cycle. Even if they wait the full 4 yrs, the total cost of waiting (assuming that $20M was the number last year, and no reason to think it was not) is $12M over 3 yrs. very much worth it to make sure you have the QB you think you have.

 

Item 2 - Regardless of if you think Kirk is elite or not, very good QBS get paid elite money. It's the market. Bruce knows that. He is just going through the negotiations like you are supposed to. This aligns exactly like it did last year with Von. Denver said he was not worth the guaranteed money he wanted and said they would not pay it. Nothing has actually been said by the Redskins so in that sense we are ahead of the game.

 

Item 3 - Last item is pure conjecture with nothing factual to back it up. He has never come out and even said anything close to that. In fact he came out and said Kirk Cousins is our QB and this will get done. Even if say it was being leaked, it's all negotiating tactics unless a deal is done or not done. He has until July 15th.

 

As I stated before, this is in a way a win/win for the fans. If they get a LTD done, great, we have our QB signed. If not, Bruce is gone. He knows that and as Cooley has been quoted as saying, the guy is not insane. Maybe stubborn but not stupid or insane.

[Gregpeck99]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

.... So why would it be that the Redskins would have no incentive to try to get a LTC done since you mentioned there is no incentive for either party.

Let me count the ways:

1.  Tag situation gives disproportional leverage to Kirk giving him argument to seem more valuable than he is ... distorts concept of "fair market value" in Kirk's favor.

2.   KC has not proven to be elite.

3..  LTD will have large impact on Cap.

4.  Playing rookie QB is cheap 5-yr. deal (see dak Prescott model).

5.  Trade value for KC is now at maximum.

6.   KC is  Alex Smith II but will not accept Alex Smith $$$.

[onedrop]

4 minutes ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Let me count the ways:

1.  Tag situation gives disproportional leverage to Kirk giving him argument to seem more valuable than he is ... distorts concept of "fair market value" in Kirk's favor.

2.   KC has not proven to be elite.

3..  LTD will have large impact on Cap.

4.  Playing rookie QB is cheap 5-yr. deal (see dak Prescott model).

5.  Trade value for KC is now at maximum.

6.   KC is  Alex Smith II but will not accept Alex Smith $$$.

in 2 years starting KC has been better than anything weve had since forever, consistent and improved in many areas BUT isnt "elite"....ok, fair enough. However, in one year starting, with no tape to study, what many would call king check down, somehow dak prescott is the "model"?? call me crazy but just maybe we wait for his sophomore year before anointing him the new benchmark?

[bowhunter]

1 hour ago, Taylor 36 said:

Cousins has done better the last two seasons with a far inferior supporting cast than what Dalton did with Gruden in Cincy. Plus, we saw how great other QB's did here in Gruden's system his first season, and Cousins far surpassed all of them when given the reins. I'm not trying to underrate Gruden or his system, but I think Cousins plays better than most with Gruden in his system, and it would be foolish to take a step back by using another QB that isn't as good because the system will help them be a decent QB.  OF course, that's what I think. What we do know as facts: Gruden has extended.  Cousins plays very well within his system, better than others that have played in it in this league.  Does it matter who is more responsible for it working so well?  Just keep them together, improve with continuity, and let's win games.

To be clear, I completely agree with everything you've said. It ain't broke, so let's not fix it. However, my point is that it might be the thought process inside the halls of Ashburn that it's as much the system as it is the QB.

[HOF44]

2 minutes ago, bowhunter said:

However, my point is that it might be the thought process inside the halls of Ashburn that it's as much the system as it is the QB.

Lets hope not.  The NFL is full of train wrecks that went down the system over talent tracks!! The NFL is a players league. 

[bowhunter]

26 minutes ago, HOF44 said:

Lets hope not.  The NFL is full of train wrecks that went down the system over talent tracks!! The NFL is a players league. 

Devils advocate response.: So Wade Phillips=Joe Barry?

 

And I'm really just trying to begin a discussion here. Although not a complete "plug and play" system, there is a modicum of validity to the theory. That it is possible that the organization gives say 40% of the credit to Grudens system, 60% to Cousins or what have you. I'm completely onboard with paying Cousins full market value, and will mourn his loss, should that occur. But Gruden WAS extended and Cousins has not been. Talent trumps coaching Yes, but that's not an absolute either.

[Pwyl]

Only a Sith deals in absolutes. 

[Peregrine]

1 hour ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Let me count the ways:

1.  Tag situation gives disproportional leverage to Kirk giving him argument to seem more valuable than he is ... distorts concept of "fair market value" in Kirk's favor.

2.   KC has not proven to be elite.

3..  LTD will have large impact on Cap.

4.  Playing rookie QB is cheap 5-yr. deal (see dak Prescott model).

5.  Trade value for KC is now at maximum.

6.   KC is  Alex Smith II but will not accept Alex Smith $$$.

 

Okay, if were going to make a point, lets be real here, and not invalidate the rest of your points by saying KC is Alex Smith.  Smith has only once thrown for 20 TDs, when he threw 23.  Cousins in his first 2 years as starter threw for 29 and 25.  Cousins had a QBR of 75 and 71, Smiths highest ever was 68, and 63.  He never had two seasons with QB ratings of over 97, Cousins in only two years has 101 and 97.  Cousins in 2 years threw for 9000 yards.  The best 2 year stretch Smith had was 7000 yards.  In fact, the only year that Smith has ever had that can rival EITHER of Cousins years, but still falls short, is the injury shorterend 2012 where he only played 10 games, threw for 1737 yards, and had a QBR of 68.

 

Its not even close. You kind of shoot yourself in the foot if you use that and then expect people to listen to your other points.

[Morneblade]

24 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

 

Okay, if were going to make a point, lets be real here, and not invalidate the rest of your points by saying KC is Alex Smith.  Smith has only once thrown for 20 TDs, when he threw 23.  Cousins in his first 2 years as starter threw for 29 and 25.  Cousins had a QBR of 75 and 71, Smiths highest ever was 68, and 63.  He never had two seasons with QB ratings of over 97, Cousins in only two years has 101 and 97.  Cousins in 2 years threw for 9000 yards.  The best 2 year stretch Smith had was 7000 yards.  In fact, the only year that Smith has ever had that can rival EITHER of Cousins years, but still falls short, is the injury shorterend 2012 where he only played 10 games, threw for 1737 yards, and had a QBR of 68.

 

Its not even close. You kind of shoot yourself in the foot if you use that and then expect people to listen to your other points.

 

Don't forget the running game KC has had for years, AND a very nasty Defense. Lets face it, You put Alex smith on this team, you're 3-13. Cousins on KC right now? 13-3 with a legit shot to win it all. GP is just being GP, which is to say.........................."different".

[TheGreek1973]

19 minutes ago, Peregrine said:

 

Okay, if were going to make a point, lets be real here, and not invalidate the rest of your points by saying KC is Alex Smith.  Smith has only once thrown for 20 TDs, when he threw 23.  Cousins in his first 2 years as starter threw for 29 and 25.  Cousins had a QBR of 75 and 71, Smiths highest ever was 68, and 63.  He never had two seasons with QB ratings of over 97, Cousins in only two years has 101 and 97.  Cousins in 2 years threw for 9000 yards.  The best 2 year stretch Smith had was 7000 yards.  In fact, the only year that Smith has ever had that can rival EITHER of Cousins years, but still falls short, is the injury shorterend 2012 where he only played 10 games, threw for 1737 yards, and had a QBR of 68.

 

Its not even close. You kind of shoot yourself in the foot if you use that and then expect people to listen to your other points.

it just amazes me that people "throw" out arguments why KC is not elite and how he is really Alex Smith or a check down QB etc etc.  Then one looks at the numbers after being a starter for two years and KC is top 5 in almost all stats.  You start to point that out and immediately they say, he has had elite receivers, or its the system.  So you point out the obvious, didn't you just say he was Alex Smith like?  Now its the receivers and the system?

 

You can never win the argument with people that for whatever reason don't like Cousins.  Then we have the "CAP accountants" of this team...LMAO.  Seriously we just dropped what?  70 million on a CB, with 50 guaranteed, but we shouldn't do a long term deal for 80 guaranteed with a QB that has put numbers that no other Redskins QB has?  And oh btw he is only soon to be 29 years old which is younger than Norman and playing a position that barring injuries you don't reach your peak until 33-35 years old?

 

Simple math for the challenged.  24.75 million is about 15% of the CAP.   The same CAP that will continue to go up every year for the foreseeable future. 15% for the CAP for your starting QB that can run the offense very well and put you in a position to succeed, and oh btw a stellar young man with ZERO issues, is CHEEP. There isn't an argument again this logic any haters can come up with.  80 million and 120 for 5 years is CHEEP people get over it.

 

 

[Stefanskins]

On 3/20/2017 at 6:05 PM, thesubmittedone said:

 

 

 

This should put drafting a replacement QB in perspective....

 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 hours ago, Gregpeck99 said:

Let me count the ways:

1.  Tag situation gives disproportional leverage to Kirk giving him argument to seem more valuable than he is ... distorts concept of "fair market value" in Kirk's favor.

2.   KC has not proven to be elite.

3..  LTD will have large impact on Cap.

4.  Playing rookie QB is cheap 5-yr. deal (see dak Prescott model).

5.  Trade value for KC is now at maximum.

6.   KC is  Alex Smith II but will not accept Alex Smith $$$.

 

OK, I get it its based on the premise that Kirk isn't that great of player.  Yeah if that's the premise coupled with what's the big deal as to finding another Dak in the draft, its not that hard to do -- I'd agree with you if I rode with both thoughts.   I don't agree with either premise, though.  I suspect that the team doesn't agree either considering they already seem to be willing to pay him 24 million this year and if they thought it was easy to find another Dak, I'd gather Kirk would have already be gone or will be traded soon since the draft is about a month away.  Will see. 

 

4 hours ago, goskins10 said:

 

It may have changed and probably did. And I have seen the links that showed they came together at the end. But as of June 8th he was saying it was unlikely that it gets done. And yes, as the deadline got close, the Broncos and Von Miller made nice. That's been my point all along. It's still just March..   From this time until June it looked publicly that the two sides would never agree. Yet they got it done. It's been that way for 75% of all players who have received the exclusive tag.

 

Somehow if feels like people keep trying to make this different since the Von Miller did indeed end up signing a LTD. 

 

My take on this has been consistent from the outset.  I think they get a deal done.  And yeah I agree there are other examples that didn't look good and worked out.  The only thing that I've changed my point of view on is I get the people who are pessimistic a bit more now than I did in January.   We can say don't be deterred  by the bumpy ride but I'd say its a harder road to do so on this situation versus most other deals.    The side stories about Kyle and the history of the Shanny's worshipping Kirk among other things gives this one a more intricate plot.  

 

I don't recall stories (but maybe I missed them) about Von wanting to be on a specific other team that he had strong personal ties to a specific coach -- with national and local reporters saying expect Von to play on such team either that year or the next year.  There seems to be more noise and subplots on Kirk than normal.  But IMO one of those subplots -- the Scot-Bruce stories actually fuels my optimism -- like I said I think Bruce not getting a deal done could result in costing himself his job ultimately.  Why would he risk that?

[PartyPosse]

3 hours ago, Taylor 36 said:

Cousins has done better the last two seasons with a far inferior supporting cast than what Dalton did with Gruden in Cincy. 

I don't agree with this at all. Outside of AJ Green Dalton hasn't had much to work with.

 

2011: Cedric Benson was the main man running the ball and the now out of football Jerome Simpson was the secondary target behind AJ

2012: his main weapons outside of Green were Jermaine Gresham and BGE at back

2013: BGE and Bernard shared RB duties while Jones and Sanu had WR3 numbers

 

At no point did any Cincy RB average 4.0 YPC or over except for Bernard in 2013 at 4.1 (Kelly and Jones, despite their issues last year still averaged 4.2 and 4.6 respectively)

[petedaddy]

6 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don't agree with this at all. Outside of AJ Green Dalton hasn't had much to work with.

 

 

AJ Green makes up for a lot, not sure you can really just dismiss him like he's just any old WR1

 

[Veryoldschool]

I think this all about Snyder's ego.  Outbidding others and setting a record for Norman at QB is pleasing to Snyder's ego.  Paying top dollar for Cousins, Shenanhan's QB who beat out and humiliated Snyder's BFF, does not gratify Snyder's ego it grates on it and that's the rub.  Doofus Danny can't bring himself to finally swallow is pride and do the smart thing and give Cousins his money.

20 minutes ago, PartyPosse said:

I don't agree with this at all. Outside of AJ Green Dalton hasn't had much to work with.

 

2011: Cedric Benson was the main man running the ball and the now out of football Jerome Simpson was the secondary target behind AJ

2012: his main weapons outside of Green were Jermaine Gresham and BGE at back

2013: BGE and Bernard shared RB duties while Jones and Sanu had WR3 numbers

 

At no point did any Cincy RB average 4.0 YPC or over except for Bernard in 2013 at 4.1 (Kelly and Jones, despite their issues last year still averaged 4.2 and 4.6 respectively)

 

Yeah, you're the Cousins expert that isn't fooled by yardage, TD's, first downs, completion percentage, QBRs, wins, comebacks and the rest of the distractions the rest of us find beguiling.  Tells us again why we can't believe our lying eyes.