The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Agreed on all. I don't think many reporters outright make stuff up, though some do and have even been called on it. But I do think a healthy portion run with speculation that confirms what they WANT to be true. I think Al Galdi called them out recently for doing this too when a bunch of the Kirk stuff flew back in their faces. Unfortunately for us the big local paper enjoys the **** of negative takes and will ramp up the negative speculation and many fans bite.

 

You can hear speculation that Kirk inquired about a trade and you can take that and speculate if it means Cousins doesn't want to be here, you can then speculate it's because the team is dysfunctional, and then by doing so you confirm your bias/what you want to be true.

 

Add to that: Cincy had a better run game than us, their QB has been starting for 6 seasons in a fairly consistent offensive scheme, and they had better red zone targets. Despite all that, Kirk had a much better game statistically than Dalton.

 

What I try to do with all that's being talked about is consider the source and consider what are common threads that are consistent from one reporter to another.  On Kirk the common thread is really the same thing spouted again and again with just variations of it with editorial added sometimes and sometimes not.

 

Common Thread

 

A. Kirk wants to use the tag as the base of his salary.  Kirk himself somewhat alluded to it in his Schefter interview and his agent said it fairly directly.  And the beat reporters especially Mike Jones and Keim beat this drum hard.  It will take 24 million a year -- somewhere in the 60-80 million guaranteed dollar range.

 

B.  Bruce isn't close to giving Kirk what he wants.  And pessimism from beat reporters stem from them buying the Redskins will not come to Kirk's price based on what they are told by their sources at Redskins Park.

 

C.  I'd say most reporters (though not all) think that Kirk will play with the Redskins in 2017 but not on a long term contract.  

 

D.  Kirk doesn't mind at all playing on the tag.  If the Redskins don't want to give him a LTC that suits him -- its more than fine to him.   This also drives some of the pessimism because the reporters don't see this as the typical it takes two to tango negotiation. And that's what they feel makes this negotiation unique.

 

What I Don't Buy

 

A.  Kirk doesn't want to be here.  Kirk himself has contradicted it and if you follow even some of the storylines from most of the reporters who don't think Kirk gets the LTC even when they talk up SF as where Kirk wants to be -- they admit that Kirk would sign a LTC here if the Redskins offer him one that he likes.

 

B.  The Redskins want to trade him.  Some are still stuck on this -- most reports say that's hogwash.

 

C. That the current status of negotiations is static and stuck.  That's counter intuitive to me.   I totally buy the Redskins and Kirk are far apart in negotiations.  But there is plenty of time to bridge that gap albeit at times its been quite the bumpy ride.  

[markmills67]

I understand we have plenty of time to give cousins a LTD, but how hard can it be, they want so called $60 to $80m so the skins start at $50m cousins camp want $80m, so the Skins go to $55m and cousins camp say $75m, still no deal so both sides say let's meet in the middle . So that's say 5 years $125m with $65m guaranteed. Guessing at these figures but how and why does this negotiation go on for so long.Try to come to a compromise and if not trade him now, no player is bigger than the Washington Redskins. 

 

HTTR 

[Morneblade]

5 minutes ago, markmills67 said:

I understand we have plenty of time to give cousins a LTD, but how hard can it be, they want so called $60 to $80m so the skins start at $50m cousins camp want $80m, so the Skins go to $55m and cousins camp say $75m, still no deal so both sides say let's meet in the middle . So that's say 5 years $125m with $65m guaranteed. Guessing at these figures but how and why does this negotiation go on for so long.Try to come to a compromise and if not trade him now, no player is bigger than the Washington Redskins. 

 

HTTR 

 

I would disagree with this. I think Kirk and his agent have a hard number they are not going to budge on, and it's based on the FT this year. So, like last year when Allen comes with 5y/80m/50g Cousins comes back with 5y/120m/80g (as an for instance) Allen comes back with 5y/90m/55g and Kirk will be like "Sorry, if your not going to go with 5y/120m/80g, don't even bother". I don't think we are going to see "typical" negotiating.

[CommanderDOOM]

5 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

I always have a good laugh when I read that Kirk isn't even a Top 15 QB. Then, I always wonder who are those 15 guys better than him. I'll probably be able to argue against half those names. Now, if he's Top 10. In 2/3 years he'll be Top 5 (because improving, because guys retiring). Then you'll be glad to have him over more than 20 guys in this league.

 

One could also say there could be 5-10 guys that get better than him that are in the league or will be soon. Remember at one time Kirk looked like hot garbage throwing 13 interceptions on primetime vs. the giants. So even a Simien,Bortles,Dak,Mariotta,Winston,Sudfeld, or whoever could suddenly look like a guy who could demand to be the highest paid QB player in the league.

[elkabong82]

2 hours ago, markmills67 said:

I understand we have plenty of time to give cousins a LTD, but how hard can it be, they want so called $60 to $80m so the skins start at $50m cousins camp want $80m, so the Skins go to $55m and cousins camp say $75m, still no deal so both sides say let's meet in the middle . So that's say 5 years $125m with $65m guaranteed. Guessing at these figures but how and why does this negotiation go on for so long.Try to come to a compromise and if not trade him now, no player is bigger than the Washington Redskins. 

 

HTTR 

 

I've seen this question pop up quite a bit, based solely on the belief the contract is easy.

 

I don't think the effects, ramifications, and details of the contract are truly being grasped under such an assumption. Sure the end result is a contract with easy to analyze numbers, but getting there is very much a journey. We're talking about one of the largest contracts in the ENTIRE NFL. A contract worth minimum $100 million dollars, with likely a minimum guaranteed amount of $50 million. Then there are various incentives within the contract to help cover the team's investment somewhat, same with how they structure the contract. Plus, all of that then has to be negotiated and agreed upon. Basically you have a very large, very long contract with many very specific details, and every one of them is dissected and argued over by both sides. Add on top of that both sides have several months still to go over this. It's not an easy contract to do, it takes time because the details within are complex and each and every one of them have to be negotiated. 

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, TheShredSkinz said:

 

One could also say there could be 5-10 guys that get better than him that are in the league or will be soon. Remember at one time Kirk looked like hot garbage throwing 13 interceptions on primetime vs. the giants. So even a Simien,Bortles,Dak,Mariotta,Winston,Sudfeld, or whoever could suddenly look like a guy who could demand to be the highest paid QB player in the league.

 

 

And ever single one of then could be RGIII, Vince Young, Joey Harrington, Nick Foles, Matt Leinart, John Beck, ect. in 3 years.

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

The Skins front office are idiots. He has us by the short and curly's. If you have no intention to pay him what he wants then trade him for picks this year and move on. Or just pay the dude and have a good/great QB for the next 4-5 years. Smh.

 

[Destino]

2 hours ago, TheShredSkinz said:

 

One could also say there could be 5-10 guys that get better than him that are in the league or will be soon. Remember at one time Kirk looked like hot garbage throwing 13 interceptions on primetime vs. the giants. So even a Simien,Bortles,Dak,Mariotta,Winston,Sudfeld, or whoever could suddenly look like a guy who could demand to be the highest paid QB player in the league.

One could say anything at all, but proven production says a great deal more than the imagined success of players that have never done it.

[markmills67]

3 hours ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

The Skins front office are idiots. He has us by the short and curly's. If you have no intention to pay him what he wants then trade him for picks this year and move on. Or just pay the dude and have a good/great QB for the next 4-5 years. Smh.

 

Exactly what i have been saying since the end of the season, I still say that the whole free-agency would have been different with cousins signed to a LTD. If they've no intention of signing him then play McCoy and spend all of the $24m on defense and draft one of the better QB next year using your extra draft picks.

 

HTTR 

[techboy]

10 hours ago, Morneblade said:

I don't think we are going to see "typical" negotiating.

 

No, this IS "typical" negotiating. It's just that reports are that the Redskins are offering Cousins much less than he could get by not signing.

 

Cousins and his agent know they can get 24 million this year guaranteed without doing anything. Signing for less than that would be idiotic.

 

They also know that if they don't sign a long term deal this year, the great likelihood is that they'll get a huge deal next year, either as a pure free agent or on the transition tag. There is some risk of regression in play this year, but that won't affect him too much because teams are quarterback starved and likely to overlook a lot of that especially given the changes in staff. The only real risk would be a career threatening injury. That provides some incentive to take a long term deal now, but Cousins is frugal and could easily live the rest of his life on what he's already made, so it's a risk he can self-insure.

 

It really doesn't make sense for them to accept less than something very close to the guaranteed tag this year and the huge deal they'd get next year, because the risks of not having a long term deal are small and not that catastrophic, removing the main reason people take less... the security.

 

Negotiations don't require meeting in the middle if one side's offer doesn't reflect reality... Otherwise the team would offer veteran minimum and say "Okay... let's meet in the middle at 15 mil per year."  Or Cousins would ask for 60 mil per year fully guaranteed.

 

I think it's also important to remember that Cousins has causes he cares deeply about and is financially savvy enough to understand the impact that kind of money can have on them. I have no doubt that he will refuse a "team friendly" deal not because he's personally "greedy", but because he'd be reducing his ability to support International Justice Mission and other things he cares about.

[purbeast]

This is what I picture running through the FO's head right now...

 

"We are already guaranteed to pay Kirk $24 million this year.  Therefore his current value is $24 million dollars a year.  We already paid him $19 million last year, and if we transition tag him next year we will pay him $29 million.  That will be guaranteed $72 million at $24 million per year for 3 years."

 

"Let's offer him $100 million for 5 years with $60 million guaranteed.  That will value him at $20 million a year for 5 years and give him $60 million in guaranteed money."

 

"It would make sense for Kirk to take that long term offer!  Who could pass up an offer for $20 million a year with $60 million guaranteed, when they are already making $24 million a year with $44 million already guaranteed and a good possibility of $72 million at least guaranteed by next year?  Only an idiot would turn that offer down!"

 

"DERP"

[Pick6]

11 hours ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

The Skins front office are idiots. He has us by the short and curly's. If you have no intention to pay him what he wants then trade him for picks this year and move on. Or just pay the dude and have a good/great QB for the next 4-5 years. Smh.

 

 

This is the problem, Cousins has the leverage here. There is no trade value. Teams know the Skins are kind of stuck. Why would a team give up a high draft pick for a guy that will hit the market in some way next year?

 

Also, I am not in the group that believes this is just going to take awhile. They had a chance last year. They have had opportunities this year. Everyone can play nice on interviews and podcast, but I don't believe this team will matchup on a deal. I need to see pen to paper and hope I eat crow on this.

[markshark84]

The fact of the matter is this may be one of the more intelligent and sophisticated free agents our idiot front office has dealt with.  And as a result, Cousins has won every battle they have fought against one another.  Instead of just offering him the deal he earned last year, they gambled and lost HUGE.  And currently Dumb and Dumber 2.0 PLAN TO MAKE THE SAME MISTAKE AGAIN.  Instead of giving him the contract he has earned, they are trying to lowball him.... again.  And I can give you 1 guess how that will turn out........

 

The fact remains that Cousins is guaranteed 24M this year and next year he'll sign a LTD with whomever that will most likely include a 30M sign and 50M+ guaranteed.  So that's -- at a minimum -- 54-64M (including Y2 salary) in 2 years f---ing years!!!  If our idiot front office isn't willing to start there, WTheF would Cousins sign?  So under the current conditions --- conditions CREATED by the organization and not Cousins ---- any logical front office would have to understand that the "starting point" guaranteed portion is 64M with the length of the deal being 4 or, better, 5 years; and honestly, I'd even go to a 75M "starting point" guaranteed portion considering his year 2 salary (or at the very least a portion) would also be guaranteed on the LTD he receives.   What is there not to understand and why is this taking so long???  I am honestly beginning to wonder if our front office is SO STUPID that they are too dumb to realize Cousins understands his leverage.  Does Snyder really think Cousins would be willing to "take less" to stay in DC considering our rampant and consistent history of gross mismanagement and being completely dysfunctional?  No one "takes less" to play here.  We aren't the Patriots.  Then again, this may be that Cousins realizes what a dumpster fire this franchise is and that Snyder is literally the worst owner in all professional sports.

 

And if they don't sign him by July 15 --- he's as good as gone next year.  Could you imagine Dumb & Dumber 2.0 mulling over a 33M per season "starting point"...... What idiots!!!!!!

 

And all of this is assuming (which no one should) that Cousins is actually naïve enough to want to stay within an organization run by these two dopes. 

[DJHJR86]

The one thing I don't understand is the belief held by some that we can get luck and land another Dak Prescott in the draft.  Prescott was drafted in the 4th round.  Same as Cousins.  We already HAVE a Dak Prescott steal on our hands.  Do you think if Prescott continues to play at a top level for the next 4 years that he's not going to become expensive as well?  Is that what the plan is?  Draft a QB in a late round, hope they pan out and play decent enough for 3-5 years and then draft another and repeat the cycle?  Makes no sense.  If you have a QB worth keeping, which IMO we do, you keep him.  

[Pick6]

59 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

The one thing I don't understand is the belief held by some that we can get luck and land another Dak Prescott in the draft.  Prescott was drafted in the 4th round.  Same as Cousins.  We already HAVE a Dak Prescott steal on our hands.  Do you think if Prescott continues to play at a top level for the next 4 years that he's not going to become expensive as well?  Is that what the plan is?  Draft a QB in a late round, hope they pan out and play decent enough for 3-5 years and then draft another and repeat the cycle?  Makes no sense.  If you have a QB worth keeping, which IMO we do, you keep him.  

 

I am not sure who believes this. I think most of us want Cousins signed. I think a few of us have come to the reality that this FO won't let that happen. This isn't on the fans. This is on Bruce Allen who has an ego too big to allow him to succeed in making logical decisions for this team.

[Skinsinparadise]

Interesting if so.  

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/redskins-casting-wide-net-in-gm-search-that-might-ultimately-result-in-few-takers/

Allen isn’t going anywhere in the short term it seems -- some believe he is a made man at least unless or until Snyder gets a new stadium built -- and that’s a problem. Allen controls the Redskins’ pursue strings, budgets and can effectively veto moves by dissuading the owner from opening the coffers for a particular players (oh, like, say franchise-tag quarterback Kirk Cousins a year ago).

If Allen controls the money -- and he has since he’s been there even during McCloughan’s brief heyday of “personnel control” -- then he controls the building.

 

 

My main fear on the Kirk contract (2016) from a Bruce perspective was what if he convinced Danny not to sign him back then?  I'd rather it would have been Danny-Bruce together seeing it the same way in 2016 versus Bruce sticking out his neck on it solo.  If Bruce stuck his neck out then he'd might want to justify things now to show Danny that his decision didn't cost the team tens of millions of dollars.  Something like:  "Look Danny, Kirk would have cost us 20 million dollars a year then but he won't cost much more than that now in 2017 and if Kirk is asking for more, he's just unreasonably greedy."

 

I've noticed Bruce has gotten to being a polarizing argument of late.  But my point here isn't to delve into pro or anti-Bruce spin.   If Bruce gets a contract done with Kirk I'll hoist him on my shoulders and pat him on the back for a job well done.    But I have some concerns about part of the narrative on the Scot/Bruce story because its clear that the pro-Scot side of the story involves Bruce being against doing the deal in 2015-early 2016.  And I've yet to see a narrative that says otherwise.  

 

I don't know if it went down that way.  But it doesn't seem to be an outlandish narrative -- it seems to fit.   And I hope it isn't so or if it is so Danny can let it go where Bruce can just chalk it up to you can't win every decision.
 

[bobandweave]

Front office only wants that 3rd round compensatory pick

[TheGreek1973]

21 hours ago, wit33 said:

I watched a game between the Skins and Bengals and saw no real difference between both QBs playing in that game. Sure, other factors exist, but just watching it certainly didn't appear the Skins had an edge at the QB position. I was actually surprised at how well Dalton improvised in that game.

 

I think both are in same territory. 

Oh really?  Cousins was playing against a good to very good D Dalton was playing against our D, should expend that thought?  LMAO

 

And yet who brought their team back to tie the game and gave their team a chipshot to win the game in OT?  

[wit33]

8 minutes ago, TheGreek1973 said:

Oh really?  Cousins was playing against a good to very good D Dalton was playing against our D, should expend that thought?  LMAO

 

And yet who brought their team back to tie the game and gave their team a chipshot to win the game in OT?  

 

I understand, it appears I'm taking a shot at Kirk, but I'm not. I don't think many would argue both are in same territory in terms of playing QB. Each falling in the area of being a competent QB who can assist a team in winning games. No indictment on Kirk. 

 

Andy will soon have a fan base at odds whether to pay him top dollar as well. 

 

I must say though, I don't believe you can definitively say Kirk is done growing or can't make another step, but with Andy, he's had 4 years or so now of starting-- it seems we know who he is. It's just right now that puts him with a guy like Kirk. 

[Morneblade]

8 hours ago, techboy said:

 

No, this IS "typical" negotiating. It's just that reports are that the Redskins are offering Cousins much less than he could get by not signing.

 

 

No, it's not. It's quite rare that the numbers are not as negotiable as they are in this case. It's almost unheard of for a players price to be determined before even exploring the market. The number was basically created by the CBA, not the player or his agent. As opposed to what Hankins is doing, and not getting offers because he priced himself out of the market, or Pryor signing a 1 year deal well below what he expected to get.

[Morneblade]

1 hour ago, wit33 said:

 

I understand, it appears I'm taking a shot at Kirk, but I'm not. I don't think many would argue both are in same territory in terms of playing QB. Each falling in the area of being a competent QB who can assist a team in winning games. No indictment on Kirk. 

 

Andy will soon have a fan base at odds whether to pay him top dollar as well. 

 

I must say though, I don't believe you can definitively say Kirk is done growing or can't make another step, but with Andy, he's had 4 years or so now of starting-- it seems we know who he is. It's just right now that puts him with a guy like Kirk. 

 

Actually, I think you would get a lot of people that would argue against that. I think most people think he's a better QB that Andy, and the stats bear that out.

Cousins

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2012	24	WAS	qb	12	3	1	1-0-0	33	48	68.8	466	4	8.3	3	6.3	77	9.7	8.6	14.1	155.3	101.6	79	3	27	8.61	7.53	5.9	1	1	2
2013	25	WAS	qb	12	5	3	0-3-0	81	155	52.3	854	4	2.6	7	4.5	62	5.5	4.0	10.5	170.8	58.4	38.8	5	32	5.14	3.67	3.1			-2
2014	26	WAS	qb	8	6	5	1-4-0	126	204	61.8	1710	10	4.9	9	4.4	81	8.4	7.4	13.6	285.0	86.4	55.8	8	70	7.74	6.77	3.8			4
2015	27	WAS	QB	8	16	16	9-7-0	379	543	69.8	4166	29	5.3	11	2.0	78	7.7	7.8	11.0	260.4	101.6	71	26	186	6.99	7.14	4.6	2	3	12
2016*	28	WAS	QB	8	16	16	8-7-1	406	606	67.0	4917	25	4.1	12	2.0	80	8.1	8.0	12.1	307.3	97.2	71.7	23	190	7.52	7.45	3.7	4	4	15

 

Dalton

Year	Age	Tm	Pos	No.	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Cmp%	Yds	TD	TD%	Int	Int%	Lng	Y/A	AY/A	Y/C	Y/G	Rate	QBR	Sk	Yds	NY/A	ANY/A	Sk%	4QC	GWD	AV
2011*	24	CIN	QB	14	16	16	9-7-0	300	516	58.1	3398	20	3.9	13	2.5	84	6.6	6.2	11.3	212.4	80.4	53.1	24	160	6.00	5.65	4.4	4	4	11
2012	25	CIN	QB	14	16	16	10-6-0	329	528	62.3	3669	27	5.1	16	3.0	59	6.9	6.6	11.2	229.3	87.4	50.7	46	229	5.99	5.68	8.0	1	3	12
2013	26	CIN	QB	14	16	16	11-5-0	363	586	61.9	4293	33	5.6	20	3.4	82	7.3	6.9	11.8	268.3	88.8	58.3	29	182	6.68	6.29	4.7	0	3	14
2014*	27	CIN	QB	14	16	16	10-5-1	309	481	64.2	3398	19	4.0	17	3.5	81	7.1	6.3	11.0	212.4	83.5	53.1	21	124	6.52	5.75	4.2	4	3	11
2015	28	CIN	QB	14	13	13	10-3-0	255	386	66.1	3250	25	6.5	7	1.8	80	8.4	8.9	12.7	250.0	106.2	75.3	20	118	7.71	8.17	4.9	3	3	13
2016*	29	CIN	QB	14	16	16	6-9-1	364	563	64.7	4206	18	3.2	8	1.4	86	7.5	7.5	11.6	262.9	91.8	58.3	41	264	6.53	6.53	6.8	2	1	12

[elkabong82]

9 hours ago, purbeast said:

This is what I picture running through the FO's head right now...

 

 

"DERP"

 

Yeah this team is just awful at putting contracts together to secure star players. That's why they couldn't land Josh Norman.

 

I egt being down on the FO right now, but give credit where it is due. Eric Shaffer is very good at contracts.

[Stadium-Armory]

7 hours ago, Pick6 said:

 

This is the problem, Cousins has the leverage here. There is no trade value. Teams know the Skins are kind of stuck. Why would a team give up a high draft pick for a guy that will hit the market in some way next year?

 

 

 

I don't buy the notion that a team who might need a QB would say to them selves "Let's just wait until next year."   There is no time for coaches and GMs to wait, their jobs are on the line at all times. Plus, if you want him and wait a year, you run the risk of him going to another team.  There is urgency in the NFL and I don't buy the thinking that he has no trade value because he hits free agency next year.

[purbeast]

1 hour ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Yeah this team is just awful at putting contracts together to secure star players. That's why they couldn't land Josh Norman.

 

I egt being down on the FO right now, but give credit where it is due. Eric Shaffer is very good at contracts.

Yes they will pay big for FA's but not their home grown talent.  Always been that way.

[elkabong82]

1 minute ago, purbeast said:

Yes they will pay big for FA's but not their home grown talent.  Always been that way.

 

Jordan Reed is one of the highest paid TEs, Trent Williams one of highest paid LTs