The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[wit33]

7 hours ago, srtman04 said:

 

I'm not blaming Kirk at all.  I'm blaming this highly dysfunctional FO!

 

You could be right, but I think it's just as easily the FO running a business with a player who's treating it as the same. 

[elkabong82]

4 hours ago, Morneblade said:

 

Well, not nearly that much. According to Forbes in 2010 the team was worth 1.6 billion, 2nd behind the Cowboys (which took 1st place from us in 2006). Right now we're worth 2.95 billion, but only in 5th place. So, it's not so much what he has done, but the market in general for the NFL, in which we are actually lagging behind some.

 

 

Odd, last one I read had the team at 3.2 billion. I double-checked though and it is 2.95 and I was recalling the article number for the Pats. Aside from the Cowboys, Skins are within .5 billion of the other 4 in front. Given that all teams' values have increased greatly that's actually made it harder to stay on top. If the team is able to get a new stadium they very well could challenge Cowboys again for top spot and Bruce has been a big part of those talks. 

 

 

[Morneblade]

11 minutes ago, elkabong82 said:

 

Odd, last one I read had the team at 3.2 billion. I double-checked though and it is 2.95 and I was recalling the article number for the Pats. Aside from the Cowboys, Skins are within .5 billion of the other 4 in front. Given that all teams' values have increased greatly that's actually made it harder to stay on top. If the team is able to get a new stadium they very well could challenge Cowboys again for top spot and Bruce has been a big part of those talks. 

 

 

 

Sure, if he manages to get a new stadium that might put us back at #1. But you can argue that Bruce has not been quite as good as say, San Fransisco (which has also past us).

I'm not even saying he has not done a good job there, although he's had a couple dealing that while they worked for the Redskins, have soured relationship with some communities (the deal in Richmond for training camp comes to mind) which might come back to hurt the brand in the long run.

But in the same article, it showed attendance dropping and income from ticket sales. I think those things might be harder to overlook if you are Dan Snyder.

[Morneblade]

Kinda back on topic. Why we should sign the guy to a LTD. Looks at #3

Player	Team	DYAR	Rk	YAR	Rk	DVOA	Rk	VOA	QBR	Rk	Pass	Yards	EYds	TD	FK	FL	INT	C%	DPI	ALEX
M.Ryan	ATL	1,918	1	1,801	1	40.2%	1	37.0%	83.4	1	571	4,693	5,613	38	1	2	7	70.0%	10/171	-0.4
D.Brees	NO	1,581	2	1,467	2	23.0%	4	20.5%	72.1	5	694	4,987	5,885	37	0	4	14	71.1%	5/87	1.4
K.Cousins	WAS	1,342	3	1,223	6	21.5%	5	18.6%	72.1	5	626	4,738	5,137	25	2	2	12	67.3%	7/215	2.4
D.Prescott	DAL	1,301	4	1,224	5	31.5%	3	29.0%	81.7	3	483	3,527	4,228	23	2	4	4	68.1%	4/77	1.2
T.Brady	NE	1,295	5	1,372	3	33.8%	2	36.5%	83.1	2	444	3,441	4,074	28	2	0	2	67.9%	3/64	2.2
A.Rodgers	GB	1,251	6	1,268	4	18.2%	8	18.6%	77.0	4	644	4,190	5,142	40	3	2	6	65.8%	7/239	3.8
D.Carr	OAK	1,169	7	1,044	7	19.9%	6	16.6%	61.8	16	575	3,834	4,624	28	0	3	6	64.2%	19/287	1.0
B.Roethlisberger	PIT	776	8	760	9	11.2%	9	10.7%	66.6	10	524	3,653	3,850	29	2	2	13	64.8%	8/121	4.2
M.Stafford	DET	764	9	760	8	7.3%	14	7.2%	70.7	8	628	4,094	4,379	24	1	2	10	65.8%	13/162	1.7
A.Luck	IND	744	10	689	10	8.0%	12	6.6%	71.0	7	585	3,961	4,145	31	1	4	13	64.0%	10/229	1.4

[TD_washingtonredskins]

On 3/17/2017 at 5:25 PM, Warhead36 said:

McLoughan left for two reasons...

 

1. The team didn't support him publically when Cooley suspected him of returning to alcohol abuse(whether true or not)

 

2. (bigger reason)He was overruled multiple times on personnel decisions, some major some minor, when he was told he'd have control over the roster when hired

 

[Alexa]

The one thing Kirk needs to do better is put the ball in the endzone. He needs to have a season where he's getting 35 or more TD passes. If he were better in the red area last year I do believe that he'd have a contract. Brady had more TD's and played in 4 less games...

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

5 minutes ago, Alexa said:

The one thing Kirk needs to do better is put the ball in the endzone. He needs to have a season where he's getting 35 or more TD passes. If he were better in the red area last year I do believe that he'd have a contract. Brady had more TD's and played in 4 less games...

 

I think he'd have a contact if Bruce had offered a fair deal .... enough information has been put out there at this point to make opinions .. my opinion is that Bruce screwed up either by low balling Kirk or not wanting him. Either way, Bruce didnt sign our franchise QB to a LTD when we could have and the redskins football ppl (Jay and Scot) wanted to.  

[petedaddy]

16 minutes ago, Alexa said:

The one thing Kirk needs to do better is put the ball in the endzone. He needs to have a season where he's getting 35 or more TD passes. If he were better in the red area last year I do believe that he'd have a contract. Brady had more TD's and played in 4 less games...

 

Well he was one of the top in the league in the red zone in 2015 and he didn't get a contract...

 

Also, if you factor in Kirk's rushing TDs, he had more TDs than Brady but we all understand that Kirk was not great in the red zone in 2016

 

[ncr2h]

On 3/9/2017 at 0:29 PM, Hooper said:

I'm starting to think Snyder is actually cash-poor and can't swing a massive signing bonus for Cousins.

 

Because 23 to 24 million a year isn't crazy when guys like Mike Glennon are getting 15 per.

 

 

 

Forbes just updated their billionaires list today, and the entry on Dan Snyder lends credence to your theory.

 

https://www.forbes.com/profile/dan-snyder/?list=rtb

 

Quote

Dan Snyder

REAL TIME NET WORTH — as of 3/20/17

$2.2 B

Dan Snyder's sports team, the Washington Redskins, unveiled an early plan in March for a 60,000-seat stadium that will include a moat for kayakers, a tailgating park and a museum. Snyder bought the NFL team for $800 million in 1999. It has earned only 3 division titles since and no trips to the Super Bowl, but is now worth $2.95 billion thanks to league TV deals and sponsorship agreements. Despite years of controversy, Snyder refuses to consider changing the Redskins' name. His fortune stems from a marketing business he started after dropping out of college; it initially sold advertisements pinned on bulletin boards and distributed product samples. In 1996, he took the company public, making the then 32-year-old the youngest CEO on the New York Stock Exchange at the time. French company Havas bought the business for $2.5 billion in 2000.

 

 

(I don't understand how to use the quote feature.  The comments below are from me, not Forbes.)

 

So Snyder is worth $2.2B, but the Redskins are worth $2.95B.  2 things are interesting about that:

 

1.  Excluding his investment in the Redskins, Snyder is $750M in debt ($2.2B - 2.95B = -0.75B)

2.  Of his $2.2B in net worth, $2.15B is solely due to asset appreciation on his investment in the Redskins franchise (assuming he hasn't liquidated any portion of his ownership). $2.95B - $0.8B = $2.15B.

 

I'm not saying the guy is poor or struggling, and this theory certainly needs to somehow address Snyder's earlier tendency to break the bank on free agents.  However, it's very possible that he has so much of his wealth tied up in an illiquid investment that when you combine

 

1.  the NFL's rapidly expanding salary cap (growing at ~7% per year), and

2.  the money he will need to have on hand for any new stadium deal (likely [hopefully] won't be 100% taxpayer financed, and therefore he will need a few hundred million on hand [even if he finances his portion with debt, the banks will likely require that he has tens of millions on hand as collateral])

 

...it's possible that for him, paying $20+M per year is kind of a big deal.

 

The Redskins account for 134% of Snyder's net worth.  Snyder's main competition (Jones, Kraft) all have $1B+ in assets outside of the market value of their team.  Snyder has -.75B.

[Wildbunny]

1 hour ago, Why am I Mr. Pink? said:

 

I think he'd have a contact if Bruce had offered a fair deal .... enough information has been put out there at this point to make opinions .. my opinion is that Bruce screwed up either by low balling Kirk or not wanting him. Either way, Bruce didnt sign our franchise QB to a LTD when we could have and the redskins football ppl (Jay and Scot) wanted to.  

Can we wait until the 15th of July before saying we didn't sign him to a LTD?

 

Or is my calendar completly screwed?

[Why am I Mr. Pink?]

8 minutes ago, Wildbunny said:

Can we wait until the 15th of July before saying we didn't sign him to a LTD?

 

Or is my calendar completly screwed?

 

Yes, we have until July 15 to sign Kirk to a LTD.

 

I was referring to past - Bruce didnt want to sign Kirk when we could have and when our football guys wanted to.

 

If we end up singing Kirk to a 24M plus deal, it doesnt exonerate Bruce bc Bruce should have done it last year for a more reasonable price and when the football ppl wanted him to.

 

My bone is that our football ball ppl wanted him, Bruce didnt and now we are in this mess of overpaying or letting a franchise Qb go.

 

Bruce should have stayed in his lane.  

[Peregrine]

Dan Snyder is not holding up a deal because of lack of money.  Exhibit A, we have spent up to the cap every year.  Thats ridiculous to say all of the sudden its an issue.  Exhibit B, we are already paying him $24 million this year.  Thats real money.

 

Exhibit C and the most obvious is, the REDSKINS ARE VERY PROFITABLE.  Pre-tax profit was $115 million last year, and $500 million in just the past 3 years alone.  It has absolutely nothing to do with Dan Snyders income and net worth.

[Pick6]

I think the biggest problem is Bruce is a McCoy guy. He knows Cousins is a better QB but in Bruce's mind, how much better is the question? Is it worth this large amount of cap size for Bruce. He wants Cousins cheaper than the market. If Bruce can't get that he will let Cousins walk next season. He won't think the drop off in play will have that much of an impact. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

Even though the thought of Colt McCoy starting for the Skins minus subbing for injury makes me want to throw up, I'll play along.

 

Lets just say Colt for whatever reason were to step in and light it up, wouldn't he then have the power to command similar money as Kirk does today?

 

The only way to get mass production out of the qb position is to either pay big $$$ to a producer or draft a rookie that is instantly successful and pay him minimally until the rookie deal is up.

[Est.1974]

If Synder was short of cash then Scot would still be here, given Scot was going to trade Kirk. That would have saved a few $$$$$.

[XtremeFan55]

3 hours ago, ncr2h said:

 

Forbes just updated their billionaires list today, and the entry on Dan Snyder lends credence to your theory.

 

https://www.forbes.com/profile/dan-snyder/?list=rtb

 

 

Snyder doesn't owned 100% of the Redskins.  He has partners of which one is Dwight Schar founder of NVHomes.   Whatever the Redkins and Stadium is worth then Snyder only owns a portion....majority portion...but still only part.

[Veryoldschool]

At this point it doesn't matter if Snyder is short of cash, discipline, sense, judgement, patience or whatever because he's got a success governor that kicks in screws things up when things are going well.

 

 

[skinsmania123]

4 hours ago, petedaddy said:

 

Well he was one of the top in the league in the red zone in 2015 and he didn't get a contract...

 

Also, if you factor in Kirk's rushing TDs, he had more TDs than Brady but we all understand that Kirk was not great in the red zone in 2016

 

Ok this is a reach.  He digressed in the RZ last year.  Point in fact he went to Reed LESS in 2016 then he did in 2015.  And it defies logic because he proved himself to be a  reliable target.  Reed has shown an ability to get open in the EZ in both 2015-2016.  And too often we had receivers waving their hands, looking for the ball in 2016 because they were wide open.

 

  Look even analysts who think the Skins should offer Cousins a long term deal are very clear that he has to clean up the RZ issues or it is all smoke and mirrors. All potential with no effect.  So you toss a lot of yards.  So what?  Talk to Matt Ryan about that over the last couple of years. The bottom line is you have to get the ball into the EZ and score to win games.  You have to be able to pass effectively within the 15-20 yard line.  Cousins has to settle down in big games and gut them out and he has not shown that.  He is a nervous dude in big games.  

 

   I mean I get it, and I understand the desire to lock Cousin's into a LTD, and hope Doctson, Crowder, Pryor and Reed take him over the hump,  but what I don't get and I will never get is making Cousin's out to be someone he is simply not.  Lies. Damn Lies and Statistics.  Yeah I bet he had more rushing TD's then Brady the 39 year old.    But who wins games when they are on the line?    When Cousin's is able to gut out the big ones I will eat humble pie and shut the hell up.  But until then I think we have Matt Ryan's little brother at QB.  

[Veryoldschool]

1 hour ago, skinsmania123 said:

Ok this is a reach.  He digressed in the RZ last year.  Point in fact he went to Reed LESS in 2016 then he did in 2015.  And it defies logic because he proved himself to be a  reliable target.  Reed has shown an ability to get open in the EZ in both 2015-2016.  And too often we had receivers waving their hands, looking for the ball in 2016 because they were wide open.

 

  Look even analysts who think the Skins should offer Cousins a long term deal are very clear that he has to clean up the RZ issues or it is all smoke and mirrors. All potential with no effect.  So you toss a lot of yards.  So what?  Talk to Matt Ryan about that over the last couple of years. The bottom line is you have to get the ball into the EZ and score to win games.  You have to be able to pass effectively within the 15-20 yard line.  Cousins has to settle down in big games and gut them out and he has not shown that.  He is a nervous dude in big games.  

 

   I mean I get it, and I understand the desire to lock Cousin's into a LTD, and hope Doctson, Crowder, Pryor and Reed take him over the hump,  but what I don't get and I will never get is making Cousin's out to be someone he is simply not.  Lies. Damn Lies and Statistics.  Yeah I bet he had more rushing TD's then Brady the 39 year old.    But who wins games when they are on the line?    When Cousin's is able to gut out the big ones I will eat humble pie and shut the hell up.  But until then I think we have Matt Ryan's little brother at QB.  

 

So the Skins should only pay a QB who plays like Tom Brady in his first 2 years starting?

 

What I don't get and never will get is Redskin fans or ownership who don't truly value a QB who can generate Drew Brees like stats his first 2 years starting and give the first consecutive years of modest success and stability since the early 90's.  That is what I don't get. 

[petedaddy]

1 hour ago, skinsmania123 said:

Ok this is a reach.  He digressed in the RZ last year.  Point in fact he went to Reed LESS in 2016 then he did in 2015.  And it defies logic because he proved himself to be a  reliable target.  Reed has shown an ability to get open in the EZ in both 2015-2016.  And too often we had receivers waving their hands, looking for the ball in 2016 because they were wide open.

 

  Look even analysts who think the Skins should offer Cousins a long term deal are very clear that he has to clean up the RZ issues or it is all smoke and mirrors. All potential with no effect.  So you toss a lot of yards.  So what?  Talk to Matt Ryan about that over the last couple of years. The bottom line is you have to get the ball into the EZ and score to win games.  You have to be able to pass effectively within the 15-20 yard line.  Cousins has to settle down in big games and gut them out and he has not shown that.  He is a nervous dude in big games.  

 

   I mean I get it, and I understand the desire to lock Cousin's into a LTD, and hope Doctson, Crowder, Pryor and Reed take him over the hump,  but what I don't get and I will never get is making Cousin's out to be someone he is simply not.  Lies. Damn Lies and Statistics.  Yeah I bet he had more rushing TD's then Brady the 39 year old.    But who wins games when they are on the line?    When Cousin's is able to gut out the big ones I will eat humble pie and shut the hell up.  But until then I think we have Matt Ryan's little brother at QB.  

 

Isn't digressing changing the subject????

 

That aside... All of this is a little silly...I even said in my post that he did not play well in the red zone in 2016 so not sure what you are even arguing, aside from your belief that you are not sold on Kirk

 

He had one great year in the red zone that the red zone detractors seem to forget... So one great year, one not so great year... Which is the reality... Who knows?  

 

He also has won big games...A trip to Philadelphia with the division title on the line seems to come to mind... Also, a Sunday night football game vs the team who beat us last year in the playoffs... Of course there are things he can improve on but most QBs under 30 don't even sniff Tom Brady and while we're at 99.99% of QBs to ever play the game don't sniff Tom Brady

 

So, if you're waiting for Tom to walk through the door you may have an eternal wait

 

I'll take my chances with the Captain

[Gamebreaker]

Those who forget he was good in the redzone in 2015, also forget all offseason a year ago the knock was he's never beaten a team with a winning record. Now that is behind us, and it's about the redzone now. 

 

He had less bad games in 2016 than he did in 2015. And honestly, I'll take a Matt Ryan(who had similar criticisms before leading his team to a SuperBowl), than what we've had QB for the last two decades. I also have zero faith this FO can find anyone better within the next decade. 

[wit33]

1 hour ago, Gamebreaker said:

Those who forget he was good in the redzone in 2015, also forget all offseason a year ago the knock was he's never beaten a team with a winning record. Now that is behind us, and it's about the redzone now. 

 

He had less bad games in 2016 than he did in 2015. And honestly, I'll take a Matt Ryan(who had similar criticisms before leading his team to a SuperBowl), than what we've had QB for the last two decades. I also have zero faith this FO can find anyone better within the next decade. 

 

There's merit to pointing to his 2015 numbers, but it's just tough to rationalize such poor number this past year. It would seem normal to drop off to average from time to time, but all the way to one of the worst in the league is strange. 

 

What are your thoughts?

[Stefanskins]

34 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

There's merit to pointing to his 2015 numbers, but it's just tough to rationalize such poor number this past year. It would seem normal to drop off to average from time to time, but all the way to one of the worst in the league is strange. 

 

What do do your thoughts?

 

protecting the ball for contract negotiations

 

[clskinsfan]

43 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

There's merit to pointing to his 2015 numbers, but it's just tough to rationalize such poor number this past year. It would seem normal to drop off to average from time to time, but all the way to one of the worst in the league is strange. 

 

What are your thoughts?

 

The red zone passing is certainly concerning. But the most concerning stat to me is TD %. Where Kirk ranked 17th. Those 4900 yards seasons sure are pretty though.

[ncr2h]

Redzone success is not any more statistically meaningful than success on the other 80 yards of the field - given a large enough sample, good QBs will do well in the redzone and bad QBs will do poorly.  Cousins' 2016 redzone performance was likely due to a sample size of only 76 throws.  That's not enough data to draw any definitive conclusions about his abilities.

 

Cousins' 2016 redzone QB rating of 84.6 was just a hair shy of Tom Brady's 2013 redzone QB rating of 86.3.  Notable QBs who have had a single season with sub-90.0 QB ratings in the redzone since 2009 include:

 

Matt Ryan, Matt Stafford (5x), Jay Cutler (5x), Joe Flacco (6x), Tony Romo (2x), Ben Roethlisberger (4x), Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning (6x), Matt Schaub (3x), Philip Rivers (3x), Cam Newton (3x), Andrew Luck (3x), Ryan Tannehill (2x), Carson Palmer (2x), Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Matt Ryan, and Alex Smith

 

Reviewing the numbers, one of the big things that jump out at me is that 2016 was an unusually successful years for QBs in the redzone.  Kirk's 84 passer rating, in a normal year, would be below average but not really near the bottom.  For example there were just 6 teams worse than Kirk's 84.6 rating in 2016.  But, in 2015, there were 12 teams that had a worse rating than 84.6.  Likewise for 2014 (10), 2013 (11), 2012 (11), 2011 (17), 2010 (10), and 2009 (15).

 

In summary, I don't really see why Kirk's 2016 performance in the redzone is any more meaningful that Tom Brady's 2013 rating of 86, Aaron Rodgers' 2015 rating of 77 (5th worst in the league), or the numerous times that solid QBs like Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Romo underperformed in the redzone.  It's a small sample size.

 

(all stats pulled from here: https://www.sportingcharts.com/nfl/stats/quarterback-rating-in-red-zone/2016/)