Kirk Cousins leads NFL in passing yards through Week 8

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 minute ago, Cliffmark1 said:

You are chicken. Take the wager. If i am wrong i will change my sig to say califan knows about statistics. 

And you still haven't said what it is lol...

Do you actually have "statistical modeling" and "pattern matching" data, or are both of those empty phrases to cover the fact that you're just pulling guesses out of your ass? lol...

[mikeDinNYC]

i'm very pleased with the captain this season... and the O line has been fantastic!

[Cliffmark1]

6 hours ago, Califan007 said:

And you still haven't said what it is lol...

Do you actually have "statistical modeling" and "pattern matching" data, or are both of those empty phrases to cover the fact that you're just pulling guesses out of your ass? lol...

Actually i do it for a living and have a lot of math and physics in my background. And the I believe the data from last year was practically exponential (with dampening) in the second half of the year. Such a drastic improvement suggests a pattern. Thus i suggest Kirk will have a great second half of the year. 

 You can make very accurate equations about almost anything, in fact compression algorithms are often equations.  If you want to call me out put your sig on the line  

 

[wit33]

With Kirk having the ability to get rid of the ball quickly, I wonder if the front office will decide to save money on the Oline? No reason to spend big money.

Maybe you let a guy like Moses walk if his price tag is too high. 

These are the type of things that will make Cousins worth a big contract. 

Just a thought. 

[Cliffmark1]

10 minutes ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Actually i do it for a living and have a lot of math and physics in my background. And the I believe the data from last year was practically exponential (with dampening) in the second half of the year. Such a drastic improvement suggests a pattern. Thus i suggest Kirk will have a great second half of the year. 

 You can make very accurate equations about almost anything, in fact compression algorithms are often equations.  If you want to call me out put your sig on the line  

 

I have thought about that. It does seem kirk is happier getting the ball out quickly.

[lavar1156]

My only complaint is how he handles the deep shots. If it's not there right away he immediately goes to the check down instead of moving around and giving the receivers more time to get open. Rarely will DJax not have a safety over top of him. I wish Kirk would be a little more like Aaron Rodgers in those situations. He's too quick to abandon a play, especially when he has more time to scan the field. Very robotic at times.

[wit33]

1 minute ago, lavar1156 said:

My only complaint is how he handles the deep shots. If it's not there right away he immediately goes to the check down instead of moving around and giving the receivers more time to get open. Rarely will DJax not have a safety over top of him. I wish Kirk would be a little more like Aaron Rodgers in those situations. He's too quick to abandon a play, especially when he has more time to scan the field. Very robotic at times.

This is why in my opinion his best game to date was VS the Eagles. He showed some play making skills. Soooo critical for that next level of QB play.

Matt Ryan is his ceiling. 

[wilco_holland]

This is what makes our O so hard to stop sometimes:

RECEIVING STATISTICS
Player	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	Long	TD
Jordan Reed	42	415	9.9	26	3
Jamison Crowder	40	498	12.5	55	4
Pierre Garcon	36	396	11.0	23	1
DeSean Jackson	30	416	13.9	44	1
Chris Thompson	27	211	7.8	38	1
Vernon Davis	23	316	13.7	44	1

Who do you need to cover? If you focus on player A, player B is going to have a big game. If you are open you get the ball. :)

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

6 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Actually i do it for a living and have a lot of math and physics in my background. And the I believe the data from last year was practically exponential (with dampening) in the second half of the year. Such a drastic improvement suggests a pattern. Thus i suggest Kirk will have a great second half of the year. 

 You can make very accurate equations about almost anything, in fact compression algorithms are often equations.  If you want to call me out put your sig on the line  

 

It's like pulling teeth lol...

 

Ok, lemme try another approach:

You said this: "The data says kirk will likely Improve in the second half of 2016 just like 2015." Then when the other poster said the "safe assumption" is to assume Cousins won't go on another hot streak like he did in the last 8 games of the 2015 season you said "As a data guy thats not true. You pick the model most suited to the data. Anything else is not useful."

Nothing I just wrote is incorrect.

My last several posts have said 1) you haven't presented any data, you've only said it exists, and 2) you haven't given any info on the "model" you used to make your claims. You've spent more time detailing your resume' than presenting anything that can be analyzed and critiqued. If this was a peer-based review they'd still be waiting for something to review lol...

So...instead I'll do this: you said that Cousins' improvement last year was so "drastic" that it suggests a pattern.

Is that pattern suggested for any other QBs who had just as drastic an improvement from the first half of a season to the second half of the same season? Why or why not? Cam Newton had damn near the same dramatic improvement last season as Cousins, and his production has fallen back noticeably from that drastic improvement so far this year, just like Cousins. Is the same pattern evident for him as well? Are there other QBs who follow Cousins' production arc from 2015 where the same "pattern" was (or should have been) detected that validates your stance? Have you attempted any comparisons?

Are there qualifiers that separate Cousins from other QBs in your "model", like, say, him being in his first season as fulltime starter versus other QBs having started for multiple seasons? Is that important? Not important? What about someone like Chad Pennington, who--like Cousins--had an almost identical "drastic improvement" from the first half of his first year as fulltime starter, to the second half of that same season...if you applied your model to him retroactively, would it have given you the same pattern that suggests he, too, would have improved drastically from the first half of his 2nd year as starter? If the "pattern" isn't evident for Pennington, why not? What makes him different from Cousins in your trend prediction method?

Are there other external factors that play a role in your exponential trend forcasting, like offensive scheme, supporting cast...hair color lol...whatever?

 

I wouldn't know any of this stuff, because you won't provide me anything other than another list of what your qualifications are lol...

 

Well, that, and calling me "chicken" for not taking your sig bet ("chicken"...what are you, 12? lol).

And about that...I feel like the sig bet is a distraction on your part. For starters, I never claimed that Cousins won't improve the rest of the season like he did last season...so you're wanting me to make a bet on a stance I never made, but one you assigned to me instead. The only thing I argued against was that there isn't any data existing that shows Cousins will once again go on another hot streak like he did in 2015. That doesn't mean he won't...it only means that I don't believe any data exists that could predict it. And as of me writing this sentence, you've still yet to provide any.

Second, even IF I wanted to take the stance you assigned to me and take the sig bet, you haven't set any parameters for what constitutes Cousins "improving" in the second half of the season from the first half of the season. That's damn important, because I would assume that my stance would be that Cousins doesn't replicate his "drastic" improvement this year...not that he wouldn't improve at all.

And again, I never took the stance that he won't improve drastically...I took the stance that you don't have "data" that shows he will lol.

And until I see your data, that remains my stance.

 

 

[Wildbunny]

7 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Actually i do it for a living and have a lot of math and physics in my background. And the I believe the data from last year was practically exponential (with dampening) in the second half of the year. Such a drastic improvement suggests a pattern. Thus i suggest Kirk will have a great second half of the year. 

 You can make very accurate equations about almost anything, in fact compression algorithms are often equations.  If you want to call me out put your sig on the line  

 

I always seen patterns, datas and stuff like that as being great tools when dealing with pure numbers and physics, because well, they work within certain rules.

It's less than accurate when dealing with human being because they are so unpredictable that you just never know how that will turn out in the end.

[Llevron]

8 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

My only complaint is how he handles the deep shots. If it's not there right away he immediately goes to the check down instead of moving around and giving the receivers more time to get open. Rarely will DJax not have a safety over top of him. I wish Kirk would be a little more like Aaron Rodgers in those situations. He's too quick to abandon a play, especially when he has more time to scan the field. Very robotic at times.

I think it's a gift and a curse for him. Him being robotic is what makes him a good system qb and out system is good. 

He will work on it I'm sure but right now I think if he just masters the system he will be more than good enough, just shy of great. 

[ThomasRoane]

8 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

 Very robotic at times.

 

If you say Kirk is robotic then I wonder if you've watched the last three games.  In all three he has been using his feet to extend and make plays.  You could say that about Kirk in the past but three games in a row is not an anomaly.  And I don't think it's a concentrated effort just to show he can go off schedule.  I think it's more that he's comfortable in his expanding role as a playmaker rather than just a distributor.  That comes from having a greater comfort level in the offense.  Kirk is showing that the ceiling everyone tried to put over his head was far too low.  He's only halfway thru his second season as a starter. 

[TheGreek1973]

9 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Actually i do it for a living and have a lot of math and physics in my background. And the I believe the data from last year was practically exponential (with dampening) in the second half of the year. Such a drastic improvement suggests a pattern. Thus i suggest Kirk will have a great second half of the year. 

 You can make very accurate equations about almost anything, in fact compression algorithms are often equations.  If you want to call me out put your sig on the line  

 

I don't want to butt in Cliffmark but I totally agree with you.  My background is also Physics so I know exactly what you are trying to say.  Do me a favor if Califan takes the bet forget the sig, get him to change that picture of that dude.  He is freaks me out, so much so that if he was in front of me laughing like that I would punch his lights out.  LOL

[arftech]

Kirk has been awesome but I want to see improvement in him making more off-scheduled plays where **** sometimes breakdown.  The question is does those types of plays fit within his skill set?

Hail Em Up!

[WilberMarshall]

Kirk is good but he can become borderline great if not great.  Just needs to improve on things wish I think he can. 

1. He needs to improve his AWARENESS and be a better situational player. Seen a bunch of times when we could've gotten the other team with too many men on the field for easy yardage.  But he does NOT do it.  Even on short yardage where the opposing team is lollygagging he does not do a quick snap.  Need to improve on that.  There's no rule that you must allow the defense to set before you snap the ball.  Or when they are slow in getting players off and on the field that you must go into a long winded cadence. 
2.  

Glad to see him extend plays -- was lacking in the first couple of games.

He needs to look at the other side of the field when the play breaks down.  At times he is so fixated to on one side of the field that misses his other outlets.

Glad to see him step up the pocket. 

He has more than earned the money but there's room for improvement.  Good thing is that most of his 'faults' are fixable.  The Coaches can help by not putting us in bad situations with predictable playcalling based on personnel groupings.

 

 

Ps., we could do with better coaching especially as it relates to 'Situational football'.  Coach it to the point of it being redundant and irritating to the players.  At times I feel we are not a very smart football team.  

 

PAY THE MAN!

[RandyHolt]

28 minutes ago, arftech said:

Kirk has been awesome but I want to see improvement in him making more off-scheduled plays where **** sometimes breakdown.  The question is does those types of plays fit within his skill set?

Hail Em Up!

Good question.  

I am starting to wonder if when he falls behind schedule, that the wide outs are not coached up enough to help him out, give him an outlet. 

We have seen time and time again WRs finish their routes and stop, for decades on end, and on all teams.  Look back, start slowly jogging towards the QB...  I would like to think coaching has to come into play here. It's not a huge deal, but there must be guys able to get open vs tossing it into the stands seemingly almost every time time he steps out of the pocket.  When he does chuck it out of bounds, the lone WR in the picture is always blanketed.

That all said, we are getting enough yards on offense to not force the issue, but the OS plays seem like backbreakers and demoralize a D that "had everything covered". Like that Dalton scramble ARG. 

OT - since hail mary's have been a struggle, how about rolling out right? Heck, roll the pocket over, too. Make those 3 DL run, and buy time for the boys to get deep. 

[Duckus]

I have seen enough. Kirk is far above any replacement we will get in FA or in the draft. Time to sign a contract and hope we can put the pieces together for a run in the next 5 years. 

I was glad they used the franchise tag because I wanted to see more, but I am satisfied. 

What we are asking Kirk to do this year is bonkers. 321 pass attempts through 8 games. He is carrying a massive load, and for the most part holding up.

 

[Koolblue13]

Looking at those stats for yards above, we're going to have 4 guys looking at 1,000. That's incredible.

[PortisBetts]

Unless we think Sudfeld can develop, and/or McCoy can be a stop gap, we have to keep Cousins. It seems like a long shot to expect a 6th rounder to develop and how long would we have to use McCoy as a stop gap until either Sudfeld is ready, or draft someone else who is ready. The draft this year is expected to be extra horrible and we wouldnt be in a position for any surefire bets anyway. Pay Cousins, continue to build the team through the draft and continue this upward trend of better and better football.

Although, if we let Cousins walk, I wouldn't mind making a call to Philip Rivers...

Edit- Cousins is clearly choice #1

[Aireskoi]

I was listening to Sirius the other day and Ron Jaworski said that Kirk Cousins is the Rodney Dangerfield of QBs.  He said (paraphrasing) he gets no respect around the league media even though he continues to play at a high level.  He continued that Kirk makes play after play and then as soon as he makes a mistake everyone jumps on him like he's the only QB that makes them.

Can't find a link for it anywhere, maybe someone else heard it and can add to it or clean up my memory of it.

 

[FrFan]

After 8 games : 12 TD 7 INT 67%  completion  93.1 QB rating

Last year :  29 TD 11 INT 69.8% completion 101.6 QB rating

I wish he can elevate his game during the second part of the season like he did last year and throw less INTs

[ThomasRoane]

54 minutes ago, FrFan said:

After 8 games : 12 TD 7 INT 67%  completion  93.1 QB rating

Last year :  29 TD 11 INT 69.8% completion 101.6 QB rating

I wish he can elevate his game during the second part of the season like he did last year and throw less INTs

 

Cooley brought up a great point I think would help with that.  Keep the best weapons on the field at the same time.  Rotating guys in and out makes it hard to develop chemistry.  Kirk has to adjust to the strengths and preferences for each individual receiver.  The only players rotating should be Kelley and Thompson.  Other than that - it should be Reed, Crowder, Davis, and Garcon.  Sprinkle in DJax for Garcon for some deep shots.  This isn't Pop Warner where everyone gets to play.  I don't want to see Grant, Smith, or Ross over any of the other guys.  You could keep the defense from subbing and quick snap them.  The run or pass would work with that group.  Kirk would then gain a better comfort level with the weapons he has. 

[Darth Tater]

1 hour ago, FrFan said:

After 8 games : 12 TD 7 INT 67%  completion  93.1 QB rating

Last year :  29 TD 11 INT 69.8% completion 101.6 QB rating

I wish he can elevate his game during the second part of the season like he did last year and throw less INTs

Well, if he can elevate his game like last year, he is on pace to have fewer interceptions as he had 9 at this point last year.  He would also be on pace to throw more tds as he only had 10 at this time.

[FrFan]

33 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Well, if he can elevate his game like last year, he is on pace to have fewer interceptions as he had 9 at this point last year.  He would also be on pace to throw more tds as he only had 10 at this time.

51 minutes ago, ThomasRoane said:

Cooley brought up a great point I think would help with that. 

How would you guys rate the coaching staff responsability about that (if there is any) ? For example shall we use more an air Coryell type of offense ?

[Tsailand]

12 hours ago, wilco_holland said:

This is what makes our O so hard to stop sometimes:

RECEIVING STATISTICS
Player	Rec	Yds	Yds/Rec	Long	TD
Jordan Reed	42	415	9.9	26	3
Jamison Crowder	40	498	12.5	55	4
Pierre Garcon	36	396	11.0	23	1
DeSean Jackson	30	416	13.9	44	1
Chris Thompson	27	211	7.8	38	1
Vernon Davis	23	316	13.7	44	1

Who do you need to cover? If you focus on player A, player B is going to have a big game. If you are open you get the ball.

 

Yeah, and it makes fantasy awful.  My league has a big bench so I've managed to pick up Reed,  Jackson, Garcon, Thompson, and Kelley.  This week I had to guess which to start and guessed wrong of course.  I am this close to dropping all of them except Reed.

The real takeaway from the chart is that Kirk can spread it around.