Kirk Cousins leads NFL in passing yards through Week 8

[Cliffmark1]

12 hours ago, Califan007 said:

 

 

I wouldn't know any of this stuff, because you won't provide me anything other than another list of what your qualifications are lol.

And until I see your data, that remains my stance.

 

 

His performance broke resistance. I can't educate you on pattern matching, diff eq, ci, and equation modeling via a forum. 

I think you have to look at the actual data for example my data is based on Kirk only this year. Last year I had to use some other qbs because the sample size was small and truthfully it still is.  You can't say look your KC model fails when applied to CP. it doesnt work.

What i predict kcs numbers to be before losing TW.  

>30 tds. Likely 35 

<16 ints.  likely 15 

>2.5% improvement in completions. Likely 5%. 

[illone]

So you're saying because you are good at math and stuff that you have a crystal ball?

C'maaan man.  math can't predict that stuff or you would be sitting on a beach sipping drinks out of an umbrella straw because you would have accurately predicted every football season, game, etc and bilked vegas for millions.

Math doesnt work the way you are saying it does.  I could care less what your model says, it literally cannot predict the future.

[Cliffmark1]

1 hour ago, illone said:

So you're saying because you are good at math and stuff that you have a crystal ball?

C'maaan man.  math can't predict that stuff or you would be sitting on a beach sipping drinks out of an umbrella straw because you would have accurately predicted every football season, game, etc and bilked vegas for millions.

Math doesnt work the way you are saying it does.  I could care less what your model says, it literally cannot predict the future.

I was one of the first big kirk supporters because of the "numbers", which turned out to be accurate.  I matched his early playing to drew brees. I took a lot of flack.  Really the skins should hire me lol. I do spend a lot of time on vacation and spend a lot of time in vegas.  The point spreads are choosen for a reason. The max and min bets at blackjack are too...most people who use math for bets I know play the markets.

Math can predict almost anything. You just need enough data for a high enough confidence interval. 

Marketing, business performance and processes, And even sports performance can be predicted to a certain degree but never to 100% by definition.  But around 90%, 95% even 98% confidence intervals aren't unusual. 

Just a super basic example a bowler who has hit 300 is more likely to bowl a 300 than someone who bowls in the 100s although theoretically both could hit that number.  A golfer with a low handicap is likely to play better based on past performance than a high handicap golfer. 

[desertbeagle85]

I could careless about yards.

He's got 12 TDs and 7 INTs. That's  not good enough.

He'll probably be back next year and I'm happy with that.

He cost himself some money though it looks like and I'm also fine with that.

[lavar1156]

Kirk has been great. But he's not worth a top 5 annual contract. He doesn't make enough plays by himself to warrant that kind of money. I'd offer him no more than 6-8 QB money but that's it. We'd be better off rolling with McCoy for a year or two.

[DM72]

3 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Kirk has been great. But he's not worth a top 5 annual contract. He doesn't make enough plays by himself to warrant that kind of money. I'd offer him no more than 6-8 QB money but that's it. We'd be better off rolling with McCoy for a year or two.

 

You're out of your mind and Kirk is worth way more than 6-8M. 

[TheItalianStallion]

2 minutes ago, DM72 said:

 

You're out of your mind and Kirk is worth way more than 6-8M. 

 

6-8 QB, as in "QB who ranks 6th-8th in the league," not 6-8 mil.

[DM72]

5 minutes ago, TheItalianStallion said:

 

6-8 QB, as in "QB who ranks 6th-8th in the league," not 6-8 mil.

 

My bad. In that case, I agree with what Lavar said. All but the "we should roll with McCoy."

[Wildbunny]

6 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

Math can predict almost anything. You just need enough data for a high enough confidence interval. 

Marketing, business performance and processes, And even sports performance can be predicted to a certain degree but never to 100% by definition.  But around 90%, 95% even 98% confidence intervals aren't unusual.

Well, they should tell ya that someday the Redskins will win another superbowl, that even the Eagles will finally win one.

They'll hardly tells you when.

3 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

Kirk has been great. But he's not worth a top 5 annual contract. He doesn't make enough plays by himself to warrant that kind of money. I'd offer him no more than 6-8 QB money but that's it. We'd be better off rolling with McCoy for a year or two.

6-8 QB range?

I'm pretty sure you're throwing that without knowing what kind of QB money that means.

Here is the actual salary for every QB: http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Right now, being in the 6-8 range is 21M a year (Roethlisberger, Manning and Palmer). So when it's stated that he'll get between 20/25M is accurate to what you disagree somehow. Because well, he and his agent can argue that he's better than Luck or Flacco. Which is top first money. And that is not even discussing the rise of the Salary Cap.

[skins island connection]

10 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

 

Math can predict almost anything. You just need enough data for a high enough confidence interval. 

Marketing, business performance and processes, And even sports performance can be predicted to a certain degree but never to 100% by definition.  But around 90%, 95% even 98% confidence intervals aren't unusual. 

Just a super basic example a bowler who has hit 300 is more likely to bowl a 300 than someone who bowls in the 100s although theoretically both could hit that number.  A golfer with a low handicap is likely to play better based on past performance than a high handicap golfer. 

 That sounds more like the law of averages with a sprinkling of luck and bourbon.

I don't discount numbers or stats, but I don't use them to choose a winner. There are so many other factors that play into it that it makes the numbers ideal impossible unless under precise conditions.

[Koolblue13]

12 hours ago, Cliffmark1 said:

I was one of the first big kirk supporters

I called him being our QB 4 spots before we drafted him and I suck at math.

[lavar1156]

6 hours ago, Wildbunny said:

Well, they should tell ya that someday the Redskins will win another superbowl, that even the Eagles will finally win one.

They'll hardly tells you when.

6-8 QB range?

I'm pretty sure you're throwing that without knowing what kind of QB money that means.

Here is the actual salary for every QB: http://overthecap.com/position/quarterback/

Right now, being in the 6-8 range is 21M a year (Roethlisberger, Manning and Palmer). So when it's stated that he'll get between 20/25M is accurate to what you disagree somehow. Because well, he and his agent can argue that he's better than Luck or Flacco. Which is top first money. And that is not even discussing the rise of the Salary Cap.

I mean 6-8 in terms of money. Not neccessarily rank. I don't want us to turn into the Ravens or the Colts.

[TheGreek1973]

13 hours ago, illone said:

So you're saying because you are good at math and stuff that you have a crystal ball?

C'maaan man.  math can't predict that stuff or you would be sitting on a beach sipping drinks out of an umbrella straw because you would have accurately predicted every football season, game, etc and bilked vegas for millions.

Math doesnt work the way you are saying it does.  I could care less what your model says, it literally cannot predict the future.

LOL.  You can't be serious.  I guess you never went near any probability and statistics classes in college...or did you even go to college.  Everything in today's world (stock picking, marketing, economics, engineering, hell even medicine) has something to do with mathematics and probability theory.

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, TheGreek1973 said:

LOL.  You can't be serious.  I guess you never went near any probability and statistics classes in college...or did you even go to college.  Everything in today's world (stock picking, marketing, economics, engineering, hell even medicine) has something to do with mathematics and probability theory.

Not in my world  

[lavar1156]

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

[Voice_of_Reason]

16 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

He said that where?  

[RandyHolt]

My two cents on Kirk elevating his game last year.

There is no easy switch a player can throw on.

Kirk didn't elevate his game those last months of 2015, McVay did. Outside of minimizing INTs, Kirk is the same guy he has been for years now.

McVay went from conservative run run pass, to full on unpredictable to close out the year. Coupled with a healthy Jordan Reed back, he schemed up awesome plays that led us into the playoffs.

Taking nothing away from Kirk but also the OL gave him time, Ribs was in much to many's chagrin and helped form a pocket; all which cannot be discounted when grading a QB.

I know how we roll though, the QB gets all the credit, the OC and foot soldiers get no credit. Maybe the OL get a meal.

[RonArtest15]

22 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

LOL.  So stupid.

Skins wouldn't have invested 20m in Kirk had they felt Colt was good enough to be the starter. 

I'm 99.9% sure, barring injury, he'll get his long term deal here in DC. 

[TheGreek1973]

25 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

Great.  Leave it to the front office to eff this up also.  I mean they have such a stellar past with making the correct decisions why not this which will affect us for the next 5-7 years at least.

[HOF44]

10 hours ago, lavar1156 said:

Kirk has been great. But he's not worth a top 5 annual contract. He doesn't make enough plays by himself to warrant that kind of money. I'd offer him no more than 6-8 QB money but that's it. We'd be better off rolling with McCoy for a year or two.

Sounds about right.  We just have to remember to look at the percentage of cap those players received at the time they signed.  People get caught up in raw numbers.  Kirk may end up with a top 5 in straight contract number, but when you look at percentage of cap be in that 6-8 range.  The rising cap sometimes makes it look like we overpay when we don't. 

[theTruthTeller]

22 minutes ago, RonArtest15 said:

LOL.  So stupid.

Skins wouldn't have invested 20m in Kirk had they felt Colt was good enough to be the starter. 

I'm 99.9% sure, barring injury, he'll get his long term deal here in DC. 

Sounds like stealth negotiations have begun.  Pretty soon we'll be hearing rumors about teams that are willing to make him the highest paid QB in the NFL.

[ncr2h]

49 minutes ago, lavar1156 said:

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

If that's what he heard, then our front office is a joke.

At 3.7%, Kirk is having the second worst season of his career in terms of TD rate.  The 3.7% TD rate he's had during this TD slump is still about 20% better than Colt Mccoy's career average of 3.1%.  In fact, Colt has failed to achieve a TD rate of better than 3.1% in each of the 3 seasons in which he's had to throw more than 17 passes (i.e. anytime he's gotten significant playing time, he's thrown fewer TDs than Kirk).  Kirk also has 6 rushing TDs on 55 attempts for his career, compared to Colt's 2 TDs on 118 rushes.

As I mentioned earlier in this thread, TDs are a flukey way to judge QB skill.  They go up and down every season and can be boosted significantly by playmakers at the skill positions making great plays, poor defenses, or great scheming.  If you want to talk in mathematical terms, Kirk has thrown 1271 passes in his career, 59 of which were TDs (4.6%).  Why do we place so much emphasis on that 4.6% of his overall sample, and throw away the other 95.4% of his throws where he has been remarkably efficient (#1, #6, and #5 in the NFL in NY/A in 2014, 2015, and 2016, respectively)?

Even if Colt did throw lots of TDs (he doesn't), there are some glaring holes in his resume.  He's missed 9 games due to injury despite playing significant time in just 25 games in his career.  In fact, he's missed at least 3 weeks due to injury in every season in which he has started at least 1 game.  Why does this happen?  He takes tons of sacks.  Colt sports a career sack rate of 8.4%, more than double Kirk's 4.0% rate.  In 2014, the same year where Kirk achieved one of the best sack rates by a Redskins QB since Rypien's 1991 season, Colt was sacked on 11.7% of dropbacks.  Even when they don't result in fumbles (Mccoy has just 2 fewer fumbles than Cousins despite 8 fewer starts, and along with Mark Sanchez and Michael Vick, is one of just 3 players in NFL history to fumble 4 times in a game on 2 separate occasions) or injuries, sacks kill drives.  According to data from 2001 to 2008, taking a single sack cuts your chances of moving the chains by 67%.  Mccoy's 77 career sacks likely won't be surpassed by Cousins until nearly mid-way through next season.

[HOF44]

1 hour ago, lavar1156 said:

Mike Jones said this morning there are some people inside Redskins Park that wonder how much of a drop off there would be with Colt McCoy. The main factor being that Cousins isn't throwing enough TD passes.

Probably Snyder!  lol Hey I know!!! Lets let Kirk lead them down the field then bring in McCoy inside the 20's!!   The circus can return!

[Gizmo 3squire]

That is a horrible idea.

With that being said, I knew that Kirk not scoring or getting enough touches to players wide open would haunt this team and start the rumor mill. You can get yards for days, and lead the league, but if you can't score all of that is pointless, which is honestly true.

We will more than likely keep Kirk, but he's not getting some large pay day as folks on this site predicted. Even if we do make the playoffs. Only way that happens is if we make it to the Superbowl AND win. Dare I say we still may have some eyes on a QB in the later rounds or continue to develop Sudfield.

[ncr2h]

6 minutes ago, Gizmo 3squire said:

That is a horrible idea.

With that being said, I knew that Kirk not scoring or getting enough touches to players wide open would haunt this team and start the rumor mill. You can get yards for days, and lead the league, but if you can't score all of that is pointless, which is honestly true.

We will more than likely keep Kirk, but he's not getting some large pay day as folks on this site predicted. Even if we do make the playoffs. Only way that happens is if we make it to the Superbowl AND win. Dare I say we still may have some eyes on a QB in the later rounds or continue to develop Sudfield.

Kirk Cousins' career stats compare favorably to Andrew Luck's, and Luck is the highest paid player in the league.  I have a long post about this saved up, but essentially Luck has had 1 season of play that was at a level that Kirk hasn't achieved (Luck's 2014 season).  Looking at the 47 other games on Luck's resume, Kirk's numbers are better than Luck's by a pretty wide margin.  Even including Luck's great 2014 season, his career ANY/A is just 2% better than NFL average (Kirk's is 5% better).  If we admit that TDs and INTs are streaky stats that don't say as much about QB play as we traditionally think they do, Luck's NY/A has been NFL average over the course of his career, compared to Kirk's being 11% better than average (see the "Advanced Passing" sections of their profootballreference stats pages).

Luck and Flacco are two of the highest paid players in the league, and Kirk's numbers compare favorably to both.  Kirk is going to be making north of $18M next year at a minimum unless he gets massively injured or regresses substantially.