theTruthTeller

Except the Giants would love the Skins to trade away their future to jump into the top 5 in a desperation move. The Giants can wait until next year for a quarterback, if necessary - their fans already are expecting them to suck this year and they have plenty of other holes to fill. And even though the Giants have had only one winning seaason since 2012, they've had a winning record against the Skins since that time (8-4). I don't expect them, or anyone else, to react to any of the Skins moves. The Skins need to worry about the Skins.

The last time the Skins traded for a quarterback who had some sort of sustained success in DC..... .... Billy Kilmer! (we gave up two draft choices and linebacker Tom Roussel - it was George Allen's first trade for Washington) While I was researching how quarterbacks got here, I came across this funny story as told by Billy Kilmer (who, it oddly turns out, was good friends with Cowboys owner Clint Murchison): (link)

$10M/yr is where the 5th highest paid RG (David DiCastro) was at according to Overthecap.com. I probably should have put $10M++/yr to make that clear. As always, a lot of these contracts are structured to assuage the player's feelings. If you look at Trai Turner's pay schedule, you'll see that year 4 is iffy and year 5 he'll likely be looking for another job. It's probably a 3-year, 8.75M/yr deal. Ali Marpet's contract is confusing me because OTC says that it has $26M in guarantees, but looking at the specifics, there is no downside in cutting him after year 2.

Scherff will turn 28 this season and although he probably has two contracts left in his career, you have to think he is expecting his next contract to be the one that sets him up for retirement. I would think he'd want top five money for RGs, which is $10M+/year. Which means that the Skins could save money this year by giving him a new contract. Of course, Bruce may wisely think that after an injury it would make sense to pay him the $12M extension and make this a prove-it year. Then, after he is a pro-bowler, offer him $10M/year in 2020. When he wants $11M/year after "proving it", franchise him for $13M. In 2021, offer him $11M/yr and tag him for $15.6M while waiting for a counteroffer. Of course, the counteroffer will never come because at $15.6M, he'll be the highest paid RG in history and he'll be a season away from signing with a SB contender. Its a solid strategy, one that's paid off for a master negotiator like Bruce time and time again.

Bruce said he'd be signing some big names and he's coming through. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie. Twenty-five letters. Twenty-six if you count the "-". Holy cow!

Because Case could effectively nix any deal that didn't present an opportunity to compete for a starting position by refusing to reduce his $18M salary. And because he'd like to go the the Super Bowl next year.

I'm having a hard time with this. The only incentive for Keenum to reduce his salary in a trade is that he'd end up with a one-year prove it contract with a team that needed a starter. I can't imagine his agent would be stupid enough not to put a no trade clause in the new contract to prevent him from being shipped to a different team with an established starter. In a few days he'd be able to pick his team and still make $7M If Arizona wanted Keenum as a backup, they didn't need the Skins as an intermediary. Denver just wanted to free up $3.5M in cap space and Arizona has plenty of cap space. It's not like its been any big secret that he was available.

The problem is that his Denver contract for 2019 is $18M with $7M guaranteed. No one is going to trade for him unless Denver throws in something of significant value . If they waive Keenum, which they undoubtedly will, every team's offer will (financially) look the same to him, unless the offer is above $7M (or they offer a multi-year contract with guarantees in years 2020 and beyond), since Denver has to make up the difference between whatever salary he agrees to in 2019 and $7M. So, every team will offer the minimum to Keenum (except in the odd circumstance that someone thinks he's worth more than $7M) and he'll pick his favorite team. At 31yo, if I were his agent, I'd advise him pick the team with the best receivers so that he can get a decent contract in 2020. I'm doubtful that the Redskins would be that team.

Just throwing this out there. Were we to trade up to #3 to get Murray, that's an (approximately) $30M fully guaranteed contact over 4 years and a slightly less than $6M this year (1/3 of the remaining cap space). I have no reason to believe that the OL line will be healthy this year and no reason to believe that there will be a go to receiver. Even if Murray is cheap relative to veteran franchise quarterbacks, I don't see the value to the Skins in having good quarterback this year. Other than retention of Jay's and Bruce's jobs, which I don't value very highly.

I wonder if Dan and Bruce feel the need to make a big splash in the draft to show that they really are masters at player acquisition. And by "big splash", I mean trading away significant assets to move up in the first round to get their guy. Or, less likely, they could trade down with a division rival, like they did when they conned Dallas into moving up to pick Demarcus Lawrence. But, somehow, I just don't think they'll be comfortable just picking the BAP at 15. No matter who they pick at 15, it will be either "I wonder what other teams know that we don't" or another lackluster pick. Not likely to sell a lot of season tickets, especially if its a quarterback not named Murray. Saying what he did is clearly in his best interest and it was the smart thing to do. But, right now, he's probably pretty sure he's a top 5 pick. Using last year's numbers, the difference between the contract given to the first pick ($32.6M over four years) and the 15th pick ($13.5M over four years) is pretty substantial. Still way better than the MLB contract if you look at the first four years, but the salary at 15 is low enough to look at the longevity of baseball players and the longevity of Redskins quarterbacks. It's all a guessing game, but I wouldn't put it in as a sure thing that he wouldn't jump back to baseball if he falls far enough. We'll see if he shows up at spring training. If he does, it's a pretty good sign that the A's are working him hard.

This would be Bruce's welcome gift to whomever is unfortunate enough to be the next GM.

I'm not sure that's true. Admittedly, the number of decent FA QBs that might come here is minuscule, but no one is going to come for 3rd string money, knowing that if they signed and Alex did come back at training camp, they'd probably get dumped at a time when the entire market for ****ty QBs would already have been filled by Fitzmagic, Cassell, Osweiller, etc. As for a trade, I have to believe that fleecing Bruce is something that all other GMs see not just as their job, but as a matter of professional pride. Like if you make a fair trade with Bruce, then you have to pick up the tab for all of the other GM's drinks at the Pro Bowl. Or all the other GMs will be slapping you on the back about the trade and when you get home, your wife will ask you why you have 30 post-it notes on your back that say "I lost my **** to Bruce Almighty".

I fail to see how pretending that Smith might be back next year gives even the tiniest illusion of real leverage. It's not like every agent and GM didn't see what happened with their own eyes. So what if Bruce calls someone and says "you know, we're not desperate because, you know, Alex will probably back by week 3 and, you know, his leg will be stronger than ever, you know, and we may start him at running back." No one's going to give us a deal because Alex might be coming back. Anyone who has a decent backup to trade, and that's not many teams, will be drooling when Bruce calls.

It's going to get confusing when someone shouts out "Fat Rob get your ass over here!"