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Alex Smith Trade Thread (Details Inside)


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31 minutes ago, Stadium-Armory said:

We won't tag him unless we already have agreed to a deal with someone.

Which is basically what I was saying.

25 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

So the fact that Denver has a bad cap situation could help us.

They don't have a bad cap situation. 

 

And there is no chance, nor should there be, that we back out of the Smith deal. Any scenario that revolves around that is nonsense. 

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It didn't "revolve" around it, I was just pointing it out as some card they could try to play. And Denver's cap situation is not good, especially compared to other teams with tons of cash. They'd have to either cut some guys or do some massive backloading on Kirk's contract, which is exactly what Kirk apparently doesn't want. So we could tell him that unless Denver robs the Federal Reserve to pay him we'll match whatever they do and figure out the Smith thing as we go. The point is that we could make it very possible that Kirk would be stuck here for years if he takes Denver's offer. Or at the very least make the process really ****ty for him. Who knows.

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The more I think about this trade, the less sense it makes that we offered Fuller instead of Josh Norman. Would they have taken his contract? Maybe not, but that should have been the line. This trade only benefits us monetarily on a very significant level for one season and actually managed to open up a need that we never had before. It's terribly illogical.

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3 minutes ago, mistertim said:

It didn't "revolve" around it, I was just pointing it out as some card they could try to play. And Denver's cap situation is not good, especially compared to other teams with tons of cash. They'd have to either cut some guys or do some massive backloading on Kirk's contract, which is exactly what Kirk apparently doesn't want. So we could tell him that unless Denver robs the Federal Reserve to pay him we'll match whatever they do and figure out the Smith thing as we go. The point is that we could make it very possible that Kirk would be stuck here for years if he takes Denver's offer. Or at the very least make the process really ****ty for him. Who knows.

Except it does revolve around that, otherwise we've signed Alex Smith to a deal with 71 mil guaranteed and matched a deal with Kirk with probably more than that guaranteed. At that point, we're stuck, because surely both of those deals have signing bonuses that we'd be stuck with, even if we traded them.  And there's nothing to "figure out later" to get around it.

 

So, yeah, we can't even think about matching an offer sheet for Cousins unless we're also thinking about reneging on the Smith deal, which we won't. So the whole idea is a nothing.

 

And Denver will rid themselves of Talib, which gives them about 40 mil in cap space, with several players they can easily restructure to create more, and no big FAs of note. They are in fine cap shape.

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4 minutes ago, Bacon said:

The more I think about this trade, the less sense it makes that we offered Fuller instead of Josh Norman. Would they have taken his contract? Maybe not, but that should have been the line. This trade only benefits us monetarily on a very significant level for one season and actually managed to open up a need that we never had before. It's terribly illogical.

There's zero chance they would have accepted Norman instead of Fuller. When I heard the deal announced, I was pretty sure it had to be him (with a slight chance it was Ioannidis or Preston Smith. I was hoping against hope for the latter). I actually logged in here to say so, but that was confirmed before I could.  There had to be more value for them to do the deal now, not waiting for other teams to up their offers. Norman and his big contract wasn't it. 

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3 hours ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Yes it will be. How it's exactly structured is a wait and see, but he won't get the 17 mil and then an additional 71 mil guaranteed. You have my own guarantee on that. If it turns out to be a true 71 mil guaranteed, then that money will be made up of a signing bonus and whatever guaranteed salaries in 18, 19 and 20.

 

I really hope you're right. It'll be interesting to see how much is actually guaranteed here. Here's to hoping he is literally only 17 on the cap this year to save some cash for FA.

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6 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Casserly talking on 106.7 Junkies this morning said most GM's had Fabian Moreau rated higher than Fuller.  I really liked Fuller but maybe they can develop Moreau this year like they did Fuller last year.

I totally get that, and really believe fabian has elite talent. But why not fuller and moreau as our future ... I just don't see the value in smith trade. Plus 3rd round draft picks are pretty good.  I'm going to see how this plays out, but man it seems crazy to me right now. 

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For all of you saying Kirk has absolutely zero incentive to sign on to a trade deal.... if he believes there is a chance Denver moves on from him then keep this quote in mind.... 

“Is money a part of it? Sure. Is it the only thing? No,” Cousins said Tuesday on “Pro Football Talk Live.” “It’s about winning, and that’s what I want more than anything. So I’m going to be willing to make sacrifices or do what has to be done to make sure I’m in the best possible position to win, and that’s what the focus is going to be.”

 

From: https://nypost.com/2018/01/31/nfl-execs-weigh-in-on-the-kirk-cousins-conundrum/

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Two things:

 

The sign and trade option for Kirk is now off the table. No reason whatsoever for Team Cousins to agree to that kinda deal. 

 

Second, the Skins being perpetually in “win now” mode means they’ll make a splash in free agency. And that means no 3rd round comp pick for Kirk in 2019. 

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8 minutes ago, LightningBuggs said:

Two things:

 

The sign and trade option for Kirk is now off the table. No reason whatsoever for Team Cousins to agree to that kinda deal. 

 

Second, the Skins being perpetually in “win now” mode means they’ll make a splash in free agency. And that means no 3rd round comp pick for Kirk in 2019. 

Denver has the #5 pick in the draft. If Cousins wants to be a Bronco, and is worried they might get all hot and bothered over a QB at the combine then it is absolutely in his interests to work something out now, secure his future in a place he thinks he can win now. The alternative being gamble for hitting the bidding war and still ending up in a good spot but realising that is just as likely to cost him a shot at winning and he's going to have to suck it up in Cleveland. To do that deal, Denver almost HAVE to trade Talib to get the cap room for Cousins. They're going to let Talib walk for $1 mill dead cap over trading him to us and getting exclusive access to negotiating with Cousins for a month and zero dead cap? Give me a break.

 

That scenario makes the assumption that Kirk wants to be a Bronco. See above quote about how important he feels it is to end up in a situation where he can win.

 

I'm not saying it happens, I'm not saying it's even likely, but to say it's impossible or there's no reason at all Kirk would do it is silly. There are a few reasons he might do it, contingent on him really wanting to end up in a spot where he can actually win.

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9 hours ago, skins2victory said:

Now if we claim that we are doing this, Kirk doesn't get a choice right???  People saying that he wont play nice and sign a tag for us. Well, if he doesn't sign it, then he will miss out on the 2018 season. Am I wrong here??  He will be forced to sign the tag if he wants to play this year, no other options for him at that point if we designate this tag to him??

 

But you cant tag somebody without the cap space on hand if they did sign it.  So we'd basically have to keep $30+ mil in cap space laying around just in case.  So we could forget improving the team screwing around with Kirk.

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10 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Casserly talking on 106.7 Junkies this morning said most GM's had Fabian Moreau rated higher than Fuller.  I really liked Fuller but maybe they can develop Moreau this year like they did Fuller last year.

 

That's what I was thinking. People forget that Moreau was supposed to be a steal in the draft and would've been a first round talent if not for injury.  With so many guys in front of him, he just didnt get much chance to play last year.

 

Now I get Fuller had shown a high level, while Moreau is still on potential, but that probably factored into the calculus.

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3 hours ago, UKskins said:

For all of you saying Kirk has absolutely zero incentive to sign on to a trade deal.... if he believes there is a chance Denver moves on from him then keep this quote in mind.... 

“Is money a part of it? Sure. Is it the only thing? No,” Cousins said Tuesday on “Pro Football Talk Live.” “It’s about winning, and that’s what I want more than anything. So I’m going to be willing to make sacrifices or do what has to be done to make sure I’m in the best possible position to win, and that’s what the focus is going to be.”

 

From: https://nypost.com/2018/01/31/nfl-execs-weigh-in-on-the-kirk-cousins-conundrum/

 

And where is Denver going to move on to?  If Denver moves on, Kirk has plenty of suitors.  

 

And frankly, I'm not do sure Denver is that much better than the other options for Kirk where he would forsake them to engage in shenanigans trying to get to Denver.

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2 minutes ago, justice98 said:

 

And where is Denver going to move on to?  If Denver moves ok, Kirk has plenty of suitors.  

 

And frankly, I'm not do sure Denver is that much better than the other options for Kirk where he would forsake them to engage in shenanigans trying to get there.

Like I said, they have the #5 pick and the combine happens before Free Agency. There's always something new and shiny at the combine...

Who are the other options for Kirk? Jets? Browns? Looks like Jags are going to give Bortles another shot. The market for Cousins isn't all that great in terms of where he could land. Vikings I could see being more attractive than Denver, but there's a realistic chance they just keep hold of Keenum. Bills - maybe but they don't have much cap space for a bidding war. Cutting Tyrod would get them to around $45mill so they're going to need some restructures or Kirk to give them a bone on the deal. Cardinals can't afford him. Dolphins can't afford him. Giants are grooming a QB under Eli.

 

So of the QB needy teams, the only likely landing spots are Denver, Jets, Browns, with an outside shot at the Bills or Vikes. If Vikings are in for him then that makes a lot of sense. If they aren't then he really doesn't have all that many options.

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You know what sucks?

 

Getting Alex Smith is basically admitting we cannot draft and develop QBs, even in a deep draft class.  All this, in an era when young QBs have had unparalleled success very early in their careers. It's basically a snub at Jay and his staff while screaming - just win now!

 

Use Colt for a few months, use the cap space to address other needs, and test the kid out later in the year, if we tank we tank and we'll get a top pick next year. If he does well, bingo we have a QB.  You will never succeed if you never try.  The beauty of a tank is you get a better pick in every round, something that gets overlooked as some just focus on that first rounder.

 

I have a bad feeling that Jay will grow frustrated with Alex's hesitation to throw deep/into coverage. Look how long it took to get Kirk to throw fiddy fiddy balls.  Kirk wouldn't even do it in practice just last summer.  Bah, if you cannot beat em, join em. We better draft a hands back. Maybe even 2.

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5 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

You know what sucks?

 

Getting Alex Smith is basically admitting we cannot draft and develop QBs, even in a deep draft class.  All this, in an era when young QBs have had unparalleled success very early in their careers. It's basically a snub at Jay and his staff while screaming - just win now!

 

Use Colt for a few months, use the cap space to address other needs, and test the kid out later in the year, if we tank we tank and we'll get a top pick next year. If he does well, bingo we have a QB.  You will never succeed if you never try.  The beauty of a tank is you get a better pick in every round, something that gets overlooked as some just focus on that first rounder.

 

I have a bad feeling that Jay will grow frustrated with Alex's hesitation to throw deep/into coverage. Look how long it took to get Kirk to throw fiddy fiddy balls.  Kirk wouldn't even do it in practice just last summer.  Bah, if you cannot beat em, join em. We better draft a hands back. Maybe even 2.

This is correct to some degree but you don’t need to tank a season to draft and develop a QB. The FO knows getting Smith will keeps the fans still interested while we all tune in on Sundays. They will still draft and groom a guy they want while we still have Smith who can win games. 

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The problem with pumping the tires on Fabian or others, is that we may need to replace more than just Fuller.  Part of being an NFL DB is proving you can physically withstand 16 games - nothing to take for granted.  I thought I read that Norman may be a cap casualty, and didn't have a great year regardless. Smith ain't cheap so we don't have much cap savings vs tagging Kirk. Breeland is going to cost us a pretty penny to retain him. It wouldn't surprise me if both are gone sooner than later. Fuller is already gone. We may well rethink about jettisoning Norman and Breeland, but the fact remains we looted the defense (Fuller) for offense.

 

Edit: And we will need to replace Fabian.

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