If Josh decides to have the process here in 24, would you be for or against?

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

 

Quote

If you got something more to add I'm going to respond to it in a more appropriate thread, losing as much as possible to get Chase Young because a geauni pig coulda made that pick it was such a "no-brainer" shows its clearly more complicated then jus losing to get as high a pick as possible because a good front office might done the same thing, but okay:

@Renegade7

I know this was meant for Conn, but this spoke to me as well.

 

You cite the Chase Young pick as an example that losing for a high pick isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  Fair enough, a pick can be squandered.

 

But what is the value in winning games that don’t lead to the playoffs?  Particularly for a regime on the outs.  If you are talking year one, maybe even two of a total rebuild - perhaps there is some cultural value to winning games that don’t result in a playoff appearance.  There is absolutely no cultural value to winning those same games down the stretch when a complete overhaul

is coming in the offseason.

[Skinsinparadise]

Eagles over the years trade players, trade down in the draft for future draft picks.  Future oriented moves.

 

Keeping either Sweat or Young go just so they can get another half season out of them versus likely a high pick -- is malpractice IMO.  But we can bet that's what Ron is going to do.

[Renegade7]

34 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

 

@Renegade7

I know this was meant for Conn, but this spoke to me as well.

 

You cite the Chase Young pick as an example that losing for a high pick isn’t all it’s cracked up to be.  Fair enough, a pick can be squandered.

 

But what is the value in winning games that don’t lead to the playoffs?  Particularly for a regime on the outs.  If you are talking year one, maybe even two of a total rebuild - perhaps there is some cultural value to winning games that don’t result in a playoff appearance.  There is absolutely no cultural value to winning those same games down the stretch when a complete overhaul

is coming in the offseason.

 

That's a fair question, and thanks for moving this convo to this thread.

 

A post I made in here right before yours talks about the importance of building a winning culture and trying to lose is the opposite of that.

 

When I hear "overhaul", I'm thinking maybe the coaching staff and front office more then the roster we have.

 

We do need to overhaul the offensive line amd linebacking core, but I believe we already have a QB.  He has plenty of weapons to throw to.  We've already locked up arguably the best DT combo in the league contract-wise.  The ramifications of the change at secondary coaching couldn't be more obvious, now I'm torn on how good Curl and Forrest are after I've been making case to protect them and not make more holes then we already have trying to replace them.

 

The roster doesn't need to be nuked, everything else does, imo.  So if we aren't nuking the roster, why nuke the season for higher draft picks?

 

Again, this is jus my opinion here, but I can't process developing Howell and trying to lose games at the same time.  We need to make sure EB is or is not the guy, because I want him to get the first Crack at interview here for HC.  Huge part of building a winning organization is continuity.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Renegade7

[Daniel.redskins]

40 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

 

The ramifications of the change at secondary coaching couldn't be more obvious, now I'm torn on how good Curl and Forrest are after I've been making case to protect them and not make more holes then we already have trying to replace them.

Nope. Nuke the entire secondary. If I'm not mistaken, we only have 1 interception this year which has to be league's worst. Everyone gone, even Forbes. If we can trade Forbes for a 6th round pick, it's an upgrade.

 

I stand corrected. We have 2 picks, but I really don't think Forbes actually caught it.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Daniel.redskins

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

31 minutes ago, Renegade7 said:

Again, this is jus my opinion here, but I can't process developing Howell and trying to lose games at the same time.  We need to make sure EB is or is not the guy, because I want him to get the first Crack at interview here for HC.  Huge part of building a winning organization is continuity.

Given what our defense is giving up, it’s trial by fire for Howell no matter what. Bienemy‘s only real chance to be the guy here or anywhere relies on him developing Howell into a guy a new regime has no question is a bonafide starter in the league.

 

They both will get an opportunity to prove themselves, obviously in less than ideal circumstances.

 

I don’t really see the org purposely tanking, so it’s not something you have to worry about.  I expect a lot of comings and goings though with a new regime, not so much for continuity.

[Renegade7]

25 minutes ago, Daniel.redskins said:

Nope. Nuke the entire secondary. If I'm not mistaken, we only have 1 interception this year which has to be league's worst. Everyone gone, even Forbes. If we can trade Forbes for a 6th round pick, it's an upgrade.

 

I stand corrected. We have 2 picks, but I really don't think Forbes actually caught it.

 

I need more time to feel that way. The only two things we changed was adding a first round pick to that group and lose their coach, all that talent that was perfectly fine last year once Curl was healthy and defense settled down is still there.

 

Nuking and rebuild takes time, I agree it's a concern, but we can't overhaul the oline and secondary in one offseason, hard as that is we may have to pick one.

17 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

Given what our defense is giving up, it’s trial by fire for Howell no matter what. Bienemy‘s only real chance to be the guy here or anywhere relies on him developing Howell into a guy a new regime has no question is a bonafide starter in the league.

 

They both will get an opportunity to prove themselves, obviously in less than ideal circumstances.

 

I don’t really see the org purposely tanking, so it’s not something you have to worry about.  I expect a lot of comings and goings though with a new regime, not so much for continuity.

 

Yea, writing is on the wall regarding a lot of things outside the roster groups i mentioned.

 

If EB isn't kept, then we're talkin 3 different coordinators for Howell in three years.

 

Maybe I'm trying to avoid that more then in should, but it's because I've seen that movie before here.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Renegade7

[PeterMP]

7 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

 

*sigh...

 

I bolded that line because I even said that in the post you responded to yet cropped in order to make your response.  So I have concerns you even read it before deciding to call me ignorant and stupid.

 

Most people I've seen talk about The Process understand even if they don't know every detail that it was intentionally losing multiple seasons in a row for highest draft picks they could get.

 

Saying tanking is typically to one season but The Process is completely different because it involved multiple...ok...

 

Once upon a time i started a thread on tanking and found an article showing the math of front officies intentionally losing for high picks versus those that didnt.  Its not new, most sports fans get tanking has been around for a while, the problem continues to be how rarely it works. 

 

Basically the math said typically teams that choose to lose intentionally are bad front officies to begin with and draft poorly even with the high picks. Again, 76ers only have one of those lottery picks left on the team (Embiid), so this to me is evidence to support that. 

 

Good front officies typically dont try to intentionally lose, but because they are good they have higher rate of success on their draft picks even if they arent high as teams that tank or got through The Process.

 

Over nearly a century of professional sports thats what the law of averages says about that.  Good for teams that that worked for, the vast majority it didnt and odds are high we'd jus be another.  So again, hard pass.

 

The thread i started is archived now, but below is a similar piece to one of a couple i used in that thread with respectable math in it (written after Hinkie resigned) that came to a similar conclusion:

 

 

https://www.exploringthemind.com/human-behaviour/is-tanking-an-effective-strategy-in-the-nba.html

 

I cant speak to the Astros trying to be in last place multiple seasons in a row like thats hard or something.  Nationals started their stint in DC with three 100 lose seasons in a row, i do not remember us intentionally trying to do that.

 

Plenty of baseball teams I look at the standings over the years and they are almost always in last place.  Is that their version of The Process or they just stuck on stupid?   

 

Yes, I edited part of your post out, but you also talked about teams losing intentionally not winning.  In fact, it does happen.

 

Obviously, you have to have a good GM.  Part of the Sixers problem came down to the people making the picks didn't pick good players.

 

The Nationals absolutely essentially tanked those early years in DC.  There was an even a name for it.  It was called the "the plan".

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_Washington_Nationals

 

""The Plan", as it became known, was a long-range rebuilding and restructuring of the team from the ground up. This plan included investing in the farm system and the draft, and having a suitable team to go along with their new stadium."

 

Go back and look at the free agents they signed or even their players they kept those years, and that's in a league without a salary cap.  Teams are bad multiple years in a row in baseball for 1 of 2 reasons:

 

1.  Their owners are cheap, don't care, and don't hire good people (the Pirates, White Sox, etc.)

2.  They're rebuilding.

 

(And the 2 aren't mutually exclusive.  The White Sox, traded their best players (e.g. Chris Sale to the Red Sox), were intentionally bad for a few years to try to get better, and have still ended up bad because the guy that ran their rebuild wasn't competent and they hired bad managers.)

 

The Nationals were bad those years because they spent essentially no money in free agency bringing in good players.  That's intentional.  Even their own players.  Not re-signing Soriano or anybody to replace him was an intentional decision with an eye to being bad.

 

Looking at the paper you cited, it is funny how they mentioned the Spurs GM being worth wins.  Let's see building through the draft or free agency.

 

Drafted David Robinson (1st pick over all).

 

Drafted Tim Duncan (1st pick over all and it is widely acknowledged they tanked by not having David Robinson come back and play the last month or so of the season).

 

The season before another prospect that's generally considered a generational talent what to do the Spurs do?  They trade their best player to the Hawks for draft picks.

And they traded what was probably their 2nd best player (Poeltl) in the middle of the season.  And they didn't sign any good players even though they were millions of dollars under the salary cap.

 

The Spurs and Pop tanked last year.

 

But yes, you need a good GM.  As I've already said in this thread:

 

"But in the end, it is still going to be about how much you understand value and do a good job drafting.  If you understand value and draft well, any team can rebuild in the NFL without going through something like a process because you don't get the same value for your assets and taking back bad contracts."

 

OKC and Houston will fail if they do a bad job of picking players.

 

(With respect to the paper you cited, I'd also point even I acknowledge not all teams are equivalent and a difference between the NBA and the NFL is that for NBA their appears to be more destination cities than in the NFL.  NBA players want to go play in certain cities and often are happy to force themselves to LA.  Given the current landscape, it makes no sense for the Clippers or the Lakers to go through to tank or go through a process. You can throw the Heat/Miami into that mix.  

 

It does not appear as if OKC is ever going to have the same cache.  And everybody associated with tanking/a process and the NBA knows that.  I'd love to see a work up of the same data throwing out the 2 LA teams and Miami.)

 

I also don't think a process has to be multiple years, especially in the NBA.  The key is to be sure you have players/assets.  For the Sixers, it ended up being multiple years because the player they got year 1 (Noel) and 3 (Okafor) weren't very good, and then Embiid ended up missing 2 seasons being injured.  If they had gotten a healthy Embiid year 1, I don't think things would have needed to go that long.  

 

If Victor Wembanyama is as good as most people think he is going to be, the Spurs are going to get good just by being bad 1 year.  The Process is born out of the recognition that players like him don't come along very often.  And from the trades they did make, they have some reasonably good draft picks going forward.  The Spurs likely have pulled of a process in one year (or really a few because they were pretty bad to get Murray.)

Edited October 8, 2023 by PeterMP

[Riggo#44]

On 10/6/2023 at 1:46 PM, xxprodigyxx said:

as long as the process doesn't have 76ers results and we don't have to sign ben simmons to a long term deal, sure.

 

I wouldn't mind making the playoffs six straight years, considering we we've made the playoffs six total times in the last 30...

I also wouldn't mind seeing what he did with the Devils, playoffs aside.

[Riggo#44]

15 minutes ago, PeterMP said:

Go back and look at the free agents they signed or even their players they kept those years, and that's in a league without a salary cap.  Teams are bad multiple years in a row in baseball for 1 of 2 reasons:

 

1.  Their owners are cheap, don't care, and don't hire good people (the Pirates, White Sox, etc.)

2.  They're rebuilding.

 

And the 2 aren't mutually exclusive.

 

The list goes on: Houston was horrible, even whiffed on their 1-1 pick of Mark Appel, and have been dominant since, the Cubs sold everyone off and are on the cusp of being really good again, , the Orioles are really good now after losing 100+ 4 out of 5 years (even though they're both categories. Angelos sucks on just about every level.) In the NFL, the Dolphins are looking really good after punting a couple of years.

 

I'd hate to see them sell everyone off, but if it leads to a team like the Dolphins have? I'd think about it. 

[RVAskins]

I don't think you need to blow it all up. The problem we have is that we have players starting that should be 2nd or 3rd string rotational players and not starters. I think we need a new GM, scouting department and coaching staff to go through the roster and figure out what we have and don't have.

[PeterMP]

4 hours ago, Renegade7 said:

We do need to overhaul the offensive line amd linebacking core, but I believe we already have a QB.  He has plenty of weapons to throw to.  We've already locked up arguably the best DT combo in the league contract-wise.

 

I'm less sold on Howell than you are.  But I absolutely do believe if you are going to win a championship, they are going to need better skill position players.

 

I'm pretty sure they are going to need an AJ Brown like player to really compete for a championship with Howell, and I don't think McLaurin, Dotson, or Thomas are that level of player.

 

It is also hard to believe that we have the best DT combo in the league the way teams are running against us.  

 

(And I want to be clear, I don't think we should or need to blow it up.  I don't think going through something like the process makes as much sense in the NFL for a number of reasons as it does for most teams in the NBA and many teams in MLB.  They need to get a GM in that can draft, evaluate talent, and understands value.  But I also don't think they are as close to being really good as you seem to think they are.)

Edited October 8, 2023 by PeterMP

[Renegade7]

1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

 

I'm less sold on Howell than you are.  But I absolutely do believe if you are going to win a championship, they are going to need better skill position players.

 

I'm pretty sure they are going to need an AJ Brown like player to really compete for a championship with Howell, and I don't think McLaurin, Dotson, or Thomas are that level of player.

 

It is also hard to believe that we have the best DT combo in the league the way teams are running against us.  

 

(And I want to be clear, I don't think we should or need to blow it up.  I don't think going through something like the process makes as much sense in the NFL for a number of reasons as it does for most teams in the NBA and many teams in MLB.  They need to get a GM in that can draft, evaluate talent, and understands value.  But I also don't think they are as close to being really good as you seem to think they are.)

 

Your feelings on Howell, McClaurin, Allen and Payne don't suprise me, so my only retort on that is we're doing exactly what I feared we'd do is start slow again.

 

I'd need to end of this season to really say which stars or starters aren't who we think they, they do this every year (enough for me to want to move on from Ron, getting hot late doesn't matter when games like the Bears game can be enough to make it too little too late).

 

The DTs are mentioned in every broadcast how they are game planned for. I though it was agreed McClaurin's main knock keeping him from being in AJ level is he isn't a freak athlete, but does everything else you can ask with what he has.

 

I get it's only 5 starts in on Howell, so there's a part of that sees good enough to hold off making QB a priority.  Even if he isn't the future he's proving to be at least a serviceable stop gap to keep from getting desperate at that position with everything else we have to fix.

 

This is a completely different conversation on what we need if we also need QB, imo.  I did see a tweet where Ron mentioned what sounded to me like his staff was going to try and micro-manage the players less at their request, it made what I saw in the Bears game look like a revolt against that, especially on defense, so we'll see if we look more like what we should sooner rather then later. 

 

Talent level typically doesn't change mid-season, so them constantly playing better in 2nd half then 1st half of seasons should be submitted as evidence to wait until season is over to make sure what we really looking at and what we really need.  I agree we need more, I personally jus need more time to make sure what outside of what I already mentioned, like oline and linebacker, that's jus me though.

Edited October 8, 2023 by Renegade7

[PeterMP]

I've got no problem with the waiting to see how things turn out as the year goes on.

 

In terms of them being far away, this last draft also scares me.  The only guy that I was reasonably sure would be a good (not great) long term player in the NFL was Quan, and he can't even really get on the field.  Which makes me think that he must have an attitude, discipline, or some other issue that didn't show up in his college tape.

 

But if this turns into a draft full of misses with nobody that's a starter and few contributors, that'll set the next regime back.

Edited October 8, 2023 by PeterMP

[Redwards]

I'm down for anything the HOG decides needs to be done.  Hell, it'd be the first time in over two decades that an honest to god plan has actually been implemented.  

 

You can't put a limit on trust.  You either do or don't.  I trust this ownership group to get this thing right.  And I for one am ready and willing to give them the time to do it.  If we're sitting here 4 years from now having not moved an inch as a franchise, then it's time for some furrowed brows and questioning.  However, I don't feel that scenario is going to take place.  

 

Once this current regime is history, it'll be the first time in forever that I'll be all-in emotionally.  I'm starving to resurrect those day as a fan.  I'd kill to be invested so deeply that this franchise can hurt me again.  I've been ambivalent for so long that I'd all but given up the dream of being invested to that degree again.  I was convinced that I'd die (hopefully and old man) without feeling anything close to what I felt for the fist 28 years of my life when it came to this franchise.  Josh and his group have my trust.  

Edited October 8, 2023 by Redwards

[xxprodigyxx]

4 hours ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I wouldn't mind making the playoffs six straight years, considering we we've made the playoffs six total times in the last 30...

I also wouldn't mind seeing what he did with the Devils, playoffs aside.

we say that now, but i know us. we'll be just as unhappy as we are now by the 6th year of playoffs with no championship lol.

[BleedBNG]

Just get rid of Rivera, Rio, and Mayhew. These 3 are holding us back.

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, xxprodigyxx said:

we say that now, but i know us. we'll be just as unhappy as we are now by the 6th year of playoffs with no championship lol.

 

Lets be honest. People will be calling for the next coaches head by week 3 if he isn't 3-0 with a margin of victory of at least 24 points.

[Conn]

2 hours ago, BleedBNG said:

Just get rid of Rivera, Rio, and Mayhew. These 3 are holding us back.

The assistants are bad and mostly under-qualified as well. Whole staff needs to go, there are no quick fixes imo

[CobraCommander]

Step 1. Hire a GM.

Step 2. GM Figures out the rest.

[DWinzit]

24 minutes ago, CobraCommander said:

Step 1. Hire a GM.

Step 2. GM Figures out the rest.

Step 1 would need to be - create a GM vacancy so a new one could be hired

[CobraCommander]

12 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Step 1 would need to be - create a GM vacancy so a new one could be hired

🙄

[DWinzit]

7 minutes ago, CobraCommander said:

🙄

Guess you didn't like my response 

You must cut before you hire. It's mainly a question of when and who.

No one is going to argue once a new GM is in place they should be the one making the calls (whether others have his ear or not aside) 

[MrJL]

We don't have the players to pull it off. The only guys who would get a big return would be McLauren, Payne and Allen.

 

That's not to say everyone else is a scrub, but basically the draft pick we get for them wouldn't likely be enough to replace their production and they wouldn't help us to much with salary

[Stone Cold]

I still think we are a great off-season away from being a true contender.  We need all the appropriate fo changes made and an entirely new coaching staff brought in with philosophies that highlight our strengths and masks our weaknesses.  Draft OL, LB heavy and be coached to win instead of to not lose.  We’re too close to tear it all down.  All that said, if we hire a personnel savy gm, I’d be confident in a quick turnaround with the right coaching staff 

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

On 10/6/2023 at 11:47 AM, PeterMP said:

This isn't something that is as feasible in the NFL because of the differences in salary cap and signing bonuses.

 

And then as part of that, taking back bad contracts isn't as easy.  A lot of part of a process in the NBA is taking back bad contracts and getting additional assets.

 

Let's consider trading McLaurin.  There are two problems, first his signing bonus affects our cap.  Starting next season even per a year, he makes a good bit of money so that then also affects the other teams cap.  In the NBA, you'd balance that out by taking back a bad contract and get even more in the trade by doing so.  But anybody they have making much money also probably had a signing bonus and so as soon as the other team trades that player that affects their cap.

 

Often the big trades (e.g. Tyreek Hill) are still on rookie contracts so are cheap.  The Mcafferey trade got the Panthers a 2nd, 3rd and 2 4th round picks.  But that makes it not the same as a process in the NBA where a good part of the objective is to get picks that can turn into high picks to get elite players.

 

The Sixers process started with trading Jrue Holiday.  Who was that lower level All Star player.  That got the Sixers the 6th pick over all in that draft and a top 5 protected future first round pick.  A similar player doesn't get a similar haul in the NFL because differences in the salary cap and how signing bonuses are counted.

End thread.