The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[RVAskins]

38 minutes ago, Command The 414 said:

I wonder what teams? And for a starting role or as a back up? 

My guess is the UFL.

[illone]

30 minutes ago, woodpecker said:

thanks but nobody really cares what you think!
 

😜

 

 

😂

 

My kids agree with this post...

 

Everyone agrees with this post.

[Ghost of]

59 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

6. There is always a draft day surprise.  Somebody is picked WAY higher than expected, or falls like a rock.  I'm going to call my shot: I think the player who is going to inexplicably fall is McCarthy.  Though, in a strange way, I wouldn't be shocked if it was Daniels.  Thor doesn't think McCarthy gets past 5.  I wouldn't be shocked if he's taken in the teens.  Part of this is because Thor is typically wrong.  Part of it is I think the Michigan, National Championship, Harbaugh and good agent effect are all giving him a shine that his play never deserved.  And for the most part, GMs will see through that.  Now, if we end up picking him somehow, I'll try and get behind it, but it would totally be the "I have a bad feeling about this" Star Wars gif. And I could be wrong about McCarthy.  

 

 

 

Awhile ago in this thread someone said something about "well if they somehow end up with McCarthy you'll be getting his authentic jersey anyway" and you said you had family that had more than enough. My question is: Were you referring to family who were Michiganders/Michigan fans and what is your favorite college team?

[WashingtonRedWolves]

15 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 

 

Same for Howell and Williams. Daniels needs Visit Mickey D's and down of those Big Mac meals. 

Nah he needs to be downing those mass gainer shakes that are like 1200 cal per shake

[Ghost of]

10 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

😂

 

My kids agree with this post...

 

Everyone agrees with this post.

[illone]

2 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

 

Awhile ago in this thread someone said something about "well if they somehow end up with McCarthy you'll be getting his authentic jersey anyway" and you said you had family that had more than enough. My question is: Were you referring to family who were Michiganders/Michigan fans and what is your favorite college team?

 

 

That was me after hitting him with the Rose Bowl highlights to demonstrate JJ's clutch throws in the 4th qtr... He responded by demonstrating how each throw in that game wasnt NFL worthy, even though JJ won the game...

 

I sense zero Anti Michigan bias. None at all, nothing to see here🤣

[Voice_of_Reason]

17 minutes ago, Ghost of said:

 

Awhile ago in this thread someone said something about "well if they somehow end up with McCarthy you'll be getting his authentic jersey anyway" and you said you had family that had more than enough. My question is: Were you referring to family who were Michiganders/Michigan fans and what is your favorite college team?

I have family in Ann Arbor.  They are huge Michigan fans.  
 

I went to William and Mary, and have no college football allegiances. I don’t watch college football almost at all.  

10 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

That was me after hitting him with the Rose Bowl highlights to demonstrate JJ's clutch throws in the 4th qtr... He responded by demonstrating how each throw in that game wasnt NFL worthy, even though JJ won the game...

 

I sense zero Anti Michigan bias. None at all, nothing to see here🤣

I have absolutely no anti-Michigan bias at all.  Hell, when my family was rooting for Michigan I hoped they would win.  
 

I literally have zero rooting interest in college sports at all.  Unless the William and Mary Tribe make the NCAA tournament for the first time ever ending the longest drought a d-I team has ever had not making the tourney, I don’t watch or care about college sports at all.  
 

And yeah, that was a terrible game from McCarthy from and NFL perspective.  

Edited March 8 by Voice_of_Reason

[mistertim]

1 hour ago, woodpecker said:

Wtf. Love to know what I said to trigger this childish comment.

 

I see you've met Lombardi's_kid_brother

[Ghost of]

Thank you, VoR. I was just curious. 

[clskinsfan]

3 hours ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm over here trying to figure out hand size using Penix as a reference point...

 

Dang, I could use some Free Agency news...

 

It is just stupid that we have to guess because the guy refused to be measured at the combine. He should have just got it overwith. He's not going to be able to hide his measurables in the end anyways. 

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The wave of negativity from certain quarters on Maye from the media.  Its been one big wave give or take the last month.  it's certainly not everywhere, I'd say Maye is still #2 in give or take half the mocks and has a large share of believers -- but he's generated some intense haters somewhat out of the blue and agree with Monson its sort of built momentum

 

The irony for me is as someone who subscribes to just about everything, listens to a zillion podcasts both local and national so I am not bad at getting a pulse on things.  It feels much more from some in the media then about leaks from scouts -- yet they love to say its not them its the scouts. 

 

From my observation its mostly some in the media which has turned on Maye.  It's not really scouts-personnel people as to these leaks with some straggler exceptions but most of the scout-personnel leaks has been positive on Maye.  Not all of them but most. 

 

I think its a great dig by some in the media who perhaps want to take a deeper dig at Maye by saying its like hey we think he sucks but you know what -- we are much higher on him than the scouts who really think he's awful 

 

Some hyperbole there from me to make a point.   It's not dramatic to that scale.  I just find some irony in it.

 

I am Maye over Daniels.  But I want one of the two.  I'd say if I am going purely on media rumors versus mocks, Daniels right now has the slight edge.  If I am going purely on people who cover the team, Maye has the slight edge as for who is taken.  But as I said I doubt this team decided.

 

I am actually also one of the rare people here who are good with McCarthy.  But as far as he goes I've heard zero rumors of this team being hot for him.  It's still early though.

 

 

 

Working out at the combine would have had the pendulum swinging for Maye and Daniels and the no measurements thing. One response from Maye being interviewed at the combine while the other QB's were throwing, was If they do not like me they do not have to take me? When asked why and if it affected teams taking him something like that? Looked like he was chomping at the bit to throw. Not sure if that was the right thing to say?  

[Chris 44]

1 hour ago, RWJ said:

Things will crystal clear draft night and it won't take long.  It's Drake Maye @ #2.  LOL  

Guaranteed they go to commercial right after #1 and return as pick 3 is called.

[RWJ]

3 minutes ago, Chris 44 said:

Guaranteed they go to commercial right after #1 and return as pick 3 is called.

Won't be the first time, C44!  

[DWinzit]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Um.  All that's fine but if you add those numbers you get to 96%...

 

What happened to the other 4%?  Voted off the island for picking McCarthy who's so bad he doesn't even qualify for the "other" category?  

 

I just looked at it and went, "wait.  Is that 100%?" then I checked the math, and it's not.  It is, fwiw, closer than i initially thought it was going to be.  

 

Grant Paulson is the WORST at this. I have no idea who Mason is, he looks really young, but my guy needs to proof his tweets.  

He was always a Dbag. But Drew Brees might be one of the most likable players in the NFL over the past 40 years.  Literally nobody had anything negative to say about the guy ever.

 

And I think the association with Brees and the fact they won a lot masked the fact the guy was always a bit of a dick.  

 

I follow (a little) the Saints because it's my wife's team.  

Thanks. I guess I never realized that he was this way until recently....post Brees. His true colors have really come shinning through the past couple years and especially since he signed with Denver.

I think Brees is a great human in general not to mention one thee best QB's ever.  Still wish we had made an offer to him in 06.

1 hour ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

1. Scab QB

2. Bountygate

3. Still holds a grudge against the Bountygate snitch.

4. Possible pill head.

5. Almost certainly covered up for a pill head who was possibly him.

6. Fired the guy who accused him of being a pill head.

7. Divorced his wife for Kenny Chesney's ex

8. Clearly knows a plastic surgeon who will take payment in stolen pills/Saints tickets/Kenny Chesney tickets..

So you're a big fan  

[88Comrade2000]

3 hours ago, illone said:

 

 

Well said.

 

Makes me wonder wtf they do all day... as i mentioned, you're getting paid millions of dollars to get this right. In ANY other vertical, you model adjust until you improve... Not in the NFL.

 

The NFL reminds me of a bunch of stubborn boomers trying to use the computer for the first time.

 

"Cman Earl, push the power button again"

 

"Chester, it's not plugged in"

 

Actual footage of NFL people doing the draft:

 

 

Payton is actually pretty brilliant here.

 

I'd be you a pile of money he wouldn't be saying this if Denver had the #1 pick  

 

Sean likely to be fired in a couple of years.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Fixed

Well the funny thing is, Jayden Daniels broke the threshold for breakout age as a freshman in '19. He did it super young, that first year at Arizona State, and then the data basically gets wrecked by covid. Comparatively speaking what are we looking at? Daniels breaks a 50 QBR immediately as a freshman, it aint a great season, but it's solid, in the top 60 in the country, 55th, 64.4 QBR. 

 

With Drake Maye, it happens in his sophomore year, as he goes from age 19/20, and he posts a 10th overall QBR of 82.7 in 2022. 

 

So then you have to decide for yourself, both these guys achieved early breakout age by doing it freshman and sophomore years, the question is, which one is more attractive? For me, it's Maye, because he blows up in year 2 with a top 10 season in all of college in terms of QBR. For Daniels its incremental until he arrives in LSU, but I think there's evidence that with better coaching, he probably would have broken out with a better season at ASU, but that's speculative, we just don't know. Daniels QBR's are 55 in '19, '20 wrecked by covid, 41st in '21, 17th in '22, and then his blow the doors off '23 where he finished 1st. 

 

 

For me, I view Maye as clearly having the more impressive breakout age, because he was immediately one of the very best QB's in the nation the second he became a starter as a sophomore. Immediately, top 10. Hell, even his supposedly disappointing season, in '23, he had a QBR that ranked 14th in the country, better than any of Daniels seasons other than his 5th year. You don't see a top 10 year for Daniels until year 5, and it takes until '22 for him to climb from 41st into the top 20. Maybe Daniels does it earlier if Covid doesn't happen and he has a better OC in ASU, we just don't know, but you could take away from this:

 

#1 Well they both broke out early, Daniels in '19, Maye in '22. They did.

#2 You could do what most are doing when they look for breakouts and say to yourself: hmmmm, Maye was immediately a top 20 guy as a starter after having to watch Howell as a freshman, Daniels didn't enter the top 20 let alone the top 10 until year 4/5, with the covid caveat in play.

 

It's up to you how you want to look at the data. 

 

I think they're both special talents, I just think what Maye did is more impressive, pretty easily, and I also, as previously mentioned, worry more about the types of issues Daniels has in his profile then I do Maye's, and I tend to like the positives in Maye's profile as more projectable and attractive as a prospect, than Daniels (other than the athleticism, which both have, but Daniels is off the charts in, I just worry it could get him killed). 

Edited March 8 by The Consigliere

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

2 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

… about the same age…

[woodpecker]

2 hours ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

 

Being bad at posting. Be better.

Admittedly, you’re not wrong 😁

[DogofWar1]

1 hour ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

Sean likely to be fired in a couple of years.

One of the things I've discovered over the years is all coaches actually just suck, and only win things bc of their QBs.  The exception, of course, is Joe Gibbs.  Man won with 3.  GOAT.

 

And that's also why Tom Brady, for good or ill, is the GOAT.  7 SBs, with the 7th being with Tampa Bay.  Dude leaves his custom built football franchise of 20 years, and just makes winning Super Bowls look ****ing easy in a brand new city.

[kingdaddy]

I assume many of you saw this quote from whoever this Quantitative anylisis exper Eric Eager dude is. 

 

"[Trading back] is a very rational thing to do," Eager recently told John Keim of ESPN. "Washington doesn't have that many good players ... so you're probably going to draft the quarterback into a situation that unless he is a true unicorn, he's going to struggle. And when everybody always cites the stats of '(Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes) sat for a year', well, of course he sat for a year, he went to a good team."

 

[NOLA2DC]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Fixed

Cute

[Voice_of_Reason]

50 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

One of the things I've discovered over the years is all coaches actually just suck, and only win things bc of their QBs.  The exception, of course, is Joe Gibbs.  Man won with 3.  GOAT.

 

And that's also why Tom Brady, for good or ill, is the GOAT.  7 SBs, with the 7th being with Tampa Bay.  Dude leaves his custom built football franchise of 20 years, and just makes winning Super Bowls look ****ing easy in a brand new city.

Eh, I think it takes good coach + good QB.  
 

You need both.  And coaching develops players.  
 

Some really good QBs get stuck in purgatory with bad teams and bad coaching.  

[HTTRDynasty]

Kid had some game:

 

 

 

Edited March 9 by HTTRDynasty

[FootballZombie]

7 minutes ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Kid had some game:

 

I got irrationally angry at that vid twice.

 

1- It showed 2 highlights then cut to the title screen. I immediately thought "this is the most pointless mixtape ever"

 

2- After a montage of warmups and crowd shots.... the first highlight preceding the into is the one already showcased in the intro.

 

 

It had no business making me angry, but it made me angry. lol

 

 

Fun to see prospects in other sports tho

[Conn]

5 hours ago, NOLA2DC said:

I challenge age as a predictive factor because it's really a byproduct of when you enter the league. The key question is how long it takes you to make an impact after being drafted. For example, we generally expect/hope a rook (regardless of position) to make a significant contribution in their first couple of years in the league. If they don't, you wonder if they are a bust. We routinely hear about whether a player is in the right system or coached correctly if they don't perform early. How fast or whether you breakout has to do more with the average age of rooks than a predictor of performance. More guys with higher grades come out younger than older ones. Unless you control for a number of other variables, I don't buy it. Not all correlation is causation.     

You’re missing the point. Breakout age refers to when the player broke out in college…not when they break out in the NFL. A 19 year old player proving to be elite against older, more experienced players is more impressive than a 23-year old 5th year player looking elite against younger, less experienced players. 
 

When a young 21 year old prospect is good enough to enter the draft after three years out of HS, and he’s competing for draft position against a 23 year old prospect, it’s only fair to ask “wow, how good would this 21 year old be if he stayed in school for two more entire years before trying the NFL?” He’d likely be an even more elite prospect, setting aside potential injury—right?