The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SonnySideUp]

I guess the QB matter is settled. Ron Rivera says we should pick Daniels.

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-draft-former-coach-ron-rivera-jayden-daniels-kliff-kingsbury

 

>>"Jayden Daniels," Rivera said. "Just because of the fact that everybody expects (USC quarterback) Caleb (Williams) to go first. So to me, if this is the style of offense you're going to have, you've got to have that type of quarterback."

 

Rivera's opinion is based on stylistic football and finding the right fit for new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury, which he says Daniels fits more so than other prospects like North Carolina's Drake Maye or even Michigan's J.J. McCarthy.

 

"The big thing more so than anything else that you have to look at is the style of offense they're going to run," Rivera says. "You've got Kliff Kingsbury, a guy that likes the mobile quarterback - a quarterback that can move in the pocket - that can make the plays when they're downfield and throw the football. I think the big thing is you've got to have a mobile quarterback." 

 

Daniels certainly fits that mold, with nobody doubting his athleticism or even his deep arm.

 

If there are questions about his game it's whether or not he can make every throw on the field including layered throws over the middle with defenders underneath and over the top of the routes he may be targeting.

 

Of course, Daniels' athleticism has brought up some concerns as well. Not in whether or not he has it - he's got plenty of it - but in how he uses it.

Namely, is his slight frame going to withstand the same amount of contact he was willing to take on at LSU?

 

If Kingsbury, coach Dan Quinn, and general manager Adam Peters agree, then the No. 2 pick should be an easy one to make assuming Williams does indeed go No. 1 overall to the Chicago Bears or any other team.

 

But if Williams is still there, or if the Commanders have the chance to trade up themselves, there's little doubt they'd be heavily compelled to bring him home to the DMV.<<

[Conn]

43 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

I just think there is an unpinned assumption around here on the ‘ratings’ of these prospects. It’s a bit bizarre to me. It’s wide open. Just because we are picking #2 doesn’t mean we will get the 2nd best QB. Or just because we pick who public opinion deems the 2nd best QB, let’s go that route.

 

We’ve brought in the most highly touted GM prospect available. You know what, part of me hopes he does something different and unconventional. The plan is to create a long standing successful franchise. That might not mean picking a 50/50 QB at #2 this year. Who knows. 
 

The thirst for a QB is potentially making people short sighted, IMO…….

 

And for the record, I want a QB.

I think you’d have to be willing to ignore a lot of evidence to deny that there are obviously 2, possibly 3, conventionally accepted blue chip prospects this year. It takes a lot of hubris to say that you know better. Now, blue chip guys bust all the time. But at a lower rate than non-blue chip guys. There’s a reason this is perceived to be a good year to have the #2 pick. There’s a reason Adam Peters almost instantly took this job, and it wasn’t just Harris’ pitch. Starting your GM career with the ability to take a high percentage swing on a QB is the dream. 

 

So just to be clear, ignoring years of blue chip evaluation and hype on guys like Williams and Maye is the position of arrogance and ill-advised assumption, here. Just admit that you, personally, do not like the seemingly most likely course of action for us—taking Maye at 2. Your entire attempt to talk circles around that is what this entire worldview about this draft is stemming from. If you loved Maye, you wouldn’t be talking about trading out of the pick—you’d think it was crazy talk. You don’t, so you’re advocating hard for it as the rational move. So just admit that you feel so strongly about Maye that you think you know best on this evaluation. Then people will at least be engaged in the correct argument against you. Instead of combating the shield you hold in front of yourself, this idea that trading down is what would actually make Peters a genius maverick. Just say you don’t like the specific prospect. 

Side note—the continual flippant framing of a “50/50” shot at a franchise QB, by you and others, as an implied bad bet or a low percentage play is baffling. If that percentage were real, it would be a miraculously high chance to change this franchise. 

Edited March 7 by Conn

[mac8887]

47 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

Most people: "**** yeah! Let's have some steak, baby!"

 

Some randos: "No, let's trade these steaks in for 6 McDonalds happy meals"

The best part about the happy meals is that they come with toys, the bad part is that most of the time the toys suck

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, illone said:

 

Agreed.

 

I'm just giving him a hard time. I'd roast bowls with him anytime while discussing the humor of his rankings and how funny it will be when he accidentaly hits on half of them.

 

Chrissy sounds confident, but I dont think he takes himself too seriously.

 

Point being, any stoner with good or bad weed can get lucky this time of year and Im certain if pressed, he would admit as much.

 

Afterall, none of us are getting paid to make these picks and my kids eating isnt dependent on the pick working out. Same goes for the entire Simms clan, since I noticed his brother has a podcast as well. Matt Simms was on Finlay and BMitch the other day...

 

For the record, I dont take myself too seriously either. I mentioned this previously, but I was a HUGE colt brennan guy... Not a full fledged cult member, but he was so electric in college I really thought he was going to be special in the NFL...

I definitely take myself and my opinions too seriously sometimes, but I do a ---- ton of work on QB-RB-WR-TE for Dynasty purposes. Going over thousands upon thousands of hours of ----, class to class, there are definitely lessons learned, process understood, reliable best practices developed, but there is no system or approach that is anything more than a touch better than randomness inside tiers, with an acknowledgement that you get guys like Kyren Williams. As an example, I had a ton of Kyren Williams as a waiver Wire pick up/ 4th/5th round rookie pick because he fit in my Bucket of "pre-combine highly ranked value droppers". That's one subset of players who ---- the bed in some way in the combine/athletic testing, something after the season causes their valuation to plunge. Those guys represent some value because a portion of them hit reliably, not many, but some hit nearly every year. Did I enjoy stealing Kyren? No, because I cut his --- to make room for rookie draft picks in '23 and other -----'s got all the value picking him up after he started producing after I had carried him for all or part of '22 lol. Very frustrating. 

 

But yeah, for the most part, I have some good humor with this, and admit that there's no way to nail this down, but there's also good process/best practices you can use that can help you, things like break out age, athletic testing for TE's, 40's for rb's matched with their production #'s and market share etc. There are all sorts of statistical tools that can help give you an edge, metrics, concepts like breakout age, production markers of a sort, and even tape too. But even w/that, they are all just tools to help you get an edge, a better chance of hitting then the average guy, but you're still gonna miss year to year, on plenty even with all the tools. For every AJ Brown, or Jayden Reed I stole, there's a pile of Laviska Shenaults and Denzel Mims I took over the Brandon Aiyuk's and Michael Pittman's. 

[FootballZombie]

Looks like Ron's take on whom to take at #2 is not about which QB is better, but moreso steeped in the idea that we are gonna run an O similar to what Kliff ran w/ Murray.

 

Can't say I blame him, I was in the same headspace when we signed Kliff and then brought in Hurts coach to follow it up. Jayden is the natural progression to that line of thinking.

 

But I had to back away from that when Kliff said pretty much anything was on/off the table, and as a new hire I gotta give him the benefit of the doubt when he puts that out there.

 

But if the idea is our coaching staff slides into familiar haunts... yeah significant slant towards JD.

[The Consigliere]

2 hours ago, DogofWar1 said:

I feel like there's a non-zero chance Chris Simm's whole schtick is to just take like, ESPN qb rankings, take the top 5 or 6, and pick one high one to drop and one low one to raise a bit, then hit send and watch the clicks roll in.

Nah, I think he actually enjoys breaking them down. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think for a guy like him, it probably gives him a diet version of the juice he got from being a player in the game for a while there, decades ago, watching tape, seeing strengths and weaknesses, it probably gets him off a little bit in terms of that sporting jones, but honestly, if he loves it, he should try to get into scouting or front office work, he has an easy in with dumb owners and the occasional idiot GM like Gettelman. 

[The Consigliere]

46 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That was pre-covid. 
 

The sautéed mushrooms now cost $50.

 

Ok that’s an exaggeration.  But unless you JUST get a steak, you can t get out of there for under $80-100, and if you want a drink, more than that.  
 

I went for a business dinner a few months ago and was aghast at the cost. 

You can't get out of anywhere for under $80-$100 if you have a date or wife with you, unless its like some big box, franchise ---- restaurant. We just went to a Chinese New Year Dinner a few weeks ago and came out $300 poorer. Just a Fixed Price, 5 item menu, did not matter, and this is Reno. 

 

If we go to the top French Restaurant in Reno, we're paying $35-$75 on Mains alone, any apps, charcuterie plate, the famed French Onion, were out another $25-$40, then there's corkage, and boom, for two people you're hitting $175-$250 easy. 

 

All that being said, I'll still take that over a big box dinner at like Chilli's or whatever. 

 

I cant do the steakhouses because its just too.....meh. I want to taste something I can't cook myself. I know how to make a very, very good if not Morton's level steak at home. But a Roasted Duck, with a Marionerry-Red Wine Reduction? Mmmmmm, not at their level. Can't render the fat or cook the duck hot enough (kind of like making a pizza at home, versus an Italian Style sort of Brick kinda oven thing that's wood fired. Just not the same. I try to go to places where they are making dishes I can't produce myself (in fairness, I can make an adequate Blackberry-Red Wine reduction for Elk, so half of the duck dish I can do in my own half ----- manner). 

13 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Looks like Ron's take on whom to take at #2 is not about which QB is better, but moreso steeped in the idea that we are gonna run an O similar to what Kliff ran w/ Murray.

 

Can't say I blame him, I was in the same headspace when we signed Kliff and then brought in Hurts coach to follow it up. Jayden is the natural progression to that line of thinking.

 

But I had to back away from that when Kliff said pretty much anything was on/off the table, and as a new hire I gotta give him the benefit of the doubt when he puts that out there.

 

But if the idea is our coaching staff slides into familiar haunts... yeah significant slant towards JD.

I cannot express how incensed I'd be if the decision we made at the #2 pick of one of the best QB classes in decades would not be based on the talent and upside of the passer, but the system some hack, multiple-times fired, ex head coach would like to run. If I was an owner, I'd fire EVERYONE if it was based upon that.

 

That's probably my biggest single concern with this offseason. To me, Adam should've evaluated QB first, and then hired the best coach to fit the QB they wanted to draft because lets be straight here, OC's and DC's are dimes a dozen. We have a defense littered with the ---- some never good in the first place former DC wanted that we trebuchet'd right out of here before the season was over, that is totally back ---ward in my view. Talent first, coaches to accentuate the talent. Simple as that. 

[BurgundyBooger]

7 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

You can't get out of anywhere for under $80-$100 if you have a date or wife with you, unless its like some big box, franchise ---- restaurant. We just went to a Chinese New Year Dinner a few weeks ago and came out $300 poorer. Just a Fixed Price, 5 item menu, did not matter, and this is Reno. 

 

If we go to the top French Restaurant in Reno, we're paying $35-$75 on Mains alone, any apps, charcuterie plate, the famed French Onion, were out another $25-$40, then there's corkage, and boom, for two people you're hitting $175-$250 easy. 

 

All that being said, I'll still take that over a big box dinner at like Chilli's or whatever. 

 

I cant do the steakhouses because its just too.....meh. I want to taste something I can't cook myself. I know how to make a very, very good if not Morton's level steak at home. But a Roasted Duck, with a Marionerry-Red Wine Reduction? Mmmmmm, not at their level. Can't render the fat or cook the duck hot enough (kind of like making a pizza at home, versus an Italian Style sort of Brick kinda oven thing that's wood fired. Just not the same. I try to go to places where they are making dishes I can't produce myself (in fairness, I can make an adequate Blackberry-Red Wine reduction for Elk, so half of the duck dish I can do in my own half ----- manner). 

 

This guy.

[Warhead36]

First off, Kingsbury has said he's going to adapt his offense to fit his personnel. Second off, even if mobility is some key requirement, guess what? Maye is mobile! He'll probably run a 40 faster then Josh Allen. He had over 1600 rushing yards in college. He is a terrific athlete. There seems to be this misconception that Maye is some big old stiff. Doesn't shock me that Rivera hasn't scouted him properly.

[AlwaysBeRedskins2Me]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I am with you. Unless being "home" means everything to him. Chicago is a better spot right now for sure. And I think DJ Moore might be a top 5 WR in this league. He put up great numbers with a horrible passing QB. The guy is uncoverable. 

DJ Moore is definitely a heckuva wide receiver. Especially vs us last year. Sheesh. Washington db's trying to cover Moore was like me using my king size blanket to try to cover the Atlantic Ocean!!!! 

[FootballZombie]

15 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I cannot express how incensed I'd be if the decision we made at the #2 pick of one of the best QB classes in decades would not be based on the talent and upside of the passer, but the system some hack, multiple-times fired, ex head coach would like to run. If I was an owner, I'd fire EVERYONE if it was based upon that.

 

I disagree, fit is important.

There has to be some level of overlap between scheme and prospect.

 

You shouldn't go out and get a man-focused corner and stuff him into a zone heavy scheme. Your both wasting the guys potential and asking him to do something he may not be able to do well.

 

Kliff has shown me nothing in his history that would want me to pair him with a prospect that is a statue for example. I'd want a guy who has shown ability in whatever he ends up running, and if that is a bunch of QB running concepts, then I don't exactly want a guy like Penix.

 

4 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

There seems to be this misconception that Maye is some big old stiff. Doesn't shock me that Rivera hasn't scouted him properly.

 

Its not a knock or misconception on Maye at all. Its just the recognition that he is not the rushing threat Daniels is.

He is a good athlete, and most people here would agree he could run that O. But you wont find as many who would see him as the running threat that JD is in a read option O.

[DogofWar1]

32 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Nah, I think he actually enjoys breaking them down. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think for a guy like him, it probably gives him a diet version of the juice he got from being a player in the game for a while there, decades ago, watching tape, seeing strengths and weaknesses, it probably gets him off a little bit in terms of that sporting jones, but honestly, if he loves it, he should try to get into scouting or front office work, he has an easy in with dumb owners and the occasional idiot GM like Gettelman. 

 

Chris Simms ranking QBs based on how...uhh...turned on... their highlights make him is a funny thought.

 

*watching Daniels*

"Oh yeah baby you throw that ball ooooh the touch on it THE TOUCH mmmm that throw was SO DEEP and in the BUCKET!"

 

*watching Maye*

"He doesn't have nice looking feet...work.  I can't get juiced to this.  6th."

[clskinsfan]

48 minutes ago, SonnySideUp said:

I guess the QB matter is settled. Ron Rivera says we should pick Daniels.

I actually dont care either way at this point. Maye-Daniels really do not care. As long as we pick a QB at 2 I will be happy. Anything else and I will literally lose my ****. 

[mistertim]

I think the "mobility" that KK is looking for depends on the type of mobility we're talking about. If it's a guy who will escape the pocket, keep his eyes downfield and make an off-platform throw then that's going to be Williams or Maye. If it's a guy who will escape the pocket and then most of the time tuck it and run, then that's Daniels. IIRC Daniels had a historically low percentage of throws outside of the pocket vs running.

 

If I had to guess, I'd say KK is probably looking more for the former, but no way to know for sure.

Edited March 7 by mistertim

[Skinsinparadise]

I've used food analogies before.  But this time it really caught fire.    If I knew the prices would be taken that literally, I was just using a quick tit for tat comparison. But its good.  Am feeling hungry now.

 

 

Edited March 7 by Skinsinparadise

[DogofWar1]

So I popped over to Adam Peters' Wikipedia page to look at where he worked to cross reference with his drafts to try and find clues for the type of QBs he might like.

 

 

Well so I pop over to 2003 Draft and ctrl-F New England AND GUESS WHAT POPS UP wayyy down in the 6th round.

 

 

DUN DUN DUNNNNNNNN

[kingdaddy]

46 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

Looks like Ron's take on whom to take at #2 is not about which QB is better, but moreso steeped in the idea that we are gonna run an O similar to what Kliff ran w/ Murray.

 

Can't say I blame him, I was in the same headspace when we signed Kliff and then brought in Hurts coach to follow it up. Jayden is the natural progression to that line of thinking.

 

But I had to back away from that when Kliff said pretty much anything was on/off the table, and as a new hire I gotta give him the benefit of the doubt when he puts that out there.

 

But if the idea is our coaching staff slides into familiar haunts... yeah significant slant towards JD.

Just a thought, I saw the report today that we are gonna press the Bears hard to trade us #1 overall so we can get CW. Does that say more about how great we think CW is gonna be or how much we're not crazy about the guys who fall to us at #2? And is the report even true? Something to keep an eye on?

[The Consigliere]

5 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

First off, Kingsbury has said he's going to adapt his offense to fit his personnel. Second off, even if mobility is some key requirement, guess what? Maye is mobile! He'll probably run a 40 faster then Josh Allen. He had over 1600 rushing yards in college. He is a terrific athlete. There seems to be this misconception that Maye is some big old stiff. Doesn't shock me that Rivera hasn't scouted him properly.

I'm not saying he won't, I'm saying if the selection is Daniels, because Kingsbury likes him as a fit better, that's some epic grand mal stupidity. 

 

I get that its square peg/round hole issues, when you miss match talent and system, and that creates its own set of problems, but we need to understand the base level question of supply and Demand.

 

There are infinitely more average to competent to good OC's than there are competent, above average, to good or better QB's.

 

Now is Peters willing to just get Kingsbury his QB, and the pick will be based upon that? I don't know. Nor do I know which guy Kliff thinks is the better fit. The thing is, I don't give a ---- what Kliff thinks is a better fit, all I care about is which prospect is better with a high ceiling and preferably higher floor as well. Which QB grades out higher? Take that guy, period, full stop. Do not take a guy at the top of the draft, one of the best QB prospect drafts the past decade coming out of school, based on Kingsbury fit, rather than player talent.

 

The reason the mere thought of this incenses me should be pretty simple . The question is what idea is directing our decision making here. I'd like to think Peters is evaluating the QB's, and determining his board w/no thought to Kingsbury's preferences because quite simply, you do not ---- around with QB prospects. They are too hard to hit on in the first place to be messing around with the idea of system fits. So hopefully he gets this. It seems simple, but we've all seen countless times over the years, organizations, teams, and nations place system above the talent, and then try and force the available talent to fit the system. This only typically works effectively when you have a bottom up developmental system from farm, or youth leagues all the way through to senior professional level because even guys that might not be the greatest system fit, have been trained since they were young in said system. This isn't how football works though, and as a result, I fully expect and would demand our GM to simply take the best QB on the board, in his view, period, hopefully they are doing that. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Just now, kingdaddy said:

Just a thought, I saw the report today that we are gonna press the Bears hard to trade us #1 overall so we can get CW. Does that say more about how great we think CW is gonna be or how much we're not crazy about the guys who fall to us at #2? And is the report even true? Something to keep an eye on?

 

Which report?

[The Consigliere]

14 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

Chris Simms ranking QBs based on how...uhh...turned on... their highlights make him is a funny thought.

 

*watching Daniels*

"Oh yeah baby you throw that ball ooooh the touch on it THE TOUCH mmmm that throw was SO DEEP and in the BUCKET!"

 

*watching Maye*

"He doesn't have nice looking feet...work.  I can't get juiced to this.  6th."

I definitely figured I was walking into this when i typed that lol, thank you for delivering. I just picture that droopy I'm not gonna say the word lol- sound effect for Maye. 

[kingdaddy]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Which report?

I'll have to go back and find it, the report said that the Commanders are gonna make the Bears say NO to trading the #1 pick. Pretty sure I read it this morning.

Just now, kingdaddy said:

I'll have to go back and find it, the report said that the Commanders are gonna make the Bears say NO to trading the #1 pick. Pretty sure I read it this morning.

It's an SI article.

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-trade-draft-rumor-report-caleb-williams-chicago-bears

[FootballZombie]

5 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Does that say more about how great we think CW is gonna be or how much we're not crazy about the guys who fall to us at #2? And is the report even true?

 

"If true" being the important part, but I'd imagine you just really love a guy if your willing to get him by any means necessary.

That does not mean they don't also like the rest, just not to the same degree.

 

 

I don't think we are crying into our pillows sitting at 2 in this draft tho.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I'll have to go back and find it, the report said that the Commanders are gonna make the Bears say NO to trading the #1 pick. Pretty sure I read it this morning.

It's an SI article.

https://www.si.com/nfl/commanders/news/washington-commanders-trade-draft-rumor-report-caleb-williams-chicago-bears

I’m sure they’ll call.  
 

I doubt they will offer what is needed.  
 

This reads like click bare and taking the “we’re exploring all options” like from Peters at the combine to an extreme.  

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I'll have to go back and find it, the report said that the Commanders are gonna make the Bears say NO to trading the #1 pick. Pretty sure I read it this morning.

 

That's the Sikkema PFF guy, he's not a reporter, mentoning the gossip he heard there.  We talked about that exact gossip on this thread before, its not new, and even posted the video.   That same article ironicallu also has some other dude from Walter Football who was there say the opposite. Ditto some others who were at the combine saying the opposite.

 

Rumors are all over the place.

 

Keim who is actually a reporter believes their intention isn't to trade up and 95% chance or so they stay put at 2.  He's not alone on that.

 

They can trade up for Caleb, am good with it.  But, I like to follow the smoke on stuff like that.   And definitiely a lot more smoke exists that they are sticking at #2.  

Edited March 7 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

I'm sure they'll call. You're picking 2, you're close to 1, why wouldn't you call? 

 

Ultimately it's a moot point. Chicago isn't passing up on Williams and we have two other legit blue chip QB options so the incentive for us to give up a haul isn't that high.