The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

I watch a lot of college football. 
 

I also read this board a lot. Lots of people here like to set a narrative. As soon as we got the second pick (which Maye is a high probability), people start in with their gut feelings/etc. This way when he fails, these people can come out of the woodwork to say how right they were all along. 
 

Gut feelings/recency bias aside, there are some things to Maye’s game that need improvement. No prospect is flawless.

 

But anyone who doesn’t think that Maye is a bonafide top 5 pick in any draft is being disingenuous. 
 

 

 

 

 

Or it's just how some folks feel.

 

As of right now, I think Maye is a top 5 pick in this draft. Not necessarily because he's a top 5 player, but because he is a prototype trait QB. That will always elevate a prospect.

 

To be fair, though, I rarely think the QBs are the actual best players in a draft class.

 

So, to your point, I think Maye is a top 5 pick in this class. But I don't think he's a top 5 player. 

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

18 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

My soul tells me both Caleb and Maye are the guys. The rest? They are all projects or high risk to me. 

I don’t think there is a chance in the world that we get lucky enough to land Caleb at 2.  At this time, I’d bet he goes 1 to Chicago or Chicago trades down and gets a kings ransom in exchange for the right to draft Williams.

 

All 3 of these guys are projects, the risk level varies though.  I’d much prefer roll the dice on a talent like Daniels over Maye, higher risk = higher reward.

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

4 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Or it's just how some folks feel.

I understand that as well. My statement was probably just a little bitter because of how the season went (and somebody asking if I even watch college football 😆).

Edited January 8 by AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy

[The Consigliere]

20 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I agree here. Young was the pick. And yes he was bust. But more because of health than anything imo. He was the defensive rookie of the year after all. The other thing about the 2020 draft is that it was a weak draft talent wise. And pretty much all of us were on board with that. That made the Young pick even more solid imo. This 24 draft is the polar opposite. It is stacked with talent. Especially on the offensive side of the ball. 

I can't speak to non-playmaking positions but I do recall '20 being good at QB, great at WR, great at RB, I can't remember TE. I don't think it was a poor or subpar draft. I do think '24 is deeper at QB, and equally great at WR (better probably in top end talent), but much weaker at RB. There's no arguing where Young stood on the board, it's more philosophical, can you take an edge when you pick 2nd in a 3 QB draft and your QB room is 900 year old Alex Smith, and Haskins? the answer should have been no. 

[illone]

21 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

I understand that as well. My statement was probably just a little bitter because of how the season went (and somebody asking if I even watch college football 😆).

read my question again… 
 

i simply asked how closely you follow college football. It’s a fair question considering Im not a mind reader and dont know your perspective. 
 

its called “making conversation on a messageboard” but its cool dude, you do you boo. I’ll get out of the way so you can enjoy your drake maye love fest. 

[AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy]

8 minutes ago, illone said:

its called “making conversation on a messageboard” but its cool dude, you do you boo. 

I’m not having a Drake Maye love fest. And to say “how closely do you follow college football” isn’t a question, it’s a trolling insult that implies I have no idea what I’m talking about. 
 

Don’t call me dude. Or boo. Or whatever other super clever terms of endearment you have in your bag. Thanks. 😊 

[FootballZombie]

53 minutes ago, AlvinWaltonIsMyBoy said:

Don’t call me dude. Or boo. Or whatever other super clever terms of endearment you have in your bag. Thanks. 😊 

 

Edited January 8 by FootballZombie

[Thinking Skins]

My thought with Howell and I've been saying it all over Twitter is that we need more consistency. I can't pull for him to be the man if he's going to be throwing multiple pick games. But at the same time I remember when Kirk threw the 4 Pick game against the Giants and I was done DONE with him, thinking he was done with himself and just couldn't get the pics out of his head. And he has gotten a good career for himself. But I need Howell to fix this like Kirk has. 

 

That said, What I was thinking this morning on those two deep shots to Terry was that maybe Howell was told by coaches or WRs to work on his touch on deepballs so he started throwing them shorter to try to get better placement (is my wording making sense?) And as a result he is not getting the timing down with the WRs. That could be a big way of saying he's thinking too much. That first throw he should have just aired it out, but he cold have thought that he has too much arm to air it out for that pass cause it was just like 30 yards so he had to taper it some. Same with the second one, Plus both he had to get over a defender and around a DB. 

 

Still, every QB has to overcome problems and I'm tired of becoming the violin swan song for his interceptions (what had happened was). So he just needs to do better. Sam DO BETTER. 

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

I'm not suggesting rolling out Sam next year as the Number One QB, because I am not an idiot.

 

I would, however, like to see a report on the performance of first year starters/rookles over the final month of a season. I've long suspected that young QBs get exhausted by the end of their first season. You are used to 12 or so college games where the defenses are running pretty basic stuff if they are running anything at all. Suddenly, you are playing 17 games against grown-ass men who are trained to trick you and then maim you.

 

I dunno.

 

Seems like it would be tiring.

[RandyHolt]

Wait let me guess, is Maye also compared to Drew Brees?

 

I haven't seen much of Maye beside all the perfect we need this guy highlights.

 

Dare I think Howell may be a better comparable than Brees. If not, what are the biggest differences between Howell and Maye... maybe Maye wasn't Ramsey'd?

 

I read they share the same weaknesses but not sure if its true or not.

Edited January 8 by RandyHolt

[illone]

3 hours ago, Lombardi's_kid_brother said:

I'm not suggesting rolling out Sam next year as the Number One QB, because I am not an idiot.

 

I would, however, like to see a report on the performance of first year starters/rookles over the final month of a season. I've long suspected that young QBs get exhausted by the end of their first season. 

 

This dog will hunt. 
 

Its no coincidence Sam fell off right around week 13-14… 
 

 

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Wait let me guess, is Maye also compared to Drew Brees?

 

I haven't seen much of Maye beside all the perfect we need this guy highlights.

 

Dare I think Howell may be a better comparable than Brees. If not, what are the biggest differences between Howell and Maye... maybe Maye wasn't Ramsey'd?

 

I read they share the same weaknesses but not sure if its true or not.

You’re going to get 85 different answers from people here on this question. In fact, when I’m done replying someone will come along and say I don’t know what I’m talking about. And maybe they’re right… but with that caveat:

 

Maye is 6-4. Howell is 6-1. Maye is also much faster than Howell.

 

Otherwise, yes, they are very similar. Maye has a great arm, a fun deep ball and when he’s on it’s remarkable to watch the ball’s flight path. He is great on the move as a runner and is a big, strong guy. 
 

He also makes bad decisions, forces things and doesn’t handle pressure well, sometimes eluding pressure into defenders and creating his own sacks.

 

He is very much a taller, bigger Sam Howell, imo.
 

He also had an incredibly awful OL to deal with, just like Howell. 

[kingdaddy]

Question for the familly: Does Sam  become a good pick in the 5th round as a backup QB? In other words, keep him around, teach him the new system, coach him up and get him ready for when he is called on due to injury? While keeping him, is there a way we can increase his value over the next 2 years where we can maybe get a 2nd for him or something along those lines? Most QB's taken in the 5th round would be just fine making the gameday roster and sitting behind a guy who has a better pedigree/draft ranking so to speak. Sam is somewhat differents because he got a chance to start with an organization that was desperate to see him run with the opportunity. If nothing else he's cheap, has NFL experience and is very tough if needed. Maybe this could be a good way of looking at Sam moving forward?

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, kingdaddy said:

Question for the familly: Does Sam  become a good pick in the 5th round as a backup QB? In other words, keep him around, teach him the new system, coach him up and get him ready for when he is called on due to injury? While keeping him, is there a way we can increase his value over the next 2 years where we can maybe get a 2nd for him or something along those lines? Most QB's taken in the 5th round would be just fine making the gameday roster and sitting behind a guy who has a better pedigree/draft ranking so to speak. Sam is somewhat differents because he got a chance to start with an organization that was desperate to see him run with the opportunity. If nothing else he's cheap, has NFL experience and is very tough if needed. Maybe this could be a good way of looking at Sam moving forward?

 

I still believe he is just more than a backup. He is still a legit starter. 1st year starter and threw more than rest of them (would had even more if not benched twice and would have had more than 4K passing yards as well). His arm basically fell off towards the end and the INT started to happen more. Also EB playcalling and scheme didn't help Sam by not doing more running plays and be creative like he did in Week 18 but little too late by then. 

 

No other QB in his draft class has done what Sam has done his 1st year as a starter with much less. Sure get another QB in the 2024 draft class but a smart coach would keep Sam and let them battle it out and see who is better and should be the starter for 2024. 

 

[Warhead36]

Howell is Gardner Minshew. Quality backup/short term starter but not a long term franchise cornerstone. 

[DJHJR86]

I would have to imagine that Williams goes #1 overall; whether its to Chicago or someone who trades up to get him I don't know, but he's going #1 overall.  Penix Jr. is a hard no for me.  Too many injuries.  Jayden Daniels is a big question mark, but I do think he would be a higher risk/higher reward pick than Maye.  Maye is the "safe" pick.  I would be okay with Maye at #2.  He's a bigger, faster Howell with a stronger arm.  

[skinsfan66]

38 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

I would have to imagine that Williams goes #1 overall; whether its to Chicago or someone who trades up to get him I don't know, but he's going #1 overall.  Penix Jr. is a hard no for me.  Too many injuries.  Jayden Daniels is a big question mark, but I do think he would be a higher risk/higher reward pick than Maye.  Maye is the "safe" pick.  I would be okay with Maye at #2.  He's a bigger, faster Howell with a stronger arm.  

It's hard not to feel like Penix stock arrow going up just stopped. He looked fragile the 2nd half of the game and off the field at the end. Michigan has a tough defense don't think Washington has faced one like that this year. It only get's tougher in the NFL, you need wheels these days and a body that can take it. But he has every thing else if you give him time. Risky pick early moving back down for me and not with our OL.  

Edited January 9 by skinsfan66

[KDawg]

Penix isn’t in the conversation.

 

Its Williams (who likely isn’t there at 2), Maye and Daniels. 
 

The only other option is a veteran trade. And if we do that and manage to keep pick #2 I’d assume Marvin Harrison is an option. I’d put the odds there low.

 

Estimated guesses for percentage based outcome:

 

Williams, Maye or Daniels - 95%
Vet QB + MHJ - 5%

[ntotoro]

Penix was limp by the end of the game. He'd get killed against an NFL defense... size of Peniz notwithstanding.

[Going Commando]

On 1/8/2024 at 9:23 AM, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I don’t think there is a chance in the world that we get lucky enough to land Caleb at 2.  At this time, I’d bet he goes 1 to Chicago or Chicago trades down and gets a kings ransom in exchange for the right to draft Williams.

 

All 3 of these guys are projects, the risk level varies though.  I’d much prefer roll the dice on a talent like Daniels over Maye, higher risk = higher reward.

 

Maye is higher risk than Daniels, but has a much higher ceiling.  He doesn't have as much starting experience as Daniels does, doesn't have his running speed, and didn't have a season as accomplished as Daniels just did.  But his ceiling is way higher because he can see the field better and has better instincts, he is way bigger and stronger, and he has a markedly better arm.  His arm is almost as good as it gets, his backyard football creativity is phenomenal, and he plays the game with elite instincts.  He's also super poised for such a young player, and he's ****y and competitive in the way that stud QBs need to be.

 

Drake Maye's ceiling is Josh Allen, and Caleb Williams is the only guy in the class with a higher ceiling.  That's the main reason they are going to go 1 and 2.  When he starts putting it all together, he can be a perennial MVP candidate by the end of his rookie contract.

 

I don't think the Sam Howell comparison for Maye is even remotely accurate.  The only real things they have in common are playing for UNC.  There isn't a single meaningful trait where Howell is as good as Maye, and that should be kind of plain from the fact Maye is going to go #2 overall in a loaded draft class while Howell was a second round talent who got picked in the 5th round of a bad class.

[Koolblue13]

[Koolblue13]

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

This debate is pretty much dead now but felt like this is still a good point by Rappaport (that likely is coming directly from Arthur Blank)

[Leonard Washington]

20 hours ago, RandyHolt said:

Wait let me guess, is Maye also compared to Drew Brees?

 

I haven't seen much of Maye beside all the perfect we need this guy highlights.

 

Dare I think Howell may be a better comparable than Brees. If not, what are the biggest differences between Howell and Maye... maybe Maye wasn't Ramsey'd?

 

I read they share the same weaknesses but not sure if its true or not.

That has been my quick assessment of Maye as well.  He seems like a taller Howell, but with less rushing ability.

 

  

7 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

This debate is pretty much dead now but felt like this is still a good point by Rappaport (that likely is coming directly from Arthur Blank)

I agree 100%.  Too many teams go from worst to first each year for fans/owners to wait 3-4 years to "contend".  You gotta build the plane as you're flying it.

Edited January 9 by Leonard Washington

[oraphus]

16 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Question for the familly: Does Sam  become a good pick in the 5th round as a backup QB? In other words, keep him around, teach him the new system, coach him up and get him ready for when he is called on due to injury? While keeping him, is there a way we can increase his value over the next 2 years where we can maybe get a 2nd for him or something along those lines? Most QB's taken in the 5th round would be just fine making the gameday roster and sitting behind a guy who has a better pedigree/draft ranking so to speak. Sam is somewhat differents because he got a chance to start with an organization that was desperate to see him run with the opportunity. If nothing else he's cheap, has NFL experience and is very tough if needed. Maybe this could be a good way of looking at Sam moving forward?

i dont see it. Most NFL execs aren't "that" dumb (sorry Ron)  Howell played like a 5th rd pick. If he gets an opportunity to start due to an inj sometime down the line for at least 5 games and balls out.. there might be a little interest. Look at Baker.. drafted #1, had one bad season and could barely find a job last year.  From what ive seen over the last 5 games, he is not even Minshew quality at this point.