The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Koolblue13]

EB wrecked Sam. If he gets a year off, he might be salvageable, but he needs competent people around him, not RonMart and the Post Turtle.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I was just thinking about how I held onto being a supporter for almost as long as anybody on this message board possibly could. And then I was thinking about how now I’m all like, “FEED THEM THE CARCASS OF SAM HOWELL!!” And then I was just thinking about my New Year’s resolution to be a better person…

[illone]

2 hours ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

A veteran hopefully? Surely people don't think Howell can or should mentor a rookie QB. 

 

Eh, I doubt that would be Sam's role if he does somehow make it out of camp. Some guys are just backups and arent expected to mentor.

 

I think a lot will hinge on the offense that is installed, and how well he does in camp.  I kind of feel like it's pointless to make any personnel decisions this early in the process.  We dont even know who the HC, OC etc will be for next year. What if the new staff sees something in Howell, but drafts a guy in the 2nd round and opens up a true QB competition, and Sam wins the job?

 

Crazier things have happened... I remember a few years back when the Chargers thought Brees stunk so they drafted Rivers and then Brees started tearing it up. 

[FuriousD]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

EB wrecked Sam. If he gets a year off, he might be salvageable, but he needs competent people around him, not RonMart and the Post Turtle.

Surely the good news for all our young players is that competent coaches are on the horizon. Yeah that’s an assumption but we have to believe things are going to be better, right?

As for Howell, he’s too young, talented, cheap & tough just to discard so nonchalantly. We’re going to need 3 QBs going into camp and there’s every reason to believe he should be one of those 

[CapsSkins]

If the new staff drafts Maye, they'd probably keep Howell to back him up. Two former teammates and I think close friends... Howell would be a 3rd year vet by that time, too, and by all accounts a smart guy. Could be a great QB room chemistry-wise.

[Wyvern]

17 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

You’re selectively ignoring a lot of strong counter examples - Brock Purdy, Stroud, Trevor Lawrence, the list goes on and on….  There are quite a few rookies who outperformed Howell during their rookie year by a wide margin 

Maybe you shouldn't include Trevor Lawrence in that list.  In his first full season, Lawrence had 12 TD's 17 INT's and 3641 passing yards.  In this season after 16 games, Howell has 20 TD's, 19 INT's and 3973 yards.

.

17 hours ago, skinsarethebest said:

 

 

Edited January 4 by Wyvern

[zCommander]

4 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

If the new staff drafts Maye, they'd probably keep Howell to back him up. Two former teammates and I think close friends... Howell would be a 3rd year vet by that time, too, and by all accounts a smart guy. Could be a great QB room chemistry-wise.

 

Real close friends. 

 

“I talk to Drake pretty much every day,” Howell said when asked about his relationship with Maye.

 

“He’s one of my really good friends, just super excited for him. What a great career, and it’s been so much fun to watch him and just knowing who he is, the type of person he is, and how hard he’s worked to get to where he is; it’s so much fun to watch. Obviously, super excited for him to be in the NFL, and he definitely deserves it. He has a good head on his shoulders and a lot of really good people around him that will help lead him in the right direction. I try to be there for him anytime he needs something. It’s getting ready to get busy for him with the training and everything, so I’m excited for him. He’ll handle it well, and he’ll come to the NFL and light it up, for sure.”

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[FootballZombie]

DCs got to go to bed early the night before they played us.

They didn't even have to plan for the run.

 

Its like a half-day.

[philibusters]

On 1/4/2024 at 12:48 PM, Wyvern said:

 

 

Sorry, PFF and other social media analysts -- I don't think Howell's the worst QB in the league  -- look around, you'll quickly see lots of other starters and 'wannabe-starters' who looked a lot worse than him. IMHO, Howell just happened to be the starter, in essentially his rookie season, for a badly-run Rivera-led Washington team.  And since he wasn't able to carry the team to a winning season, and he's wearing down late in the season against night ranked defenses, he is now being made the scapegoat for the team's losing season.  And as I mentioned above, there's plenty of blame to go around.

 

Lastly, I apologize for my long post.  I just wanted to take the time to type it all out to offer up my thoughts on this matter for fellow ES'ers to read, consider, and/or comment.  These are just my own views and I don't plan to react to those seeking to debate with me on what I'd typed out above.  However, I do value reading other peoples thoughts on this matter -- after all, most ES'ers are better dialed in on this issue than many of the media pundits!

 

 

 

For what its worth PFF doesn't even hate Sam Howell.  He has a 62 season grade.   That is higher than Heinicke in 2021 and both Wentz and Heinicke last year.  A 62 is not a good grade, but its not terrible.  And their grade does factor in the sacks he is taking.  Granted his grade has dropped quite a bit the last six games.  After 10 games he had a 69 overall season grade.  That is dropped to 62 meaning over the last 6 games his grade would average out to maybe the low 50's.   PFF had been fair enough to Howell in my opinion.  For example in the Jets game he got benched in they graded him in the high 50's (not good but not terrible) and gave him zero turnover worthy plays despite throwing two interceptions because one interception came off a deflection from Logan Thomas and the other interception came on an inbreaking route where Curtis Samuels slipped.

 

One thing I have learned from the PFF podcast before this season that  made view Howell a little differently is that sacks are heavily QB driven.   Every sack could be driven be 3 or 4 units, the QB, O-Line, the back and TE's in protection, or the receivers not getting open.   But its not a 25%-25%-25%-25% split and the unit that most drives that stat is QB.  So it was ingrained in my head that QB heavily contribute to QB sacks coming into this season, so I never really bought the line that Howell was not playing a big part in our big sacks allowed total.  All that said, when Howell was taking a lot of sacks, he was playing reasonably well.  At about the same time the sack numbers dropped, he stopped playing as well. 

Edited January 5 by philibusters

[method man]

3 hours ago, philibusters said:

 

For what its worth PFF doesn't even hate Sam Howell.  He has a 62 season grade.   That is higher than Heinicke in 2021 and both Wentz and Heinicke last year.  A 62 is not a good grade, but its not terrible.  And their grade does factor in the sacks he is taking.  Granted his grade has dropped quite a bit the last six games.  After 10 games he had a 69 overall season grade.  That is dropped to 62 meaning over the last 6 games his grade would average out to maybe the low 50's.   PFF had been fair enough to Howell in my opinion.  For example in the Jets game he got benched in they graded him in the high 50's (not good but not terrible) and gave him zero turnover worthy plays despite throwing two interceptions because one interception came off a deflection from Logan Thomas and the other interception came on an inbreaking route where Curtis Samuels slipped.

 

One thing I have learned from the PFF podcast before this season that  made view Howell a little differently is that sacks are heavily QB driven.   Every sack could be driven be 3 or 4 units, the QB, O-Line, the back and TE's in protection, or the receivers not getting open.   But its not a 25%-25%-25%-25% split and the unit that most drives that stat is QB.  So it was ingrained in my head that QB heavily contribute to QB sacks coming into this season, so I never really bought the line that Howell was not playing a big part in our big sacks allowed total.  All that sack, when Howell was taking a lot of sacks, he was playing reasonably well.  At about the same time the sack numbers dropped, he stopped playing as well. 

My hypothesis is they overloaded with him trying to cut back on sacks to the extent that he started to watch the rush more vs keeping his eyes on his receivers.

 

I don’t buy this “getting Ramsey-d” narrative. If that were true, he would’ve broken earlier when he was getting sacked several times a game back to back

[skinsmania123]

19 hours ago, FuriousD said:

Surely the good news for all our young players is that competent coaches are on the horizon. Yeah that’s an assumption but we have to believe things are going to be better, right?

As for Howell, he’s too young, talented, cheap & tough just to discard so nonchalantly. We’re going to need 3 QBs going into camp and there’s every reason to believe he should be one of those 

I go back and forth and part of me says with a competent HC, OC, maybe even a QB coach, like Mahomes has, Sam could grow here.  Plus, he is still on a rookie deal. The other side of me says he needs a change, a better setup, but somewhere else. Maybe with McVay, backing up a proven vet. But ultimately a coach that sees the potential we saw in the beginning of the season.  I think some guys who have a tough year like Sam, have compensatory factors in their favor, such as mental toughness. 

 

There are just so many unknowns regarding Howell, due to the ridiculous, predictable play calling of EB.  An unstable O line and the stuff we have talked about on here. But I have to admit at this juncture I am on the fence.  And I trust that a new GM and HC will sort it out.

[Conn]

18 minutes ago, method man said:

My hypothesis is they overloaded with him trying to cut back on sacks to the extent that he started to watch the rush more vs keeping his eyes on his receivers.

 

I don’t buy this “getting Ramsey-d” narrative. If that were true, he would’ve broken earlier when he was getting sacked several times a game back to back

They forcibly sped up his mental clock but then didn’t provide him answers downfield against tougher defenses. 

[RandyHolt]

People blame Howell for our sacks. I credit him for NOT setting a sack record by knowing when to bail. But more than that? Being able to make throws on the run after bailing out our crappy OL that could never seem to pick up blitzes nor stunts. He was a Mahomesish a few times completing really difficult throws. For a while I think he led the league in that category. Sure he held the ball but that doesnt factor in routes and what EB was wanting him to do. We all saw all 22s where he was sacked & no WR was in position to even look back yet.  Our WRs looked lost and played like crap. All year.

 

I still call bunk at PFFs OL grades. We have to be the worst in pass pro when 4 were not DL rushing in lanes. What's our grade on that? ~100% on coaching.

Edited January 6 by RandyHolt

[El Mexican]

21 hours ago, CapsSkins said:

If the new staff drafts Maye, they'd probably keep Howell to back him up. Two former teammates and I think close friends... Howell would be a 3rd year vet by that time, too, and by all accounts a smart guy. Could be a great QB room chemistry-wise.

 

That would be great, man. But this is WSH.

 

The reality is that if the new shiny QB starts to struggle a large group of fans will start asking demanding vocally for Howell. 

 

I think the new regime will try to start fresh in all aspects of the team and includes drafting a top QB as well as lesser known guy like Shanny did.

That way these new guys are 100% loyal to the new coach and new FO.

 

Howell would be wise to change teams. He's more than competent, very young, and tough.

A lot of teams are looking for that kind of back-up QB. Not our team though, for the reasons explained above. 

Edited January 5 by El Mexican

[profusion]

13 minutes ago, El Mexican said:

 

That would be great, man. But this is WSH.

 

The reality is that if the new shiny QB starts to struggle a large group of fans will start asking demanding vocally for Howell. 

 

I think the new regime will try to start fresh in all aspects of the team and includes drafting a top QB as well as lesser known guy like Shanny did.

That way these new guys are 100% loyal to the new coach and new FO.

 

Howell would be wise to change teams. He's more than competent, very young, and tough.

A lot of teams are looking for that kind of back-up QB. Not our team though, for the reasons explained above. 

 

Also, a team in rebuilding mode is going to want (1) as much draft capital as possible, and (2) a wise veteran QB to mentor their rookie. Howell doesn't satisfy the latter, and his trade value, while not overwhelming, would appeal to a new front office. Especially if the alternative is a potential 21st Century "Sonny vs. Billy" situation. Nobody wants that.

[ThatNFLChick]

32 minutes ago, profusion said:

 

Also, a team in rebuilding mode is going to want (1) as much draft capital as possible, and (2) a wise veteran QB to mentor their rookie. Howell doesn't satisfy the latter, and his trade value, while not overwhelming, would appeal to a new front office. Especially if the alternative is a potential 21st Century "Sonny vs. Billy" situation. Nobody wants that.

 

Agreed. I also prefer it to. There is nothing left for Sam here IMO. 

 

Him being friends with Maye means nothing. It will be a new offensive system so its not like Howell can teach him anything (and even of EB stayed, I still don't think Howell could really teach him anything considering how much he struggled). 

 

A veteran is the way to go. We heard Mahomes talk about how valuable Alex Smith was. We heard Jordan Love talk about learning from Rodgers. We are seeing now how Flacco's experience is helping the Browns. 

[method man]

3 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Agreed. I also prefer it to. There is nothing left for Sam here IMO. 

 

Him being friends with Maye means nothing. It will be a new offensive system so its not like Howell can teach him anything (and even of EB stayed, I still don't think Howell could really teach him anything considering how much he struggled). 

 

A veteran is the way to go. We heard Mahomes talk about how valuable Alex Smith was. We heard Jordan Love talk about learning from Rodgers. We are seeing now how Flacco's experience is helping the Browns. 

Asking you this again, why can’t you just go get a longtime vet to be QB3?

[ThatNFLChick]

3 minutes ago, method man said:

Asking you this again, why can’t you just go get a longtime vet to be QB3?

 

Because you have to pay them? Why are you paying someone to be inactive most games? Very few teams carry 3 QBs on the active roster. We don't right now. And most will not sign with a team to be QB3.

 

What is the point in keeping Howell rather than finding a trade partner if you know he is not the guy? He got outplayed by Jacoby, nobody should even feel comfortable with him as a backup. Most people want him to start against the Cowboys and these last weeks of the season because there is a greater chance that he will lose. That means most have zero faith in him clearly. 

Edited January 5 by ThatNFLChick

[RandyHolt]

I have a hunch we will draft 3rd.  Regardless I think the record will show the top rated QB on the board... often isn't. I would be fine with drafting other offense and rolling Sam another year. He showed me enough to not want to jettison him as a priority. If he is really that bad we will be in great position again. It'd be great to hold onto Jacoby in that scenario and have Sam on a short leash.

 

Building a team I would target a stud LT before overhyped QB coming from a great program surrounded by studs. I remember being fooled by RG3 throwing to wide open receivers all year. I wasn't the only one. IIRC then we learned they had dumbed down the playbook for him.

 

Edited January 5 by RandyHolt

[Conn]

38 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I have a hunch we will draft 3rd.  Regardless I think the record will show the top rated QB on the board... often isn't. I would be fine with drafting other offense and rolling Sam another year. He showed me enough to not want to jettison him as a priority. If he is really that bad we will be in great position again. It'd be great to hold onto Jacoby in that scenario and have Sam on a short leash.

 

Building a team I would target a stud LT before overhyped QB coming from a great program surrounded by studs. I remember being fooled by RG3 throwing to wide open receivers all year. I wasn't the only one. IIRC then we learned they had dumbed down the playbook for him.

 

Almost seems like you hope we finish with the 3rd pick instead of the 2nd so that your scenario is more likely to play out (aka you want to have a pick where taking a QB is less compelling). Not sure how wanting a less valuable pick to use or trade makes sense, but wow you must be very confident in your opinion 

Edited January 5 by Conn

[Skinsinparadise]

37 minutes ago, RandyHolt said:

I have a hunch we will draft 3rd.  Regardless I think the record will show the top rated QB on the board... often isn't. I would be fine with drafting other offense and rolling Sam another year. He showed me enough to not want to jettison him as a priority. If he is really that bad we will be in great position again. It'd be great to hold onto Jacoby in that scenario and have Sam on a short leash.

 

Building a team I would target a stud LT before overhyped QB coming from a great program surrounded by studs. I remember being fooled by RG3 throwing to wide open receivers all year. I wasn't the only one. IIRC then we learned they had dumbed down the playbook for him.

 

 

I'd gag if they did so.  It feels like doubling down on the last 25 years or so.  But regardless, I'd hold my nose and hope the GM is right and if he isn't he should be canned -- you can't make a move like that without there being consequences. 

 

I think the odds are close to zero that they don't go QB.  But will see.

 

[mhd24]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I'd gag if they did so.  It feels like doubling down on the last 25 years or so.  But regardless, I'd hold my nose and hope the GM is right and if he isn't he should be canned -- you can't make a move like that without there being consequences. 

 

I think the odds are close to zero that they don't go QB.  But will see.

 

 

We had the best LT you could possibly have in Trent and we didn't win squat.  This is a QB league period.  I can't fathom us not taking a QB.  

[philibusters]

19 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

We had the best LT you could possibly have in Trent and we didn't win squat.  This is a QB league period.  I can't fathom us not taking a QB.  

 

And Chris Samuels for the 9 seasons between 2000 and 2008, where Samuels made 6 pro-bowls during those 9 years (no all pro teams first or second so he was consistently very good, but very absolutely dominant like Trent Williams).

[Warhead36]

You dont need a franchise LT. You just need five guys who work well together and no major weak points.

 

You absolutely without a doubt need a franchise QB.