The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

He hasn't continually sucked so far, though. 

 

It's wild how fast we forget an entire sample size when one game goes poorly.

 

In one game Howell got sacked 9 times and threw 4 INTs. It was a bad game. No denying it. From him, the OL, the OC and the receivers. Just not a good game.

 

But prior to that he also had a meh game and a very good game.

 

So why don't we pump the brakes on statements like "continuously sucks".

 

The rest of your post is reasonable.

I’ll “yes and” to say that anybody who wasn’t expecting this kind of performance with a 23 year old QB starting his first season, we’ll, you should have.

 

One thing I posted in some prediction thread somewhere is the offense really wouldn’t look right until probably late October, as the new OL all got a chance to work together and Howell started about 8 games total. 
 

It’s a new offense for everybody, 4 OL playing in new spots, and a second year QB, first time starting, learning one of the most complex, worst offenses in NFL history.  
 

It’s going to take some time, there will be awful games from everybody, and it’s to be expected.  

[LD0506]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

It’s going to take some time, there will be awful games from everybody, and it’s to be expected.  

 

I'm getting tired of expecting awful games

[samy316]

6 minutes ago, LD0506 said:

 

I'm getting tired of expecting awful games

Unfortunately, I think we can expect to see more of these awful games, due to the lack of talent on the OL, and the head-scratching coaching of EB.  I hope EB is smart enough to recognize the deficiencies on the OL, and adapt to becoming either a balanced team with 50-50 run pass, or transforming into a run team, with an emphasis on short, quick passes.  The games against the good to great teams will look more like this past Sunday, than it will the first two weeks of the season.  I’m interested to see how EB manages the game on Sunday.

Edited September 29, 2023 by samy316

[Warhead36]

I want to give him a full complete season start to finish before making any sort of declarative statement one way or another.

 

Now if he strings together another 2-3 games like last week's, then you pull the plug. But I think he'll bounce back and play better.

[zCommander]

34 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I want to give him a full complete season start to finish before making any sort of declarative statement one way or another.

 

Now if he strings together another 2-3 games like last week's, then you pull the plug. But I think he'll bounce back and play better.

 

The next three games after the Eagles game will be telling before we play the Eagles again in 4 weeks. EB and Howell need to do a lot better on Sunday though. 

[skinzplay]

RR's bungling of the OL has hamstrung the player who likely holds the key to his future with us. That's how paradoxical (and nonsensical) RR's decision-making has been in the highly valued HC/GM position flex. Matsko pulled no punches in letting it be known we shouldn't sign Norwell and Turner. RR did it anyway. The signing of Daniels was RR, not ANYONE with acumen at assessing OL. Read what Keim was writing about that pick, then read between those lines. He's gone people and not fast enough.

[DJHJR86]

 

17 of his 19 sacks have come when he's had 2.5 seconds or more to throw. He's 10th of all quarterbacks with average time to throw.

 

 

He also has the second lowest play action drop backs in the league.

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

I'd take more PA shots once we get inside the 50. That's where we boggle down anyway, so why not take a shot at big plays in that spot?

[KDawg]

I still don’t buy the “time to throw” stat. Watching other games there is no way that is true. 

[wit33]

The prognosticators are in full force at the moment. A lot of season left!

 

Now all are wanting balance when the passing centric offense doesn’t provide great returns in a game. There’s no bulletproof run to pass ratio, whatever you think is the right ratio will fail miserably at times in a game as well—that’s the NFL.

 

The moment adversity hits, everyone wants to take the safe and path that leads to a mediocre offense. The “Andy Reid offense” is pass centric and will consistently provide ammo to those who want to attack the run to pass ratio, especially following a loss. 
 

Reid led offenses generally have a high YPC for the RBs in the system, but a great deal of that is due to being a pass centric offense and forcing the defense to pick and choose. Many pointed to fact Robinson averaged 7 yards per carry last game, but that has everything to do with the pass heavy game script everyone is griping about—can’t have it both ways. 
 

Hoping EB ignores the noise and goes full throttle with what he believes is best to score points. Not sure Ron will stay out of the way much longer before going more ground and pound, which I’m cool with and value, but I’m all in for becoming a dynamic pass offense that’s supported by an efficient and timely run game. 
 

[Skinsinparadise]

18 hours ago, wit33 said:

 

Ouch. Seems unscathed to date. He’ll struggle to beat the record due to an eventual benching of sack numbers continue to rise.

 

Do you think Jacoby would help with sack numbers? 

 

Would Jacoby help with the sack numbers, probably.  But I like Howell's upside more not just because he's young but I think he's more talented.  

 

Edited September 29, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I still don’t buy the “time to throw” stat. Watching other games there is no way that is true. 

There’s variables to it as well, time to throw doesn’t necessarily mean the OL held up for X.XX seconds.

[KDawg]

24 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

There’s variables to it as well, time to throw doesn’t necessarily mean the OL held up for X.XX seconds.

I am fully aware what it means but… what does it mean?

 

if there is an unblocked defender coming through the line clean, does that effect it? What about one that has clearly beat the OL but the OL still has a hand on? What about when the DL displaces the OL and has them on roller skates into the pocket but they aren’t to the QB… what’s that count for? Does the QB running around and buying himself time count as time to throw?

 

Does every statistician track the stat exactly the same with no room for human error?

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I am fully aware what it means but… what does it mean?

 

if there is an unblocked defender coming through the line clean, does that effect it? What about one that has clearly beat the OL but the OL still has a hand on? What about when the DL displaces the OL and has them on roller skates into the pocket but they aren’t to the QB… what’s that count for? Does the QB running around and buying himself time count as time to throw?

 

Does every statistician track the stat exactly the same with no room for human error?

I was poking holes in the stat, not defending it.

 

it’s my understanding that the stat is simply the time to throw on each passing down, with zero nuance as to how it transpired.

[BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93]

Idk. You can certainly question the stat but I think it makes more sense to question the young, inexperienced QB that’s falling victim to the same things he did in college in a completely unrelated environment. 
 

Id recommend everyone go and listen to Logan Paulsen on Keim’s podcast. He didn’t dance around that he thinks most of it is Sam and with a veteran QB back there, none of these discussions are being had. Bills players basically came out and said similar statements after the game. 
 

It’s not so much a defense of the OLine as much as it is a statement of what Oline play looks like in the modern NFL. There’s a huge  dearth of competent Oline play across the league right now. I was listening to PFF’s weekly pod and Sam Monsoon argued the biggest benefit of a developmental football league would be solving the lack of Oline talent issue league wide. It’s almost a crisis with few exceptions where teams really invest hard. I think Logan Paulsen used the phrase “Cs get degrees” in reference to Oline play. You can run competent/good offense with average OLine play provided you have a QB with competent pocket presence. 
 

So back to our team, if anything we should be sideeying Ron for not building a better than average Oline to mitigate the known flaws of the rookie QB you’ve decided to rest your career on. 

[KDawg]

40 minutes ago, BRAVEONTHEWARPATH93 said:

Idk. You can certainly question the stat but I think it makes more sense to question the young, inexperienced QB that’s falling victim to the same things he did in college in a completely unrelated environment. 
 

Id recommend everyone go and listen to Logan Paulsen on Keim’s podcast. He didn’t dance around that he thinks most of it is Sam and with a veteran QB back there, none of these discussions are being had. Bills players basically came out and said similar statements after the game. 
 

It’s not so much a defense of the OLine as much as it is a statement of what Oline play looks like in the modern NFL. There’s a huge  dearth of competent Oline play across the league right now. I was listening to PFF’s weekly pod and Sam Monsoon argued the biggest benefit of a developmental football league would be solving the lack of Oline talent issue league wide. It’s almost a crisis with few exceptions where teams really invest hard. I think Logan Paulsen used the phrase “Cs get degrees” in reference to Oline play. You can run competent/good offense with average OLine play provided you have a QB with competent pocket presence. 
 

So back to our team, if anything we should be sideeying Ron for not building a better than average Oline to mitigate the known flaws of the rookie QB you’ve decided to rest your career on. 

 

I think everyone is basically on the same page as far as blame goes:

 

1. Ron Rivera

2. Offensive line

3. Sam Howell/Eric Bienemy (about even, though EB might be more of an issue, we'll see if he adjust this week)

4. Receivers

 

Howell isn't blameless and no one has said that.

 

But to be accurate, I've always questioned PFF's offensive line and pressure statistics. For years. 

[wit33]

 

23 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think everyone is basically on the same page as far as blame goes:

 

1. Ron Rivera

2. Offensive line

3. Sam Howell/Eric Bienemy (about even, though EB might be more of an issue, we'll see if he adjust this week)

4. Receivers

 

Howell isn't blameless and no one has said that.

 

But to be accurate, I've always questioned PFF's offensive line and pressure statistics. For years. 

Stating the obvious, but Washington is 2-1, not 0-3 lol.  
 

Fascinated to see how EB and Howell respond to last week with yet another SB contender level opponent. 

[MartinC]

5 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

learning one of the most complex, worst offenses in NFL history.  

 

Agree with everything you posted here - except this.

 

First the complexity part of a WCO is mainly around the verbiage - most NFL playbooks are a blending of concepts from various schemes. I'm then assuming that the 'worst offenses in NFL history" is not a reference to the WCO scheme?? You'd be way out on a ledge on your own claiming the WCO is the worst offense in NFL history.     

[KDawg]

8 minutes ago, wit33 said:

 

Stating the obvious, but Washington is 2-1, not 0-3 lol.  
 

Fascinated to see how EB and Howell respond to last week with yet another SB contender level opponent. 

No ****?

 

You can have issues and still be winning games when you’ve played the bottom of the League. We need to fix things to be long term contenders. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

20 minutes ago, MartinC said:

 

Agree with everything you posted here - except this.

 

First the complexity part of a WCO is mainly around the verbiage - most NFL playbooks are a blending of concepts from various schemes. I'm then assuming that the 'worst offenses in NFL history" is not a reference to the WCO scheme?? You'd be way out on a ledge on your own claiming the WCO is the worst offense in NFL history.     

Total autocorrect issue while posting from my phone. 

 

It was supposed to be "learning one of the WORDIEST offenses..."  Reid's version of the WCO is one of the wordiest versions of a notoriously wordy offense.  Just spitting out the play can be a challenge for young QBs.  Montana said it took 3 years to get the terminology down.  And that was the original Walsh version. Reid's has MORE words, as I understand it.  

 

I love the WCO.

 

Damn autocorrect.  

 

4 hours ago, LD0506 said:

 

I'm getting tired of expecting awful games

This is what happens when you have a starter with 3 games under his belt.  Unless you happen to get a Ben Rothlisburger or a Tom Brady, just about every first-year starting QB has serious ups and downs.  (The caveat to both of those 2, both had phenomenal first year seasons in a different era where you could run the ball and play defense and win 12 games in a season.  That's not the case anymore.)

 

I still think Howell is going to be fine.  But he's not there yet.  He's going to have ups and downs.  I actually think, against all odds, he's going to have a good game this weekend.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

56 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think everyone is basically on the same page as far as blame goes:

 

1. Ron Rivera

2. Offensive line

3. Sam Howell/Eric Bienemy (about even, though EB might be more of an issue, we'll see if he adjust this week)

4. Receivers

 

Howell isn't blameless and no one has said that.

 

But to be accurate, I've always questioned PFF's offensive line and pressure statistics. For years. 

I'm not.

 

1. Ron

2. Sam (but I'm ok with that because he's learning)

3. OL

4. EB but only in the last game, and I don't subscribe to the "Run the ball more with a young QB" theory. Or even "run the ball more." I do, however, think he needs to change things up.  

 

As you know, I have always questioned PFF's stats.  But the ESPN Pass Block Win Rate has the OL square at 16th in the league, middle of the pack, and Run Block Win Rate as 19th in the league. These seem to be generally accepted as reasonably good and reliable statistics, as much as any statistic can be reasonably good or reliable in football.  Are 16th and 19th something to write home about?  No.  But it's also not the train wreck some folks want to make it out to be.  

 

Better, faster QB play would make everything look better.  OL play, receivers, and play calling.  If you put Cousins in this exact same situation, we're a much better offense right now.  And I use Cousins because he's a quick decision maker, but definitely somewhere in that middle-tier of NFL QBs.  

 

If Sam improves significantly in his processing speed, sacks will go down.  FWIW, Howell's "pocket time" metric, which is "Average time between snap and throw or pressure" is 2.7 seconds.  That's tied for the second worst in the league with R. Wilson, Z. Wilson, Richardson and Fields. 

 

My concern is he will get himself killed before he figures it out.  So, I hope he's a fast learner.  If he isn't, he's going to end up on IR sooner rather than later.  

 

[profusion]

I'm more worried about Howell getting injured from scrambling than from him being sacked. The main risk is probably from him developing bad habits before his internal clock speeds up.

[skins island connection]

 

 The thing that gets me is when EB got here, he HAD to have noticed how awful the line is and implemented plays to keep Howell from being rattled/hit alot/sacked/driven into the ground/scared ****less/panicked and making bad decisions. Why didn't he?

 

This vaunted HCing prospect people were harping about isn't really panning out. Had Mahomes been here hec even Turner would've looked like a genius, but alas the play designs and schemes evidently appear to be somewhat easily recognizable. 

 

Howell will have bad games, but that was a little beyond bad and a little concerning, and yes the Ws were against the Cards and Broncos { barely } but the schedule only gets worse from here and my concern is it mentally damages Howell to the point it feels overwhelming, and its kinda difficult to learn the game when he spends alot of time on his back...

[kingdaddy]

7 hours ago, DJHJR86 said:

 

17 of his 19 sacks have come when he's had 2.5 seconds or more to throw. He's 10th of all quarterbacks with average time to throw.

 

 

He also has the second lowest play action drop backs in the league.

 

 

 

this info is huge.....i've wondered about our lack of play action or anything else creative. Sam is being asked to drop back and make plays....period. 

[Commander202]

Crazy part about the OL right now is supposedly Charles and Cosmi have played well.

5 hours ago, profusion said:

I'm more worried about Howell getting injured from scrambling than from him being sacked. The main risk is probably from him developing bad habits before his internal clock speeds up.

At this rate I’d be surprised if Howell makes it through the season. I never seen so many sacks allowed as a fan and it always feel like Howell going to get a concussion .