The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[bird_1972]

4 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Yeah I think I heard the same. I think it was something like: London, Wilson, then Olave/Dotson. They had those guys basically ranked the same, so they decided to trade down and get whoever was left while picking up some draft capital. Its also why they didn't take the Packers trade, because they knew Dotson would be gone by the time that pick came up.

 

I may have missed this during the draft, but what was the Packers offer to us in terms of a trade?

[philibusters]

2 hours ago, samy316 said:

Sorry, I gotta disagree with this.  Carr is a fringe Top 10 QB, and he’s the ant-Kirk in that he’s clutch, and can pull out wins when his team needs him.  Last year, he dragged a team that lost its head coach, with a terrible defense and his #1 WR Riggs kicked out of the league to the playoffs, and was :30 seconds from beating the eventual AFC Champion Bengals.  If Tannehill was the QB for the Raiders, they would miss the playoffs for sure.

 

Carr is definitely a franchise QB, and you’ll see how good he is this year with the addition of Adams.

 

I would have said the same thing, but then I listened to this podcast (starting around the 23 minute mark) and it changed my mind.  He gives the example of how winning changes perception.   Basically Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr have been pretty consistent when it comes to PFF grading and expected points added per drop back (each of the last four season).   The first two season, the Vikings were good and Cousins was considered around the 10th best QB.  The last two seasons, the Vikings haven't been good, but not because of what Cousins is doing, but mainly because of a dropoff in defense.  Now people are ranking him 16th or so.   And the thing is, while his numbers have been very consistent, they were actually slightly better the past two years.  Carr is the opposite.   Carr numbers were just as good for the 2018 and 2019 seasons but they were 4-12 and 7-9.  The past two seasons they have gone 8-8 and 10-7, but Carr's performance haven't improved at least according to PFF and EPA metrics--they have held steady.  Carr has gone from like 17th or 18th in most rankings to around 12th.

 

It definitely seems winning helps the perception of a QB.  Same with Matthew Stafford.  Stafford's PFF grade the past three years were 82, 82, 81.  Last year was his lowest (the 81).  His EPA did go up last year, but that could have been due more to having better surrounding talent, then him playing better.   Yet the perception of Stafford I think is significantly higher now than it was last year at this time.

 

 

Edited August 5, 2022 by philibusters

[The Consigliere]

11 hours ago, KDawg said:

Howell didn’t have a bad season. 3000 yards, 24/9 and 828 on the ground with 11 TDs is a bad season now. Some of you are wild.

 

Also Trubisky was a commodity because the other FA options were worse. He was never going to be a high end starter in the league. He was a stop gap.

 

I’m surprised Pickett isn’t looking great. I was real low on him in the draft. I think I was one of the lowest on him on this forum. But I thought he went to the one situation he could find success given he didn’t have to move far to play for them and was familiar with the facilities and people. It’s still really early to pass judgement, though. So I’ll wait. But color me not surprised (at the fact he isn't what many touted him to be, but still surprised he is seemingly finding zero success in a familiar situation).

 

Howell came into the year projected to be a top 5-15 pick, and the #1 or #2 QB in the class.  Every single production marker his final year was down. Every single one. Save rushing. 

 

Now despite all that, I thought it was largely immaterial. He broke out as an age 19 starter, was awesome from the jump and his only subpar season (for him) was after his starting and sattelite backs and both his starting WR's moved on to the NFL). So not surprising at all that his play fell off. I was hoping we could get him in a trade down in round 2 or early round 3. I was absolutely stunned he dropped as far as he hid.

 

As for Trubisky, I hear that, the problem is, to be a stop gap you have to at least be competent, there's never been any evidence he was adequate at anything other than athleticism. So I didn't see that.

 

Not a fan of Pickett, I had Willis as my #1 for ceiling, Corral and Howell as my 2 (slight preference for Howell until draft capital used), Picket was after Ridder for me and maybe another guy, can't remember, no higher than like 6th for me. Doesnt mean he's done, he could be great. Same for Wentz, I don't think he's this bad (as practice reports) the same way I dont think he's '17 version of self either. I just think he's a league average starter across the breadth of a season, nice tools, but not special. Pickett could get decent, we'll see, but I'm not expecting much. 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

[evmiii]

Been a little bored recently so I have found myself watch and listening to anybody who was talking about Carson Wentz.  Watched a bunch of opinions, some credible and some not, about what went wrong in Indy.  A relatively consistent theme emerged with concerns about offensive schemes, play calling, route running etc.  Not to provide excuses for Wentz who consistently passed on yard gaining check downs trying to force the ball into coverage down field, but often the play designs did not provide the QB many good options.

 

That got me thinking, is Scott Turner a better offensive schemer?  Will he put Wentz in a better position to succeed.  It seems that’s his primary task is to put Carson into plays and situations he is most comfortable.  I think there is as much pressure on Turner as there is Wentz.  I’m struggling with my confidence level in Turner and Wentz, but I do fully understand their success or failure will be hand in hand. 

[Koolblue13]

Howell really is an interesting player. He'll get a year or two to develop and be in a great place to do it, too. Really excited for him. He was my top guy in this draft.

[Franklin60]

1 hour ago, evmiii said:

Been a little bored recently so I have found myself watch and listening to anybody who was talking about Carson Wentz.  Watched a bunch of opinions, some credible and some not, about what went wrong in Indy.  A relatively consistent theme emerged with concerns about offensive schemes, play calling, route running etc.  Not to provide excuses for Wentz who consistently passed on yard gaining check downs trying to force the ball into coverage down field, but often the play designs did not provide the QB many good options.

 

That got me thinking, is Scott Turner a better offensive schemer?  Will he put Wentz in a better position to succeed.  It seems that’s his primary task is to put Carson into plays and situations he is most comfortable.  I think there is as much pressure on Turner as there is Wentz.  I’m struggling with my confidence level in Turner and Wentz, but I do fully understand their success or failure will be hand in hand. 

For a guy who supposedly forces balls into coverage downfield a lot, Wentz sure didn’t throw a lot of interceptions last year. Sans 2020 when the Eagles had to use backups all over the offensive line and WR/TE, he’s never been a high INT guy. Quite the contrary, in fact. His INT rate is usually pretty good (meaning low). 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, evmiii said:

Been a little bored recently so I have found myself watch and listening to anybody who was talking about Carson Wentz.  Watched a bunch of opinions, some credible and some not, about what went wrong in Indy.  A relatively consistent theme emerged with concerns about offensive schemes, play calling, route running etc.  Not to provide excuses for Wentz who consistently passed on yard gaining check downs trying to force the ball into coverage down field, but often the play designs did not provide the QB many good options.

 

That got me thinking, is Scott Turner a better offensive schemer?  Will he put Wentz in a better position to succeed.  It seems that’s his primary task is to put Carson into plays and situations he is most comfortable.  I think there is as much pressure on Turner as there is Wentz.  I’m struggling with my confidence level in Turner and Wentz, but I do fully understand their success or failure will be hand in hand. 

 

Statistically players going in motion and shifting alignments results in slightly better outcomes than otherwise. It's difficult to determine good OC's and not, but supposedly Reich is below average in the pre-snap movement and Turner is above-average.

[Skinsinparadise]

2. The Carson Wentz experience

Don’t misconstrue this: the addition of Carson Wentz has every reason to be a positive one for the Commanders. To not rehash why he is an upgrade over Heinicke too much, let’s take this one stat: on passes over 20 yards last season, Wentz went 25/59 for 842 yards, 7 TDs, and 3 INTs, with 15 big-time throws. His PFF grade on deep throws was an elite 90.7.

Conversely, Taylor Heinicke went 22/67 for 665 yards, 8 TDs and 8 INTs. Heinicke had 12 turnover-worthy plays on deep passes, and Wentz had just three on deep passes in 2021. So, it is pretty clear how Wentz is expected to transform Turner’s offense. He will unlock other portions of the playbook due to his arm strength and physical capabilities.

However, there is still the elephant in the room. The Commanders will be Wentz’s third team in three years. Sure, there are viable reasons or excuses to ease the team’s (and fans’) concerns. The Eagles could’ve built around Wentz better, especially at wide receiver, and drafting Jalen Hurts did nothing to help his confidence.

With Jim Irsay taking every opportunity to bash Wentz, while Chris Ballard and Frank Reich are more amicable, it seems that may have ultimately been a front office decision. One that stemmed from Wentz’s unwillingness to get the COVID-19 vaccination and subsequently testing positive before the final stretch and then falling on his face against Jacksonville.

 

Whatever the case may be, Wentz will still be on his third team in as many years. The Colts, a year after giving up a first-round pick for him, were okay flailing in the wind with no QB and trading Wentz.

So what is the hold-up with Wentz? First off, Wentz knows the physical tools he has. In 2019 Benjamin Solak, now a writer for the Ringer, wrote a piece on Wentz titled “The Quarterback who never says Die,” for SB Nation’s Eagles site, Bleeding Green Nation.

That was still when Wentz was still viewed as the answer at QB for the Eagles. Yet, he still had the propensity to always seek out the big play. He does his signature ducking out of the way of pressure, which he is exceptional at, as he escapes the collapsing pocket, before chucking a “YOLO” ball deep down the field. While, when it works, it can be jaw-droppingly awesome to watch, many times the results are, to put it nicely, lackluster.

For starters, it makes Wentz more susceptible to injuries. In his career, he has suffered a torn ACL, a back injury the year after, a concussion that knocked him out of a playoff game as he attempted to dive for a first down, spraining both ankles in 2021, and most likely a number of other unreported injuries.

 

While Wentz hasn’t missed a start due to injury since 2018, he still has been gutting it out recently. And it hinders his performance. Availability, especially healthy availability, is sometimes a player’s best trait. Especially the quarterback the Commanders just invested two mid-round picks in and has a $28M cap hit in 2022.

It has affected Wentz’s play on the field as well. His tendency to have overconfidence in his physical abilities has nearly thrown his mechanics to the wayside. He has the tendency to let his front hip fly open, leading to him missing high and air-maling his target.

The problem has resurfaced in training camp too. Just go search on Twitter and you will see a video of a Carson Wentz airmailed throw at training camp.

 

While a play in the early stages of training camp should be taken with the smallest grain of salt, it is something to monitor. Wentz’s mechanics haven’t been good over the past two seasons. It is no coincidence that he finished 32nd in CPOE in 2020, and 26th in 2021.

Wentz is most efficient when the ball is getting out quick to his playmakers, or he is allowed to use his howitzer deep down the field.

The intermediate areas of the field are where he needs the most work though. In 2021, Wentz had 13 total turnover-worthy throws. 7 came on passes 11-19 yards down the field. Piecing together Wentz’s propensity to want to push the ball down the field, with his scattershot accuracy and it is not hard to draw correlations to why this occurs.

 

Let’s take the backbreaking interception against the Titans in overtime last year. He throws a pass into triple coverage on a deep out, about 15-20 yards down the field. Standing five yards in front of him is a wide-open Jonathan Taylor who could’ve easily scampered for the first down.

Instead, Wentz tries to thread the needle and throws an interception that all but sealed Indy’s fate in a crucial inter-divisional matchup. It is the exact type of mistake that the quarterback cannot make. It is sometimes the difference between making the playoffs and not making the playoffs.

While Wentz certainly has not had ideal circumstances in terms of weaponry and Indy’s offensive line play in 2021, he is not blameless. His mechanics could use some tweaking and he needs to be more aware on the field.

The 29-year-old needs to know when to let a play die. To either hit the check down, take the sack for no gain after evading pressure, or throw the ball away. When Wentz gets himself into the most trouble is when he is trying to always make the big play.

The Commanders have a starting caliber quarterback for the first time in the Ron Rivera era. His inclination to always shoot for the big play, however, could get Washington in trouble in 2022.

Commanders fans should enter 2022 with their eyes wide open with Carson Wentz. He is a potential short-term answer but his tendency to shoot himself in the foot may make it difficult for the team to commit to him long-term.

 

https://riggosrag.com/2022/08/07/3-reasons-be-concerned-about-commanders-2022-wentz-young/2/

[Skinsinparadise]

I am not a Pickett guy but for all of the rookies, patience.  😀

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

On 2/13/2022 at 3:19 PM, Spaceman Spiff said:

Oh my God if we get Wentz I will go ****ing ape****. Like, scorched earth on this ****box ****ing franchise. 
 

I can totally see it. I can totally see it right now. Snyder, Ron, ****head Wright acting like we got a great QB and we should be excited for it. 
 

 

Went back to the original Wentz talk. Surprising how little he gets mentioned. Just found your post funny Spiff. There were a lot like this.

On 2/8/2022 at 1:49 PM, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

 

Small (probably 20-25% at best) chance for Howell to fall, virtually zero chance that Corral falls to our pick in the 2nd round

Just funny how things work out.

On 2/7/2022 at 8:07 PM, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Fun foreshadowing from when we were talking about sending 3 1rsts, Payne and Sweat for Russ or Kyler. 

 

 

[Est.1974]

On 8/5/2022 at 9:45 PM, bird_1972 said:

 

I may have missed this during the draft, but what was the Packers offer to us in terms of a trade?

They wanted to move up in the first, I assume from 22, and were also offering pick 53 that they held at the time. Sounded like ‘only 53 as well’ per Mayhew in the draft room wasn’t enough to tempt us anyway.

[Leonard Washington]

I'm not worried about the offense.  The team has moved the ball under RR+Turner and it should continue with Wentz.  Explosive plays and red zone scoring should be improved, and teams will be threatened by his arm. That should only make the short to medium throws in space easier.  If the commies require exceptional mistake free football from Wentz in order to win, they don't deserve to win.  The commies need other guys to do their job and make plays too.

 

I'm much more worried about the defense.  The defense while ok in the front and back end have not figured out how to overcome challenges in the LB position.  JDR and RR have to figure out how to get the unit to play as a team and showcase the alleged strengths.

Edited August 7, 2022 by Leonard Washington

[Spaceman Spiff]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Went back to the original Wentz talk. Surprising how little he gets mentioned. Just found your post funny Spiff. There were a lot like this.

Just funny how things work out.

 

I’ve gone from scorched earth to despair. 
 

I can see this going one of two ways. One, he just completely ****s the bed. Rolls around in it, smears it all over his face type ****ting the bed. 
 

Two, he’s pretty good, sometimes even great. Kind of like a Kirk situation, he has ardent defenders and people who can’t stand him. He doesn’t get us out of the first round of the playoffs and he goes down as another divisive quarterback in Skins/WFT/Commies history. 

[Koolblue13]

6 minutes ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

I’ve gone from scorched earth to despair. 
 

I can see this going one of two ways. One, he just completely ****s the bed. Rolls around in it, smears it all over his face type ****ting the bed. 
 

Two, he’s pretty good, sometimes even great. Kind of like a Kirk situation, he has ardent defenders and people who can’t stand him. He doesn’t get us out of the first round of the playoffs and he goes down as another divisive quarterback in Skins/WFT/Commies history. 

I can live with two. Average with moments of greatness and moments of failure would be kind of exciting, but with wins. It's like we bought Brett Farve off of Wish .com.

 

I'll take it.

[redskinss]

I just went back and watched Sam's highlights again, damn he's got an arm.

I wonder who's arm is stronger Between him and Wentz.

The deep ball drills in camp must be looking something like this at training camp this year.

 

 

 

[Koolblue13]

This **** is exciting. Hard to believe we got him in the 5th a year after he was being talked about as a top 15 pick.

 

 

[NoCalMike]

It will remain to be seen if Howell can put it all together to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but watching his highlights he looks like a mix of Heinicke's athleticism with Wentz's arm.  The big difference between him and a guy like Henicke is Howell can get flushed from the pocket but still throw over the top of a secondary while on the run.  He also can do it in a collapasing pocket.  Heinicke as gritty a player he is, will never be able to make those kinds of plays that punish a defense for being over aggressive or taking advantage of a frozen secondary once the QB scrambles. 

 

Sidenote: I hear "Dyami Brown" more in that highlight package then I've heard him mentioned since being drafted.

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, NoCalMike said:

It will remain to be seen if Howell can put it all together to become a franchise QB in the NFL, but watching his highlights he looks like a mix of Heinicke's athleticism with Wentz's arm.  The big difference between him and a guy like Henicke is Howell can get flushed from the pocket but still throw over the top of a secondary while on the run.  He also can do it in a collapasing pocket.  Heinicke as gritty a player he is, will never be able to make those kinds of plays that punish a defense for being over aggressive or taking advantage of a frozen secondary once the QB scrambles. 

 

Sidenote: I hear "Dyami Brown" more in that highlight package then I've heard him mentioned since being drafted.

We still need to see how he plays when the lights shine bright. Will he sail passes, will he make the right reads, how will defenses confuse him, how will he play when starters go down or the OL goes down, what will he do when he has a bad drive or bad stretch? so many questions that need to be answered before we hail this guy as any kind of cap hero

[kingdaddy]

On 8/6/2022 at 1:51 PM, evmiii said:

Been a little bored recently so I have found myself watch and listening to anybody who was talking about Carson Wentz.  Watched a bunch of opinions, some credible and some not, about what went wrong in Indy.  A relatively consistent theme emerged with concerns about offensive schemes, play calling, route running etc.  Not to provide excuses for Wentz who consistently passed on yard gaining check downs trying to force the ball into coverage down field, but often the play designs did not provide the QB many good options.

 

That got me thinking, is Scott Turner a better offensive schemer?  Will he put Wentz in a better position to succeed.  It seems that’s his primary task is to put Carson into plays and situations he is most comfortable.  I think there is as much pressure on Turner as there is Wentz.  I’m struggling with my confidence level in Turner and Wentz, but I do fully understand their success or failure will be hand in hand. 

I agree with you. Also, I doubt Turner will be better with Wentz than Frank Reich was but I guess we'll find out. 

[Thinking Skins]

30 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I agree with you. Also, I doubt Turner will be better with Wentz than Frank Reich was but I guess we'll find out. 

I have strong Brad Johnson Vibes right now with Wentz. Different backgrounds, but I feel like we can have that type of offense and year this year. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I have strong Brad Johnson Vibes right now with Wentz. Different backgrounds, but I feel like we can have that type of offense and year this year. 

Maybe in some ways, but ENTIRELY different type of players.  Johnson was a "point guard" type QB who distributed the ball.  He didn't have a big arm, but could spread the ball around, and was pretty good reading the defense and getting the ball to the right guy.

 

Wentz looks for the big play more, is more of a playmaker himself, and has a cannon.

 

I get you point, and don't disagree, but from a player contrast perspective, they couldn't be more different.  

[mistertim]

8 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

 

Just funny how things work out.

 

 

Yeah the draft with QBs went down much differently than many people thought. I remember saying a month or so before the draft that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Malik Willis fall to the 2nd round, and I was basically called insane by a few people for thinking that. 

 

I never would have guessed he'd fall to the 3rd, nor that Howell (who was my #2 QB) would fall all the way to the 5th. Wild.

[Thinking Skins]

58 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Maybe in some ways, but ENTIRELY different type of players.  Johnson was a "point guard" type QB who distributed the ball.  He didn't have a big arm, but could spread the ball around, and was pretty good reading the defense and getting the ball to the right guy.

 

Wentz looks for the big play more, is more of a playmaker himself, and has a cannon.

 

I get you point, and don't disagree, but from a player contrast perspective, they couldn't be more different.  

Yeah, I want trying to go into that level of detail. It's more of the feeling going into the 99 season. It was everybody being done with Norv, Brad being a nobody, losing a fan favorite in Trent, even the injury prone WR and the strong RB. 

 

I just feel like Wentz will be able to open up the offense and we'll finally see the actual Norv/Scott offense. Not that Gus didn't do it but I'm putting him as a Kirk who got us some yards but no playoffs because he couldn't win the big games (although Kirk was not with Ron). 

 

But as far as the point guard, my hopes are that Wentz is just a PG and doesn't need to make the big play so often. Hopefully there will be guys running open most plays because we're just that good. 

[KDawg]

4 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Yeah the draft with QBs went down much differently than many people thought. I remember saying a month or so before the draft that I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Malik Willis fall to the 2nd round, and I was basically called insane by a few people for thinking that. 

 

I never would have guessed he'd fall to the 3rd, nor that Howell (who was my #2 QB) would fall all the way to the 5th. Wild.

I had Howell as QB#1 at 30th overall I believe. Or around there.