The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Jds0912]

Mills was taken in the 3rd round (I wanted us to take him in the 2nd) and he exceeded expectations. Does that mean the Texans would trade him for a 2nd round pick or a 1st? Even if it was a 1st, I’d consider trading for Mills instead of spending even more to trade into the top 5 to draft one of these qbs. I love Pickett, Corral, and Willis but we know Mills can perform at the NFL level. I think I would pull the trigger on that trade. My wish list is Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, Mills, Pickett, Corral, Willis in that order. I think we definitely end up with one of them.  

[Califan007 The Constipated]

7 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Not only that but the vast majority of them were 1st round picks.

 

How many were top 10 picks?...

 

 

*******

 

 

[tshile]

1 hour ago, Rdskns2000 said:

Wentz is poison. He was a cancer on the Eagles. Couldn’t mentally handle that Foles won a Super Bowl. He can’t deal with it; if he’s not the qb. He can’t handle if there’s another qb on the roster; to take the job from him.

 

Bring traded to Indy was supposed to change that but looks like he has worn out his welcome there. Indy may move on from him.

 

You guys want to get him?

Oh my god…

 

… we’re gonna get wentz. 

 

 

 

[kingdaddy]

1 hour ago, tshile said:

Oh my god…

 

… we’re gonna get wentz. 

 

 

 

No way....RR is too connected to the league to fall into the Wentz trap. 

[HigSkin]

2 hours ago, skinny21 said:

I hadn’t really considered a trade for Goff or Garrapolo.  Interesting.  Can’t decide how I’d feel about that, particularly in comparison to Trubisky or Mariota, who wouldn’t cost picks and presumably come with lower cap hits.

 

 

Me either but if Garapalo plays well this weekend and moves SF along in the playoffs, he's probably gonna cost a #1.   Especially if none of the other better vets become available.  Rumor out of SF last year was they wanted a #1 but nobody would give that up.

[NoCalMike]

I'm weary of Jimmy G unless Scott Turner is either fired or modifies the offense a lot. JG is in the optimal offense for his skillset right now, it seems like 75% of his passes are the same slants to Deebo Samuel or hitting a wide open Kittle.  He really seems like a WCO system QB.  

[mistertim]

3 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Me either but if Garapalo plays well this weekend and moves SF along in the playoffs, he's probably gonna cost a #1.   Especially if none of the other better vets become available.  Rumor out of SF last year was they wanted a #1 but nobody would give that up.

 

Oh my god if we gave up a 1st rounder for Jimmy G I would lose my ****. 

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

Oh my god if we gave up a 1st rounder for Jimmy G I would lose my ****. 

 

Jimmy G the Ground Hog.

 

Chalk it up. First rounder going to SF.

[Thinking Skins]

11 hours ago, Jds0912 said:

Mills was taken in the 3rd round (I wanted us to take him in the 2nd) and he exceeded expectations. Does that mean the Texans would trade him for a 2nd round pick or a 1st? Even if it was a 1st, I’d consider trading for Mills instead of spending even more to trade into the top 5 to draft one of these qbs. I love Pickett, Corral, and Willis but we know Mills can perform at the NFL level. I think I would pull the trigger on that trade. My wish list is Rodgers, Watson, Wilson, Mills, Pickett, Corral, Willis in that order. I think we definitely end up with one of them.  

I agree with this to an extent (don't have an overall order yet) but I would also keep an eye on Mills. He's not somebody I'd want as a first option but when we're talking about getting Tribusky and Mariota, I'd put him above them because at least he's got the potential to be something good. But he does have 13 games of film and so its a question of what they saw in those games as his game translated to the NFL. I look at his completion percentage and it was good in most of his games this year but his YPA and QBR were horrible. I think I'd put him above Mond and Ehlinger though. 

 

I will say that (I don't know his preseason stats) early in the season he was talked about in terms of how bad he looked, how overwhelmed he was and how he wasn't ready and by the end of the year many were saying he had a better year than Lawrence or Wilson. 

[DWinzit]

51 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

I agree with this to an extent (don't have an overall order yet) but I would also keep an eye on Mills. He's not somebody I'd want as a first option but when we're talking about getting Tribusky and Mariota, I'd put him above them because at least he's got the potential to be something good. But he does have 13 games of film and so its a question of what they saw in those games as his game translated to the NFL. I look at his completion percentage and it was good in most of his games this year but his YPA and QBR were horrible. I think I'd put him above Mond and Ehlinger though. 

They liked Mills last year so they have already studied him. If he made it 7 more slots I imagine he would have been wearing B&G.

He is a way better option than Mond and Ehlinger. I mean, Mond to me is not an option of any kind. 

 

 

[Conn]

QB development is not stable nor linear. Making that assessment from outside the building he’s been in for a year while the team that has him on the biggest golden ticket in the league—a rookie contract—is trying to trade him away would be beyond arrogant. I know the Texans seem incompetent, but the Watson situation is a ticking time bomb either way from them. If they think Mills is for real in that building, he’s not going to be attainable. If they’re happy to flip him for profit despite what they’ve got going on with Watson (now and in the future even if they somehow work it out with him—you can never trust his availability again despite his talent) then that’s a major red flag. Either way you don’t want to be buying imo. 

[RansomthePasserby]

13 hours ago, tshile said:

Oh my god…

 

… we’re gonna get wentz. 

 

 

 

I hope not, my wife is from Indianapolis and her family are all Colts fans. They hate him as a player. 

[Jds0912]

1 hour ago, Thinking Skins said:

I agree with this to an extent (don't have an overall order yet) but I would also keep an eye on Mills. He's not somebody I'd want as a first option but when we're talking about getting Tribusky and Mariota, I'd put him above them because at least he's got the potential to be something good. But he does have 13 games of film and so its a question of what they saw in those games as his game translated to the NFL. I look at his completion percentage and it was good in most of his games this year but his YPA and QBR were horrible. I think I'd put him above Mond and Ehlinger though. 

 

I will say that (I don't know his preseason stats) early in the season he was talked about in terms of how bad he looked, how overwhelmed he was and how he wasn't ready and by the end of the year many were saying he had a better year than Lawrence or Wilson. 

That’s what I don’t like about getting Mariota and Trubisky. We pretty much know what they are and it doesn’t lead to Super Bowls. I’m not saying Mills is a future elite qb, but we don’t know he’s not gonna be one either. He was awful at the beginning of the season then he progressed throughout the year. Progression is the most important thing you wanna see in a young qb. I think if you take away the Bills game he had like 16td’s and 6 int’s (not 100% on this). I really liked him coming out bc of his size, his intelligence, he played in a high talent conference and was honorable mention I think, and had a great pro day. I say I would rather trade a 1st rounder for him bc to me he was almost as good of a prospect as I think Pickett and Corral are, but we have good nfl tape on Mills. If we get any qb on my list, which I think we will, I think we’re set up to succeed in the future as long as we draft well. And I’m 100% confident in our scouting department 😂

[Skinsinparadise]

I put this on the draft thread, I typically don't put things in two different threads but on rare occasion I do if it applies

 

Just listened to Rivera on 980, he's not the the type to BS, what he says he typically does.  Rivera made it clear as a bell that Heinicke isn't the guy without flat out saying it -- telling Sheehan more or less you watched this season, you know we need something here (or something to that effect) when talking about the QB spot

 

Sheehan asked him as for what he looks for in a QB.    His response.  

 

A.  The arm talent to make every kind of throw

 

B.  Quick twitch-quick release.  He doesn't want a QB that holds on to the ball too long

 

C.  Mobility and ability to evade the rush

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Jds0912 said:

That’s what I don’t like about getting Mariota and Trubisky. We pretty much know what they are and it doesn’t lead to Super Bowls. I’m not saying Mills is a future elite qb, but we don’t know he’s not gonna be one either. He was awful at the beginning of the season then he progressed throughout the year. Progression is the most important thing you wanna see in a young qb. I think if you take away the Bills game he had like 16td’s and 6 int’s (not 100% on this). I really liked him coming out bc of his size, his intelligence, he played in a high talent conference and was honorable mention I think, and had a great pro day. I say I would rather trade a 1st rounder for him bc to me he was almost as good of a prospect as I think Pickett and Corral are, but we have good nfl tape on Mills. If we get any qb on my list, which I think we will, I think we’re set up to succeed in the future as long as we draft well. And I’m 100% confident in our scouting department 😂

Yep and the question is how much did Ron like him and where is his ceiling? Is he another Heinicke / Allen / really good backup but not starter material? Or can he be a really good QB? And its a question of how good of a QB they really want. Are they looking for a Mahomes or an Alex Smith? I could easily see Heinicke / Allen / Mills becoming a Smith but more than that? I don't know

[Zim489]

12 hours ago, HigSkin said:

Me either but if Garapalo plays well this weekend and moves SF along in the playoffs, he's probably gonna cost a #1.   Especially if none of the other better vets become available.  Rumor out of SF last year was they wanted a #1 but nobody would give that up.

Everyone knows they want to move him for the cap space and there’s no downside for them to moving him. He costs no dead cap at all. 
 

Pickett measured in at the senior bowl with 8 1/4 hands. For comparison Kyler is 9.5 hands and is in the 44th percentile. 
 

he’s going to struggle driving the nfl ball

Edited January 14, 2022 by Zim489

[mistertim]

Not sure I quite get the Mills talk. Everyone and their mother knows that Watson has said he won't play another down for the Texans. So they drafted a guy and he played pretty well for a rookie...and now they're suddenly going to turn around and try to trade the only decent QB on their roster? Makes zero sense.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

17 hours ago, cakmoney61 said:

I am so not feeling giving up high picks and a young talented player to move up to #4 to draft a JAG QB.  Nuh uh!  I am not feeling that at all.  There are no can't-miss prospects.  And the only one apparently with the physical attributes to be a possible game-changer is Malik Willis.  Washington should stay right where they are and draft a QB (maybe Malik Willis) or draft another position.

 

I agree with the JAG thing BUT if you have a sure-fire QB1 in this class, which the FO might, then you go get him. Fortunately, #4 from #11 won't mortgage too much of the future to do so. In a perfect world yes, you sit at #11 and just take the best QB available at that point. I'd be hard pressed to see more than 2 QBs go in front of us. There's almost a guarantee 1 of Howell, Pickett, Corral and Willis is there at #11, and a pretty good chance 2 of them are ... and definitely not out of the realm of possibilities that at #11 you can get the #2 QB.

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

--------------

To me, the first path is trade market. You see what you have to do to get Watson. Then possibly Wilson ... maybe Rodgers or Jordan Love.

 

But the most likely path in my opinion is Mariota or Trubisky on a similar deal to what FItz got this year, probably about the same amount of $$ too. This provides you with a 2022 option/competition for Heinicke. It also *protects* you from forcing QB in the draft, to support my above comment of waiting until #11.

IF your QB falls you snatch him at #11, or even trade up a bit to get him. IF your QB does NOT fall, here's what I would do. Do whatever you can to accumulate draft capital and trade down from #11. I would take a late 1st from anyone interested in a QB (that I don't like, possibly). IE if WFT isn't sold on Pickett or Willis and Corral and Howell are off the board, trade down with Saints or Steelers. Get their late 1st and 2023 1st. Maybe an extra 3rd thrown in.

NOW, when your pick rolls around at #24 (hypothetically), you are either better positioned to get a QB you are less certain about or you draft a different position and take a flier on someone in Round 2 or 3.

#24: WR

2nd: Desmond Ritter?

3rd: TE

4th: CB

 

Now you go into the season with Trubisky, Ritter, Heinicke at QB. You also have the Steelers and your own 2023 1st round pick. Trubisky could play pretty well, lead the team to the playoffs, and maybe the team is really confident in what Ritter has to offer and he and Trubisky battle it out in 2023. Or Trubisky isn't great, Ritter comes in and isn't great, and the team stumbles to another 8-9 type season. Well, now you probably have two mid to high picks, in a stronger QB class. Maybe #1 isn't available depending who is picking at #1. But if #1 is available to trade, I would be trading both 2023 1sts (lets just say hypothetically they're picks #12 and #14) and a 2024 1st round pick to move up to draft Bryce Young.

 

Now, I know a lot can change in a year. You can't *bank* on anything. See Tank for Tua. BUT ... what this does do is gives you flexibility. You allow yourself to add draft capital in 2023 that you COULD use on a QB, or maybe it just becomes a luxury because your 2nd round QB seems legit. Or Trubisky somehow goes berzerk and leads us to a 12-5 record.

________________

Now here's where that plan can go sideways and I DON'T support it.

 

Signing Trubisky or Mariota, staying at #11 and drafting, say, a Cornerback. Then using a 2nd and 3rd on LB and Guard. And you basically come out of the off-season with Trubisky and no draft capital to get super aggressive in 2023. If we aren't taking QB at #11, or trading down and taking a QB in late 1st or early 2nd, I think it's critical to somehow stockpile additional early 2023 picks to get aggressive at QB.

[skinny21]

35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I put this on the draft thread, I typically don't put things in two different threads but on rare occasion I do if it applies

 

Just listened to Rivera on 980, he's not the the type to BS, what he says he typically does.  Rivera made it clear as a bell that Heinicke isn't the guy without flat out saying it -- telling Sheehan more or less you watched this season, you know we need something here (or something to that effect) when talking about the QB spot

 

Sheehan asked him as for what he looks for in a QB.    His response.  

 

A.  The arm talent to make every kind of throw

 

B.  Quick twitch-quick release.  He doesn't want a QB that holds on to the ball too long

 

C.  Mobility and ability to evade the rush

Not aimed at you (the messenger), but isn’t B. two different things?  Quick twitch/release and quick decision maker (processor - reading the defense).  Heck, I’d probably consider it 3 different aspects as you could split it into quick decisions and sound decisions.

 

I’m really curious how they’ll land on Willis, because he seems to fit the above points(?), probably doesn’t fit their idea of an immediate contributor (as a passer anyway, his running ability could accelerate his timetable obviously), but he also offers the upside and dynamism to possibly energize the fan base similar to how RGIII did.  If they end up hedging their bets by bringing in a vet (which I think they almost have to prior to the draft), Willis might be worth the gamble in their eyes.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

ProFootballNetwork has us taking Sam Howell as the #2 QB off the board at #11. I wouldn't hate this. Would really like it, actually. They have Corral going #9 as the 1st QB off the board. The off-season narrative will change and some of these guys could end up going way higher, but if WFT likes Howell as the guy and can get him at #11 ... or even trade up to #7 or 8 and get him and only have to give up a mid-round pick, that's the best case scenario.

I will say, the vibes I'm getting speak to us either A) going hard after Watson/Wilson or B ) Getting our guy in the draft. But again, think it would be smart to get a Trubisky or Mariota type as insurance either way.

 

SI also has WFT taking QB ... Malik Wills as the #2 QB off the board after the Panthers take Pickett at #6.

Edited January 14, 2022 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, skinny21 said:

Not aimed at you (the messenger), but isn’t B. two different things?  Quick twitch/release and quick decision maker (processor - reading the defense).  Heck, I’d probably consider it 3 different aspects as you could split it into quick decisions and sound decisions.

 

 

I listened to his Keim interview just now and he really harped on this even more so in that interview.  He wants a QB who once he sees his target receivers, he gets the ball out of his hands fast and gets the ball there.  I think its implied in the statement that the QB if throwing to the right target as opposed to lets say Rex Grossman who got rid of the ball fast but threw it to the other team. 

 

[mistertim]

@JamesMadisonSkinsI think if we go into this season with nobody but Trubisky/Mariota and Heinicke then quite possibly Ron's job would be in jeopardy. Not immediately, but after this coming season. That's an enormous fail. Neither of those guys are franchise QBs. Reclamation projects don't really work; those guys are both backups.

 

I don't think Dan or the fan base would be very happy with punting on a QB once again. We did it last offseason and that was bad enough. Ron and the FO have pretty much telegraphed how desperate they are for a QB, so Ron knows perfectly well that punting is almost a non-option.

[skinny21]

44 minutes ago, mistertim said:

Not sure I quite get the Mills talk. Everyone and their mother knows that Watson has said he won't play another down for the Texans. So they drafted a guy and he played pretty well for a rookie...and now they're suddenly going to turn around and try to trade the only decent QB on their roster? Makes zero sense.

Not disagreeing here, but if they really like one of the top qbs, trading Mills while his stock is high (giving them more draft ammo of course) and bringing in a solid vet is probably a consideration.  Depends on what they see as Mills’ potential I guess.  Lots to factor in though - can they find a qb needy team that will give them a good return?  Will his value lower if the Texans draft a rookie?  Does that make teams think twice about his potential (if the team he played well for is willing to get rid of him)?  Is it worth more to them to keep him as a solid/cheap backup option?

 

 

Your last post brought something else to mind.  If they do bring in a reasonable vet (like Trubisky/Mariota) and draft a guy, 1) can a rookie beat them out? 2) How do they balance a ‘win now’ approach vs wanting to get the rookie reps and speed his development to bring some excitement/hope for year 4 of the regime and beyond?  Could be a bit of a balancing act.

Edited January 14, 2022 by skinny21

[Skinsinparadise]

interesting I never thought about arm length when it comes to QBS

 

https://medium.com/@thetim_dix/nfl-draft-how-strong-is-joe-burrows-arm-b69abd897399

All else being equal from a physics perspective, every additional inch of arm length adds about an extra 2 MPH of linear velocity to a throw. And it’s interesting to note that some NFL QBs with cannons, like Josh Allen, Pat Mahomes, and Aaron Rodgers, all have arms longer than 32 inches.

 

 

hysically, Herbert is the biggest quarterback of these prospects and, like Love, that size does translate to arm strength. He’s not going to beat Josh Allen in a deep ball contest, but he’ll enter the league with a stronger arm than the QB1s of many NFL teams. Burrow, on the other hand, has good-but-not-great zip on his fastball. His arm isn’t mind-blowing, but it’s also not a concern. Burrow’s greatest asset, as we’ll see in the trigger time section, is his mental processing.

And that brings us to Tua. Of all the recent quarterback prospects I’ve analyzed, Tua’s arm is the weakest. Now, that doesn’t mean he can’t throw it deep — watch any Bama game he played in and you’ll see he throws a beautiful deep ball. His arm is more of a problem on plays like out routes and deeper curls.

Tua’s interception here isn’t all about arm strength — the ball was behind the receiver and the DB obviously read the route — but it does show where velocity matters most. For example, a ball that leaves a QB’s hand at 56 MPH will travel 25 yards (a 5-yard out to the sideline) in roughly 0.95 seconds. A ball that leaves Tua’s hand at 53.5 MPH would arrive about 0.05 seconds later. I know that doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but, in that extra time, a defensive back could travel an additional foot in coverage. Tua’s arm effectively shrinks the size of passing window, which will only be smaller against NFL defenses.