The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[NOLA2DC]

40 minutes ago, mistertim said:

@NOLA2DC I see you keep laughing at posts that are pointing out, factually, that the SEC only had 3 teams in the top 30 defenses in college football last season, compared to 6 for the ACC and 6 for the Big 10.

 

What is funny about those specific numbers?

You keep pointing to the conference whose undefeated team didn't even make the playoff and proceeded to get waxed by Georgia. SEC and Big10 are the top conferences, but we'll see what the draft shows in terms of your point. 

[Koolblue13]

[Conn]

None of that is very crazy. All very predictable possibilities lol

[The Consigliere]

7 hours ago, mac8887 said:

The bears look like they could be really good. I'm surprised nobody has suggested them trading back with us and drafting harrison while signing kirk cousins to be there starting qb. They would be instant contenders to win the nfc and would have a window of 3 years of being really serious contenders.

Yeah but, it's a little worrisome that maye is less heralded as the #2 qb in the draft now than he was at the beginning of the year or even into last year. I would've liked for him to of cemented himself as a top guy with his play, rather than it being because of his measurables and projections.

 

Herbert was a draft day riser, I wanted us to draft him so bad when he came into the league. I liked him as a prospect much more than I like maye. Maye. Maye looks like a poor man's justin herbert, he's not as big, not as strong, doesn't have the mechanics that Herbert had coming out, and maye is slower going through his reads, which really worries me after watching howell hold the ball forever this year. 

 

But if the coaches decide he is the guy, I'll trust their decision and be the guys biggest fan unless he proves pretty quickly that he is not the answer. If he grades out to the staff to be Herbert esk, you run to the podium and make the pick

Lead by a QB with a 1-5 career playoff record, and an absolute litany of prime time losses so thorough and extensive that all the networks kept the latest version of the record as guided notes for any announcer covering his latest prime time loss? It just sounds like grand mal stupidity to me to bring in Cousin's to torpedo a team on the rise just after he finished off the Vikes the year before. 

 

I get the desire to peel off the best non QB talent, but Cousins? Yikes. No thanks, take Caleb, and use their own pick to attack other issues via trade down or up. 

[Darth Tater]

Whatever QB we draft will be a bust. Do people not realize we are cursed to not have a quality QB that WE draft high (we have the record for most consecutive years using top 10 picks on a QB). Of our top 5 guys, only Baugh was higher than a second round pick. Snead did get us Sonny and RG3 did give us probably one of the greatest years a QB in Washington has ever had. Our best include a guy who was originally a 4 (albeit we got him by trading Snead), a guy who George Allen traded for (he was probably expected to be the backup), another guy who was originally a 4 by the Dolphins (we got him via a George Allen trade), a 6th rounder, and another 4th rounder. Meanwhile, of the 12 times we've used our 1 on a QB since Baugh, only Snead did us a solid by getting us Sonny while the rest were pretty much busts.

[Fred Jones]

Chicago is going to take Williams - the best QB in the draft.  No trade nonsense.  No FA nonsense.

 

History shows that a number of the other quarterbacks will fail in the NFL or be average at best.  I just hope the front office selects the one that does not.  I think a safe bet it will be Maye or Daniels.  Looking at the film there are positives and negatives in each one.  I found it interesting that Maye either is highly accurate or misses badly.  Seems like Daniels can read defenses better.  To me, that is the biggest issue in the transition to the NFL.  Consistenly reading NFL defenses and evolve when they figure you out. 

 

I hope they look BPA with the rest of their picks.  They have so many holes one could say whoever they select fills a need.

 

 

3 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Whatever QB we draft will be a bust. Do people not realize we are cursed to not have a quality QB that WE draft high (we have the record for most consecutive years using top 10 picks on a QB). Of our top 5 guys, only Baugh was higher than a second round pick. Snead did get us Sonny and RG3 did give us probably one of the greatest years a QB in Washington has ever had. Our best include a guy who was originally a 4 (albeit we got him by trading Snead), a guy who George Allen traded for (he was probably expected to be the backup), another guy who was originally a 4 by the Dolphins (we got him via a George Allen trade), a 6th rounder, and another 4th rounder. Meanwhile, of the 12 times we've used our 1 on a QB since Baugh, only Snead did us a solid by getting us Sonny while the rest were pretty much busts.

I am going to give the new ownership and new front office the benefit.  If Dan was still around I would agree.

Edited February 12 by Fred Jones

[Conn]

2 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Whatever QB we draft will be a bust. Do people not realize we are cursed to not have a quality QB that WE draft high (we have the record for most consecutive years using top 10 picks on a QB). Of our top 5 guys, only Baugh was higher than a second round pick. Snead did get us Sonny and RG3 did give us probably one of the greatest years a QB in Washington has ever had. Our best include a guy who was originally a 4 (albeit we got him by trading Snead), a guy who George Allen traded for (he was probably expected to be the backup), another guy who was originally a 4 by the Dolphins (we got him via a George Allen trade), a 6th rounder, and another 4th rounder. Meanwhile, of the 12 times we've used our 1 on a QB since Baugh, only Snead did us a solid by getting us Sonny while the rest were pretty much busts.

None of that means anything, the year is 2024. If we draft a bust, it won’t have anything to do with the past. 

[Thinking Skins]

Ok, so here's some info from my analytic and basically it is starting to back up some of the hype behind Caleb. 3rd down is supposed to be the money down so I wanted to focus on it. 

 

2023.Caleb Williams
TDS - 10
Yards - 1104
Ints - 4
comp% - 0.69
YPA - 9.5
sack % -8.6
int% - 0.009
AYPA - 9.56

2023.Drake Maye
TDS - 9
yards - 1185
ints - 6
comp% - 0.60
YPA - 9.4
sack - 7.1
int% -2.4
AYPA - 9.9

 

2023.Jayden Daniels
TDS - 9
yards - 1188
ints - 4
comp% - 0.70
YPA - 12
sack% - 9.1
int% - 3.03
AYPA - 14.35

[WashingtonRedWolves]

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Bears trade Justin Fields within NFC, also trade out of No. 1 spot but still land QB

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-bears-trade-justin-fields-within-nfc-also-trade-out-of-no-1-spot-but-still-land-qb/

 

I like this one, and don't see how it's unrealistic/why either team says no

 

Commanders get: No. 1 overall, No. 122 overall (fourth round), and a 2025 fourth-round pick
Bears get: No. 2 overall, No. 43 overall (second-round pick), No. 79 overall (third-round pick), 2025 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick 

 

Bears then take Daniels at #2. Only then I would assume NE takes Maye at #3 and MHJ to ARZ at #4 instead of what this reporter is projecting

 

 

Edited February 12 by WashingtonRedWolves

[Number 44]

CBS apparently has a low opinion of Peters as a GM.

[Redskins 2021]

1 hour ago, Koolblue13 said:

Tannehill to steelers. I thought they go bigger then that.

Edited February 12 by Redskins 2021

[Darth Tater]

5 minutes ago, Fred Jones said:

I am going to give the new ownership and new front office the benefit.  If Dan was still around I would agree.

Its just not Dan. This involves EVERY ownership and FO configurations we've had.

[illone]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Latest CBS mock draft. McCarthy goes before Daniels. Glad I am not alone:

 

 

You arent alone... In fact, I think I was one of the first to tout JJ on here.

 

Here is the question, if he keeps rising up the boards...

 

Do you take him at #2?

[Conn]

7 minutes ago, Darth Tater said:

Its just not Dan. This involves EVERY ownership and FO configurations we've had.

It literally does not matter. Burn some sage about it if you think what happened 40 years ago matters now. 

[Koolblue13]

In the 2017 NFL Draft in which they held the second overall pick, the 49ers did not study Patrick Mahomes because they believed they would be able to sign Kirk Cousins during 2018 free agency and reunite him with Kyle Shanahan. Those plans were scuttled when the Patriots and offered and traded Jimmy Garoppolo to the 49ers in October 2017.  But the one QB the 49ers did trade up to get in the 2017 draft was C.J. Beathard, whom they selected in the third round, 104th overall. Beathard eventually left San Francisco to sign with Jacksonville and, in return, the 49ers got a compensatory 2022 7th-round pick that they used on … Brock Purdy.

5 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

You arent alone... In fact, I think I was one of the first to tout JJ on here.

 

Here is the question, if he keeps rising up the boards...

 

Do you take him at #2?

It's too early to tell, but I'm really high on him too.

[Veretax]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

Latest CBS mock draft. McCarthy goes before Daniels. Glad I am not alone:

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-patriots-pass-on-qb-but-4-still-go-in-top-10-cowboys-protect-dak-prescott/

There is a lot of maleability in these mock drafts.  I've run many scnarios on several simulation sites and I have seen several things.

1. Caleb Williams is #1, but even he could fall, but likely no further than 11.  I've seen him available at 5, and 11 in some of the simulations.
2. Daniels is sometimes taken before Maye.
3. There is a lot of interest in the top WRs in this draft.  Marvin Harrison Jr is not always the top receiver, but he tends to be taken more oftten then Naborss and Odunze.  And in one site, Brian Thomas Jr who is rated 21st best prospect there, is often taken in the top 15.
4. Right now the twop 2 OTs are usually gone in the top ten.  Maybe that's not shocking.  90% of the sims I've seen Have Joe Alt #1, followed by Fashanau from Penn State
5. TE Bowers is off the board in vast majority of Sims in top 5, but I've seen him fall to around 11-15 in only 2 sims I've seen. (THere isn't a ton of TE candidates in this draft which may be making people go.
6. OT's Amarius Mims, Troy Fautanu, Tryler Guyton, and Jordan Moragen ( one site has them 22, 25, 26, 35) all could be taken mid to late first, but 1 or 2 could slide into the top of the second.
7.  The top DEs are also apparently going in the top ten: Dallas Turner, Jared, Verse and Latu from UCLA are going pretty early.   The next 3 that at one point were mocked in the mid to late first are falling out of the second in about half the drafts I've seen this week. (Demeioun Robinson, Penn St, Bralen
8.  Early on, the IOL seemed to be 2 in the first then none till the third, but the next 3 have been sliding into the early to mid second round of late.


Those are just my observations though.  No idea how realistic any of these mock draft simulators actually are. or any insight into how they decide what a team does before FA has even occured.
 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[CapsSkins]

1 hour ago, NOLA2DC said:

You keep pointing to the conference whose undefeated team didn't even make the playoff and proceeded to get waxed by Georgia. SEC and Big10 are the top conferences, but we'll see what the draft shows in terms of your point. 

 

This doesn't address the point at all. FSU got hosed on the playoff selection bc of Jordan Travis' injury and $$$ politics, and got waxed by Georgia bc none of their starters played in the non-playoff bowl game. Just blind SEC homerism

 

Edited February 12 by CapsSkins

[ThatNFLChick]

 

[MartinC]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

None of that is very crazy. All very predictable possibilities lol

Apart from the Steelers adding Tannehill. No idea why they think thats a good idea - 3 mediocre QBs rather the 2 does not seem like much of a step forward.

[clskinsfan]

24 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

You arent alone... In fact, I think I was one of the first to tout JJ on here.

 

Here is the question, if he keeps rising up the boards...

 

Do you take him at #2?

I dont like JJ over Caleb or Maye. I have those two much higher rated than any other QB's in the draft.

[NOLA2DC]

48 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

2024 NFL Mock Draft: Bears trade Justin Fields within NFC, also trade out of No. 1 spot but still land QB

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2024-nfl-mock-draft-bears-trade-justin-fields-within-nfc-also-trade-out-of-no-1-spot-but-still-land-qb/

 

I like this one, and don't see how it's unrealistic/why either team says no

 

Commanders get: No. 1 overall, No. 122 overall (fourth round), and a 2025 fourth-round pick
Bears get: No. 2 overall, No. 43 overall (second-round pick), No. 79 overall (third-round pick), 2025 first-round pick, 2026 third-round pick 

 

Bears then take Daniels at #2. Only then I would assume NE takes Maye at #3 and MHJ to ARZ at #4 instead of what this reporter is projecting

 

 

That's illogical for the Bears. If they draft a QB, it's gonna be CW, now it would be great for us but terrible for Chicago. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

No it isn't.  Not if you want to actually understand how the Chiefs built what they have and do what they do.  It wasn't just draft Patrick Mahomes and then a bunch of magical **** happens and Super Bowls come out.

 

Of course Mahomes is better than Purdy.  Their OL and secondary are also far better than SF's, their TE is better, and their coaches are better.  Stack those rosters against each other, and Kansas City is better at like 12 of the 22 starting spots.  Last night was absolutely not a case of Patrick Mahomes single handedly carrying a weak team on his back to a win over a far better opponent.

You keep saying KC's line was "far better" than SF, which is frankly a crazy take. Their Ts were a major issue all year. While no one apart from Williams is a special player for SF, the rest fit their system. Both lines were really slightly above average. Thinking wither team had any noticeable advantage is silly. If anything Thuney going down might it to the 49ers for last night.

 

Also, we saw SF rebound defensively from a shaky month. They were the better D last night, if not by a ton. They are both top-notch defenses. 

 

The biggest advantage either team had (aside from QB) was the crazy disparity in offensive weapons.

 

Yeah,  KC's secondary was a good deal better, but then SF had big advantages at LB and DLine. 

[Tyler Spiers]

2 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Wilson, Mayfield, and Love are the only ones on that list that can win a Super Bowl (assuming they have an awesome supporting cast around them). Love will definitely win at least one, Packers looked awesome this year. Cowboys should not do a new deal for Dak, they should move on from him because he's never going to win them, or anyone else, a Super Bowl. Huge mistake to give that guy another huge contract, would get a new QB if I were them. But if they do keep him, that'll be great for us!

 

As for Washington, pick the QB that's gonna play the most like Patrick Mahomes. 

[Going Commando]

17 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You keep saying KC's line was "far better" than SF, which is frankly a crazy take. Their Ts were a major issue all year. While no one apart from Williams is a special player for SF, the rest fit their system. Both lines were really slightly above average. Thinking wither team had any noticeable advantage is silly. If anything Thuney going down might it to the 49ers for last night.

 

Also, we saw SF rebound defensively from a shaky month. They were the better D last night, if not by a ton. They are both top-notch defenses. 

 

The biggest advantage either team had (aside from QB) was the crazy disparity in offensive weapons.

 

Yeah,  KC's secondary was a good deal better, but then SF had big advantages at LB and DLine. 

 

KC's OL was the best pass blocking OL in the league this year.  They were first in PBWR and their IOLs were first, second, and fourth among IOLs in PBWR, while Jawaan Taylor was 15th among OTs.  Meanwhile SF was 20th in PBWR, and they were slightly worse in the run game too.  There really is no comparison in quality between the two.  The SF line is bottom third and KC's is one of the best, and they lost their starting RG to injury too last night.  Their advantage at LBer was also diminished by losing Greenlaw, and Nick Bolton and Chris Jones are both really good and far better than any of the guys in SF's secondary.

 

Trent's great, but the rest of the SF OL is garbage, and even Trent played poorly last night.

 

And that disparity in offensive weaponry is also diminished by Deebo Samuel playing with a fractured shoulder and hamstring injury and Kittle rendered ineffective by his shoulder injury.  Those All Pro weapons were completely contained by that KC secondary to the point where McCaffrey and Juan Jennings were the only ones able to make plays.  McCaffrey and Aiyuk don't seem so much better than Kelce and Pacheco when Deebo and Kittle can't give you effective reps.

 

That gap between the teams was small last night, and that included the QB play.  The game ended up hinging upon a couple of special teams breakdowns by SF.