Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Commander -JB-]

Just now, mhd24 said:

Ryan's cap number is prohibitive for Atlanta to trade him. 

I wonder if any QB’s will be on trade market?  Could look to sign Trubisky & hope he can fully turn things around with a new start.  Continue to build on this D & hope it becomes an elite unit that can win you games with steady QB play.

[Thinking Skins]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Having said that, for all we know the FA/trade market could end up ho hum.  So like their aggressive move to get a top WR in the last off season -- they let it go after that pursuit because they weren't excited about anyone else.  I can see something like that happening this time.  But I strongly suspect they don't think Allen is a franchise QB were they are just looking for a backup.  I think they feel that can ride with Allen if they must.  But I don't get the vibe listening to Keim that Allen is Plan A. 

You may be right, but I think they are willing to go into the season with Allen as the #1. I'll do something I don't normally do and listen to the media to help form my opinion. There was somewhat of a general consensus saying that Allen was seen as the future backup QB of this team. This was around week 5-8 so we don't know how the addition of Heinicke changes that. A competition between the two of them can help the QB position, but I could see it as likely putting us somewhere closer to where we were at the beginning of 2018 rather than say where KC is. So they may want a backup plan or a more clear path to the future than these two options. 

 

That said, its also hard to see us going hard for a QB. Honestly, I see Stafford and Ryan type trades as similar to Brunell and Alex Smith deals. Sure they can provide us with some veteran leadership but I have fears that they are at points in their careers that both these guys reached where their arms, or mobility or just durability went down a lot. Look at Drew Brees right now. Look at Big Ben. 

 

But the draft brings up another set of things. We can talk about Haskins forever but look at the other QBs drafted like Tua or Jones or Lock. Maybe Lance or Fields gives an element that compares to Murray or Jackson but do we really want to go that route? Is Jones ready? Its hard to invest in a QB with that much talent around him and be sure he'll just come in and be ready to be the guy. So that makes me think its more of a draft a lower round QB. But now am I just projecting my own favoritism into this because I always like to go after the low round QBs over higher ones, but the risk in doing this is that they are just as (if not more) likely to be duds in which case we're depending on Allen / Heinicke (at least for the next season). 

 

The good thing about the low round QB theory is that both Allen / Heinicke are both low (udfas) so that gives positive correlation to Turner liking lower round guys. 

[HigSkin]

11 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

Ryan's cap number is prohibitive for Atlanta to trade him. 

I've read a few articles and comments from RR on Ryan and can tell you he's a guy Ron would love to have but like you said the dead cap hit would be crippling because they kept restructuring him and pushed all the money to out years.  Atlanta is in some serious trouble with that contract.

 

 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by HigSkin

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

You may be right, but I think they are willing to go into the season with Allen as the #1. I'll do something I don't normally do and listen to the media to help form my opinion. 

 

It's not an opinion.  Keim isn't saying what he thinks they should do.  He's saying what he's hearing -- I presume via his sources within the FO. 

 

From what I recall, you are naturally predisposed over the years to believe that players on the roster are fine as is, but just need a chance whether its a starter who hasn't shined yet or an undrafted FA who hasn't yet had enough of an opportunity in your eyes.    As you like to say you aren't a fan of trades and FAs.  And you seem to be a fan of lesser name QBs even if their success has thus far been limited around the league. 

 

So you might be believing what you want to believe?

Edited January 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Commander_N_Chief]

6 minutes ago, -JB- said:

I wonder if any QB’s will be on trade market?  Could look to sign Trubisky & hope he can fully turn things around with a new start.  Continue to build on this D & hope it becomes an elite unit that can win you games with steady QB play.

 

Trubisky would be the most depressing pick up we could get.  I'd rather Kyle Allen to Mitch, you also can't say steady qb play and include Trubisky.  If we are going for a qb that may become available that hasn't played great...I'd much rather Sam Darnold.  At least then I could talk myself into the fact he played on the Jets, no one did great under Gase or the Jets the last couple of seasons.  Mitch has had Allen Robinson, Montgomery, Patterson, Kmet/Graham, Riley Ridley and has looked extremely sub-par.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

 

The good thing about the low round QB theory is that both Allen / Heinicke are both low (udfas) so that gives positive correlation to Turner liking lower round guys. 

 

I doubt there is any coach though that has a preference for lower round guys.  I know you say you do but I think you are unique on that front.  I think they are going Zen on this.  If there is a veteran they love they chase him.  if not, they don't.  Ditto the draft. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[redskin301]

49 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

Listened to the McAfee show this morning and they swear Stafford is going to Indianapolis.  Be nice to see him here at the right cost.....maybe even a 1st this year and a second next year.

1st rounder might be a lot but I’d give too 2nds and a 4th in a heartbeat 

[Est.1974]

If the Lions pulled off the move for Schneider then it would get very interesting there. 

[Thinking Skins]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I doubt there is any coach though that has a preference for lower round guys.  I know you say you do but I think you are unique on that front.  I think they are going Zen on this.  If there is a veteran they love they chase him.  if not, they don't.  Ditto the draft. 

 

Definitely not a preference (from the coaches that is). but we clearly see that Turner / Ron have no problem playing a lower round QB, and have shown the ability to find them on more than one occasion. And going back to Norv Turner, he clearly had this ability too with the drafting of Gus and signing of Trent Green. With the coaches we had from 2000 - 2019 we got a bunch of who's in the low round QBs: Nate Sudfeld, Colt Brennan, Jordan Palmer, Gibran Hamdan, Todd Husak, Sage Rosenfelds. Those guys collectively played in 55 games. Thats both not being able to find talent and not giving it a chance.

 

Case Daniel would skew it somewhat because he has survived in this league as a backup but was never given a shot here. And of corse Kirk changes it a lot, but we can just say QBs drafted in the 5th or lower and see that this team hasn't even been able to find backups from those guys. We even gave up on Daniel. 

 

[ILikeBilly]

If Ron goes through free agency and the draft without adding a starting caliber QB, I will be extremely disappointed in our coaches and scouts.  If any QB currently on our team, from starter to practice squad is our plan A come training camp, I think our GM and coaches have failed us.

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Definitely not a preference (from the coaches that is). but we clearly see that Turner / Ron have no problem playing a lower round QB, and have shown the ability to find them on more than one occasion. And going back to Norv Turner, he clearly had this ability too with the drafting of Gus and signing of Trent Green. With the coaches we had from 2000 - 2019 we got a bunch of who's in the low round QBs: Nate Sudfeld, Colt Brennan, Jordan Palmer, Gibran Hamdan, Todd Husak, Sage Rosenfelds. Those guys collectively played in 55 games. Thats both not being able to find talent and not giving it a chance.

 

Case Daniel would skew it somewhat because he has survived in this league as a backup but was never given a shot here. And of corse Kirk changes it a lot, but we can just say QBs drafted in the 5th or lower and see that this team hasn't even been able to find backups from those guys. We even gave up on Daniel. 

 

 

 

It's hard for me to forget that you arguably have the most quirky love for low round players and undrafted FAs on the board by a mile.  The fact that you can still talk up the Case Keenum deal is very you. 😀    I recall a post not that long ago where you more or less still thought Jason Campbell was done wrong and might have been the right guy.  And you defended Haskins almost right to the end, etc.    

 

My point is you seem to love the underdog.  The dudes that you think are underappreciated and who are kicked when they are down.  I get it.   And none of this is a shot.  I get your point of view.  You sort of have a Rudy thought process to personnel at times.   You've argued against the fact whether it matters whether you pick QBs high in the draft or lower.  You are just as likely to get the next Russell Wilson in the third than you will strike big with Justin Fields with the 2nd pick of the draft?  Who cares about the stats on that considering exceptions exist and so why not us scoring and being among the exceptions on that front?   So I do think (correct me if I am wrong) if it were left up to you, you'd be more than happy (probably even excited by) to run with Heinicke, K. Allen and lets say a 6th rounder?

 

So I am wondering if you are projecting their next move accordingly?  I just get a strong vibe from Keim in particular who I trust that QB is high on their to do list this off season and I don't get the impression that this means some flier Qb in the 5th round.  But i do agree with part of your point.   I do think if the right player/deal doesn't come, they wouldn't be crying to come at the season with Kyle Allen.  I don't think they'd be willing to give up draft capital and or big money for a QB they don't love.  So I don't think they will force something. 

 

My take/guess is they approach the spot almost exactly like they did WR/TE last year.  They swing hard for a big target if they like a lot said target (this is where I gather we disagree) but if they miss said target they don't just shoot for someone just to do it.  And like they did TE, they might be willing to settle for a QB who isn't their top target if they get said QB at a bargain ala what they did with Logan Thomas. 

Edited January 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Stafford isn't mobile. Neither is Matt Ryan. I was of the understanding that Rivera wanted guys that could move around a bit. Smith is an absolute statue and a liability because of that. Stafford and Ryan are also on the wrong side of 35. Sure QBs last a bit longer these days, but I would much rather go younger in FA and use the draft or even the 2022 to better position ourselves at QB.

 

Mariota and Darnold are younger and could have "Tannehill" type turnarounds with the right system and players around them, but I wouldn't sign them and bank on them being our long term solutions. I still think you go find that in the draft. Or over multiple drafts.

 

Let's say you sign someone like Marcus Mariota (let's assume the Raiders cut bait on him due to cap issues). You spend the (let's say #19 now) pick on Mac Jones or Trey Lance if he falls. Your QB room + Kyle Allen and/or Heineke is in good shape. My assumption is it'll be Allen because Heikene was still a FA up until a few weeks ago. He could perform okay now, but he's at best a QB3 for you going forward, and Allen is obviously the preference for this staff as he was targeted to be a part of the team way before Heineke. (Flashes of Josh Johnson come to mind ... late season "boost" from him had people pnciling him in as a QB2 and we didn't bring him back and had no interest to).

 

Anyway, if Jones or Lance aren't your guy (or available) when you pick in R1 then I consider going the mid-round approach. Get a 2nd, 3rd or 4th round guy to come in and kick the tires on him. Go the oldPackers route. Roll with Mariota and put the rookie as your QB3 with little pressure to be the franchise guy. Then revisit QB in the 2022 draft if you get in position to draft one early, otherwise keep kicking the tires on the mid-round guy until you find your guy, or luck into picking high enough one year to get a bonifide prospect.

 

So I would get someone you can start with confidence via FA and hope you are in position to get Jones or Lance in R1, and if they arent a fit or arent available, you don't panic. Just  add someone later with upside and plan to head into 2022 off-season looking for the future ... unless of course the person you got (Mariota, Carr, Darnold, etc.) ends up having a Tannaehill rejuvenation and you write off QB for the longterm.

[Skinsinparadise]

5. WASHINGTON FOOTBALL TEAM

Projected 2021 Cap Space: $47.2 million (5th)

Key Free Agents: RG Brandon Scherff, CB Ronald Darby, Edge Ryan Kerrigan, LB Reuben Foster

Blue-Chip Players: Edge Chase Young, WR Terry McLaurin, DI Jonathan Allen

Washington’s quick rebound after Alex Smith‘s injury left them in cap hell should be applauded. They’ve drafted very well of late and could have players on their rookie contracts, such as edge defender Montez Sweat and running back Antonio Gibson, joining that blue-chip tier soon enough. That’s why they have so much projected cap space in 2021 — and can create a lot more if they part ways with Smith — yet still made the playoffs.

The problem is that with pick No. 19 at best in 2021, Washington falls squarely in the purgatory of desperately needing a quarterback yet having a roster that’s too good to end up where you can find one in the draft. While I’m all for taking as many shots on the position as possible, picking in the teens — as they did with Dwayne Haskins — means all the quarterback talent that gets there has been thoroughly picked through.

I’d expect the team's next general manager to be a serious player in the free agent market for a quarterback.

 

 

 

[JoggingGod]

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Stafford isn't mobile.

Wrong

 

7 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Stafford is also on the wrong side of 35

Wrong again

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Stafford isn't mobile. Neither is Matt Ryan. I was of the understanding that Rivera wanted guys that could move around a bit. Smith is an absolute statue and a liability because of that. Stafford and Ryan are also on the wrong side of 35. Sure QBs last a bit longer these days, but I would much rather go younger in FA and use the draft or even the 2022 to better position ourselves at QB.

 

Stafford is 32 now and will be 33 next season.   Stafford can move around a bit albeit he isn't fast.  He has actually rushed over 200 yards before.  He's often at least over 100.   I wouldn't say he's very mobile but he can move around the pocket pretty well.   

Edited January 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[JamesMadisonSkins]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Stafford is 32 now and will be 33 next season.   Stafford can move around a bit albeit he isn't fast.  He has actually rushed over 200 yards before.  He's often at least over 100.   I wouldn't say he's very mobile but he can move around the pocket pretty well.   

 

Weird. I stand very corrected. Idk why I was thinking he was in Matt Ryan territory as far as age goes.

[Thinking Skins]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

It's hard for me to forget that you arguably have the most quirky love for low round players and undrafted FAs on the board by a mile.  The fact that you can still talk up the Case Keenum deal is very you. 😀    I recall a post not that long ago where you more or less still thought Jason Campbell was done wrong and might have been the right guy.  And you defended Haskins almost right to the end, etc.    

 

My point is you seem to love the underdog.  The dudes that you think are underappreciated and who are kicked when they are down.  I get it.   And none of this is a shot.  I get your point of view.  You sort of have a Rudy thought process to personnel at times.   You've argued against the fact whether it matters whether you pick QBs high in the draft or lower.  You are just as likely to get the next Russell Wilson in the third than you will strike big with Justin Fields with the 2nd pick of the draft?  Who cares about the stats on that considering exceptions exist and so why not us scoring and being among the exceptions on that front?   So I do think (correct me if I am wrong) if it were left up to you, you'd be more than happy (probably even excited by) to run with Heinicke, K. Allen and lets say a 6th rounder?

Its really sad because I didn't want to draft Campbell or Haskins (not in favor of drafting first round QBs). But in the Campbell draft when Rogers was supposed to go #1 overall (between him and Smith) and he dropped, I wanted him at 6 (over Carlos) but wasn't mad we didn't get him. But then when he dropped to 24, I REALLY wanted him there because I thought it was a value signing and I thought the rumors of Gibbs trading up was going to be for him but it wasn't. I had never heard of Campbell before the draft and didn't want a QB (didn't we still have Ramsey? I was probably still pulling for him). 

 

Same goes for Haskins. I didn't want a QB, thought we should go after a DE like Sweat who just had all the measureables and the freakish nature that I wanted. But I REALLY didn't want to trade up for Haskins. When we got him at 15, I was saying well its not the worse thing. And the fact that I was seeing articles saying that he was the second best QB in the draft and had the highest ceiling and a bunch of other stuff, I got behind it. But before the draft I was looking at lower round guys for this same reason (not anything about Haskins himself), its just too much of a risk and so many unknowns. 

 

Honestly, I look at first rounders like this. Who are the "generational talents"? We saw that in 2004 with Sean Taylor, but if you remember there was a debate that year between Taylor and Kellen Winslow - both being called generational talents. One lived up to it and one did not. In 207, there was a guy named Laron Landry, who was compared to Sean Taylor and said to be this great safety. I didn't want him (I wanted Amobi Okoye because I thought we needed DL help more). Its clear that we should have taken AP that year because he was the one who lived up to the generational talent label (even though we had CP who was getting older). I remember posting a thread asking a question "what if we draft RB/AP in the first round" and getting a bunch of angry responses to that. 

 

But even with the rookie wage scale, I'm still hesitant to trust these high draft picks as being anything more than guys. Even if they're good, my question is always how much better is the top 10 guy vs the guy that went in the second or the third? But it takes more scouting and understanding of things and honestly luck in a lot of this. In 2015 we all wanted Leonard Williams but it seemed like an impossible thing because he was sure to go #2 overall. Then he was there at #5 but we took a guard. In 2017, nobody thought Jon Allen would be there at 17 and we all thought his dropping to us would totally change our defense. But he has performed at about where he was drafted. Not the impact that Chase Young has had but better than a lot of the linemen we had drafted in previous drafts. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[heyholetsgogrant]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

It's not an opinion.  Keim isn't saying what he thinks they should do.  He's saying what he's hearing -- I presume via his sources within the FO. 

 

From what I recall, you are naturally predisposed over the years to believe that players on the roster are fine as is, but just need a chance whether its a starter who hasn't shined yet or an undrafted FA who hasn't yet had enough of an opportunity in your eyes.    As you like to say you aren't a fan of trades and FAs.  And you seem to be a fan of lesser name QBs even if their success has thus far been limited around the league. 

 

So you might be believing what you want to believe?

I’m okay with Allen possibly starting next season;  He’s better than a hobbled Smith, decent in the pocket, and made some good throws (the one he had one in the back of end zone he had was phenomenal). We don’t need elite QB play. Atlanta, Minnesota, Detroit, etc really haven’t gotten anywhere with their franchise QB’s.  Why?  Well, their deals hamstring their organizations with colossal salaries.  I’m not saying I wouldn’t take a Ryan or Stafford, but at what cost?  
 

30 minutes ago, JoggingGod said:

Wrong

 

Wrong again

He’s not a mobile QB...he’s just not.  He’s one of the most sacked QB’s in the league (He’s good in the pocket). Okay, he’s 33 next season, not 35, but he’s not a QB in his 20’s.  He’s gotten hammered in Detroit and those hits add up.

 

 

Edited January 5, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[heyholetsgogrant]

Deleted.

Edited January 5, 2021 by heyholetsgogrant

[Skinsinparadise]

35 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

 

Honestly, I look at first rounders like this. Who are the "generational talents"? We saw that in 2004 with Sean Taylor, but if you remember there was a debate that year between Taylor and Kellen Winslow - both being called generational talents. One lived up to it and one did not. In 207, there was a guy named Laron Landry, who was compared to Sean Taylor and said to be this great safety. I didn't want him (I wanted Amobi Okoye because I thought we needed DL help more). Its clear that we should have taken AP that year because he was the one who lived up to the generational talent label (even though we had CP who was getting older). I remember posting a thread asking a question "what if we draft RB/AP in the first round" and getting a bunch of angry responses to that. 

 

But even with the rookie wage scale, I'm still hesitant to trust these high draft picks as being anything more than guys. Even if they're good, my question is always how much better is the top 10 guy vs the guy that went in the second or the third? But it takes more scouting and understanding of things and honestly luck in a lot of this. In 2015 we all wanted Leonard Williams but it seemed like an impossible thing because he was sure to go #2 overall. Then he was there at #5 but we took a guard. In 2017, nobody thought Jon Allen would be there at 17 and we all thought his dropping to us would totally change our defense. But he has performed at about where he was drafted. Not the impact that Chase Young has had but better than a lot of the linemen we had drafted in previous drafts. 

 

I don't feel like going deep in this rabbit hole again.  But I'll sum up my difference with you this way.

 

A.  There are no guarantees anywhere in the draft but that doesn't prove any point.  

 

B.  Someone can take any player to prove any point they want because you got 250 plus players in any draft so you can find a narrartive to say anything with an example to back it up.  The odds that there are more gems with 240 players then just the top10?  yeah, duh.  But that's just about third grade level math.  And the option is never a team gets a top 10 pick versus the other teams getting the next 240 players in the draft.  So......

 

C.  If you look at the statisitical rate of success per round.  And the numbers speak for itself.  I've posted those numbers many times.  

 

D.  The idea of a 7th rounder or some undrafted FA can be All Pros because examples of that exist doesn't prove you are more likely to find one late in the draft versus early.  The mindset of focus on the exceptions over the rules  and why not me? -- is the mindset that has helped Casinos make billions.  

 

28 minutes ago, heyholetsgogrant said:

I’m okay with Allen possibly starting next season;  He’s better than a hobbled Smith, decent in the pocket, and made some good throws (the one he had one in the back of end zone he had was phenomenal). We don’t need elite QB play. Atlanta, Minnesota, Detroit, etc really haven’t gotten anywhere with their franchise QB’s.  Why?  Well, their deals hamstring their organizations with colossal salaries.  I’m not saying I wouldn’t take a Ryan or Stafford, but at what cost?  

 

Who is arguing that we need an elite Qb?  and even if that's who we'd want how the heck are we getting that dude?

 

As for Stafford (I am not that much a Ryan guy) why bemoan the price before we know whether he's on the market and what the price is?  

 

My guess is Stafford doesn't hit the market.  So instead we will be arguing something closer to  T.  Taylor versus Brissett.  

Edited January 5, 2021 by Skinsinparadise

[Blanka]

 

[Skinsinparadise]

for those who want Darnold, me not among them

 

 

 

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

for those who want Darnold, me not among them

 

 

 

I just don’t see what Darnold offers that Kyle Allen doesn’t and he’s already here, familiar and only cost a 5th.

 

Pass.

[RWJ]

Allen, TH, and a drafted QB is the way we go in 2021.  My thought is Mac Jones.  A lot of time rolls by and we'll start getting some info though.