Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[mhd24]

 

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

ESPN article about possible QB scenarios, here was the WFT part

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/insider/story/_/id/30587969/2021-offseason-nfl-quarterback-dominoes-jets-keep-sam-darnold-carson-wentz-dak-prescott-get-traded

 

Washington signs QB Cam Newton to a one-year, $7.5 million deal.

Newton hasn't had an incredible season with the Patriots, as the former MVP ranks 29th in the league in Total QBR. It's also fair to note that he has been playing with the worst group of weapons in football and was waylaid for several weeks by the coronavirus, which dragged down his numbers. Crucially, Newton has made it through the full season without getting injured, which might have seemed impossible after his 2018 and 2019 campaigns.

Washington might be rebuilding at quarterback after this season, and Ron Rivera saw how far a healthy Newton can take a team in years past. This deal assumes that Washington moves on from Alex Smith, but it wouldn't preclude the team from bringing somebody in to compete with Newton.

 

 

Washington trades a third-round pick to the Jets for QB Sam Darnold.

With the Jets planning to use the second overall pick on a quarterback, they'll end up taking the best available offer for their previous starter. Darnold hasn't looked great at any point in 2020, with only a throw or two per game hinting at his possible upside. Washington might be ready to move on from 2019 first-round pick Dwayne Haskins after he was spotted at a club after Sunday's loss to the Seahawks, and while Alex Smith's comeback story is incredible, the veteran's $18.8 million base salary in 2021 is unguaranteed.

Washington could approach the Darnold addition in a number of ways. It could decline Darnold's fifth-year option for 2022 and let the No. 3 pick in the 2018 draft play out the final year of his rookie deal, although team owner Daniel Snyder might not be particularly excited about using the franchise tag on a quarterback after the Kirk Cousins fiasco.

The team could also pick up that option and essentially commit to Darnold as its starter in 2021 and 2022. Alternately, it could try to negotiate a new contract with Darnold, one that would likely guarantee him more money in 2021 while also allowing the organization to get out of the deal after this upcoming season.

Cam looks done.  I'd rather roll with Kyle Allen, who'd be dirt cheap as an exclusive rights FA.  Darnold for a 3rd, I could live with if the FO thought highly of him.

[Skinsinparadise]

19 minutes ago, mhd24 said:

 

Cam looks done.  I'd rather roll with Kyle Allen, who'd be dirt cheap as an exclusive rights FA.  Darnold for a 3rd, I could live with if the FO thought highly of him.

 

Ditto on all three points.  None of which would be my ideal scenario

[Koolblue13]

Alex Smith please give us one more year of constant winning!

[Skinsinparadise]

14 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

Alex Smith please give us one more year of constant winning!

 

Please get healthy ASAP, If I am going to be talked into Alex being a SB QB we got a running sample right now, please prove me wrong Alex. 😀

 

 

Add all of that up, and Washington needs a QB. Bad. 

Ron Rivera has quickly built a defense that can compete with the best units across the league. The defense is young, but things change quickly in the NFL. Washington can't wait around for a quarterback, this team needs somebody that can play right away. That doesn't exclude a rookie passer, guys are coming into the league ready to hit the ground running. Look at Justin Herbert. 

But that doesn't mean Washington can just stick with Haskins and Smith. 

It's go time in Washington, certainly in 2021, and this team needs a franchise passer. Santa already knows. 

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

I'm still somewhat mystified by people who (seem to) think Alex is the answer at QB. He's an amazing feel good story but he's an extremely average QB who is a pretty good game manager. People say he "just wins!" but how many games can you honestly point to and say "Yep, Alex Smith was one of the main reasons we won that game"? 

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he's certainly not a guy you can count on to go out and put the team on his back and throw a bunch of TDs if you're in a shootout. That's the kind of guy you might be able to sneak into the playoffs with if you have a good defense and a good running game. But you're not going to be a perennial playoff team with him, and I certainly don't think he's a guy who's going to get you a SB win unless you have an absolutely dominant defense and an excellent surrounding cast on offense.

[SweatSuit]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

I'm still somewhat mystified by people who (seem to) think Alex is the answer at QB. He's an amazing feel good story but he's an extremely average QB who is a pretty good game manager. People say he "just wins!" but how many games can you honestly point to and say "Yep, Alex Smith was one of the main reasons we won that game"? 

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he's certainly not a guy you can count on to go out and put the team on his back and throw a bunch of TDs if you're in a shootout. That's the kind of guy you might be able to sneak into the playoffs with if you have a good defense and a good running game. But you're not going to be a perennial playoff team with him, and I certainly don't think he's a guy who's going to get you a SB win unless you have an absolutely dominant defense and an excellent surrounding cast on offense.

I think your last sentence answers the first part of your post. We are building a dominant defense that won’t ever allow a shootout to occur, so having a game manager like Smith is really all we need. I do agree Smith at his age and with the injury isn’t someone we can count on at this stage. Just saying that we are in a unique situation where we’ve built a talented enough defense that we don’t need someone who can go toe to toe in a shootout for the most part. You add a Stafford or a guy of his caliber we pretty quickly become SB contenders. A game manager we still might get there though. 

[Skinsinparadise]

6 hours ago, mistertim said:

I'm still somewhat mystified by people who (seem to) think Alex is the answer at QB. He's an amazing feel good story but he's an extremely average QB who is a pretty good game manager. People say he "just wins!" but how many games can you honestly point to and say "Yep, Alex Smith was one of the main reasons we won that game"? 

 

Again, I'm not saying he's a bad QB. But he's certainly not a guy you can count on to go out and put the team on his back and throw a bunch of TDs if you're in a shootout. That's the kind of guy you might be able to sneak into the playoffs with if you have a good defense and a good running game. But you're not going to be a perennial playoff team with him, and I certainly don't think he's a guy who's going to get you a SB win unless you have an absolutely dominant defense and an excellent surrounding cast on offense.

 

 I think the drill with Alex is he is perhaps the best game manager the league has ever had.  He's Trent Dilfer on steroids.  He's rarely going to win the game for you.  But if other cylinders are firing for the club, they are likely going to win because Alex won't spoil the party.  And that skill is underrated because plenty of QBs are spoil the party types.   If the argument is presented that way -- its right on IMO. 

 

The #1 reason why I want to upgrade from Alex this off season are age/durability concerns.  The #2 reason is this:  there are really good QBs in this league who are the prime reason why they win.  They lead the dance versus support the dance.  And if we go up in the playoffs against name that hot QB and our defense isn't on fire that day we probably lose.   Our defense this season has been really good but not always against strong offenses.   It's at least a wildcard that we'd shut down Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs or Mahomes in the SB, etc. 

 

To use a war metaphor.  We can win with a strong navy with the air force not screwing it up for the navy.  But imagine a juggeraut navy and air force at the same time? It happens.  Some counter that argument with citing the rare times where the navy won the battle without much air force.  But why major in the rare sceanrios?  Lets go set up an army that's a juggernaut versus hoping we join the club of outliers.  It might be doable.  This might be a rare window.  I didn't feel that same way in 2018 about the roster. 

 

I've changed my mind on issues here and there.  I've gotten some really good ones right like picking Ionnaidis in the 5th, loving Gibson and McLaurin before the draft.  I've gotten some bad ones wrong like wanting Richardson in FA and liking the Doctson pick.  And plenty more I got right in the mix and plenty more I got wrong.  Parcells likes to say if professionals get 50% of their decisions right, they are really good at their jobs.   My point is we aren't professionals.  So of course we will get some wrong.   So my mind is open regardless of what I think about things today. 

 

To that point, nothing would make me happier than Alex proving me wrong and going out and winning in the playoffs.  That would be super cool.   I think for almost all of us, our top thing isn't predicting the future correctly for every player on this roster but winning games.   That goes triple in the playoffs assuming we make it there. 

 

I could ride the Alex in 2021 bandwagon much easier if I had faith in his health but I don't.  He's also almost 25 million against the cap.  But like I've been saying its hard to predict now how the QB market is going to shake out, so it should be a wild and interesting off season. 

 

For me even with his low QBR, etc as its mentioned below.  I'd trust Alex on this roster over K. Allen or Haskins by a mile.  I know some say K Allen played better.  Maybe so but his numbers were atrocious in Carolina.  So I am not trusting him just yet.  I still think Alex's game against the Lions was the best performance by any QB  we had this season even though we lost.   Statisitically speaking the Lions game was a career game for Alex in a number of categories let alone the best game he played for us. 

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/30593552/nfl-week-16-game-picks-schedule-guide-playoff-scenarios-fantasy-football-tips-odds-injuries-more

Stat to know: Washington is 4-1 with Smith as the starting quarterback, even though he has posted a 35.5 Total QBR, worst among 41 players with 100 passes this season. Smith has averaged a league-low 5.4 air yards per attempt.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, SweatSuit said:

I think your last sentence answers the first part of your post. We are building a dominant defense that won’t ever allow a shootout to occur, so having a game manager like Smith is really all we need. I do agree Smith at his age and with the injury isn’t someone we can count on at this stage. Just saying that we are in a unique situation where we’ve built a talented enough defense that we don’t need someone who can go toe to toe in a shootout for the most part. You add a Stafford or a guy of his caliber we pretty quickly become SB contenders. A game manager we still might get there though. 

 

I get that. But for me the goal would be to build a team that's a perennial contender not a team that, if all the conditions are just right, might be able to fall forwards into the playoffs or even get to a SB one year. And the teams that are perennial contenders to be in the playoffs and potentially get to the SB all have good franchise QBs.

 

We've seen multiple situations where an absolutely dominant defense only lasts for a certain (usually short) period of time, mostly because a team usually just can't afford to keep all of the pieces there, because of injuries, all sorts of things. I think we can all admit that QB is the one single position that can, by itself, most directly affect a whole NFL team.

 

So honestly, our situation isn't all that unique IMO. Plenty of teams have had very good defenses but still have been overall mediocre because they didn't have a top notch QB. Eventually you're going to have shootout games for one reason or another, even with a very good defense. If your offense is anemic without a QB who can make things happen then you basically have no chance in those games.

[Thinking Skins]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

get that. But for me the goal would be to build a team that's a perennial contender not a team that, if all the conditions are just right, might be able to fall forwards into the playoffs or even get to a SB one year. And the teams that are perennial contenders to be in the playoffs and potentially get to the SB all have good franchise QBs

Let's be real. If not for the division being complete and utter crap, this conversation wouldn't even be happening. We are having it because everything fell into place for us. How long will Philly, NY and Dallas be this bad? 

 

We have a really good defense but I wouldn't call it elite. We have a good front four that can be dominant and take over games and hide our weaknesses at lb and in the secondary. But if they have a bad day or make too many critical mistakes like offsides or illegal hits or face mask, then they'll expose this team. Much as people want to talk about that Detroit game remember that Chase had the penalty that cost us. 

 

I love Alex and have since we got him. I think he's a good enough QB but I'd like to be grooming a young guy behind him, like Darnold or Minshew or a handful of other guys with potential. But I don't think we are in a SB window, i just think this season is lightning in a bottle. 

[SweatSuit]

2 hours ago, mistertim said:

 

I get that. But for me the goal would be to build a team that's a perennial contender not a team that, if all the conditions are just right, might be able to fall forwards into the playoffs or even get to a SB one year. And the teams that are perennial contenders to be in the playoffs and potentially get to the SB all have good franchise QBs.

 

We've seen multiple situations where an absolutely dominant defense only lasts for a certain (usually short) period of time, mostly because a team usually just can't afford to keep all of the pieces there, because of injuries, all sorts of things. I think we can all admit that QB is the one single position that can, by itself, most directly affect a whole NFL team.

 

So honestly, our situation isn't all that unique IMO. Plenty of teams have had very good defenses but still have been overall mediocre because they didn't have a top notch QB. Eventually you're going to have shootout games for one reason or another, even with a very good defense. If your offense is anemic without a QB who can make things happen then you basically have no chance in those games.

Yeah you make some good points to be sure, QB is the piece you can count on to keep you contending year after year if you find the right guy. Not at all disagreeing with that. The thing that IS unique though is that we have these guys under team control at cap friendly costs for 2-3 years, so there’s a little window that’s about to open where we could take a couple swings at a super bowl and not just one and done. And then once those guys’ contracts are up ideally at that point we have found a QB on a rookie contract ready to step in. Not going to be possible to pay a QB of that caliber AND Mclaurin, Sweat, Young, Payne, Allen, etc. It’s a good problem to have though.

[Thinking Skins]

 

[Thinking Skins]

 

[ananoman]

On 12/25/2020 at 3:43 PM, Thinking Skins said:

Let's be real. If not for the division being complete and utter crap, this conversation wouldn't even be happening. We are having it because everything fell into place for us. How long will Philly, NY and Dallas be this bad? 

 

We have a really good defense but I wouldn't call it elite. We have a good front four that can be dominant and take over games and hide our weaknesses at lb and in the secondary. But if they have a bad day or make too many critical mistakes like offsides or illegal hits or face mask, then they'll expose this team. Much as people want to talk about that Detroit game remember that Chase had the penalty that cost us. 

 

I love Alex and have since we got him. I think he's a good enough QB but I'd like to be grooming a young guy behind him, like Darnold or Minshew or a handful of other guys with potential. But I don't think we are in a SB window, i just think this season is lightning in a bottle. 

Philly and Dallas are going to be in a bind from a salary cap standpoint which will hamper them for at least next season.  So there is definitely a window open for WFT

[Malapropismic Depository]

Who wants Fitzpatrick this offseason, especially after what he did to the Raiders tonight ?

 

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, Malapropismic Depository said:

Who wants Fitzpatrick this offseason, especially after what he did to the Raiders tonight ?

 

 

Only if that also means we have Trey Lance and Allen Robinson!

[method man]

Out of the Tier 2/3 options, I am on the record for wanting Fitz. He has figured something out and taken it to another level in TB/Miami. He’s been making fewer mistakes and he has been balling with a terrible group of skill position players 

[KDawg]

6 hours ago, method man said:

Out of the Tier 2/3 options, I am on the record for wanting Fitz. He has figured something out and taken it to another level in TB/Miami. He’s been making fewer mistakes and he has been balling with a terrible group of skill position players 

Fitz is my primary FA QB target. Lance my draft target (well, Fields, too. But that’s not happening for any reasonable amount). I don’t have a trade target at the moment. 

[KDawg]

Ryan still seems to have some legs under him. Haven’t looked into his cap hit so that could completely negate the rest of what I have to say: I am genuinely curious on what he would cost asset wise.

 

He’s older. So he couldn’t cost that much. If Atlanta wants to move on I wonder what the price would be for a 1-2 year rental type trade. 
 

He’d be a fantastic stop gap for a 3rd or below, though I have a feeling that is optimistic in thought and Atlanta would want much more.

 

I also think Atlanta is more likely to move on from him.

 

But IF he could be had for low assets and his contract isn’t a major cap hit he’d be perfect to pair with a rookie and Kyle Allen.

[Renegade7]

All I can think about watching this game is how badly we need a qb. This is not a drill.

[Est.1974]

Rivera will want a veteran. I think it’ll be Cam at this stage. Honestly think it will be. Hopefully offset by drafting Lance.

[88Comrade2000]

If Alex wants to come back, I'd let him but I wouldn't promise him the starting job.  He probably can't last a whole season; so we should nudge him to retirement.  

 

Get one of those younger QBS that needs a second chance.  Get a Vet as their backup and Kyle Allen as third string.

[CapsSkins]

9 hours ago, KDawg said:

Ryan still seems to have some legs under him. Haven’t looked into his cap hit so that could completely negate the rest of what I have to say: I am genuinely curious on what he would cost asset wise.

 

He’s older. So he couldn’t cost that much. If Atlanta wants to move on I wonder what the price would be for a 1-2 year rental type trade. 
 

He’d be a fantastic stop gap for a 3rd or below, though I have a feeling that is optimistic in thought and Atlanta would want much more.

 

I also think Atlanta is more likely to move on from him.

 

But IF he could be had for low assets and his contract isn’t a major cap hit he’d be perfect to pair with a rookie and Kyle Allen.

 

Ryan has a $41M cap hit next season, but IDK what all gets counted in a trade scenario w/ the signing bonuses and all that ****. I'm used to hockey which is much simpler in that regard.

[Skinsinparadise]

QB issues solved 😀

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

15 hours ago, KDawg said:

Ryan still seems to have some legs under him. Haven’t looked into his cap hit so that could completely negate the rest of what I have to say: I am genuinely curious on what he would cost asset wise.

 

He’s older. So he couldn’t cost that much. If Atlanta wants to move on I wonder what the price would be for a 1-2 year rental type trade. 
 

He’d be a fantastic stop gap for a 3rd or below, though I have a feeling that is optimistic in thought and Atlanta would want much more.

 

I also think Atlanta is more likely to move on from him.

 

But IF he could be had for low assets and his contract isn’t a major cap hit he’d be perfect to pair with a rookie and Kyle Allen.

 

If my math is right Ryan would cost over 31 million give or take against the cap in 2021 and also 31 million in 2022.  So you'd save about 20 million on the cap with Stafford in the next two years who IMO is the better get and cheaper if he hits the market.  The Lions are drafting high now so it might not be as crazy that it happens but I'd still bet against it. 

 

As for the Falcons, I'd want to unload Ryan, he has plenty of base salary so it would save against their cap and he's 36.  Ryan IMO is much closer to what some people think Stafford is which is old and expensive.   I'd be ok with it but don't love it as for Ryan.

 

I am ok with Fitzpatrick among the FA options.  He's almost a reverse mirror image of Alex.  Like Alex, teammates love him and seem to respond to him.  Like Alex, he has limited arm strength but just finds a way to win enough regardless. Fitzpatrick though is daring and his critics say too much so.  Alex is conservative and his critics say too much so.  But there are intangibles about both that exceed the surface. He's going to be I believe 39.

 

If we lose to the Eagles on Sunday, we are back in more reasonable range IMO to trade up much more cheaply and land one of the top QBs.  If that happens I am back about the draft for QB which is where I was at originally until it looked like we were drafting at 19 or later. 

 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

Atlanta drafting 3 obviously increases the chances.  Considering the steep cap hit (if I am correct) and his age, I presume they wouldn't get a kings ransom for him.