Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Est.1974]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Not really the same.  If he's the dude his big money is coming starting the following season.  With a rookie you got him 4 years cheap.  But agree on the age.  Also like I've been saying beggars can't be choosers.  We might not have easy optiions in the draft or FA/trade market.  So to me it all depends. 

Yeah Darnold is a one year rental before you have to exercise that very expensive 5th year option, agree a contract, or he hits FA...so the trade price will reflect that, plus on a one year rentals like that he needs to start week one. Risky.

[KDawg]

17 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

@KDawg I am a fan of Fields but you are an even bigger fan of the dude.  Do you think last weeks performance makes him drop?  Most draft geek think not but some do.  Some say Wilson has surpassed Fields on some boards according to their sources albeit that could be BS for all we know and or purposeful misinformation.  

 

I'd guess he will recover from it if he has a bounce back game. 

 

 

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2923469-matt-millers-scouting-notebook-latest-2021-nfl-mock-draft-and-more

The Scout's Report

—Justin Fields' draft stock is one of the hottest topics around the league. The Ohio State quarterback has jaw-dropping physical abilities, but against the best defenses he's faced, issues with decision-making and processing speed have been notable concerns. Fields' five interceptions against Indiana (one wasn't on him) and Northwestern will concern scouts. Is he trying to do too much? Is he seeing the field? Given the decline of Carson Wentz this year with similar issues, teams must thoroughly vet Fields' day-one ability and his aptitude for improvement. Fans shouldn't anoint or automatically insert Fields as the No. 2 quarterback in this class. Not yet, at least.

 

I said 30 only if he balls -- great season.   From what I recall Jimmy G got overpaid from just a hot period that wasn't even a full season. 

It may make him fall a little. He fell for me to below Lawrence but I had him a touch higher because I think his legs make him incredibly dynamic.

 

But he’s still the second QB in my opinion and at worst third. If he falls further than that I’d be absolutely shocked.

 

It really depends on his first playoff game. If he has a great one everyone will forgotten the last one. If it’s a continuation of the NW game he could fall well below Wilson.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, KDawg said:

It may make him fall a little. He fell for me to below Lawrence but I had him a touch higher because I think his legs make him incredibly dynamic.

 

But he’s still the second QB in my opinion and at worst third. If he falls further than that I’d be absolutely shocked.

 

It really depends on his first playoff game. If he has a great one everyone will forgotten the last one. If it’s a continuation of the NW game he could fall well below Wilson.

 

My favorite plan would be to trade for Fields or Wilson but I am guessing the price would be prohibitive. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My favorite plan would be to trade for Fields or Wilson but I am guessing the price would be prohibitive. 

I think I’d pay the price. QB is so important. I think we should keep shooting our shot, we should eventually hit on one. It’s either that or trade for Stafford/Ryan if possible. Either way you gotta pay to play. This D could be Absolutely great with an effective offense. I’d take these two scenarios over Fitzmagic, Mariota, or Winston at first glance. 

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

My favorite plan would be to trade for Fields or Wilson but I am guessing the price would be prohibitive. 

We’re too far back now. If we were top 5 there was an outside chance. 

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I think I’d pay the price. QB is so important. I think we should keep shooting our shot, we should eventually hit on one. It’s either that or trade for Stafford/Ryan if possible. Either way you gotta pay to play. This D could be Absolutely great with an effective offense. I’d take these two scenarios over Fitzmagic, Mariota, or Winston at first glance. 

 

I think you would need their stock to drop some, hence my discussion about Fields.  Otherwise if we are trading up from lets say 20 to 3, you are likely giving up something like two #1s and two #2s.   

Edited December 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think you would need their stock to drop some, hence my discussion about Fields.  Otherwise if we are trading up from lets say 20 to 3, you are likely giving up something like two #1s and two #2s.  

If you believe they are the guy id do it. We are dealing in hypotheticals so it’s tough to say what it would cost. I think what you posit is the high end. And even still, if you really really believe one of them is the real deal, you do it, imo.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

If you believe they are the guy id do it. We are dealing in hypotheticals so it’s tough to say what it would cost. I think what you posit is the high end. And even still, if you really really believe one of them is the real deal, you do it, imo.

 

I like both a lot but I wrestle though with giving up that much.  As much as I tout its better to fish in the top end of the draft it still always has an element of a crap shoot.  But I like the odds better when you are picking among the perceived better prospects.   But once you start giving up a ton of draft capital the risk increases.  I'd entertain the idea of doing it but I do have some hesitation.  

[Est.1974]

I think the more this season has progressed the more Rivera will have swayed towards having a respected veteran QB under centre in 2021.

 

If Smith retires, we really have a difficult situation to resolve. In that scenario I think we will have to invest heavily with multiple draft picks involved, or a cash and cap laden free agency contract, or potentially even a mixture of both. 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

Just now, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like both a lot but I wrestle though with giving up that much.  As much as I tout its better to fish in the top end of the draft it still always has an element of a crap shoot.  But I like the odds better when you are picking among the perceived better prospects.   But once you start giving up a ton of draft capital the risk increases.  I'd entertain the idea of doing it but I do have some hesitation.  

For sure no doubt. If the personnel folks have a strong conviction about either I have no qualms  pulling the trigger on whatever it ends up taking. You only do it if you feel strongly obviously. Otherwise you take your chances via the other avenues. 

[skinny21]

1 hour ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think the more this season has progressed the more Rivera will have swayed towards having a respected veteran QB under centre in 2021.

 

If Smith retires, we really have a difficult situation to resolve. In that scenario I think we will have to invest heavily with multiple draft picks involved, or a cash and cap laden free agency contract, or potentially even a mixture of both. 

 To your first point, I could see that.  For me personally, I think having the culture change, the winning, the players buying in and respected leaders in the locker room (Allen, Terry, Chase) means a young qb has (at least that portion of) the support structure in place to succeed.  In some ways, it might even better than a vet who is already set in their ways.  Obviously there are vets that can potentially up the culture theme based on their work ethic, or give it their all mentality (like a Stafford, Ryan?, etc) similar to what A. Smith has provided.

 

Re your 2nd point, it’s going to be very interesting to see which direction they go.  Any move will have it’s risks (potentially big, even franchise altering ones) and detractors.  

I’m a little zen about it to be honest.  If we can re-sign some key guys and add a talented ILB, I’m feeling really good about this team, even if someone like Kyle Allen starts for us... and he’s probably the worst case scenario in terms of who we wind up with.  Just to clarify, I’m not saying Allen is a bad option, just that worst case, if whoever we bring in (including Smith returning) is beat out by Allen, I’m cool with that.  Pretty good chance we bring in someone that can either beat him out, or has higher upside (like an early draft pick).  If that makes sense.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

 

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

 

 

I think I asked This somewhere before.... today, do you trade your 1st round pick this year and maybe something minimal next year (if you have to, to get it done) for Stafford if Det is willing?

Would you lean this route over the rookie qb either by trade or sticking where we may end up and taking a guy like Mac Jones or someone else we deem worthy?

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Athletic reporter for the 49ers on Stafford

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I think I asked This somewhere before.... today, do you trade your 1st round pick this year and maybe something minimal next year (if you have to, to get it done) for Stafford if Det is willing?

Would you lean this route over the rookie qb either by trade or sticking where we may end up and taking a guy like Mac Jones or someone else we deem worthy?

 

 

 

I am a big Stafford guy and lol the more some argue with me the more its hardened my point of view on it.  Ditto the more I explore Stafford the more I like what I see/read.  I think we'd be lucky if Stafford hits the market let alone it being a tough choice as to what to do if he does.  I'd trade a first for Stafford but if I had to add more capital I'd try to make it a player.

 

I like Mac Jones, don't love him.  He could end up good or a bust or just meh.  He's just my favorite roll of the dice QB that might end up near the spot we are at in the first.  I get they are all roll of the dice but I don't love Jones' ceiling.  But I can see him worrking out.  Stafford on the other hand is tough as nails, has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, has decent mobility, is clutch.  I get some put wins and loses totally on the QB but I don't feel that way.  Some give him a hard time for not being Aaron Rodgers and overcoming his supporting cast.  But I have no delusions he's Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady.  But we aren't getting those guys in trades.  He's in that next tier and he might be the best we can get.  So in short yeah I'd do Stafford over Mac Jones.

 

 

 

While Tom Brady has been everything the Bucs could have hoped for and more, the reality is that the 43-year old may only play one more season after this one, which has prompted all Bucs fans to have one eye on the present and one eye on the future. So hearing head coach Bruce Arians gush about Lions’ quarterback Matt Stafford on Tuesday certainly got the wheels turning about a potential marriage in Tampa Bay in 2022.

 

“He’s one of my all-time favorite guys,” Arians said. “He’s tough as nails. Like I said the other day, he’s one of the few quarterbacks that I like to go out and watch him warm up, just to watch him throw, because he’s so special. I’ve always felt like he was one of the top 4-5 guys in this league for a long time. Like I said, he’s tough as nails and his guys know it. They know he’s gonna suck it up for them.”

 

Stafford played through a rib injury on Sunday in a loss to the Titans, throwing for 252 yards and a touchdown on 22-32 passing. Despite the Lions struggles as a team, Stafford’s numbers are again impressive this season, as he’s thrown for 3,774 yards and 23 touchdowns to just nine interceptions, while completing over 64 percent of his passes. He’s been especially sharp for the Lions over the past few weeks, playing his best football of the season.

 

“He can make every throw from every angle,” Arians said. “He’s just so, so talented. There are only so many guys that are that talented, you just say ‘hey I’m gonna sneak out and go watch him warm up’. I’ve been a fan of his for a long, long time.”

Stafford’s career has been statistically prolific and an amazing testament to his longevity, but he’s rarely been recognized as a top quarterback in the NFL while toiling in one of the worst organizations in the league.

“It’s the same old story,” Arians said. “It’s winning. You can be a great player, if your team is not winning, you’re not going to get what you deserve, and he deserves a lot.”

 

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[COWBOY-KILLA-]

22 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I am a big Stafford guy and lol the more some argue with me the more its hardened my point of view on it.  Ditto the more I explore Stafford the more I like what I see/read.  I think we'd be lucky if Stafford hits the market let alone it being a tough choice as to what to do if he does.  I'd trade a first for Stafford but if I had to add more capital I'd try to make it a player.

 

I like Mac Jones, don't love him.  He could end up good or a bust or just meh.  He's just my favorite roll of the dice QB that might end up near the spot we are at in the first.  I get they are all roll of the dice but I don't love Jones' ceiling.  But I can see him worrking out.  Stafford on the other hand is tough as nails, has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, has decent mobility, is clutch.  I get some put wins and loses totally on the QB but I don't feel that way.  Some give him a hard time for not being Aaron Rodgers and overcoming his supporting cast.  But I have no delusions he's Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Tom Brady.  But we aren't getting those guys in trades.  He's in that next tier and he might be the best we can get.  So in short yeah I'd do Stafford over Mac Jones.

 

 

 

I would also lean on trading what I needed to to acquire Stafford if at all possible. Not sure it will be though. I’d do it in a heartbeat over trading up for a rook. But if he’s not available, and there isn’t another vet we can trade for, there isn’t much we can do. I’d then look really hard to see if trading up is the solution and if we love one of the top guys. With this whole thing my takeaway is we should be aggressive sooner than later to get QB fixed. I’d only accept standing pat Or signing a middling could be bet if we’ve exhausted all other avenues to solve it.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

I would also lean on trading what I needed to to acquire Stafford if at all possible. Not sure it will be though. I’d do it in a heartbeat over trading up for a rook. But if he’s not available, and there isn’t another vet we can trade for, there isn’t much we can do. I’d then look really hard to see if trading up is the solution and if we love one of the top guys. With this whole thing my takeaway is we should be aggressive sooner than later to get QB fixed. I’d only accept standing pat Or signing a middling could be bet if we’ve exhausted all other avenues to solve it.

 

We have the same mindset on this.  I agree to keep options open and be aggressive. 

[KDawg]

Stafford for 20/23 million for his two years is more tempting than even 24/25 million. I will say that.

 

At that rate I’d consider a first this year and third next year - but I think it may just be considering...

 

I’d need an assurance that he’s going to be here for the next 3-5 years. Not 2. If I am spending a first, which is a 5 year contract, and significantly less money, I better have the guy for more than 1-2 years. 

[CapsSkins]

13 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Stafford for 20/23 million for his two years is more tempting than even 24/25 million. I will say that.

 

At that rate I’d consider a first this year and third next year - but I think it may just be considering...

 

I’d need an assurance that he’s going to be here for the next 3-5 years. Not 2. If I am spending a first, which is a 5 year contract, and significantly less money, I better have the guy for more than 1-2 years. 

 

Pretty sure if it were to happen, it would be an Alex type situation where Stafford gets input into the process and we & his agent agree to some broad parameters on an extension before pulling the trigger.

 

I'd do a 1 & a 3 or two 2's or whatever in a heartbeat and then go straight BPA in the draft, prioritizing LB, OL, WR/TE and S.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

8 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Stafford for 20/23 million for his two years is more tempting than even 24/25 million. I will say that.

 

At that rate I’d consider a first this year and third next year - but I think it may just be considering...

 

I’d need an assurance that he’s going to be here for the next 3-5 years. Not 2. If I am spending a first, which is a 5 year contract, and significantly less money, I better have the guy for more than 1-2 years. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[skinny21]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Stafford for 20/23 million for his two years is more tempting than even 24/25 million. I will say that.

 

At that rate I’d consider a first this year and third next year - but I think it may just be considering...

 

I’d need an assurance that he’s going to be here for the next 3-5 years. Not 2. If I am spending a first, which is a 5 year contract, and significantly less money, I better have the guy for more than 1-2 years. 

I’m with SIP in that I think Stafford is a tier below the top 3 or so elite guys, but not by much.  Frankly, with Brees and Brady done, outside of Mahommes and maybe Wilson, I’m not sure if there’s anyone I’d put ahead of him for the next few years.

 

With that said, I’m with you in that I’m starting to think he’ll cost more than a 1st... and maybe a lot more.  If we extend him, I worry that eats into our ability to re-sign guys, and I really like the idea of keeping our homegrown studs over chasing pricey FAs.  But man, the chance to get a bonafide franchise qb to pair with McLaurin, Gibson and a stout defense?  Hard to pass up.  Add a good ILB (I know I’m speaking your language there) and I’d have super bowl aspirations for the next few years.

[Skinsinparadise]

11 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

I’m with SIP in that I think Stafford is a tier below the top 3 or so elite guys, but not by much.  Frankly, with Brees and Brady done, outside of Mahommes and maybe Wilson, I’m not sure if there’s anyone I’d put ahead of him for the next few years.

 

With that said, I’m with you in that I’m starting to think he’ll cost more than a 1st... and maybe a lot more.  If we extend him, I worry that eats into our ability to re-sign guys, and I really like the idea of keeping our homegrown studs over chasing pricey FAs.  But man, the chance to get a bonafide franchise qb to pair with McLaurin, Gibson and a stout defense?  Hard to pass up.  Add a good ILB (I know I’m speaking your language there) and I’d have super bowl aspirations for the next few years.

 

I think PFF likely has it nailed, a first and third.   I'd try to sub a player for the third.  If we were picking in the top 10, I'd instead focusing on trading up in the draft but I don't think we would be in easy position to do now. 

 

I have some doubts that Stafford hits the market but if he doesn't it wouldn't surprise me if the best veteran option is Fitzgerald and the best draft option is Mac Jones or trading up a little to get him.  So its tough for me to yawn on Stafford like we can easily do better.  I think there is a good shot our best case scenario would be Stafford being on the trade market. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[mhd24]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think PFF likely has it nailed, a first and third.   I'd try to sub a player for the third.  If we were picking in the top 10, I'd instead focusing on trading up in the draft but I don't think we would be in easy position to do now. 

 

I have some doubts Stafford if he hits the market but if he doesn't wouldn't surprise me if the best veteran optiion is Fitzgerald and the best draft option is Mac Jones or trading up a little to get him. 

You could gamble on Jameis.

[Skinsinparadise]

https://www.nfl.com/news/debrief-previewing-movers-and-shakers-in-2021-qb-market

 

Debrief: Previewing movers and shakers in 2021 QB market

 

 

 

The Jets' win over the Rams on Sunday, which improved their record enough to move them behind the (1-13) Jaguars in the race for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, may alter the fate of two franchises for the next two decades. (Or not! Especially if the Colts rest starters against the Jags in Week 17.) No matter how the next two weeks go, the results will alter how the Jets and Jaguars approach an offseason where the draft isn't the only avenue for improving at quarterback.

This week, I'm using the Debrief to take an early look at which quarterbacks are likely to hit free agency, which big names could be traded and which teams will be in the market at the position. (All salary information comes from Over The Cap.)

Spicy QBs with a realistic chance of being available

 

 

Jimmy Garoppolo

San Francisco 49ers · Age: 29

Two years after appearing in just three games, Jimmy G. missed most of the season again, just when the guaranteed money in his five-year contract ran out. The 29-year-old has two years left on that deal, but the 49ers can save nearly all of his $26.9 million cap hit in 2021 by moving on, and it feels like the right time to do so, especially if his old bosses in New England want him back.

 

 

Matthew Stafford

Detroit Lions · Age: 32

While it's early in the process, there have been signs from Stafford and cautious speculation from media members that Stafford could be ready to move on from Detroit. That process will largely depend on what the new, as-yet-unknown bosses in Detroit want to do, but Stafford could try to force their hand. 

 

 

Carson Wentz

Philadelphia Eagles · Age: 27

Trading Wentz would save virtually no cap space if done before June 1, so the Eagles would have to be incredibly motivated sellers to move him. Jalen Hurts balling out for two more weeks may be motivation enough, no matter who's the coach next season. I'd expect Wentz to have a strong trade market because of the former No. 2 overall pick's previous production, despite the $34.8 million guaranteed remaining on his contract.  

 

 

Sam Darnold

New York Jets · Age: 23

Losing out on the No. 1 overall pick in next year's draft could complicate this decision for general manager Joe Douglas, but probably not to the point that he'll keep Darnold as the unquestioned starter. The former No. 3 overall pick has shown virtually no development in his three NFL seasons, and his stats rank among the worst by quarterbacks with at least 30 starts of the last decade. This could be the last chance for the Jets to get value in return for him, but it's possible Darnold will compete with an incoming veteran or rookie instead of moving on

[skinny21]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think PFF likely has it nailed, a first and third.   I'd try to sub a player for the third.  If we were picking in the top 10, I'd instead focusing on trading up in the draft but I don't think we would be in easy position to do now. 

 

I have some doubts that Stafford hits the market but if he doesn't it wouldn't surprise me if the best veteran option is Fitzgerald and the best draft option is Mac Jones or trading up a little to get him.  So its tough for me to yawn on Stafford like we can easily do better.  I think there is a good shot our best case scenario would be Stafford being on the trade market. 

The reason I posit it could be more is the bidding war angle.  Because as you point out, beyond whoever lands the top rooks, Stafford is a much better than the field.  And as you pointed out... yesterday? there a lot of teams that either will, or could be looking for a qb.  This is far different than trading Garappolo, Foles, etc.  Could easily see multiple teams vying for him and someone who absolutely loves him (like Arians) giving up more like 2 1sts.  But I could be way wrong too.