Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[Number 44]

4 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Chiefs had to trade a third and a first to get from 27 to 10. 

To be clear, are you saying the Chiefs traded an additional first and a third to move up from 27 to 10, or are you saying that it cost them a third to move up those 17 spots?

[CapsSkins]

5 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

To be clear, are you saying the Chiefs traded an additional first and a third to move up from 27 to 10, or are you saying that it cost them a third to move up those 17 spots?

 

The former. In order to swap 1st's, they had to pay an additional 1st and a 3rd.

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, Spaceman Spiff said:

 

I don't know if Smith retires.  I think he looks around and realizes this is a team he can win with.  He's won the majority of his games as starter, he knows what he can do with this group.

 

We still need the QB of the future and I'm not sure how we go about getting it if Smith sticks around or if we get Cam for a 2 year deal as you've suggested.  Maybe Montez is a guy they like and wanted to bring about slowly.  Who knows.

 

 

At least if Smith sticks around, the pressure is off to find that 2021 starter. Take a chance with Lance to sit a year. Even day 2 QB. Bit less pressure with Smith around. It’ll be unpopular, but I would say the same with Cam. Very trusted by Rivera.

 

We need to draft a QB before we are done in the 4th round whatever happens. Got to keep adding and working to find that rookie who can stick around.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

At least if Smith sticks around, the pressure is off to find that 2021 starter. Take a chance with Lance to sit a year. Even day 2 QB. Bit less pressure with Smith around. It’ll be unpopular, but I would say the same with Cam. Very trusted by Rivera.

 

We need to draft a QB before we are done in the 4th round whatever happens. Got to keep adding and working to find that rookie who can stick around.

I really like Lance. Other than Fields he’s the guy I’d want the most for this franchise. 
 

He has to correct some things, though. He takes too many hits, at times he thinks is arm is better than it is and he throws some really strange passes, and he has to be more than a single read/half field read guy.

 

But his size, strength, speed, athleticism and even mechanics are very good. He has to get the mental down. All accounts say he’s a work machine. If that holds up through the draft scrutiny he’d be a hell of a get. 
 

I think the top 4 QBs in this draft are all potential franchise guys. Then next 3-5 are potential starters that can get you by and then there’s a few developmental guys that could go either way. Then there’s a bunch of meh. 

[Est.1974]

Yeah, I mean going for meh is pointless. I think Kyle Allen takes away the need for another meh QB. That probably sounds negative but I intend that as a compliment...

 

If we win the division, I’ll give up #19 plus a 3rd and future 2nd/3rd to jump for Lance if necessary. We need to find a bonafide #1 medium/longer term. If we falter and don’t win the division, and we pick 9-12 say, Lance really is there for us. 
 

We have a great combination of picks and cap space to make something work, whatever route we go.

[Skinsinparadise]

31 minutes ago, Number 44 said:

To be clear, are you saying the Chiefs traded an additional first and a third to move up from 27 to 10, or are you saying that it cost them a third to move up those 17 spots?

 

Yep an additional first.  It costs a premium to trade up.  It's not cheap.  Throwing just a third to climb in the draft usually don't involve much of a climb.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

Yeah, I mean going for meh is pointless. I think Kyle Allen takes away the need for another meh QB. That probably sounds negative but I intend that as a compliment...

 

If we win the division, I’ll give up #19 plus a 3rd and future 2nd/3rd to jump for Lance if necessary. We need to find a bonafide #1 medium/longer term. If we falter and don’t win the division, and we pick 9-12 say, Lance really is there for us. 
 

We have a great combination of picks and cap space to make something work, whatever route we go.

 

Yeah to me there are two fundamental options with some caveats:

 

1) Trade for a vet like Ryan or Stafford, and then go straight BPA in the draft, do not move up for a QB at all. You get 1-2 (or more) years to find your heir and develop him.

 

2) Bring back Alex and trade up for one of the top Rookies

Caveat 1: if a guy like Derek Carr or less likely Dak becomes available, he becomes your guy for the next 10 years.

 

Caveat 2: if Alex retires, you may need to get a guy in the Mariota or Minshew tier while still gunning to trade up for a guy you covet in the draft. This is really the worst case scenario because you have to spend for an inferior Alex replacement and also spend to get your young guy ASAP.

[JSSkinz]

You guys think Trask will fall to the 3rd or 4th?  I've watched him since Franks went down and have never been that impressed but I like the way he fought in the Bama game, such a shame the defense was so bad this year.

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

25 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

If we win the division, I’ll give up #19 plus a 3rd and future 2nd/3rd to jump for Lance if necessary. We need to find a bonafide #1 medium/longer term. If we falter and don’t win the division, and we pick 9-12 say, Lance really is there for us. 

I just don't believe in Lance to that degree. I mean, who am I and if Smith & Ron believes, that's more than enough. That said, my worry is always about the losing out or trading up for the next great prospect and getting a Carson Palmer or an Andy Dalton or heck even Alex Smith. Its not like these are "bad" QBs but they're mediocre and for the hype they got coming out they didn't live up to it. That's why I like what New Orleans did with Brees, what Tennessee did with Tannehill, what SF did with Jimmy G, what KC did with Alex Smith, what STL did with Trent Green, etc.

 

These young QBs who have the talent but for one reason or another a new coach comes in and decides he wants "his own guy" and gets rid of a talented QB who may not have the hype of a Burrow or Tua, but lets be real. Look at any draft and you see that probably 1 maybe 2 QBs live up to that hype. Who will it be this year? Lawrence and who else? My money is on Wilson who we probably can't get because he's playing himself into #2. After that there will probably be no real difference in performance of a lot of these QBs. Maybe Lance and Fields have the potential to spice it up but I can't see the likelihood that all 4 or even 3 of those guys are really good. Even if you look at 2018 you get Lamar > Allen > Baker > Darnold, but before last year it was looking like it was Lamar and a bunch of mid range QBs. Now Allen has emerged as another top tier guy (at least this year), but Baker and Darnold are guys who are showing they they can have hot games and can be effective with a running game but not guys you'd count on to get 10 points with 6 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. Heck and even Lamar's light has dimmed a bit because of the style of offense he runs and the type of passes he can/can't throw. 

 

Maybe I'm just being cautious, but if the price tag is lower, I'd be more comfortable with bringing in a Darnold or Minshew and just seeing if they can be the man to lead this team. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

To me Fields and Zach Wilson both have a high ceiling and a medium to high size floor.  Wilson might be edging to me as my preferred choice over Fields.  I go back and forth.

 

I don't like Lance as much. He's a full peg below for me versus the other two.  But Lance's mobility and arm strength and high intangbles are intriguing.  high ceiling.  low floor.

 

I think all three of those guys go top 10. 

 

Then Mac Jones to me is the next.  His upside reminds me some of Kirk.  He has different strengths and weaknesses but I think his upside is a QB of that kind of caliber. High intangibles.  Medium ceiling.  Medium floor.   Tough to gauge his draft stock.  Some have him top 10, some top 20.  Some late first.  Some 2nd round.  The momentum seems to be pointing to him being a riser.

 

My next three favorite wildcards would be Ridder, Newman and Trask.     All who might go in the 2nd/3rd range. Trask maybe in the late first?

 

Ridder:  really good mobility.  Decent arm but doesn't have a rocket.  Decent touch.  Throws on the move.  Accuracy has been sketchy but he continues to improve.  His last half of this season has been his best ball.    In mocks I've seen him everywhere from late first through the third.  Medium ceiling.  Low floor.

 

Newman:  I like his accuracy more so than Ridder.  But also raw like Ridder is.  He's mobile but not as much as Ridder.  Good arm.    I'd have him ahead of Ridder if not for the Clemson game where he looked atrocious.  Medium-high ceiling.  Low floor -- lower floor than Ridder IMO.  Seems like a 2nd round/3rd rounder.

 

Trask:  Super efficient, good accuracy.  Footwork in the pocket subpar.  Mobility subpar.  I was completely out on him until the Alabama game where I saw more zip on his throws and some beauty hard to make out routes that got my attention.  I still don't love him, not sure I even like him but I can see him as a roll of the dice type.  High intangibles-over acheiver?  Low to medium ceiling -- medium floor.   Some team might snag him in the late first -- maybe 2nd?

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Tedskins 21]

I don’t want Trask. Doesn’t seem very bright based off interviews I have watched. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[KDawg]

I think Lance has among the absolute highest ceiling in the draft. Including Lawrence and Fields.

 

The problem with Lance, and why he is likely QB4 or even 5 selected in the next draft is his floor. 
 

Again, I refer to Josh Allen. But if Allen didn’t improve/stay the path he’s on... and the Bills didn’t totally retool their receiver group, and his team didn’t believe in him, he may be in trouble for a starting spot now. He struggled. A lot. Big time. 
 

But he improved himself and his team never lost faith in the guy. Neither did his city. Allen is absolutely loved.

 

If Lance comes here and the fans turn on him and the locker room sours (even with similar production vs. Allen’s rookie year) he could go the exact opposite way.

 

There is a lot of risk with him. 
 

I am hoping he lasts into the 10-20 range. At some point in that range you pull the trigger on him and you have a guy who has a ton of potential.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I think Lance has among the absolute highest ceiling in the draft. Including Lawrence and Fields.

 

The problem with Lance, and why he is likely QB4 or even 5 selected in the next draft is his floor. 
 

Again, I refer to Josh Allen. But if Allen didn’t improve/stay the path he’s on... and the Bills didn’t totally retool their receiver group, and his team didn’t believe in him, he may be in trouble for a starting spot now. He struggled. A lot. Big time. 
 

But he improved himself and his team never lost faith in the guy. Neither did his city. Allen is absolutely loved.

 

If Lance comes here and the fans turn on him and the locker room sours (even with similar production vs. Allen’s rookie year) he could go the exact opposite way.

 

There is a lot of risk with him. 
 

I am hoping he lasts into the 10-20 range. At some point in that range you pull the trigger on him and you have a guy who has a ton of potential.

 

I like Lance but not to the extent where I'd trade big to get him.  I'd be surprised if they don't have to trade up to #9 to get him.  So many QB needy teams picking after the Giants that you'd think they'd snag him themselves.   Assuming that he lasts until #9.  Right now, my guess it you got to give up your 2021 and 2022 first rounders or 2021 first rounder and a 2nd and third.   This is assuming the current draft order holds. 

 

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like Lance but not to the extent where I'd trade big to get him.  I'd be surprised if they don't have to trade up to #9 to get him.  So many QB needy teams picking after the Giants that you'd think they'd snag him themselves.   Assuming that he lasts until #9.  Right now, my guess it you got to give up your 2021 and 2022 first rounders or 2021 first rounder and a 2nd and third.   This is assuming the current draft order holds. 

Tough to project that. No one knows and the draft is usually a **** show. My strategy would be 1) see our pick. 2) identify QBs we’d trade up into the teens for and what we’d be willing to part with if we can 3) see what happens.

 

I think it’s possible Lance is there, especially with Mac getting some love lately (which I don’t fully understand).

 

I think the likelihood that Lance falls to the teens is > Us getting Stafford.

[Skinsinparadise]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

 

I think the likelihood that Lance falls to the teens is > Us getting Stafford.

 

I think both sceanrios are unlikely but I'd bet on Stafford becoming available as more likely than Lance falling close to our pick.    

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think both sceanrios are unlikely but I'd bet on Stafford becoming available as more likely than Lance falling close to our pick.    

I didn’t necessarily say available.

;)

 

[Skinsinparadise]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I didn’t necessarily say available.

 

 

OK.  Then to me is close.  About equally unlikely.  My theory is there are too many needy QBs and if you buy what some NFL observers say there are teams really high on Lance.  And I do think Hurts burning it up some thus far brings home the idea of betting in favor of QBs with mobility. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[burgngold fan]

4 hours ago, ILikeBilly said:

I don't get the love for Kyle Allen as a backup and especially as a starter.  The FACTS are, he went undrafted, didn't win games for us and was injured both to.we he was named the starter.  Why do you trust in an often injured, non-winner? What am I missing?

I've been wondering the same thing!  Also don't know why justine fields is so highly regarded!  Would just as assume stay with dh! Personally I. Still think dwayne is still out best bet at this stage of the game!  Can only hope his immaturity will pass at some point. 

 

As for development. We may already have him in steven montez!  Nobody knows at this point!  

 

I just don't think this is the year to make a big splash in the qb position.  Unless one of the qbs drop to using the draft.  

[Skinsinparadise]

For the pro Wentz crowd, this article describes him as a bit of a headcase and diva

 

https://www.phillyvoice.com/carson-wentz-exclusive-sources-paint-eagles-quarterback-as-selfish-not-team-player/

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Then Mac Jones to me is the next.  His upside reminds me some of Kirk.  He has different strengths and weaknesses but I think his upside is a QB of that kind of caliber.

That’s not good enough then really, is it?

2 hours ago, KDawg said:

I think Lance has among the absolute highest ceiling in the draft. Including Lawrence and Fields.

 

The problem with Lance, and why he is likely QB4 or even 5 selected in the next draft is his floor. 

let’s not stay medium.

Stafford to NE would be nailed on. Been saying that for days. Bill loves him, they have 80-90m in space. No brainer.

[skinny21]

4 hours ago, KDawg said:

I really don’t know why you guys are so confused by Smith winning despite being pedestrian.

 

When you can trust your QB you can win games. If your quarterback is trustworthy but not so great the better teams are going to be really hard to beat. But the lower tier 1 teams, middle of the road and bad teams are beatable. 
 

If you add an elite defense you can stop anyone in conjunction with a ball control, turnover allergic offense. 

What’s kind of amazing to me is that one of the knocks on an Alex Smith type (‘plodding’ offenses in general) has always been the inability to come back from deficits.  Yet here we are spotting opponents 2-3 score leads on a regular basis....

 

(obviously this is largely on the defense - our second half D, holy cow - but amazing to me nonetheless).  

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, skinny21 said:

What’s kind of amazing to me is that one of the knocks on an Alex Smith type (‘plodding’ offenses in general) has always been the inability to come back from deficits.  Yet here we are spotting opponents 2-3 score leads on a regular basis....

 

(obviously this is largely on the defense - our second half D, holy cow - but amazing to me nonetheless).  

Absolutely.

 

Thing is the biggest critique on this team under Alex, now and in 2018 is, “I don’t like it because it’s boring”.

 

I’m sorry to those that think that, I didn’t know winning was boring. 

[drowland]

I don't get the Stafford trade talk.  The Lions don't have another QB on the roster.  They're currently picking #11.  What GM and HC are going to walk in there and say yeah lets trade Stafford and ride with Chase Daniels and whatever QB we can get at #11?  It's possible they could draft a QB at #11 but if they did it's more likely they'd ride with Stafford for 2021, keep the rookie on the bench for a year and then trade Stafford in 2022.  To me a lot of steps have to be taken first for Detroit to make a move on Stafford this year.  

 

Atlanta makes more since drafting #4 and trading Matt Ryan because they're in position to get Fields or Wilson.  If the Jets decide to stick with Darnold the Falcons could even jump up to #2.  

Edited December 23, 2020 by drowland

[KDawg]

4 minutes ago, drowland said:

I don't get the Stafford trade talk.  The Lions don't have another QB on the roster.  They're currently picking #11.  What GM and HC are going to walk in there and say yeah lets trade Stafford and ride with Chase Daniels and whatever QB we can get at #11?  It's possible they could draft a QB at #11 but if they did it's more likely they'd ride with Stafford for 2021, keep the rookie on the bench for a year and then trade Stafford in 2022.  

 

Atlanta makes more since drafting #4 and trading Matt Ryan because they're in position to get Fields or Wilson.  If the Jets decide to stick with Darnold the Falcons could even jump up to #2.  

Thats a chess move. Jets trade the Falcons for 2, take their first and Matt Ryan. At 4 they draft BPA (Chase, Pitts, Harris, Parsons).

 

Turn around and trade Darnold for a pick. Shore up their roster considerably.

 

Ryan won’t last them long... but that’s quite the trade.

 

Im not sure if that’s value there... but it may be for Atlanta to get Fields and get the Ryan contract off the books. Good trade both ways in MY opinion.