Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[drowland]

33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

While I don't love the idea of Darnold, there are a few things that could make this the most realistic trade scenario:

 

1) He's younger than Joe Burrow. (Burrow: 12/10/96, Darnold: 6/5/97)

2) He's not a giant cap hit

3) It won't cost major draft equity to get him

 

Problem is that you have to wonder if he's damaged goods at this point. 

 

You would also have to decide on his 5th year option this offseason if you make a trade for him which I think would be around $25M in 2022.  

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[heyholetsgogrant]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Sucks, it feels like we are the only team in this NFL over the last 30+ years that can’t draft a QB.  We get stuck with Haskins...🤢

 

Note:  Please for the love of god don’t give up a 1st round pick for Stanford, so overrated.  The NFL can thank him for overinflating QB salaries early.

Edited December 21, 2020 by heyholetsgogrant

[Thinking Skins]

8 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Chiming in.  I wouldn't want either guy.  But there is a reason why scuttlebutt is Haskins maybe fetches a 6th rounder in a trade and Darnold a 2nd.  Darnold's talent > Haskins but not by a mile.  Darnold's intangibles are supposedly super good and Haskins is in question.  Darnold has one at least OK but not hot full season under his belt 19 TDS, 13 INTs. 7-6 record.  Over 3000 yards.

 

This all makes sense, but I'd really be interested in the falloff. Not just in the Jets record, but in Darnold's production / development. He was looking good his first two years in the league and looking like he'd be on the same level as a Josh Allen this year to become a leader and possible playoff QB. But then his numbers just about across the board have dipped. Does that make this year a fake or the previous years? And since he only had 1 year of productive / decent stats its really 50/50 in terms of who is the real Darnold. ANd he didn't have the controversy that Haskins had in terms of coaching change / coordinator change. Haskins probably has better WRs but not by much. I don't know. 

 

I wouldn't be in love with the idea of Darnold above Haskins. I wouldn't hate it as much as say us signing a Tribusky but I'd still think that the best bet would be going with Kyle Allen over both Haskins and Darnold. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

This all makes sense, but I'd really be interested in the falloff. Not just in the Jets record, but in Darnold's production / development. He was looking good his first two years in the league and looking like he'd be on the same level as a Josh Allen this year to become a leader and possible playoff QB. But then his numbers just about across the board have dipped. Does that make this year a fake or the previous years? And since he only had 1 year of productive / decent stats its really 50/50 in terms of who is the real Darnold. ANd he didn't have the controversy that Haskins had in terms of coaching change / coordinator change. Haskins probably has better WRs but not by much. I don't know. 

 

I wouldn't be in love with the idea of Darnold above Haskins. I wouldn't hate it as much as say us signing a Tribusky but I'd still think that the best bet would be going with Kyle Allen over both Haskins and Darnold. 

 

Darnold played well yesterday i guess what might be interesting to see if he rides that wave or slips.    I'd ride with Kyle Allen over Haskins or Darnold, too.  But I'd rather upgrade the spot period.  I am not excited about chasing players in trades that are wildcards unless we are talking about the draft. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Blanka]

Darnold is way better than Haskins. A lot of times we look at stats in a vacuum. 

 

SD had an 88.5 QBR yesterday vs the number one pass and overall defense in the league. Controlled the game from start to finish. He has highs that Dwayne never has. But I don’t want to trash DH so I’ll move on. 

 

Sam is a work in progress but he does some stuff really well. The question needs to be how does the things he does well mesh with what Scott Turner does. And would his weaknesses be as prevalent in this offense in comparison to Gase’s. 

 

And as kdawg stated earlier the age is intriguing. It’s a Year 4 guy who’s only a year older than incoming rookies like Trask and Mac Jones. 
 

And for the record this is not my number one choice for us, just what I think end up happening .

[Est.1974]

15 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

mentioned him yesterday. good chance Carolina are picking top 5 right in QB territory.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

mentioned him yesterday. good chance Carolina are picking top 5 right in QB territory.

 

Yep and his take about the QB position is exactly mind and it goes double when you got a young great cheap defense like we do and Carolina doesn't.  You don't want to major in medicore QBs and see what happens and get lucky.  You go for the gold.   Obviously, the execution of it is the hard part.  But I don't want to play a hand that likely results in mediocrity from the QB spot and just hope the rest of the units carry the team and we hit lightening in a bottle like Jacksonville in 2017 (if I recall the year right). 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Thinking Skins]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Darnold played well yesterday i guess what might be interesting to see if he rides that wave or slips.    I'd ride with Kyle Allen over Haskins or Darnold, too.  But I'd rather upgrade the spot period.  I am not excited about chasing players in trades that are wildcards unless we are talking about the draft. 

The thing is (and we've had this conversation many times), the draft is such an unknown that I don't like investing so much in a player. The good thing about Darnold and Haskins is they both have this really high up side that could be a franchise QB if they ever reach it. But as of right now the cost of getting them is almost nil. Kyle Allen is a risk because he has gotten injured in the two seasons he's played. He showed me an improvement this year in terms of his ability to protect the ball (but that first NY game still sucks to me) and to create plays outside of the pocket. His arm strength scares me, but I don't think arm strength is the holy grail that it was thought to be 20-30 years ago. 

 

If we don't get a top QB from our draft spot (which is unlikely) what I'd like to do is 

1. Start Smith if he doesn't retire with Kyle Allen as the backup

2. Start Smith if he doesn't retire with Haskins as the backup

3. Start Kyle Allen and have Haskins as his backup

4. Start Kyle Allen and have another young vet as his backup

 

There are options like Ryan/Stafford/Carr/Fitzpatrick/Cam/Rivers/Minshew/Winston/Wentz, but all of them are either going to be costly or have such a low ceiling on their production that its not much better than what we had in 2019 with Colt, Case and Dwayne or what we'd have with Kyle and Dwayne. In some sense we could say that Ryan/Stafford are really elite and could turn this team around, but for the cost it would take its reminicant of the RG3 trade or the Mcnabb trade or the Brunell trade. All three of which never lived up to the potential of what we gave gave up for them. Do I really expect one of these vets to actually come in here and take us from potentially 8-8 to being say 12-4 and in the NFC title game? Well, seeing as only Ryan and Cam have been to a championship game - once each in their careers, I find that difficult to believe that they're the missing link. 

[CapsSkins]

I don't want a Rookie, Haskins, Darnold or Allen starting Week 1 of 2021. I either want Alex or a vet like Ryan or Stafford. If it's Alex, I want a Rookie learning under him even if we trade up in the first to get him. If it's Ryan or Stafford, we could either draft a Rookie now or over the next couple years depending on how the board shakes out this year, and I definitely wouldn't trade up.

[Skinsinparadise]

51 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

The thing is (and we've had this conversation many times), the draft is such an unknown that I don't like investing so much in a player. The good thing about Darnold and Haskins is they both have this really high up side 

 

I have to restudy Darnold, its been a long time.  I recall liking him but not loving him before that draft but its been a long time and I've seen some of his putrid performances with the Jets that's tough to get out of my head.  I'd need to study him the way i did for Rosen when he was on the market.  My thought on Rosen in 2018 was I don't want him but I'd take him over drafting Haskins.

 

As for Haskins, a strong but not elite arm strength to me doesn't translate alone for high upside.  I've never bought the high upside argument with Haskins.  High upside to me would be someone like Lance.   I think Haskins' upside is good but not great and certainly nothing special.   i posted an article months back quoting scouts about what they look for in QBs and they were obsessed with ball placement not arm strength.  Haskins' ball placement is poor IMO.  His mobility is just OK.  And he has a good but not IMO special arm.  To me he's Ramsey/Campbell Part 2.  I'd put the odds on a scale from 0-10 that he becomes a franchise QB is 1.

 

The two points I am willing to sell hard on this thread that I'll risk looking foolish on in the near future:

 

A.  Dak will not be the WFT starter next season.  Dallas will not let that happen.

 

B.  Haskins will never be a top 10 QB 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[CapsSkins]

I believe most likely starters for Week 1 next year are Alex, Stafford and Ryan in that order. 

[Anselmheifer]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

A.  Dak will not be the WFT starter next season.  Dallas will not let that happen.

 

B.  Haskins will never be a top 10 QB 

 

A. I'm thinking Dak probably gets franchised and we may be having this same conversation again next year. 

B. I agree. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Bears having a similar issue that we did with Kirk, the dude peaking right before FA

 

 

 

 

[Blanka]

If the Lions open up for business. I have a hard time seeing Stafford, teams generally trade guys that good out of conference. 

[Skinsinparadise]

Some hyperbole below but there is something to that point which IMO makes it more pressing to find a QB.  the Eagles look a lot better with Hurts. 

 

 

 

[TradeTheBeal!]

I’d be pretty stoked to nab Darnold for something like a 4th rounder.

[88Comrade2000]

Since the Jets probably lost out on getting Trevor; do they draft Justin or try to rehab Sam?

 

Dwayne has no future in the NFL. What team is going waste the 2-3 years to see if Dwayne develops? Dwayne may have to try the XFL in 22.

 

The Team needs to move on from Dwayne.

[SweatSuit]

26 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Some hyperbole below but there is something to that point which IMO makes it more pressing to find a QB.  the Eagles look a lot better with Hurts. 

 

 

 

You were on record about a month or so back as actively rooting for the team to lose to get a higher draft pick at QB. Yet another example of a QB being picked outside the top 10. Now he’s the GOAT. 

[NoCalMike]

Hurts sample size is way too small to make a statement like that anyway.  A lot of young QB's have early success, especially ones with the RPO threat, however after about a month of game film on them, when defenses know what to expect, their go through a rapid decline.  Someone like Dak is the exception because when he went in for an injured Romo he was handed the keys to a Cadillac offense already which afforded him the ability to just manage games and slowly add more to his shoulders as he became ready.  That isn't the scenario for most young QBs as they are drafted onto bad teams to begin with.  The media is always so overly enamored when young QB's have some early success, they want to anoint them the next this or that the minute they get a couple of wins. 

 

Kyle Allen is another example.  Take his small sample size with Washington and you could make the claim that he is a way better QB now than when he was in Carolina, right?  However we barely got much from him before the injury so for all we know he might have reverted back to what people already thought of him.

 

As far as WFT goes, I would say the search for the next QB will have a lot to do with how the coaches evaluate the team overall.  If the coaches see the Defense and running game as good enough to compete for a playoff run, then I think you go out and look for a QB that can help this team right now.  However, if you think the team is still a couple seasons away from competing at that level, and 2020 was really just masked by how bad the NFC East is overall, then you probably look to bring back Allen, talk Alex Smith out of retirement, and go with a draft pick.

[Skinsinparadise]

20 minutes ago, SweatSuit said:

You were on record about a month or so back as actively rooting for the team to lose to get a higher draft pick at QB. Yet another example of a QB being picked outside the top 10. Now he’s the GOAT. 

 

Once we started losing and we looked bad, I was in favor of losing if we weren't going to the playoffs or playing poorly where we were simply the best of the bad lot.  But if we both play well and make the playoffs that's a different drill for me.  I was on the record on this thread of rooting for them to beat the Steelers.  Beating them to me would be a much bigger deal than eking by the Bengals.  The Cowboys and Steelers game back to back showed me they could be a good team.  I didn't get that same vibe earlier in the season. 

 

As for the Hurts GOAT comment.  I get the snark but save it for PFF who actually made the comment not the dude who said their comment was hyperbole. 🙄

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

 

REBUILDING TEAMS

Next, we’ll take a look at a few veteran quarterbacks with new head coaches and general managers on the way. This is not uncharted territory for Matthew Stafford, who will have his fifth head coach and third general manager in Detroit.

Stafford showed this week exactly why a trade may be unlikely, with his reputation as one of the toughest quarterbacks in the NFL on full display. Stafford has a very high floor at quarterback, and a new regime can sell themselves on the notion that Stafford has been limited by a disastrous organizational situation. They can be the ones to finally tap Stafford’s potential, and at 33 years old, there's plenty of football left. 

 

Nevertheless, you never know if a new head coach and general manager would prefer a fresh start. Stafford has two years remaining on his contract, with a $20 million cap charge in 2021 and a $22.5 in 2022 for an acquiring team. These are very team-friendly terms for anyone looking to trade for Stafford.

 

 

Washington is no stranger to this type of move, because the team already did it with Alex Smith. Smith’s comeback has, of course, been nothing short of spectacular, but he’s not a legitimate answer at quarterback going forward if Washington wants to take the next step. Ron Rivera and this defense may win the lowly NFC East in their first season, which is great in terms of building a new culture in Washington. But it would put them out of reach for any of the top quarterback prospects. They may already be on the outside looking in.

A good 2021 draft class and a healthy Stafford could make Washington an immediate contender. 

 

 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

I’m going to say this: I don’t think a Stafford trade is at all good for this franchise’s ability to build on a strong defense. I think it handicaps is really, really badly from a lot of different points of view.

 

In no way, shape or form do I want to spend our first on him.

 

Having said that... if they do the (in my opinion), short sighted appease the crowd move, then I’d love to see what Stafford can do. He’s a good QB who will make the passing attack much better than it is. 

[86 Snyder]

I don't see anything sustainable about Hurts.  Hes mobile, yeah, moves around really well but its not elite like Lamar or Kyler.  As a passer he has a loooong way to go.

 

He seems like someone who'll have a nice little start to their career and will get clamped up pretty easily once there's a decent amount of tape on him.  

 

I am zero percent bothered by him being in the division, same as I am Daniel Jones.

[Skinsinparadise]

7 minutes ago, 86 Snyder said:

I don't see anything sustainable about Hurts.  Hes mobile, yeah, moves around really well but its not elite like Lamar or Kyler.  As a passer he has a loooong way to go.

 

He seems like someone who'll have a nice little start to their career and will get clamped up pretty easily once there's a decent amount of tape on him.  

 

I am zero percent bothered by him being in the division, same as I am Daniel Jones.

 

Hurts is a wildcard.  But Wentz looks like is oddly sinking fast so Hurts might be an improvement for them.  They typically have a good defense.  Their O line though was ravaged this year with injuries.   But they can bounce back next season.  I have been one of the tougher critics of Daniel Jones but I don't think I can confidently say what we got right now is that much better.  In short, IMO we need an upgrade at QB. 

Edited December 21, 2020 by Skinsinparadise