Rookie QB or Veteran QB for "Next Season"??? (I didn't bump this, but I ended up being wrong anyway....)

[CapsSkins]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

IF we draft someone, I'd honestly much rather have Alex starting than some other vet on the market. First off he already knows the system so continuity helps. Second, he's a smart competitive guy with a great story and I expect all of that would rub off on a rookie as opposed to some journeyman looking to cash out one last time. The more I think about it, the more Trey Lance makes sense. 

 

The problem is Alex's potential availability. I was on the "Start Alex in 2021" train too until this injury, which sort of splashed cold water on that idea that Alex can be relied upon to start 16 games next year. Or even that he comes back instead of retiring.

 

But otherwise, I agree with you. Lance is the guy who, based on reports, is sticking out to me as the most intriguing realistic option.

[Est.1974]

Just now, KDawg said:

Didn’t I explain it? 
 

I swear I am posting stuff and no one is reading it

 

We have a lot of spots we need to spend it on. And that doesn’t account for spending roughly 20% of it on a quarterback AND draft capital that helps fill the roster.

That doesn’t make our cap projections ‘misleading’ though. 

[PartyPosse]

1 minute ago, Thinking Skins said:

Do you think we had an easy one this year? Arizona, Cleveland Baltimore, SF, Pitt, Seattle, Burrow. No cake walk

No cake walk at all, but based on what we've seen, next year's looks much more difficult. We're going up against perhaps the top 5 QBs in the NFL (if Seattle wins the West then we face them). Also, thank god the division is as bad as it is and I honestly don't expect it to be remotely close next year to how awful it was. 

3 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

The problem is Alex's potential availability. I was on the "Start Alex in 2021" train too until this injury, which sort of splashed cold water on that idea that Alex can be relied upon to start 16 games next year. Or even that he comes back instead of retiring.

 

But otherwise, I agree with you. Lance is the guy who, based on reports, is sticking out to me as the most intriguing realistic option.

The issue is who are you going to get to replace him that's decent, durable, not in cap hell and won't cost a large chunk in draft capital? Someone mentioned Fitzpatrick who I love, but does that do anything for the team? Rarely do teams let QBs go unless they don't think they can win with them.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

That doesn’t make our cap projections ‘misleading’ though. 

Sure it does. 
 

Not in the sense that we physically don’t have that space - we would.

 

In the sense that the number is far higher than we will have after we re-sign a few key pieces and acquire a few FA and fill roster holes from expiring contracts. 
 

Then add a Stafford or Dak hit. That space is greatly, if not completely taken. 
 

In essence, it means our window is extremely short. 

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Sure it does. 
 

Not in the sense that we physically don’t have that space - we would.

 

In the sense that the number is far higher than we will have after we re-sign a few key pieces and acquire a few FA and fill roster holes from expiring contracts. 
 

Then add a Stafford or Dak hit. That space is greatly, if not completely taken. 
 

In essence, it means our window is extremely short. 

I don't think thats cap projection as opposed to cap allocation. 

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

I don't think thats cap projection as opposed to cap allocation. 

I mean projection as far as allocation. 
 

The statement that the cap is going to be higher and thus allowing us $90M in space. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I think the plan involves Allen regardless. Smith if he wants to be here. If he retires then I think the plan is mid range vet and rookie.

 

I think a rookie is in the plans regardless and there’s a few guys I think may be big time sleepers. Ahlers, Newman are two among them. 
 

I don’t think this roster is as good as many people currently believe it is. So trading for a vet, giving assets and cap in my opinion is a super gamble.

 

I think they might shoot for a headliner type.  The vibe I get from Keim's segments is its likely a hot burner off season topic there including if Alex returns.   So i am guessing if they make a move it might be aggressive versus lets say take the best Qb who falls in the 3rd round, etc. 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Sure it does. 
 

Not in the sense that we physically don’t have that space - we would.

 

In the sense that the number is far higher than we will have after we re-sign a few key pieces and acquire a few FA and fill roster holes from expiring contracts. 
 

Then add a Stafford or Dak hit. That space is greatly, if not completely taken. 
 

In essence, it means our window is extremely short. 

As a minimum we’ll have 50mil in space.

 

Reports imply the cap will be much higher that that 175m floor. 20m higher, which gets us to 70m in space.

 

Any acquisition of a vet QB like that would be partially offset by a 14m cap ‘gain’ via the release of Smith. 
 

London Collins got an 80mil contract and the first year hit was something absurd like 4mil. 
 

Cap space, we have heaps of it, which isn’t misleading at all. Our actual cash outlay on the other hand is likely to be very significant.

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think they might shoot for a headliner type.  The vibe I get from Keim's segments is its likely a hot burner off season topic there including if Alex returns.   So i am guessing if they make a move it might be aggressive versus lets say take the best Qb who falls in the 3rd round, etc. 

 

The scenario that is currently growing on me, with a lot of room for changes due to the way things shake: Trading up in the first and getting Lance.

 

Sit him as long as needed behind Allen/Smith (if he’s back) and when they inevitably go down, Lance comes in with a gameplan to utilize his legs and make easy throws for a rhythm and let it develop from there. 
 

But hey, it could all change tomorrow if Dwayne goes 33/40 415 yards 3 TD and 0 INT.

 

Stop laughing. 
 

No really, stop laughing

[JSSkinz]

Can someone give me a rough number on AAV against the cap on these players as a total, after we extend /re-sign them?

 

Scherff

Roullier

Allen

Payne

Settle

 

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

As a minimum we’ll have 50mil in space.

 

Reports imply the cap will be much higher that that 175m floor. 20m higher, which gets us to 70m in space.

 

Any acquisition of a vet QB like that would be partially offset by a 14m cap ‘gain’ via the release of Smith. 
 

London Collins got an 80mil contract and the first year hit was something absurd like 4mil. 
 

Cap space, we have heaps of it, which isn’t misleading at all. Our actual cash outlay on the other hand is likely to be very significant.

I think you understood what I was driving at. 
 

Scherff = 10-15?

Stafford = an additional 7-8 from Smith?

Darby = An additional 8-12?

 

Deals coming up for Payne, Allen, McLaurin. 
 

FA signings and allocations.

 

Rookie pool. That $70M is down to 15-20 real quick without the re-signings accounted for. 

3 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

Can someone give me a rough number on AAV against the cap on these players as a total, after we extend /re-sign them?

 

Scherff

Roullier

Allen

Payne

Settle

 

I’m interested in this as well. I don’t know the cost at the moment but it is crucial to the plan. 

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I think you understood what I was driving at. 
 

Scherff = 10-15?

In comparison, Norwell got 5/67m with a first year cap hit of 5m.

 

Zack Martin 6/84m with a first year cap hit of 6m.

 

I think we could re-sign Scherff and Roullier and utilise no more than 10m in 2021 cap space.

[PartyPosse]

12 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

As a minimum we’ll have 50mil in space.

 

Reports imply the cap will be much higher that that 175m floor. 20m higher, which gets us to 70m in space.

 

Any acquisition of a vet QB like that would be partially offset by a 14m cap ‘gain’ via the release of Smith. 
 

London Collins got an 80mil contract and the first year hit was something absurd like 4mil. 
 

Cap space, we have heaps of it, which isn’t misleading at all. Our actual cash outlay on the other hand is likely to be very significant.

It’s probably higher because of the rollover from this year.

[KDawg]

2 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

In comparison, Norwell got 5/67m with a first year cap hit of 5m.

 

Zack Martin 6/84m with a first year cap hit of 6m.

 

I think we could re-sign Scherff and Roullier and utilise no more than 10m in 2021 cap space.

Maybe. But I think 2022 is more of our mission critical window. And that’s the year that matters most to me right now. Though I’m more than welcoming to 2021 being a Lombardi year

[JSSkinz]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I’m interested in this as well. I don’t know the cost at the moment but it is crucial to the plan. 

You make good points so I think the way to look at it is we will have about $72M in cap space with Alex and $87-$92M without him.

 

Those 5 are our core players and they need to be re-signed and being that we can't extend Terry until next year I left him out. It would make more sense to remove that chunk of cap and and work with the more realistic number.

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, PartyPosse said:

It’s probably higher because of the rollover from this year.

The 20m rollover from this year already features in the 50m total.

[JSSkinz]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The 20m rollover from this year already features in the 50m total.

What? 

[Est.1974]

I would say this, in order to be able to preserve much of the current roster through 2021-2024, ideal scenario is we take a QB in 2021 and that player is our starter 2022 onwards on that rookie contract.

2 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

What? 

The space we have left today in 2020 is already included in the cap space number of 50m that is being discussed as being available next year. ie, it includes the rollover.

Edited December 19, 2020 by UK SKINS FAN 74

[Est.1974]

This is where talk of winning in 2021 becomes dangerous. Bad planning, or extreme short term thinking, could screw us over 2022-24. I hope Rivera continues to see that 4 year window. QB contract is so critical to that.

[JSSkinz]

1 minute ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The space we have left today in 2020 is already included in the cap space number of 50m this is being discussed as being available next year. ie, it includes the rollover.

OMG I thought it was excluded, so basically we have no money.

 

Sportac is using $196M as the cap ceiling when coming up with that number so we only have $50M - $65M available ($70M if we defer on Alex), @KDawg is right.

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

OMG I thought it was excluded, so basically we have no money.

 

Sportac is using $196M as the cap ceiling when coming up with that number so we only have $50M - $65M available ($70M if we defer on Alex), @KDawg is right.

The way I read it, we have 145m used in 2021. Against a cap of 175m that gives us 30m in space. Add 20m rollover = 50m in space.

 

If the cap lands at 195m instead, we jump to 70m in space.

 

If we release Smith, that jumps a further 13m to 83m, roughly.

 

Retaining that Smith/Allen as that #1/2 and drafting a QB is clearly the best option. 
 

But we have money. Plenty of it.

 

 

[PartyPosse]

8 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The way I read it, we have 145m used in 2021. Against a cap of 175m that gives us 30m in space. Add 20m rollover = 50m in space.

 

If the cap lands at 195m instead, we jump to 70m in space.

 

If we release Smith, that jumps a further 13m to 83m, roughly.

 

Retaining that Smith/Allen as that #1/2 and drafting a QB is clearly the best option. 
 

But we have money. Plenty of it.

 

 

I imagine we restructure Moses as well. 2023 is the sweet spot as that’s the year we can dump the Collins deal with minimal cap implications. Same with Smith and possibly Fuller. I imagine any deals we have coming will use 2023 as a dumping year. 

[JSSkinz]

14 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

The way I read it, we have 145m used in 2021. Against a cap of 175m that gives us 30m in space. Add 20m rollover = 50m in space.

 

If the cap lands at 195m instead, we jump to 70m in space.

 

If we release Smith, that jumps a further 13m to 83m, roughly.

 

Retaining that Smith/Allen as that #1/2 and drafting a QB is clearly the best option. 
 

But we have money. Plenty of it.

 

 

How does this make sense (2021 estimates from Sportac), if our active contracts next year are roughly $146M but we have $21M rolling over from 2020 and the estimated ceiling in 2021 is $196M then how do we only have $50M available?  I must be missing something.  Where is the rollover cap?

 

Edited December 19, 2020 by JSSkinz

[Est.1974]

Just now, PartyPosse said:

I imagine we restructure Moses as well. 2023 is the sweet spot as that’s the year we can dump the Collins deal with minimal cap implications. Same with Smith and possibly Fuller. I imagine any deals we have coming will use 2023 as a dumping year. 

I think there are always options with the cap. End of the day, we are top 5 in league cap space for 2021. If we have no money, the remaining 85% of the league must be ****ed.

Just now, JSSkinz said:

How does this make sense, if our active contracts next year are roughly $146M but we have $21M rolling over from 2020 and the estimated ceiling is $196M then how do we only have $50M available?  I must be missing something.  Where is the rollover ca

The rollover is included in the top number.

 

175,000,000 + 21,411,281

[PartyPosse]

3 minutes ago, UK SKINS FAN 74 said:

I think there are always options with the cap. End of the day, we are top 5 in league cap space for 2021. If we have no money, the remaining 85% of the league must be ****ed.

 

The rollover is included in the top number.

 

175,000,000 + 21,411,281

I think you guys see a different cap number. Right now it’s no less than 175 but could be up to 195.